All numbers are as of Sunday morning. All numbers are rounded to the nearest third of an inning or at bat.
I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.
ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.
Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.
Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!
Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.
Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.
So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89
Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.
Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41
So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.
Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.
Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all.
Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.
I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.
Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins. What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.
Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.
I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.
ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.
Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.
Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!
Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.
Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.
So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89
Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.
Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41
So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.
Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.
Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all.
Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.
I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.
Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins. What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.
Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.
1 comment:
Just seeing this...well, this has has already changed!
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