Sunday, October 4, 2015
Congrats to Bill
Two in a row! Only one league member has ever won two in a row, putting you in elite company. Pretty solid second half dominance after heavy turnover via trades in July and August. Now you get to go for the threepeat. Nice job.
Monday, September 28, 2015
How Andrew can win
It isn't likely, but Andrew does still have a path to victory, in part because we're going head to head in several categories, As of Monday morning, by lead is 7.5 points, but if everything breaks just right for Andrew, I see up to 10.5 net points for him (factoring in losses from me, and gains for him).
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
I am up 23 runs on Andrew, so that should be out of reach, especially with teams starting to sit players this last week of the season. Also, Andrew is leading in HR, so he has no points to gain there, and I have a 12 HR lead on Caleb which should remain safe. Finally, RBI. Andrew is 18 RBI behind me. All season long, there has been one week where he had 19 RBI more than me - with fewer starts likely, I think that is out of reach as well.
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
| Bill | Andrew | |
| R | 23 | -23 |
| HR | 12 | NA |
| RBI | 18 | -18 |
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| AVG | 0.0012 | 0.0024 |
| WHIP | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| ERA | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| K | 112 | 8 |
| SV | 8 | T |
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| SB | 1, 3 | 2, 3 |
| W | T, 2 | T |
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
Monday, June 8, 2015
I think I made a huge mistake
I just traded Carlos Correa for Steven Souza. Now I see articles like this one saying that Correa is going to hit 0.260, with 7 hr and 15 sb to go with 70 r+rbi. According to Bill, Eric Karabell just pegged him as the #6 SS in MIXED leagues.
So, wise and powerful members of Durham WHAT, did I make a huge mistake by trading Correa so quickly?
So, wise and powerful members of Durham WHAT, did I make a huge mistake by trading Correa so quickly?
Monday, May 4, 2015
One Month In: Bold Prediction Update
We're about a month into the season now (ESPN says 11.2% of the season) and some clear trends are emerging. My pitching stinks worse than a tire fire at a waste water treatment plant. The Red Sox starters are almost as bad as mine. Taylor already has more saves than ESPN predicted for him for the entire year. Given we're a month in, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at how everyone's bold predictions are doing.
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Fun with Early Season Numbers
All numbers are as of Sunday morning. All numbers are rounded to the nearest third of an inning or at bat.
I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.
ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.
Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.
Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!
Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.
Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.
So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89
Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.
Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41
So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.
Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.
Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all.
Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.
I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.
Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins. What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.
Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.
I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.
ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.
Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.
Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!
Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.
Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.
So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89
Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.
Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41
So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.
Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.
Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all.
Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.
I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.
Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins. What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.
Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Combined Bold predictions and discussion
I thought it might be nice to have all the bold predictions in one spot, to make it easier to have a discussion about all of them.
Bill:
1) Zach Britton is a top 5 closer and >9 K/9
2) Drew Hutchison 200K, top 20 SP
3) Brad Boxberger 30 SV OR 110K
4) Chris Sale >227K
5) Hanley Ramirez > 200 R+RBI
Andrew:
1) Drew Pomeranz is #1 A's pitcher
2) Albert Pujols >33HR
3) Phil Hughes top 12 SP
4) Michael Saunders >40 HR + SB
5) Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Caleb:
1) Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
2) George Springer >55 HR + SB
3) Shane Greene is the best $3 pitcher
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin top 10 OF
5) Mike Napoli hits 25HR at has Player Rater >4.79
Luke:
1) Team finishes #1 in W
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
Bill:
1) Zach Britton is a top 5 closer and >9 K/9
2) Drew Hutchison 200K, top 20 SP
3) Brad Boxberger 30 SV OR 110K
4) Chris Sale >227K
5) Hanley Ramirez > 200 R+RBI
Andrew:
1) Drew Pomeranz is #1 A's pitcher
2) Albert Pujols >33HR
3) Phil Hughes top 12 SP
4) Michael Saunders >40 HR + SB
5) Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Caleb:
1) Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
2) George Springer >55 HR + SB
3) Shane Greene is the best $3 pitcher
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin top 10 OF
5) Mike Napoli hits 25HR at has Player Rater >4.79
Luke:
1) Team finishes #1 in W
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
The Last of the Zeroes
Two days in (well, really a day and a half with the short slate of games on Tuesday), . Just like some writers track who the last player to draw a walk is, I thought it'd be fun to track the zeroes in specific categories.
To start off, I'm going to throw out strikeouts. Everyone picked up a strikeout on opening day, and it doesn't seem meaningful to parse out times there.
Also, we're all on the board for RBI! Kate is bringing up the back of the pack here with 1, and I believe she was the last person to get on the board there, with Marcus Semien picking up a 4th inning RBI single in a 10 PM game on opening day.
Kate is also the last woman standing with a zero in runs and HR. She has Arcia and Mauer going this afternoon, so either of those could change quickly if Anibal Sanchez throws a meatball.
With stolen bases, both Mark and Spencer are holding steady at zero. ESPN had both fairly close to the top of the standings in the category, so that isn't cause for concern. Also, the leader in the category has all of one stolen base, so it isn't like there's a huge gap opening already.
On to the pitching categories, where the discrete nature of many of the stats makes it a lot more interesting.
Andrew and Caleb are both sans wins at this point, but Andrew has three pitchers going today. To paraphrase him, albeit with much more colorful language, this run of starters will give him an idea whether his pitching be ok, a small problem like burning a pot on the stove, or a big problem, like the Door to Hell. Caleb has no one going today, and Shane Greene and Daniel Norris going tomorrow, so he's my pick to be stuck at 0 the longest.
Finally, we get to saves. Taylor, Kate, and Luke are all still waiting on their first save. Of the three, Luke is the only one with two healthy closers, and Kate has Betances (and Uehara, once he's healthy). Taylor snagged Mujica off the wire, so he at least has a short term option. He might be the last one standing at zero here, since the Red Sox offense has been looking great and the Phillies aren't exactly good at baseball. Long term, this looks like a huge area of weakness, too; once Uehara is healthy, Taylor is down to no closers at all.
