My thoughts on the 2011 draft

I don't have time for a preview with projections, but I thought I'd take a quick look at how teams did in the draft. I guess I'll just go with the draft order, which sadly puts me first. If you're looking for some entertainment, you can also check out my write up from last year. While I nailed Beckham, Roberts, Mauer, and Sizemore as overpays or poor decisions and Chris Perez, Colby Lewis, and Brian Matusz as deals, I also called JJ Hardy Andrew's best pick, and Robinson Cano as his worst. Whoops. Here we go! Again, nothing is set in stone here and it is a long season. We certainly weren't talking about Jose Bautista or Carlos Santana this time last year, but they ended up being two of the very best deals in the entire draft.

Bill - Oh No, Mr. Bill

Strengths: Corner infield, reliever depth
Corner infield had better be a strength, considering I dropped $91 on my three starters (Gonzalez, A-Rod, and Billy Butler). I kept reading that power was in short supply this year, so I spent the big bucks on two guys with a pretty good shot at topping 40 HR and a good all around 1B to help pull up my average. A-Rod is the riskiest - all his in season numbers point to a fairly steady decline, but I talked myself into going with him thanks to a strong spring.

I also ended up with 5 relief pitchers. It hadn't been my exact plan, but with only one established closer and not much money left at the end of the draft, I decided to go with quantity over quality. Rauch will open the year as the Blue Jays closer, as will Uehara if healthy. Throw in deeper sleepers like Balfour and Lowe, and I think I'll cobble together enough saves to be competitive.

Weaknesses: Starting pitching, stolen bases
It is hard to believe that starting pitching is a weakness, considering the fact that I kept two starters (Matusz and Floyd) and drafted Lester for $30 with my first pick, but my only other drafted starter was Clay Buchholz ($18). I'll probably have to address this with a trade at some point, but in the mean time I guess I'll be scouring the waiver wire, especially once Neftali Feliz is officially name the closer and I can cut Mark Lowe.
It is also a bit hard to believe that I'm short on stolen bases, despite keeping Gardner at $4, but I didn't draft another pure speed guy anywhere else in the draft. Abreu and Zobrist will chip in nicely, but the ESPN in draft projections had me as second to last in steals. Maybe Butler really will run this year, pulling me out of the SB cellar!

Best pick: Jason Kubel ($7). Despite a horrendous start to the year, Kubel still hit 21 HR with 92 RBI. If he can split the difference between 2009 and 2010 (~25 HR, 95 RBI), I'm golden.

Worst pick: Clay Buchholz ($17). I paid for upside here, believing in Buchholz's stuff over his numbers. I'm hoping that he can make the leap, translating his nasty stuff into more Ks, but $18 is a ton for a guy who struck out just over 6 batters per nine innings. This really reminds me of my Adam Jones pick from 2010.

Luke - Moscow Trololos
Strengths: Stolen bases
With three guys who could steal 30 or more, plus Derek Jeter, Luke is pretty much set in the category.

Weaknesses: Batting average
And ooh, boy, is it a weakness. Dunn, Hill, Upton, Encarnacion, Figgins, and Arencibia all figure to be significant negatives in batting average. Adding Ichiro, to pair with Dunn, was a nice touch, but you're pushing your luck by piling on an additional four potential batting average drains. Swapping out Figgins for Kendrick would take away 20 bags, but the bump in average and HR might have made this a more balanced team.

Best pick: Mark Trumbo ($1). Trumbo may washout, but for now Luke has the starting 1B for LA and a guy who has hit 5 home runs in spring training while getting good reviews from scouts, for $1. Especially when you factor in keeper potential, Trumbo looks like a great deal.
Honorable mention to Ichiro ($20).

Worst pick: JP Arencibia ($10). This is a bit of a copout, since Arencibia was a keeper, but Luke didn't make any glaring mistakes in the draft. Arencibia as a keeper is tough to swallow when Wieters and Posada went for $8 and $5, respectively, while the keeper Arencibia was switched in for, Edwin Encarnacion, went for $15.

Caleb - Team Murphy
Strengths: Power, starting pitching
This is pretty impressive, considering Caleb came into the draft with the powerless Elvis Andrus and drafted Rajai Davis. He's also getting solid power out of Sean Rodriguez at middle infield. Caleb's starting pitching might be the deepest in the draft, as well. Anchored by Verlander, and supported by Shields and Danks, Caleb might have the best top 3 in the league.

Weaknesses: Injuries, outfield
Caleb also has put together an impressive list of guys who could get hurt at any moment. Morneau seems to be recovering well from his concussion, but he is hardly a sure thing. Quentin hasn't stayed healthy since his breakout season in 2008, and Youkilis is coming off of a season ending injury. Given the price Caleb paid for these guys, there is definite upside there, but tremendous amounts of downside as well.

