Bill's Bold Predictions, 2015

1. Zach Britton strikes out a batter per inning, a big jump from his 7.31 K/9 in 2014, allowing him to remain a top 5 closer, despite a substantial regression to the mean on balls in play.

Originally, I was going to simply write that Britton’s K rate would jump and he’d be an elite reliever. Well, he was actually the #2 RP in our league last year, thanks in large part to a 1.65 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.  A .215 BABIP is likely to repeat itself, even with his unreal groundball tendencies (75% in 2014) and an elite Orioles infield defense, with Hardy and Machado leading the way. That big jump in Ks is coming thanks to a strong swinging strike rate (13.1% , 30^th for relievers), should buoy what was a pedestrian strikeout rate (104^th for relievers). Striking out a batter per inning would mean that Britton is an asset in strikeouts, and he ought to pile up saves again on a competitive Orioles team.

2. Drew Hutchison strikes out 200 batters, en route to a top 20 season.

Hutchison was quietly spectacular, strikeout wise last year. In 185 IP, he struck out 184 batters, good for 8^th best K rate among AL starters. He was SP #42 though, thanks to a gaudy ERA (4.48). He’s still in a tough park for a fly ball pitcher, but Hutchison will build on 2014 and end up as a top 20 SP with over 200 K. I’ll need it, too, given how short it looks like I am on innings and strikeouts. 

3. Brad Boxberger finishes with 30 saves or 110 K.

Managers are fickle things, and a rookie manager like Kevin Cash is even harder to predict. Quite simply, though, Boxberger was spectacular last year in every respect except an extraordinarily high HR/FB rate. I think he either hangs on to the closer job all season, or he is a shutdown reliever in the mold of 2014 Dellin Betances. Last season, Betances was the only one to surpass this mark (135 K), while several other elite relievers came close (Wade Davis at 109, Aroldis Chapman at 106, Boxberger at 104)

4. Chris Sale sets a career high in Ks (227 or more).

Sale was dominant last year, and started using a set of pitches that ought to be less stressful on his elbow and shoulder (more changeups, fewer sliders). If he can match his K rate from last year (10.76 K/9 IP, a career high as a starter), he’ll need to get up to 190 IP, or if he matches my model’s predicted value for him (10.35 K/9). Either way, he’ll need to stay elite and healthy to hit these totals. Making it doubly bold is the fact that he’s missing a start or two in April. Sale pitched 214 innings in 2012 with only 30 starts, so he can do it, but he’ll need health throughout the rest of the season.

5. Hanley Ramirez has over 200 R+RBI.

Last year, only three hitters totaled over 200 R and RBI – Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and Mike Trout. Hanley will join the club this year, capitalizing on a very strong Red Sox lineup, with potentially elite OBP guys in Betts, Pedroia, and Ortiz hitting ahead of him, and solid bats in Napoli and Sandoval hitting behind him. The catch is going to be staying healthy – Hanley has only played in 130+ games once in the last 4 years. Hopefully, moving off of shortstop will help.

BONUS PREDICTIONS!

Jose Ramirez and Carlos Beltran do not finish within 75 places on the player rater.

That’s the difference between Carlos Santana (#76 last year) and Dayan Viciedo (#148). I just have no idea which was it’ll go. I’m convinced someone got screwed in that deal, but I just can’t decide who.

Brad Miller combines for 25 HR+SB and 125 R+RBI to capitalize on being a post-hype sleeper.

Only two shortstops offered this kind of balanced production last year (Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez), and with his main competition hurt to start the year, Miller has the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Hopefully this works out better than last year, when I dropped $11 on Miller to be my starting shortstop. Whoops!

Carlos Santana hits at least .265 with 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Santana was spectacular as a first baseman down the stretch last year, making up for a very rough start. Exclusively a first baseman now, and not penciled in as a DH (where he experienced the typical DH penalty) for most days, big things are ahead for Santana.

Avisail Garcia goes 20 HR/10 SB with a .270 average.

20/10 is basically his pace from 2014, before he went down with an injury. I’m hoping that the reduction in strikeouts this spring (23.2% in 2014, only 14% in spring training this year) will carry over to the regular season, since that is a big bump from his 2014 average of .244.

Cody Allen is a top 3 closer.

Allen was great down the stretch, once the Indians bullpen was sorted out. With tons of strikeouts and a solid Indians team, he’s poised to jump into the elite tier.

So what's everyone's take? Way too bold? Or grocery store salsa bold?