To start off, I'm going to throw out strikeouts. Everyone picked up a strikeout on opening day, and it doesn't seem meaningful to parse out times there.
Also, we're all on the board for RBI! Kate is bringing up the back of the pack here with 1, and I believe she was the last person to get on the board there, with Marcus Semien picking up a 4th inning RBI single in a 10 PM game on opening day.
Kate is also the last woman standing with a zero in runs and HR. She has Arcia and Mauer going this afternoon, so either of those could change quickly if Anibal Sanchez throws a meatball.
With stolen bases, both Mark and Spencer are holding steady at zero. ESPN had both fairly close to the top of the standings in the category, so that isn't cause for concern. Also, the leader in the category has all of one stolen base, so it isn't like there's a huge gap opening already.
On to the pitching categories, where the discrete nature of many of the stats makes it a lot more interesting.
Andrew and Caleb are both sans wins at this point, but Andrew has three pitchers going today. To paraphrase him, albeit with much more colorful language, this run of starters will give him an idea whether his pitching be ok, a small problem like burning a pot on the stove, or a big problem, like the Door to Hell. Caleb has no one going today, and Shane Greene and Daniel Norris going tomorrow, so he's my pick to be stuck at 0 the longest.
Finally, we get to saves. Taylor, Kate, and Luke are all still waiting on their first save. Of the three, Luke is the only one with two healthy closers, and Kate has Betances (and Uehara, once he's healthy). Taylor snagged Mujica off the wire, so he at least has a short term option. He might be the last one standing at zero here, since the Red Sox offense has been looking great and the Phillies aren't exactly good at baseball. Long term, this looks like a huge area of weakness, too; once Uehara is healthy, Taylor is down to no closers at all.
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
one last bonus prediction: Mike Moustakas!
One last bonus prediction that I accidentally cut out. Mike Moustakas will have keeper value, either in trade or for me at the end of the season. His babip will return to reasonable levels, which combined with improving k and bb rates will make him keep able.
Luke's literally and figuratively too-late bold predictions (EDITED)
1. My pitching staff makes up for sucking at striking people out by coming in first place in Wins. This is more a prediction based on what I NEED to happen than what I actually think WILL happen. I didn't target wins in the draft or anything, because that would be stupid, but I ended up with 6 SPs who tend to eat innings and on the average should get pretty solid run support. My SPs all ranked between 9th and 21st in innings last year, and represent the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Angels, Athletics, and White Sox. Again, I better hope that this happens, because I'm likely to be near the bottom in Ks.
2.
3. 6 of the guys currently on my roster hit 10 HRs and steal 10 bases. Brantley, Gardner, Zobrist, Jennings, and De Aza should make 5 without too much trouble, although that's no guarantee considering that Zobrist got exactly 10/10 last year, De Aza only hit 8 HRs, and Jennings finished with exactly 10 HRs. If I do get those 5, I'll need 1 of A-rod, Victorino, or Devon Travis to come through for me. Maybe this isn't bold enough, but 7 seems way too bold. I'm essentially betting that 6 out of these 8 guys will be healthy contributors for most of the season.
4. Mike Trout....wait, where is Mike Trout!?!? He's still on my team, right? You mean I traded him to Andrew last year and still didn't win?! NOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Ahh, well, at least I still have Mike Trout-Lite. Make that Extra-Lite. I'm talking about Michael Brantley. My prediction is that Brantley finds a way to somehow, someway, outperform his 2014 roto line in at least ONE category. That might not seem bold to give myself 5 chances to win like that, but Brantley broke out in such a huge way last year that I think it's fair. He slaughtered all his previous career highs by 10 HRs, 28 runs, 24 RBIs, 6 steals, and 39 points in AVG. Every projection system expects major regression in every category. For me to get this, Brantley will need either 21 HRs, 95 runs, 98 RBIs, 24 steals, or a .328 AVG.
5. Adam LaRoche sets a career high in HRs with 34. He hit 26 last year, and 20 the year before, so I think this is sufficiently bold. He is going to love hitting in The Cell.
Monday, April 6, 2015
Caleb's technically-too-late bold predictions
I'm writing this while sitting down for Red Sox opening day. There've been a few innings of AL ball around the league but I think that's OK.
1) Dustin Pedroia continues his early pace and hits 648 HRs. But I would settle for something close to his 2012 numbers. I expect something like.300/15 HR/20 SB with 100 runs. No great statistical info analysis to back this up - it's what he's capable of and I believe he played injured for all of 2014. My actual prediction is that Pedroia finishes as a top 3 2B by Player Rater.
2) George Springer accumulates 55 HR + SB. There's not a whole lot to say here. I'm counting on him to steal more, but even if he only gets 15 SB this is a total he could potentially reach.
3) Shane Greene accumulates more PR value than any other SP drafted for $3 or less. The main competition here are Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon, Pomeranz, Ervin Santana (motherf%&$er), Aaron Sanchez, Duffy, Chen, Masterson, House, Gallardo, Bauer, and Happ. Bauer and Pomeranz make me the most nervous, but I'm going for it anyway. FanGraphs has been all over Greene this off-season, including a (somewhat shallow for Fangraphs) write-up that came out today. His track record in the majors is short but he put up potentially repeatable numbers with great breaking stuff, and I love the transition from Yankee Stadium to Detroit to help his HR rate, and the upgrade from Jeter to Iglesias behind him given his high GB rate. Even if his K% regresses a bit, which is a reasonable expectation, he should still be very valuable.
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF by PR. Martin was #15 in 2014 and Calhoun was #18. Calhoun missed roughly 100 ABs with an injury, and probably would have finished 2nd in runs if he hadn't. He's never gonna accumulate a ton of RBI, and won't be asked to steal a lot, but if he can keep up his OBP and power in front of Trout and Pujols he'll see easy improvement. Martin is batting lead-off to start the year - even if his rate stats and power don't improve at all in his age 27 season, he should accumulate a ton more Rs and I think will steal more than he did last year. OF is a little shallow this year it seems, and a lot of the guys who finished ahead of them in 2014 could reasonably be expected to regress.