Also, the outfield is a mess. The aforementioned Carlos Quentin is Caleb's #1, with the one category contributor Rajai Davis being his #2. Matt Joyce and Manny Ramirez are solid sleepers, but I don't know if I'd want to rely on either of them to be a regular starter due to uncertain playing time. Perhaps most tellingly, ESPN's typically bullish projections give an average of 425 AB for these four, well short of full time play.

Best pick: Wade Davis ($7). I remembered Wade Davis being terrible last year, but that simply wasn't backed up by his end of season numbers. A strong finish brought his ERA and WHIP down to respectable levels and he's still very young.
Honorable mention: Justin Verlander ($26). It isn't a steal, but considering the price of pitchers above and below him, definitely good value there. And Verlander is about as safe as they come.

Worst pick(s): Middle relievers ($40 for 5). I'm not a huge fan of paying a ton for middle relievers, considering how inexpensive, yet effective guys are usually available at the end of drafts or emerge as the season goes on. Caleb spent a combined $40 on Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, Brian Fuentes, Alexi Ogando, and Jake McGee. All of them have substantial upside, but at a certain point you have to wonder if he'd have been better off my allocating half of that money to a more proven closer. Would you trade Sale, Bard, Fuentes, Ogando, and McGee for Adrian Gonzalez and four $1 players?

Taylor - Smell the Glove
Strengths: Relief pitchers.
Taylor definitely spent for his two closers (combined $37 for Valverde and Thornton, plus $4 for the Joaquin Benoit handcuff), but he came out of the draft better off for saves than anyone else (excluding Mark and his two kept closers, of course).

Weaknesses: Outfield
Credit his power at other positions, particularly catcher, corner infield, and utility, that a projected total of 43 outfield home runs isn't crippling, but Taylor's outfield is awfully thin. Relying on Alex Gordon to contribute is a dicey proposition, and Raburn is hardly a sure thing.

Best pick: Mark Reynolds ($14). Yes, the batting average will be horrendous, but it is a thin position and Reynolds has spectacular power. I'd much rather have him than EE.
Honorable mention to Denard Span and Yunel Escobar. Two great bounceback possibilities at good prices at a time in the draft when deals were hard to come by.

Worst pick: Last 4
I was afraid that I was going to get scooped on all my relief pitchers and prospects, since Taylor had a little bit more money than I did and had loads of open spots on his roster. Instead he ended up with a lot of low upside pitchers like Vargas and Guthrie. Come on Taylor! Do your deep sleeper research! What are you, planning a move across the country and a wedding or something?


Andrew - Luck Dragons
Strengths: Stolen bases
Andrew has Ellsbury's projected 49 stolen bases supported by an impressive four other players who are projected to steal 20 or more. What is even nicer is that several of those players, such as Choo, Kinsler, and Gutierrez, chip in with home runs as well.

Weaknesses: RP
Although Andrew did a nice job combining League and Aardsma, those are his only two relievers who are expected to get saves. Barring an injury to Mariano Rivera, Andrew is looking at last place in saves.

Best pick: Ian Kinsler ($17). It would be easy to mock Andrew for drafting two second baseman again, but Kinsler could be a steal. In the draft he went for less than Beckham, Hill, and Zobrist, and has infinitely more upside. Considering the fact that Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick went for nearly as much as well, Andrew did a good job striking early to get a deal on a potential stud.
An honorable mention for pairing David Aardsma with Brandon League. Yes, I mocked him for picking Aardsma with the fact that Aardsma has only recently begun walking without crutches, but there really aren't any other options in the Seattle bullpen, so Andrew has that closer situation locked down for $12.

Worst pick: Mike Moustakas ($8). I understand that it was his last pick and that he had money to blow, but by going up to $8 on Moustakas, it really hurts his value long term. Even with a massive breakout I can't see Moustakas getting kept for more than 2 years. Keeper wise, it might have been a better deal to wait and go after later prospects like Hosmer or Chisenhall, while eating a few dollars. Moustakas should be called up earlier than Hosmer, at least, so in terms of 2011 production that should help.

Mark - Reduce. Reuse. Recycle.

Strengths: Relief pitching

Mark came into the draft not needing to do much with his relievers. He did a good job handcuffing Capps to Nathan, so he has the Minnesota closing job locked down and even added Los Angeles Angels' closer Fernando Rodney. Saves are hard to come by, and I imagine we'll see Mark making some deals over the course of the season to shore up other areas of his team.

Weaknesses: Flexibility, volume (at bats/innings pitched), stolen bases

Mark ended up with six DH/1B during the draft - Teixeira, Lee, and Kila Ka'aihue at 1B and Vlad Guerrero, Luke Scott, and Hideki Matsui at DH. While Scott will gain outfield eligibility 2 weeks into the season, that still leaves five players for three spots. Matsui and Vlad both will stay at DH all season, so he'll never be able to start both in a given week.

