I'm writing this while sitting down for Red Sox opening day. There've been a few innings of AL ball around the league but I think that's OK.
1) Dustin Pedroia continues his early pace and hits 648 HRs. But I would settle for something close to his 2012 numbers. I expect something like.300/15 HR/20 SB with 100 runs. No great statistical info analysis to back this up - it's what he's capable of and I believe he played injured for all of 2014. My actual prediction is that Pedroia finishes as a top 3 2B by Player Rater.
2) George Springer accumulates 55 HR + SB. There's not a whole lot to say here. I'm counting on him to steal more, but even if he only gets 15 SB this is a total he could potentially reach.
3) Shane Greene accumulates more PR value than any other SP drafted for $3 or less. The main competition here are Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon, Pomeranz, Ervin Santana (motherf%&$er), Aaron Sanchez, Duffy, Chen, Masterson, House, Gallardo, Bauer, and Happ. Bauer and Pomeranz make me the most nervous, but I'm going for it anyway. FanGraphs has been all over Greene this off-season, including a (somewhat shallow for Fangraphs) write-up that came out today. His track record in the majors is short but he put up potentially repeatable numbers with great breaking stuff, and I love the transition from Yankee Stadium to Detroit to help his HR rate, and the upgrade from Jeter to Iglesias behind him given his high GB rate. Even if his K% regresses a bit, which is a reasonable expectation, he should still be very valuable.
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF by PR. Martin was #15 in 2014 and Calhoun was #18. Calhoun missed roughly 100 ABs with an injury, and probably would have finished 2nd in runs if he hadn't. He's never gonna accumulate a ton of RBI, and won't be asked to steal a lot, but if he can keep up his OBP and power in front of Trout and Pujols he'll see easy improvement. Martin is batting lead-off to start the year - even if his rate stats and power don't improve at all in his age 27 season, he should accumulate a ton more Rs and I think will steal more than he did last year. OF is a little shallow this year it seems, and a lot of the guys who finished ahead of them in 2014 could reasonably be expected to regress.
DUSTIN PEDROIA 2nd HR!!! I really feel like I'm cheating now.
5) Mike Napoli hits 25 HRs and accumulate more PR value than he has in either of the last two seasons. The number he'll have to beat from 2013 is 4.79. There are a lot of sobering trends in the last couple seasons for Nap, He's getting old and has been beat up, His .ISO and fly-ball numbers trended downwards badly last year. But I'm a big believer in health, and the new Red Sox lineup. He underwent bimaxillary reconstruction for sleep apnea in the offseason (and still has no feeling in his lips!), and his hips actually got BETTER since being treated for avascular necrosis. He was so exhausted last season he almost retired but tried surgery instead. He's on the tail end of his career but I'm expecting a late resurgence and a return to 2013 levels of value.
6 comments:
The Pedroia one is just hilarious given his start to the season.
Holy god, the description of Napoli's surgery is horrifying. They broke his upper and lower jaw AND MOVED THEM. Jesus.
Love the Calhoun and Martin prediction. Choo averaged 4.42 PAs/g when batting 1st last year, while Martin average 3.76 PAs/g overall. Applying that ratio to Martin's line last year bumps him up to 8 HRs, 80 runs, 47 RBIs, and 36 steals, to say nothing of the fact that he'll have better hitters behind him and could improve his skills at the prime age of 27.
Man, I hate being early on guys. I thought Martin would hit leadoff in 2013, then again in 2014, and was wrong both times. Kinda like when I blew $18 on Encarnacion in 2011.
The Pedroia pick looks great. He's turning on inside fastballs, and that bodes unbelievably well once he gets back to Fenway.
Also, I loved seeing Hanley Ramirez swing the bat on those HRs - he sure reminds me of Manny.
There was a call into WEEI the other day that I had the fortune to hear, the guy said he was calling to talk about Hanley and started to talk about how his swing was so perfect and how it looked just like Manny's...and how it meant that he was on steroids.
I try not to listen to the radio here.
Oh dear. Oh dear sports radio. When I'm up in NH for work I like to listen every once in awhile, but I think the Sox really bring out the crazies.
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