DUSTIN PEDROIA 2nd HR!!! I really feel like I'm cheating now.
5) Mike Napoli hits 25 HRs and accumulate more PR value than he has in either of the last two seasons. The number he'll have to beat from 2013 is 4.79. There are a lot of sobering trends in the last couple seasons for Nap, He's getting old and has been beat up, His .ISO and fly-ball numbers trended downwards badly last year. But I'm a big believer in health, and the new Red Sox lineup. He underwent bimaxillary reconstruction for sleep apnea in the offseason (and still has no feeling in his lips!), and his hips actually got BETTER since being treated for avascular necrosis. He was so exhausted last season he almost retired but tried surgery instead. He's on the tail end of his career but I'm expecting a late resurgence and a return to 2013 levels of value.
1) Dustin Pedroia continues his early pace and hits 648 HRs. But I would settle for something close to his 2012 numbers. I expect something like.300/15 HR/20 SB with 100 runs. No great statistical info analysis to back this up - it's what he's capable of and I believe he played injured for all of 2014. My actual prediction is that Pedroia finishes as a top 3 2B by Player Rater.
2) George Springer accumulates 55 HR + SB. There's not a whole lot to say here. I'm counting on him to steal more, but even if he only gets 15 SB this is a total he could potentially reach.
3) Shane Greene accumulates more PR value than any other SP drafted for $3 or less. The main competition here are Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon, Pomeranz, Ervin Santana (motherf%&$er), Aaron Sanchez, Duffy, Chen, Masterson, House, Gallardo, Bauer, and Happ. Bauer and Pomeranz make me the most nervous, but I'm going for it anyway. FanGraphs has been all over Greene this off-season, including a (somewhat shallow for Fangraphs) write-up that came out today. His track record in the majors is short but he put up potentially repeatable numbers with great breaking stuff, and I love the transition from Yankee Stadium to Detroit to help his HR rate, and the upgrade from Jeter to Iglesias behind him given his high GB rate. Even if his K% regresses a bit, which is a reasonable expectation, he should still be very valuable.
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF by PR. Martin was #15 in 2014 and Calhoun was #18. Calhoun missed roughly 100 ABs with an injury, and probably would have finished 2nd in runs if he hadn't. He's never gonna accumulate a ton of RBI, and won't be asked to steal a lot, but if he can keep up his OBP and power in front of Trout and Pujols he'll see easy improvement. Martin is batting lead-off to start the year - even if his rate stats and power don't improve at all in his age 27 season, he should accumulate a ton more Rs and I think will steal more than he did last year. OF is a little shallow this year it seems, and a lot of the guys who finished ahead of them in 2014 could reasonably be expected to regress.
DUSTIN PEDROIA 2nd HR!!! I really feel like I'm cheating now.
5) Mike Napoli hits 25 HRs and accumulate more PR value than he has in either of the last two seasons. The number he'll have to beat from 2013 is 4.79. There are a lot of sobering trends in the last couple seasons for Nap, He's getting old and has been beat up, His .ISO and fly-ball numbers trended downwards badly last year. But I'm a big believer in health, and the new Red Sox lineup. He underwent bimaxillary reconstruction for sleep apnea in the offseason (and still has no feeling in his lips!), and his hips actually got BETTER since being treated for avascular necrosis. He was so exhausted last season he almost retired but tried surgery instead. He's on the tail end of his career but I'm expecting a late resurgence and a return to 2013 levels of value.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Andrew's BOLD predictions
Drew Pomeranz is the most valuable starting
pitcher on the A’s.
This is a big one for me, but I think Pomeranz could juuust sneak in ahead of Gray and Kazmir. Gray’s stuff took a clear step backwards last season, and Kazmir is always a health risk (though he’s been outstanding and healthy looking this spring). Pomeranz was great as a starter last season, with a healthy 24% K rate as a starter, with more ground balls than flyballs and a 12% IFFB rate. With the A’s improving the infield by adding solid defenders like Zobrist, Semien, and Lawrie, and the capacious foul territory of the Coliseum, I like Pomeranz to sport a low BABIP and a nice ERA.
This is a big one for me, but I think Pomeranz could juuust sneak in ahead of Gray and Kazmir. Gray’s stuff took a clear step backwards last season, and Kazmir is always a health risk (though he’s been outstanding and healthy looking this spring). Pomeranz was great as a starter last season, with a healthy 24% K rate as a starter, with more ground balls than flyballs and a 12% IFFB rate. With the A’s improving the infield by adding solid defenders like Zobrist, Semien, and Lawrie, and the capacious foul territory of the Coliseum, I like Pomeranz to sport a low BABIP and a nice ERA.
Albert Pujols somehow hits 33 or more home
runs.
You know how my first one had all sorts of numbers and reason behind it? This has none of that. The numbers, in Pujols’ case, are pretty flat or trending down. His 2014 wasn't a big shift from 2013 in terms of the underlying numbers. Batted ball distance, strikeout rate, and walk rate were only slightly changed. This is entirely a gut/nostalgia call. Pujols hasn't hit more than 30 HR since coming to the AL, but I think he has one last big season before he continues his slide into good but not great territory.
You know how my first one had all sorts of numbers and reason behind it? This has none of that. The numbers, in Pujols’ case, are pretty flat or trending down. His 2014 wasn't a big shift from 2013 in terms of the underlying numbers. Batted ball distance, strikeout rate, and walk rate were only slightly changed. This is entirely a gut/nostalgia call. Pujols hasn't hit more than 30 HR since coming to the AL, but I think he has one last big season before he continues his slide into good but not great territory.
Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP (removing any
primarily RP pitchers from the mix)
I think Hughes can repeat his 2014
season. His BABIP was high (0.324, career
0.300, despite a healthy 10% IFFB rate) and he actually underperformed both his
FIP and his xFIP last season. I’d expect
the K rate to dip a bit, maybe, just maybe, he could keep it up around 8K/9
simply Hughes gets more strikes than anyone.
