1. My pitching staff makes up for sucking at striking people out by coming in first place in Wins. This is more a prediction based on what I NEED to happen than what I actually think WILL happen. I didn't target wins in the draft or anything, because that would be stupid, but I ended up with 6 SPs who tend to eat innings and on the average should get pretty solid run support. My SPs all ranked between 9th and 21st in innings last year, and represent the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Angels, Athletics, and White Sox. Again, I better hope that this happens, because I'm likely to be near the bottom in Ks.
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3. 6 of the guys currently on my roster hit 10 HRs and steal 10 bases. Brantley, Gardner, Zobrist, Jennings, and De Aza should make 5 without too much trouble, although that's no guarantee considering that Zobrist got exactly 10/10 last year, De Aza only hit 8 HRs, and Jennings finished with exactly 10 HRs. If I do get those 5, I'll need 1 of A-rod, Victorino, or Devon Travis to come through for me. Maybe this isn't bold enough, but 7 seems way too bold. I'm essentially betting that 6 out of these 8 guys will be healthy contributors for most of the season.
4. Mike Trout....wait, where is Mike Trout!?!? He's still on my team, right? You mean I traded him to Andrew last year and still didn't win?! NOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Ahh, well, at least I still have Mike Trout-Lite. Make that Extra-Lite. I'm talking about Michael Brantley. My prediction is that Brantley finds a way to somehow, someway, outperform his 2014 roto line in at least ONE category. That might not seem bold to give myself 5 chances to win like that, but Brantley broke out in such a huge way last year that I think it's fair. He slaughtered all his previous career highs by 10 HRs, 28 runs, 24 RBIs, 6 steals, and 39 points in AVG. Every projection system expects major regression in every category. For me to get this, Brantley will need either 21 HRs, 95 runs, 98 RBIs, 24 steals, or a .328 AVG.
5. Adam LaRoche sets a career high in HRs with 34. He hit 26 last year, and 20 the year before, so I think this is sufficiently bold. He is going to love hitting in The Cell.
5 comments:
I'm calling grocery store salsa bold on the Donaldson prediction. He's moving to an elite lineup and a much better park, and had 29 HR, 93 R, and 98 RBI last year. 30 HR, 100 R, and 100 RBI doesn't seem like much of a jump to me. If you look at the Oakland and Rogers Centre park factors from Fangraphs, that 29 HR total would be expected to be ~33 in Toronto. Also, he stole 8 bases last year, and hit .301 in 2013, so neither 10 bases or a .280 average are way out of reach.
Finally, apparently I'm extremely high on Donaldson. Maybe we should talk a trade.
Fair points. I'm extremely high on him as well, but after going 0/10 the last 2 years I was trying to be a bit more realistic.
When he was going to bat 2nd, I was just going to predict 30/100/100. I maintain that it's extremely rare to get 300 RBIs batting 2nd. With him now appearing to bat 5th, I wanted to add a couple more outs because I think it's near impossible for a 5-hitter to score 100 runs, especially with Toronto's lower half being terrible.
Anyway, I'll think about a bolder revision.
Wow, now there's a bold statement:
"I maintain that it's extremely rare to get *300* RBIs batting 2nd."
Meant to say *100, of course.
One option would be to make it 30 HR, .280, and 200+ R and RBI. I did something similar with my Hanley prediction, and that'd take some of the impact of batting order out of the mix.
Yeah, that sounds pretty good. I'll make that change. 30 HR and 200 R+RBI didn't seem bold enough, but I think adding in the .280 AVG does the trick.
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