Fun with Early Season Numbers

All numbers are as of Sunday morning. All numbers are rounded to the nearest third of an inning or at bat.

I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.

ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.

Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.

Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!

Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.

Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.

So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89

Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.

Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41

So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.

Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.

Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all. 

Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.

I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.

Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins.  What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.

Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.

Combined Bold predictions and discussion

I thought it might be nice to have all the bold predictions in one spot, to make it easier to have a discussion about all of them.

Bill:
1) Zach Britton is a top 5 closer and >9 K/9
2) Drew Hutchison 200K, top 20 SP
3) Brad Boxberger 30 SV OR 110K
4) Chris Sale >227K
5) Hanley Ramirez > 200 R+RBI

Andrew:
1) Drew Pomeranz is #1 A's pitcher
2) Albert Pujols >33HR
3) Phil Hughes top 12 SP
4) Michael Saunders >40 HR + SB
5) Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer

Caleb:
1) Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
2) George Springer >55 HR + SB
3) Shane Greene is the best $3 pitcher
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin top 10 OF
5) Mike Napoli hits 25HR at has Player Rater >4.79

Luke:
1) Team finishes #1 in W
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR

The Last of the Zeroes

Two days in (well, really a day and a half with the short slate of games on Tuesday), . Just like some writers track who the last player to draw a walk is, I thought it'd be fun to track the zeroes in specific categories.

To start off, I'm going to throw out strikeouts. Everyone picked up a strikeout on opening day, and it doesn't seem meaningful to parse out times there.

Also, we're all on the board for RBI! Kate is bringing up the back of the pack here with 1, and I believe she was the last person to get on the board there, with Marcus Semien picking up a 4th inning RBI single in a 10 PM game on opening day.

Kate is also the last woman standing with a zero in runs and HR.  She has Arcia and Mauer going this afternoon, so either of those could change quickly if Anibal Sanchez throws a meatball.

With stolen bases, both Mark and Spencer are holding steady at zero. ESPN had both fairly close to the top of the standings in the category, so that isn't cause for concern. Also, the leader in the category has all of one stolen base, so it isn't like there's a huge gap opening already.

On to the pitching categories, where the discrete nature of many of the stats makes it a lot more interesting.

Andrew and Caleb are both sans wins at this point, but Andrew has three pitchers going today. To paraphrase him, albeit with much more colorful language, this run of starters will give him an idea whether his pitching be ok, a small problem like burning a pot on the stove, or a big problem, like the Door to Hell. Caleb has no one going today, and Shane Greene and Daniel Norris going tomorrow, so he's my pick to be stuck at 0 the longest.

Finally, we get to saves. Taylor, Kate, and Luke are all still waiting on their first save. Of the three, Luke is the only one with two healthy closers, and Kate has Betances (and Uehara, once he's healthy). Taylor snagged Mujica off the wire, so he at least has a short term option. He might be the last one standing at zero here, since the Red Sox offense has been looking great and the Phillies aren't exactly good at baseball. Long term, this looks like a huge area of weakness, too; once Uehara is healthy, Taylor is down to no closers at all.

one last bonus prediction: Mike Moustakas!

One last bonus prediction that I accidentally cut out. Mike Moustakas will have keeper value, either in trade or for me at the end of the season. His babip will return to reasonable levels, which combined with improving k and bb rates will make him keep able.

Luke's literally and figuratively too-late bold predictions (EDITED)

1. R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. Just kidding. Not making that mistake again.

1. My pitching staff makes up for sucking at striking people out by coming in first place in Wins. This is more a prediction based on what I NEED to happen than what I actually think WILL happen. I didn't target wins in the draft or anything, because that would be stupid, but I ended up with 6 SPs who tend to eat innings and on the average should get pretty solid run support. My SPs all ranked between 9th and 21st in innings last year, and represent the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Angels, Athletics, and White Sox. Again, I better hope that this happens, because I'm likely to be near the bottom in Ks.