He led qualified pitchers in first strike percent, zone percent, and
swing rates both inside AND outside the zone.
Michael Saunders finds a home in the
Rodgers Centre and hits 40 HR+SB
Sure, he’s coming off of knee surgery. Sure, he can’t stay healthy and is opening
the season on the DL. I still believe in
his potential, especially now that he is out of Safeco and in a hitter friendly
park with a nice lineup around him. He's finished with a 20-20 season back in 2012, and I think he can match that with a little more power and a little less speed.
Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
The Astros don’t scare anyone, but their
bullpen has improved, meaning that hopefully they can hold on to a few more
leads this season. Gregerson only struck
out 7.3/9 last season, managed a higher 8.82/9 in his career. The underlying numbers from last season don’t
look any different, so I expect him to be up around 8.5 to 9 K/9 this
season. That, combined with his saves
and ERA, will push him into the top 5.
Bonus prediction: Matt Shoemaker gets at least one Cy Young vote.
I had to have had a reason for spending $18 on him, right?
I had to have had a reason for spending $18 on him, right?
Bill's Bold Predictions, 2015
1. Zach Britton strikes out a batter per inning, a big jump
from his 7.31 K/9 in 2014, allowing him to remain a top 5 closer, despite a
substantial regression to the mean on balls in play.
Originally, I was going to simply write that Britton’s K
rate would jump and he’d be an elite reliever. Well, he was actually the #2 RP
in our league last year, thanks in large part to a 1.65 ERA and a 0.90
WHIP. A .215 BABIP is likely to repeat
itself, even with his unreal groundball tendencies (75% in 2014) and an elite
Orioles infield defense, with Hardy and Machado leading the way. That big jump
in Ks is coming thanks to a strong swinging strike rate (13.1% , 30th
for relievers), should buoy what was a pedestrian strikeout rate (104th
for relievers). Striking out a batter per inning would mean that Britton is an
asset in strikeouts, and he ought to pile up saves again on a competitive Orioles
team.
2. Drew Hutchison strikes out 200 batters, en route to a top
20 season.
Hutchison was quietly spectacular, strikeout wise last year.
In 185 IP, he struck out 184 batters, good for 8th best K rate among
AL starters. He was SP #42 though, thanks to a gaudy ERA (4.48). He’s still in
a tough park for a fly ball pitcher, but Hutchison will build on 2014 and end
up as a top 20 SP with over 200 K. I’ll need it, too, given how short it looks
like I am on innings and strikeouts.
3. Brad Boxberger finishes with 30 saves or 110 K.
Managers are fickle things, and a rookie manager like Kevin
Cash is even harder to predict. Quite simply, though, Boxberger was spectacular
last year in every respect except an extraordinarily high HR/FB rate. I think
he either hangs on to the closer job all season, or he is a shutdown reliever
in the mold of 2014 Dellin Betances. Last season, Betances was the only one to
surpass this mark (135 K), while several other elite relievers came close (Wade
Davis at 109, Aroldis Chapman at 106, Boxberger at 104)
4. Chris Sale sets a career high in Ks (227 or more).
Sale was dominant last year, and started using a set of
pitches that ought to be less stressful on his elbow and shoulder (more changeups,
fewer sliders). If he can match his K rate from last year (10.76 K/9 IP, a
career high as a starter), he’ll need to get up to 190 IP, or if he matches my
model’s predicted value for him (10.35 K/9). Either way, he’ll need to stay
elite and healthy to hit these totals. Making it doubly bold is the fact that he’s
missing a start or two in April. Sale pitched 214 innings in 2012 with only 30
starts, so he can do it, but he’ll need health throughout the rest of the
season.
5. Hanley Ramirez has over 200 R+RBI.
Last year, only three hitters totaled over 200 R and RBI –
Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and Mike Trout. Hanley will join the club this
year, capitalizing on a very strong Red Sox lineup, with potentially elite OBP
guys in Betts, Pedroia, and Ortiz hitting ahead of him, and solid bats in
Napoli and Sandoval hitting behind him. The catch is going to be
staying healthy – Hanley has only played in 130+ games once in the last 4
years. Hopefully, moving off of shortstop will help.
BONUS PREDICTIONS!
Jose Ramirez and
Carlos Beltran do not finish within 75 places on the player rater.
That’s the difference between Carlos Santana (#76 last year)
and Dayan Viciedo (#148). I just have no idea which was it’ll go. I’m convinced
someone got screwed in that deal, but I just can’t decide who.
Brad Miller combines for 25 HR+SB and 125 R+RBI to
capitalize on being a post-hype sleeper.
Only two shortstops offered this kind of balanced production
last year (Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez), and with his main competition hurt to
start the year, Miller has the opportunity to take the job and run with it.
Hopefully this works out better than last year, when I dropped $11 on Miller to be my starting shortstop. Whoops!
Carlos Santana hits at least .265 with 30 HR and 100 RBI.
Santana was spectacular as a first baseman down the stretch
last year, making up for a very rough start. Exclusively a first baseman now,
and not penciled in as a DH (where he experienced the typical DH penalty) for
most days, big things are ahead for Santana.
Avisail Garcia goes
20 HR/10 SB with a .270 average.
20/10 is basically his pace from 2014, before he went down
with an injury. I’m hoping that the reduction in strikeouts this spring (23.2%
in 2014, only 14% in spring training this year) will carry over to the regular
season, since that is a big bump from his 2014 average of .244.
Cody Allen is a top 3 closer.
Allen was great down the stretch, once the Indians bullpen
was sorted out. With tons of strikeouts and a solid Indians team, he’s poised to jump
into the elite tier.
So what's everyone's take? Way too bold? Or grocery store salsa bold?
So what's everyone's take? Way too bold? Or grocery store salsa bold?