The other obvious weakness that I see in Mark's team is that he has a lot of guys who aren't expected to get 500+ at bats. The Orioles DH/1B/OF situation is crowded, but Mark has three players in that mess. In a daily league, that would be fine, but with our weekly set up, he is going to be missing a lot of starts. Also, despite starting Julio Borbon and Peter Bourjos, Mark is projected to finish tied for 6th in stolen bases. Sliding Luke Scott into the lineup for Borbon gives Mark some more HR and RBI, but drops him all the way to last in SB.

Best pick:CC Sabathia ($28). Mark needed a front line pitcher, having not kept any starters. He got one of the most reliable pitchers in the AL. He also got a pitcher that will throw a lot of innings. As he is currently starting 4 relievers, having a high IP pitcher will be key for Mark to remain competitive in Ks.

Worst pick: Jake Peavy ($8). If we had done the draft a week ago, this might have been one of the best picks. Late breaking news on Peavy was that he was experiencing shoulder tendinitis and would be shut down until late April. While it is unrelated to the injury he was rehabbing, Peavy has a history of shoulder issues.

Honorable mention: Hideki Matsui ($1). It was only a dollar, but it is more importantly a roster spot. Matsui is a borderline starter in our league and is restricted to the DH spot, where Mark already had Vlad Guerrero.

Kate - All Night Longoria

Strengths: Starting pitching depth

Kate is projected to win the league by 6 points, so there are a lot of strong points on her team, at least from the preseason perspective. While I don't think that Weaver, Price, Anderson, or Cahill will match the hype they have coming into the season, they're all solid pitchers. Kate's top 4 pitchers might be the best in the league and any one of them could be the best pitcher on her team.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts, saves

Kate is projected to finish fifth in strikeouts, and that is with some forecasts that I consider optimistic. Weaver is projected to strikeout almost 9/9 IP, which is lower than last year, but still well above his career numbers. Anderson had a mediocre strikeout rate last year, and none of Duensing, Slowey, or Porcello strike out many batters. It isn't a fatal flaw in her team, but it is a weakness.

A bigger weakness is saves. Just like last year, Kate has Mariano Rivera and lottery tickets. She may have to address that in a midseason trade. With her pitching depth and Mark's excess closers, perhaps they're a match.

Best pick: Matt Wieters ($8). His price far cry from what he went for last year, Wieters still has upside, even if his ceiling gets lower with each passing year without a breakout. Catchers ended up being some solid bargains in the draft this year, and I think Wieters is the best of the bunch.

Honorable mention: Michael Cuddyer ($5). Cuddyer may be key filling in for Kendry Morales for awhile. Although his home run total halved from 2009 to 2010, Cuddyer is still a solid starter. An added bonus: he runs! (19 SB over the last 3 years).

Worst pick: Kendry Morales ($16). The foot injury just scares the hell out of me. Morales still isn't running or doing baseball activities, and now has been shut down due to pain in his foot. At this point, there isn't even a time frame for him to return. It could be April, but it could also be a lot later.

Another quick note - I wonder how Kate is going to do with her keepers next year. It is minor considering how well her 2011 team is projected to do, but aside from Matt Wieters I don't see much long term potential on her roster.

Spencer - The 50%ers

I'm not sure what the percent refers to, perhaps the percentage of his body weight in scotch that he drank over the course of the draft (3-5 drinks or so).

Strengths: Relief pitching, outfield

Spencer did a good job accumulating relievers during the draft. Just like last year, he capitalized on an injury scare from Andrew Bailey to get a potential top reliever for a few bucks below market value. Combined with his keeper Soria, Spencer is pretty much set at closer.

Weaknesses: Infield

Infield is a bit of a disaster for Spencer, at least for the time being. He's currently starting Smoak, Roberts, Peralta, Hardy, and Kendrick. Getting first base eligibility for Lind will help, and will probably allow Willingham to slide into the utility spot. That steal leaves Spencer relying on two of Hardy, Roberts, and Smoak though.

Best pick: Andrew Bailey ($14). There are injury concerns about Bailey, but considering the price of other established closers, Spencer seems to have saved a few dollars here.

Honorable mention for Spencer picking up a handful of top prospects in Carlos Carrasco, Desmond Jenning, and Jesus Montero for $3 or $4 each.

Worst pick: No one. Spencer doesn't have any egregious over pays on his team, but he did leave $12 on the table. While that financial flexibility at the end allowed him to collect a nice set of high upside prospects at fair prices, it also could have turned Justin Morneau into Mark Teixeira or Max Scherzer and Adam Jones into Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. Because Spencer came into the draft with the third largest amount of money left, he really needed to suck it up and spend what the market dictated.