2. Josh Donaldson hits 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, both career firsts, and EITHER scores 100 runs, bats .280, or steals 10 bases. Bill called me out for being insufficiently bold, so my revised prediction is Donaldson hits 30 HRs, 200 Rs+RBIs, and bats .280. Batting order is a big question mark for this one, and I had to revise this prediction based on yesterday when he hit 5th. I was expecting him to be in the 2-hole for the Jays and I'm not sure if he's going to be permanently in the 2 or 5 hole. I think if he's batting 2nd he should surpass 100 runs by enough to make up for lower RBI numbers, and vice versa if he's batting 5th.

3. 6 of the guys currently on my roster hit 10 HRs and steal 10 bases. Brantley, Gardner, Zobrist, Jennings, and De Aza should make 5 without too much trouble, although that's no guarantee considering that Zobrist got exactly 10/10 last year, De Aza only hit 8 HRs, and Jennings finished with exactly 10 HRs. If I do get those 5, I'll need 1 of A-rod, Victorino, or Devon Travis to come through for me. Maybe this isn't bold enough, but 7 seems way too bold. I'm essentially betting that 6 out of these 8 guys will be healthy contributors for most of the season.

4. Mike Trout....wait, where is Mike Trout!?!? He's still on my team, right? You mean I traded him to Andrew last year and still didn't win?! NOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Ahh, well, at least I still have Mike Trout-Lite. Make that Extra-Lite. I'm talking about Michael Brantley. My prediction is that Brantley finds a way to somehow, someway, outperform his 2014 roto line in at least ONE category. That might not seem bold to give myself 5 chances to win like that, but Brantley broke out in such a huge way last year that I think it's fair. He slaughtered all his previous career highs by 10 HRs, 28 runs, 24 RBIs, 6 steals, and 39 points in AVG. Every projection system expects major regression in every category. For me to get this, Brantley will need either 21 HRs, 95 runs, 98 RBIs, 24 steals, or a .328 AVG.

5. Adam LaRoche sets a career high in HRs with 34. He hit 26 last year, and 20 the year before, so I think this is sufficiently bold. He is going to love hitting in The Cell.

Caleb's technically-too-late bold predictions

I'm writing this while sitting down for Red Sox opening day. There've been a few innings of AL ball around the league but I think that's OK.

1) Dustin Pedroia continues his early pace and hits 648 HRs. But I would settle for something close to his 2012 numbers. I expect something like.300/15 HR/20 SB with 100 runs. No great statistical info analysis to back this up - it's what he's capable of and I believe he played injured for all of 2014. My actual prediction is that Pedroia finishes as a top 3 2B by Player Rater. 

2) George Springer accumulates 55 HR + SB.  There's not a whole lot to say here. I'm counting on him to steal more, but even if he only gets 15 SB this is a total he could potentially reach.

3) Shane Greene accumulates more PR value than any other SP drafted for $3 or less. The main competition here are Wade Miley, Carlos Rodon, Pomeranz, Ervin Santana (motherf%&$er), Aaron Sanchez, Duffy, Chen, Masterson, House, Gallardo, Bauer, and Happ. Bauer and Pomeranz make me the most nervous, but I'm going for it anyway. FanGraphs has been all over Greene this off-season, including a (somewhat shallow for Fangraphs) write-up that came out today. His track record in the majors is short but he put up potentially repeatable numbers with great breaking stuff, and I love the transition from Yankee Stadium to Detroit to help his HR rate, and the upgrade from Jeter to Iglesias behind him given his high GB rate. Even if his K% regresses a bit, which is a reasonable expectation, he should still be very valuable.

4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF by PR. Martin was #15 in 2014 and Calhoun was #18. Calhoun missed roughly 100 ABs with an injury, and probably would have finished 2nd in runs if he hadn't. He's never gonna accumulate a ton of RBI, and won't be asked to steal a lot, but if he can keep up his OBP and power in front of Trout and Pujols he'll see easy improvement. Martin is batting lead-off to start the year - even if his rate stats and power don't improve at all in his age 27 season, he should accumulate a ton more Rs and I think will steal more than he did last year. OF is a little shallow this year it seems, and a lot of the guys who finished ahead of them in 2014 could reasonably be expected to regress.