Saturday, March 28, 2015
Danny Salazar: Perpetual Disappointment
We have our first, high priced disappointment of the draft - Danny Salazar who has been optioned to AAA in a surprising move. It seems only appropriate that Salazar is our first big disappointment of the season, given that he did essentially the same thing last year. After a very strong performance down the stretch in 2013 (19 K in 15 IP making spot starts) and an entire preseason of hype, I kept Salazar as a FA keeper for $10. Coming out of the gate, he struggled (5.55 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 35 IP) and was sent down to AAA, despite excellent strikeout rates (41 K, good for 10.3 K/9). Unfortunately, a roster crunch meant that I had to cut him and after floating on waivers for awhile, Taylor snapped him up. Taylor as rewarded with excellent pitching down the stretch (45 K : 9 BB in 43 IP, 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP). After said very strong performance down the stretch and an entire preseason of hype, Taylor drafted Salazar for $12.
The important question now is, who will pick up Salazar, get a good half season of starts, then be sucked in to keeping or drafting him next year? And whoever it is, they should change their team name to Danny Salazar Ourobos.
The important question now is, who will pick up Salazar, get a good half season of starts, then be sucked in to keeping or drafting him next year? And whoever it is, they should change their team name to Danny Salazar Ourobos.
Friday, March 27, 2015
Bryan Bruxton
I got a little carried away stealing a morsel from Andrew and drafted a guy that doesn't really fit my roster. I don't have the depth to sit on a prospect who may not be up until later this year or may simply be a great keeper. But I'd hate to drop Buxton and kill his keeper value, so he's on the market if anyone wants to stash the league's top prospect. I'd like to add to my offensive depth but will consider any active player.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Favorite and least favorite picks by price
Seeing as how we often focus on picks by team, I thought I would look at picks by different price windows, just to mix things up. I'll chose a hitter and a pitcher where I can.
Studs: $30+
Hitter: I really like Adrian Beltre at $31. Donaldson, the top 3B, went for $39, and while Beltre might not match Donaldson in HR, Beltre is well ahead of Donaldson in batting average. If the Rangers offense bounces back the way it is expected to, I could see Beltre matching or beating Donaldson in 4 out of 5 categories for 3/4ths of the price.
Pitcher
There's only one pitcher that qualifies, and Chris Sale at $35 is quite a bit for a pitcher who has never made more than 30 starts and only once thrown more than 200 innings. When Chris Sale is pitching, he is outstanding, so if Bill can piece together a few OK starts from the wire, he'll be fine (and it's probably easier to find decent pitching early in the season when breakout pitchers are still unidentified and offense is down on the whole).
Dishonorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury at $34 is a hell of a lot to pay for a guy who tends to miss time and whose value is based mainly in stolen bases.
Keeper: I feel the need to mention Jose Reyes. At $30, he seems way over priced. Taylor must be counting on a thumping Blue Jays lineup to push Reyes to 100+ runs. He's a fairly substantial drag at RBI, which is not what you want in a $30 keeper.
All Stars: $20-$29
Hitter: I'll cop out here and name a few. I like a lot of the hitters in this tier. Ortiz at $24, Longoria at $23, Kyle Seager at $24, and Pablo Sandoval at $20 are all solid deals. There's nothing spectacular about any of these picks, but they are all solid values for
Pitcher: Jeff Samardzija at $20 is a nice pickup. Even if he regresses some on his walk and home run rates, $20 is about right, and it's a rare pitcher pick in this price range with upside.
Dishonorable mention: I'll rule out Alex Cobb, since it hardly seems fair to give Bill a hard time about a player that got hurt after he was drafted. Instead, I'll turn and focus on myself. This tier had a few overpriced guys (Hanley was a bit rich, Fielder and Pujols are counting on health), but Cespedes at $28 is quite an overpay. I'm counting on him to bounce back to his power levels of two years ago while keeping the batting average and counting stats of last year. I may get some of those, but I really need all of them to happen to make Cespedes worth $28.
Plus Starters: $15-$19:
Hitters: Again, there's a lot to like in this tier. As Bill mentioned, Kinsler at $19 is a great pick considering where other 2B went (Altuve was kept at $16, Cano at $30, Kipnis and Pedroia drafted at $18 and $19). another guy I like here is McCann. He's a reliable power source at catcher, and given how much Gattis went for, he's a solid deal.
Pitchers: This seemed to be the tier for a lot of closers. Roberston ($18), Street ($15), Perkins ($16), and Britton ($14, just outside my completely arbitrary cutoff) are all about right in terms of cost. My favorite pitcher here is Matt Shoemaker at $18. He's going to finish in the top 5 for Cy Young, and will be an outstanding keeper for next season.
Kidding. I do like two of starters at the bottom of the tier- Gray and Sanchez are strong bounceback candidates, and could turn a small profit. All in all, there's nothing too flashy, pitching wise, but a lot of reasonable deals.
Dishonorable mention: It has to be Shoemaker. I painting myself into a corner here by missing out on ALL of the closers listed above, and needed to spend the money somewhere. My draft board was insanely high on Shoemaker ($16.10), but I ended up in a bidding war with Bill hwen my money would have been better spent on guys like Cecil and Boxberger, particularly Boxberger as a hedge for McGee.
Starters: $10-$14:
Hitters: Bogaerts at $12 makes for an excellent upside pick at shortstop. Odor at $12 is another solid infield pick. My favorite here might be Oswaldo Arcia at $11. Huge power upside there.
Pitchers: Salazar at $12 is risky, but has a lot of upside. I also like Pineda at $13 and McHugh at $13 as pitchers that could be outstanding at a reasonable price. Britton at $14 is my pick, though. His stuff is outstanding (check out the whiff rate and zone rates for last year- ) and he's closing on what looks to be a solid Orioles team.
Dishonorable mention: The catching duo of Wieters and Perez at $12 and $14 shares the award for this tier. Too much risk, not enough production relative to the much, much cheaper lower tier of catchers. Both have injury risk (Perez from the INSANE number of games he caught last year, and Wieters is recovering from Tommy John surgery), and just aren't worth the price.
