Drew Pomeranz is the most valuable starting
pitcher on the A’s.
This is a big one for me, but I think Pomeranz could juuust sneak in ahead of Gray and Kazmir. Gray’s stuff took a clear step backwards last season, and Kazmir is always a health risk (though he’s been outstanding and healthy looking this spring). Pomeranz was great as a starter last season, with a healthy 24% K rate as a starter, with more ground balls than flyballs and a 12% IFFB rate. With the A’s improving the infield by adding solid defenders like Zobrist, Semien, and Lawrie, and the capacious foul territory of the Coliseum, I like Pomeranz to sport a low BABIP and a nice ERA.
This is a big one for me, but I think Pomeranz could juuust sneak in ahead of Gray and Kazmir. Gray’s stuff took a clear step backwards last season, and Kazmir is always a health risk (though he’s been outstanding and healthy looking this spring). Pomeranz was great as a starter last season, with a healthy 24% K rate as a starter, with more ground balls than flyballs and a 12% IFFB rate. With the A’s improving the infield by adding solid defenders like Zobrist, Semien, and Lawrie, and the capacious foul territory of the Coliseum, I like Pomeranz to sport a low BABIP and a nice ERA.
Albert Pujols somehow hits 33 or more home
runs.
You know how my first one had all sorts of numbers and reason behind it? This has none of that. The numbers, in Pujols’ case, are pretty flat or trending down. His 2014 wasn't a big shift from 2013 in terms of the underlying numbers. Batted ball distance, strikeout rate, and walk rate were only slightly changed. This is entirely a gut/nostalgia call. Pujols hasn't hit more than 30 HR since coming to the AL, but I think he has one last big season before he continues his slide into good but not great territory.
You know how my first one had all sorts of numbers and reason behind it? This has none of that. The numbers, in Pujols’ case, are pretty flat or trending down. His 2014 wasn't a big shift from 2013 in terms of the underlying numbers. Batted ball distance, strikeout rate, and walk rate were only slightly changed. This is entirely a gut/nostalgia call. Pujols hasn't hit more than 30 HR since coming to the AL, but I think he has one last big season before he continues his slide into good but not great territory.
Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP (removing any
primarily RP pitchers from the mix)
I think Hughes can repeat his 2014
season. His BABIP was high (0.324, career
0.300, despite a healthy 10% IFFB rate) and he actually underperformed both his
FIP and his xFIP last season. I’d expect
the K rate to dip a bit, maybe, just maybe, he could keep it up around 8K/9
simply Hughes gets more strikes than anyone.
He led qualified pitchers in first strike percent, zone percent, and
swing rates both inside AND outside the zone.
Michael Saunders finds a home in the
Rodgers Centre and hits 40 HR+SB
Sure, he’s coming off of knee surgery. Sure, he can’t stay healthy and is opening
the season on the DL. I still believe in
his potential, especially now that he is out of Safeco and in a hitter friendly
park with a nice lineup around him. He's finished with a 20-20 season back in 2012, and I think he can match that with a little more power and a little less speed.
Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
The Astros don’t scare anyone, but their
bullpen has improved, meaning that hopefully they can hold on to a few more
leads this season. Gregerson only struck
out 7.3/9 last season, managed a higher 8.82/9 in his career. The underlying numbers from last season don’t
look any different, so I expect him to be up around 8.5 to 9 K/9 this
season. That, combined with his saves
and ERA, will push him into the top 5.
Bonus prediction: Matt Shoemaker gets at least one Cy Young vote.
I had to have had a reason for spending $18 on him, right?
I had to have had a reason for spending $18 on him, right?
1 comment:
Hughes is such a weird pitcher. I know I keep talking about my model. All the time. Kind of endlessly. I'm sorry. But at certain points during the year last year, Hughes effectively broke the model. His first pitch strike rate in particular was so high, that the model predicted he should be walking negative 0.5 batters per nine innings pitched. He also had a predicted strike out rate much, much lower than the actual, but his pound the zone, high contact approach is so unique that it effectively makes him difficult to compare to any other pitcher. Is he a top 12 pitcher going forward? Fucked if I know.
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