DUSTIN PEDROIA 2nd HR!!! I really feel like I'm cheating now.

5) Mike Napoli hits 25 HRs and accumulate more PR value than he has in either of the last two seasons. The number he'll have to beat from 2013 is 4.79. There are a lot of sobering trends in the last couple seasons for Nap, He's getting old and has been beat up, His .ISO and fly-ball numbers trended downwards badly last year. But I'm a big believer in health, and the new Red Sox lineup. He underwent bimaxillary reconstruction for sleep apnea in the offseason (and still has no feeling in his lips!), and his hips actually got BETTER since being treated for avascular necrosis. He was so exhausted last season he almost retired but tried surgery instead. He's on the tail end of his career but I'm expecting a late resurgence and a return to 2013 levels of value.

Andrew's BOLD predictions

Drew Pomeranz is the most valuable starting pitcher on the A’s. 

This is a big one for me, but I think Pomeranz could juuust sneak in ahead of Gray and Kazmir.  Gray’s stuff took a clear step backwards last season, and Kazmir is always a health risk (though he’s been outstanding and healthy looking this spring).  Pomeranz was great as a starter last season, with a healthy 24% K rate as a starter, with more ground balls than flyballs and a 12% IFFB rate.  With the A’s improving the infield by adding solid defenders like Zobrist, Semien, and Lawrie, and the capacious foul territory of the Coliseum, I like Pomeranz to sport a low BABIP and a nice ERA.

Albert Pujols somehow hits 33 or more home runs.

You know how my first one had all sorts of numbers and reason behind it?  This has none of that.  The numbers, in Pujols’ case, are pretty flat or trending down.  His 2014 wasn't a big shift from 2013 in terms of the underlying numbers. Batted ball distance, strikeout rate, and walk rate were only slightly changed.  This is entirely a gut/nostalgia call.  Pujols hasn't hit more than 30 HR since coming to the AL, but I think he has one last big season before he continues his slide into good but not great territory.

Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP (removing any primarily RP pitchers from the mix)

I think Hughes can repeat his 2014 season.  His BABIP was high (0.324, career 0.300, despite a healthy 10% IFFB rate) and he actually underperformed both his FIP and his xFIP last season.  I’d expect the K rate to dip a bit, maybe, just maybe, he could keep it up around 8K/9 simply Hughes gets more strikes than anyone.  He led qualified pitchers in first strike percent, zone percent, and swing rates both inside AND outside the zone. 

Michael Saunders finds a home in the Rodgers Centre and hits 40 HR+SB

Sure, he’s coming off of knee surgery.  Sure, he can’t stay healthy and is opening the season on the DL.  I still believe in his potential, especially now that he is out of Safeco and in a hitter friendly park with a nice lineup around him.  He's finished with a 20-20 season back in 2012, and I think he can match that with a little more power and a little less speed.

Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer

The Astros don’t scare anyone, but their bullpen has improved, meaning that hopefully they can hold on to a few more leads this season.  Gregerson only struck out 7.3/9 last season, managed a higher 8.82/9 in his career.  The underlying numbers from last season don’t look any different, so I expect him to be up around 8.5 to 9 K/9 this season.  That, combined with his saves and ERA, will push him into the top 5.

Bonus prediction: Matt Shoemaker gets at least one Cy Young vote.

I had to have had a reason for spending $18 on him, right?

Bill's Bold Predictions, 2015

1. Zach Britton strikes out a batter per inning, a big jump from his 7.31 K/9 in 2014, allowing him to remain a top 5 closer, despite a substantial regression to the mean on balls in play.