Super subs: $5-$9
Hitters: Joe Mauer at $9 provides serious batting average upside. It's hard to believe just how fast he has fallen. Just take a look at his prices over the previous 5 seasons ($21, $17 (keeper), $17, $25, $32). Marcus Semien might be the best pick here. He's only $9, can play 2B, 3B, and will gain SS eligibility early this year. His 2014 line looks worse than a limited stint in 2013, but Semien took a step forward in all the underlying numbers, halving his whiff rate and increasing his walk rate. The 27.5 K% from last year looks ugly, but the underlying numbers and his minor league numbers don't suggest a high strikeout player. Semien could hit 0.265/15HR/10SB, while plahying three positions. That's roughly (Pun intended!) what I am hoping to get out of Odor, without the position flexibility AND for a few bucks more.
Pitchers: Boxberger is the guy here. As Bill said, his numbers last season were insane and he could grab on to the closer's chair and keep it all year. He's basically Wade Daivs with a much clearer shot at a season of closing. Those trades I made with Bill look worse and worse and worse. First I trade McGee AND JD Martinez for Dozier, THEN I trade Dozier for McGee, THEN it looks like McGee could possibly not close. Moral of the story here? Don't trade with Bill. Especially multiple times.
Bench guys: $1-$4
The $1 to $4 tier has so very many players that I'm not going to do a full write up, but I do like some of the following guys.
Hitters: Brad Miller could be a servicalbe shortstop at $1, and Travis Snider is the rare post-post-post-hype sleeper. Asdrubal Cabrera is nothing special, but he's fairly reliable and $3 is super cheap.
Pitchers: I like a lot of picks here. TJ House, Drew Pomeranz, Taijuan Walker, Jesse Hahn, and Wade Miley have nice upside and a touch of keeper value if things work out.
Dishonorable mention: Mike Moustakas. Why would anyone draft Mike Moustakas? Christ almighty. What sort of idiot would do that?
Studs: $30+
Hitter: I really like Adrian Beltre at $31. Donaldson, the top 3B, went for $39, and while Beltre might not match Donaldson in HR, Beltre is well ahead of Donaldson in batting average. If the Rangers offense bounces back the way it is expected to, I could see Beltre matching or beating Donaldson in 4 out of 5 categories for 3/4ths of the price.
Pitcher
There's only one pitcher that qualifies, and Chris Sale at $35 is quite a bit for a pitcher who has never made more than 30 starts and only once thrown more than 200 innings. When Chris Sale is pitching, he is outstanding, so if Bill can piece together a few OK starts from the wire, he'll be fine (and it's probably easier to find decent pitching early in the season when breakout pitchers are still unidentified and offense is down on the whole).
Dishonorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury at $34 is a hell of a lot to pay for a guy who tends to miss time and whose value is based mainly in stolen bases.
Keeper: I feel the need to mention Jose Reyes. At $30, he seems way over priced. Taylor must be counting on a thumping Blue Jays lineup to push Reyes to 100+ runs. He's a fairly substantial drag at RBI, which is not what you want in a $30 keeper.
All Stars: $20-$29
Hitter: I'll cop out here and name a few. I like a lot of the hitters in this tier. Ortiz at $24, Longoria at $23, Kyle Seager at $24, and Pablo Sandoval at $20 are all solid deals. There's nothing spectacular about any of these picks, but they are all solid values for
Pitcher: Jeff Samardzija at $20 is a nice pickup. Even if he regresses some on his walk and home run rates, $20 is about right, and it's a rare pitcher pick in this price range with upside.
Dishonorable mention: I'll rule out Alex Cobb, since it hardly seems fair to give Bill a hard time about a player that got hurt after he was drafted. Instead, I'll turn and focus on myself. This tier had a few overpriced guys (Hanley was a bit rich, Fielder and Pujols are counting on health), but Cespedes at $28 is quite an overpay. I'm counting on him to bounce back to his power levels of two years ago while keeping the batting average and counting stats of last year. I may get some of those, but I really need all of them to happen to make Cespedes worth $28.
Plus Starters: $15-$19:
Hitters: Again, there's a lot to like in this tier. As Bill mentioned, Kinsler at $19 is a great pick considering where other 2B went (Altuve was kept at $16, Cano at $30, Kipnis and Pedroia drafted at $18 and $19). another guy I like here is McCann. He's a reliable power source at catcher, and given how much Gattis went for, he's a solid deal.
Pitchers: This seemed to be the tier for a lot of closers. Roberston ($18), Street ($15), Perkins ($16), and Britton ($14, just outside my completely arbitrary cutoff) are all about right in terms of cost. My favorite pitcher here is Matt Shoemaker at $18. He's going to finish in the top 5 for Cy Young, and will be an outstanding keeper for next season.
Kidding. I do like two of starters at the bottom of the tier- Gray and Sanchez are strong bounceback candidates, and could turn a small profit. All in all, there's nothing too flashy, pitching wise, but a lot of reasonable deals.
Dishonorable mention: It has to be Shoemaker. I painting myself into a corner here by missing out on ALL of the closers listed above, and needed to spend the money somewhere. My draft board was insanely high on Shoemaker ($16.10), but I ended up in a bidding war with Bill hwen my money would have been better spent on guys like Cecil and Boxberger, particularly Boxberger as a hedge for McGee.
Starters: $10-$14:
Hitters: Bogaerts at $12 makes for an excellent upside pick at shortstop. Odor at $12 is another solid infield pick. My favorite here might be Oswaldo Arcia at $11. Huge power upside there.
Pitchers: Salazar at $12 is risky, but has a lot of upside. I also like Pineda at $13 and McHugh at $13 as pitchers that could be outstanding at a reasonable price. Britton at $14 is my pick, though. His stuff is outstanding (check out the whiff rate and zone rates for last year- ) and he's closing on what looks to be a solid Orioles team.
Dishonorable mention: The catching duo of Wieters and Perez at $12 and $14 shares the award for this tier. Too much risk, not enough production relative to the much, much cheaper lower tier of catchers. Both have injury risk (Perez from the INSANE number of games he caught last year, and Wieters is recovering from Tommy John surgery), and just aren't worth the price.
Super subs: $5-$9
Hitters: Joe Mauer at $9 provides serious batting average upside. It's hard to believe just how fast he has fallen. Just take a look at his prices over the previous 5 seasons ($21, $17 (keeper), $17, $25, $32). Marcus Semien might be the best pick here. He's only $9, can play 2B, 3B, and will gain SS eligibility early this year. His 2014 line looks worse than a limited stint in 2013, but Semien took a step forward in all the underlying numbers, halving his whiff rate and increasing his walk rate. The 27.5 K% from last year looks ugly, but the underlying numbers and his minor league numbers don't suggest a high strikeout player. Semien could hit 0.265/15HR/10SB, while plahying three positions. That's roughly (Pun intended!) what I am hoping to get out of Odor, without the position flexibility AND for a few bucks more.
Pitchers: Boxberger is the guy here. As Bill said, his numbers last season were insane and he could grab on to the closer's chair and keep it all year. He's basically Wade Daivs with a much clearer shot at a season of closing. Those trades I made with Bill look worse and worse and worse. First I trade McGee AND JD Martinez for Dozier, THEN I trade Dozier for McGee, THEN it looks like McGee could possibly not close. Moral of the story here? Don't trade with Bill. Especially multiple times.
Bench guys: $1-$4
The $1 to $4 tier has so very many players that I'm not going to do a full write up, but I do like some of the following guys.
Hitters: Brad Miller could be a servicalbe shortstop at $1, and Travis Snider is the rare post-post-post-hype sleeper. Asdrubal Cabrera is nothing special, but he's fairly reliable and $3 is super cheap.
Pitchers: I like a lot of picks here. TJ House, Drew Pomeranz, Taijuan Walker, Jesse Hahn, and Wade Miley have nice upside and a touch of keeper value if things work out.
Dishonorable mention: Mike Moustakas. Why would anyone draft Mike Moustakas? Christ almighty. What sort of idiot would do that?
Draft Recap Part II: Mark, Andrew, Luke, Bill
First of all, apologies to Spencer, who actually finished in 3rd
place last year. I misremembered the team names, and put him in Part I at 6th place, when it
should have been Mark there and Spencer at 3rd, in this
article.
Mark
With just under $200 to play with in the draft, and three
kept pitchers for $51, to go along with JD Martinez and Steve Pearce at $10 each,
Mark promptly spent $124 of that to fill out his infield, including snagging
three of the first six picks for a whopping $105. With nine players to go and
$11 left, Mark threw out Yu Darvish at $3, followed by crickets, leaving him 8
$1 players to round out his roster (including three starters). The ESPN
projections are high on his hitting (25 points, third best), but pretty down on
his pitching (14 points, worst), with Mark coming up way short on strikeouts
and wins.
Best Pick
Ian Kinsler (2B, $19) With much less reliable players like
Kipnis and Pedroia going for the same amount, Mark snagged a really nice value
with Kinsler here. The homers and steals are down a bit from his Texas heyday,
but with about 15 of each and plenty of runs and RBI and a powerful Tigers
lineup, Kinsler is probably the best value on Mark’s roster. The stars and scrubs approach left Mark without a ton of depth, so safe and solid is a good way to go for his team, as well.
Honorable mention: Kendrys Morales (1B, $1); Joe Nathan (RP,
$7) no, he’s not particularly good anymore, but he’s still a closer and was the
same cost as guys who are expected to only have the job a month.
Worst Pick
Salvador Perez (C, $14) Salvador Perez is a pretty good
catcher, but a lot of his value in fantasy comes from straight up volume of at
bats. Perez had over 600 plate appearances last year, more than 10% more than
the next catcher in the AL (Brian McCann, 538). That volume lets him tally HR,
RBI, and R despite being mediocre offensively. However, the Royals are planning
on giving him more rest next year, which is a very reasonable thing to do after
KC got to see what 150+ games at catcher does to someone first hand (Jason
Kendall, come on down!). Unfortunately, that will ding his fantasy value a good
bit. With so little money left at that stage of the draft and other positions
to fill, Mark could have gone cheap on catcher (Mike Zunino? John Jaso?), while
improving the team overall.
Honorable mention: Yu Darvish (SP, $3) With Darvish out for
the season with Tommy John, he makes an interesting player to snag and stash
for next year, but not for $3, including all of your remaining discretionary
money.
Things are looking up if…
Mark can find solid starters on waivers or via trades. Mark
was last in projected strikeouts by over 60, but actually leads the league in
K/9 by a substantial amount. Of course, he has a lineup of three starters (topping out at 170 IP for
Richards and Tanaka) and five relievers, so that makes a big difference.
It all goes to shit if…
A significant injury to Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, or
Ellsbury or Martinez would be difficult to overcome. A set back from Richards
or Tanaka would leave Happ as the #2 starter and Mark having to construct a
rotation almost from scratch.
Andrew
Andrew’s team is clearly one of the favorites, with Mike
Trout heading an excellent keeper set and all three projections pegging him as
a top two team. Having an excellent offense across the board will do that for
you. That isn’t to say his team is without its warts, though, as he has
projected weaknesses in saves, ERA, and WHIP. Projections, however, are quite
down on most of his pitchers, including McHugh, Hughes, and Shoemaker.
Best Pick
Luke Gregerson (RP, $7) Yes, the Astros bullpen is a
gigantic mess, but Gregerson is clearly the best pitcher of the bunch. I’ve
built a model to predict K and BB rates based on pitcher’s plate discipline
numbers, and Gregerson’s 2014 numbers yielded an expected K/9 of 10.62, rather
than the pedestrian 7.34 K/9 he actually had. If Gregerson can snag the job and
my model is right about his K upside, this could be a really nice pick.
Honorable mention: Justin Masterson (SP, $1) Yes, he’s been
bombed once or twice this spring, but in 2013 Masterson was just outside the
top 10 for SP. Drew Smyly (SP, $10) Somehow, he snuck in during a lull in the
draft fairly early on, and is a great value, despite the shoulder question
marks. John Jaso (C, $1) One concussion away from maybe retiring, but he’s a C
who really plays 1B now.