Originally, I was going to simply write that Britton’s K rate would jump and he’d be an elite reliever. Well, he was actually the #2 RP in our league last year, thanks in large part to a 1.65 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.  A .215 BABIP is likely to repeat itself, even with his unreal groundball tendencies (75% in 2014) and an elite Orioles infield defense, with Hardy and Machado leading the way. That big jump in Ks is coming thanks to a strong swinging strike rate (13.1% , 30^th for relievers), should buoy what was a pedestrian strikeout rate (104^th for relievers). Striking out a batter per inning would mean that Britton is an asset in strikeouts, and he ought to pile up saves again on a competitive Orioles team.

2. Drew Hutchison strikes out 200 batters, en route to a top 20 season.

Hutchison was quietly spectacular, strikeout wise last year. In 185 IP, he struck out 184 batters, good for 8^th best K rate among AL starters. He was SP #42 though, thanks to a gaudy ERA (4.48). He’s still in a tough park for a fly ball pitcher, but Hutchison will build on 2014 and end up as a top 20 SP with over 200 K. I’ll need it, too, given how short it looks like I am on innings and strikeouts. 

3. Brad Boxberger finishes with 30 saves or 110 K.

Managers are fickle things, and a rookie manager like Kevin Cash is even harder to predict. Quite simply, though, Boxberger was spectacular last year in every respect except an extraordinarily high HR/FB rate. I think he either hangs on to the closer job all season, or he is a shutdown reliever in the mold of 2014 Dellin Betances. Last season, Betances was the only one to surpass this mark (135 K), while several other elite relievers came close (Wade Davis at 109, Aroldis Chapman at 106, Boxberger at 104)

4. Chris Sale sets a career high in Ks (227 or more).

Sale was dominant last year, and started using a set of pitches that ought to be less stressful on his elbow and shoulder (more changeups, fewer sliders). If he can match his K rate from last year (10.76 K/9 IP, a career high as a starter), he’ll need to get up to 190 IP, or if he matches my model’s predicted value for him (10.35 K/9). Either way, he’ll need to stay elite and healthy to hit these totals. Making it doubly bold is the fact that he’s missing a start or two in April. Sale pitched 214 innings in 2012 with only 30 starts, so he can do it, but he’ll need health throughout the rest of the season.

5. Hanley Ramirez has over 200 R+RBI.

Last year, only three hitters totaled over 200 R and RBI – Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and Mike Trout. Hanley will join the club this year, capitalizing on a very strong Red Sox lineup, with potentially elite OBP guys in Betts, Pedroia, and Ortiz hitting ahead of him, and solid bats in Napoli and Sandoval hitting behind him. The catch is going to be staying healthy – Hanley has only played in 130+ games once in the last 4 years. Hopefully, moving off of shortstop will help.

BONUS PREDICTIONS!

Jose Ramirez and Carlos Beltran do not finish within 75 places on the player rater.

That’s the difference between Carlos Santana (#76 last year) and Dayan Viciedo (#148). I just have no idea which was it’ll go. I’m convinced someone got screwed in that deal, but I just can’t decide who.

Brad Miller combines for 25 HR+SB and 125 R+RBI to capitalize on being a post-hype sleeper.

Only two shortstops offered this kind of balanced production last year (Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez), and with his main competition hurt to start the year, Miller has the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Hopefully this works out better than last year, when I dropped $11 on Miller to be my starting shortstop. Whoops!

Carlos Santana hits at least .265 with 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Santana was spectacular as a first baseman down the stretch last year, making up for a very rough start. Exclusively a first baseman now, and not penciled in as a DH (where he experienced the typical DH penalty) for most days, big things are ahead for Santana.

Avisail Garcia goes 20 HR/10 SB with a .270 average.

20/10 is basically his pace from 2014, before he went down with an injury. I’m hoping that the reduction in strikeouts this spring (23.2% in 2014, only 14% in spring training this year) will carry over to the regular season, since that is a big bump from his 2014 average of .244.

Cody Allen is a top 3 closer.

Allen was great down the stretch, once the Indians bullpen was sorted out. With tons of strikeouts and a solid Indians team, he’s poised to jump into the elite tier.

So what's everyone's take? Way too bold? Or grocery store salsa bold?