Worst Pick
Matt Shoemaker (SP, $18) I think we all saw this one coming.
I knew Andrew was quite high on Shoemaker and there really weren’t many good options
left out there, so I ended up bidding him way up on Shoemaker. There’s a lot to
like about Shoemaker as a pitcher – great K and walk rates last year, albeit
the walks are going to bounce back up a good bit, it’s just that at $18 there
isn’t a ton of value here. Andrew may have been better off snagging a closer
and some lower cost, upside arms like Hutchison, Eovaldi, Heaney, or Hahn.
Honorable mention: Michael Saunders (OF, $10) Every year
Andrew pegs Saunders as a sleeper. I suppose one of these years he might be
right, but $10 for an injured, injury prone guy in a potential playing time
battle with Viciedo isn’t exactly a good value.
Things are looking up if…
The projections are wrong about Shoemaker (4.02 ERA), Hughes
(4.07), and to a lesser extent, McHugh (3.74). Gregerson snags the Astros
closer job.
It all goes to shit if…
Hughes, Shoemaker, and McHugh are all one year wonders,
rather than legitimate breakouts. McGee never get his closer gig back under new
manager Kevin Cash. Saunders and Rasmus disappoint, leaving two giant holes in
the outfield.
Luke
ESPN is not kind to Luke in 1AT (After Trout). Their
projections have his pitching and offense both second to last, with a major
weakness in strikeouts most notably, despite having a lot of projected innings. Stolen bases are a strong point, though, with a very balanced approach (5 players projected to steal 15 or more bases).
Best Pick
Alejandro De Aza (OF, $2) This is a great deal on a player
who is leaps and bounds better in fantasy than reality. Yes, De Aza had a .314
OBP last year. Yes, he was caught 10 times on the base paths. No, the Orioles
don’t seem to give a damn about any of that. Fifteen homers and ten steals out
of a $2 player is a good deal, and on a solid offense like the Orioles, he’ll
probably chip in pretty good R and RBI numbers.
Honorable mention: Adam LaRoche (1B, $17) Power is scarce,
and LaRoche should be a solid starter.
Worst Pick
Jered Weaver (SP, $11) The price isn’t too terrible, as
Weaver is a guy who will help you in ERA and WHIP, but the strikeouts haven’t
been there for years. With Jose Quintana leading his staff, Luke really could
have used a higher K pitcher in that same range, such as Smyly or McHugh.
Honorable mention: Chris Tillman (SP, $5) Lots more innings,
not that many Ks.
Things are looking up if…
Quintana beats his projections handily and matches his 8.00
K/9, rather than his projected 7.24, Kazmir pitches like first half Kazmir striking
out a batter per nine.
It all goes to shit if…
Luke Porcello, Tillman, Quintana, and Weaver all pile up a
ton of innings while not helping in strikeouts at all. Chris Davis shows that
2013 was the aberrant year, not 2014.
Bill
I came into the draft with a pretty good set of keepers, but
Stroman’s injury and subsequent dropping left me with only four keepers and
needing to fill out a whole rotation in the draft. I targeted Chris Sale ($35)
and Cobb ($25) as the two best pitchers in the draft; unfortunately, they’ll
both start the season on the DL. Average and stolen bases are quite weak,
having missed out on any major basestealers, and strikeouts and wins are weak
thanks to low innings pitched totals from starting 4 relievers. Those four
relievers should pile up the saves, though.
Best Pick
Brad Boxberger (RP, $7) Boxberger’s numbers (14.47 K/9, 2.37
ERA) were stupid good last year, and when you factor in that he was actually
rather unlucky on home runs (18.8% HR/FB, when the average is ~10% and most
pitchers don’t seem to have any control over the stat) he could be poised to
take the TB closer job and run with it. We don’t know new TB manager Kevin Cash’s
tendencies yet, but: 1) he might prefer to leave left hander Jake McGee in a
fireman role, 2) he might not be afraid to reshuffle the pen, since as a new
manager he might not have loyalty to McGee in the closer role. Even if he doesn’t
keep the closer job, a month of saves, a ton of strikeouts, and elite ratios
ought to be worth the $7 price tag.
Honorable mention: Drew Hutchison (SP, $4) Hutchison had a
very strong second half and piles up the strikeouts; Danny Farquhar (RP, $3)
Although Rodney held the Seattle job last year, he was uninspiring throughout the
year (1.34 WHIP), despite a shiny ERA; Rodney is a FA next year, so if he
struggles, the M’s won’t hesitate to pull the plug. TJ House (SP $3) Guaranteed
a spot in the rotation with Floyd out, TJ House was also sneaky good last year.
I guess I like a lot of my picks. I suppose that makes
sense; I would imagine you guys like your picks more than I do.
Worst Pick
Huston Street (RP, $15) Street at $15 is right where I had
him coming into the draft, and despite a fastball that sits around 90 MPH, he
generates plenty of swinging strikes (so my model is high on him) and
strikeouts. With Britton and Allen already drafted, and lots more interesting
arms that I ended up drafting later, such as Boxberger and Farquhar, the money
probably would have been better spent upgrading infield or outfield.
Honorable mention: Billy Butler (1B, $10) Betting on a Billy
Butler bounceback isn’t a terrible proposition, but with Hosmer already in the
fold, the money could have been better spent on someone with a different skillset.
Things are looking up if…
Sale and Cobb come back quickly and dominate, while cobbling
together enough innings in the meantime to not fall too far behind in counting
stats. Hutchison, House, and Miley all are viable starters. I can find steals
via trade or the waiver wire. Brad Miller is a solid starter, allowing me to
slide Hanley Ramirez into the outfield.
It all goes to shit if…
Cobb’s tendonitis is a precursor to a much more serious injury,
like Tommy John surgery. Rusney Castillo stays in the minors while Mookie lights
it up and Shane Victorino somehow stays both healthy and effective, crippling
my chances in stolen bases while dinging an already poor batting average.
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