Let's pick them apart.
Only one three year contract - for Carlos Santana. Probably the most deserving player for a three year contract out there, but it's interesting that the rest of us are all so non-committal to our keepers.
Speaking of non-committal - Andrew, Kate, Taylor and Spencer will all be starting from keeper scratch in 2012. No contracts greater than one year. Financially conservative, but will it bite them in the ass when their current keepers do well and they have to struggle to find 5 more?
My votes:
Best overall keeper value: I'm gonna take Spencer over Bill on this one. Spencer only spent a bit more, and he has a stronger crop of keepers. I think Kate is runner up - yeah, she spent a lot, but holy shit...
Worst overall keeper value: This is tough, because there aren't any bad sets of keepers...I think it comes down to me and Taylor. I'm spending a decent amount of money and not really holding on to any 5 star players. Taylor's got some risk in expensive keepers Pedroia and Cabrera, although there's good value in Ortiz and Braden.
Best keeper: David Price ($10). Fantastic value. I'm glad he'll be back on the FA market next season, though. Runners up: Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre.
Worst keeper: Joe Nathan. A two year contract for a guy coming off TJ, and with Matt Capps closing for now. With Chris Perez already providing (some) saves, I don't love this pick. He's not gonna break the bank if it doesn't work out, at least. To me, V-mart, Brett Anderson, or Jesus Montero would have been more tempting options. Runner-up: Edwin Encarnacion. I'm pretty sure Luke thought he was getting him for $2, which is more understandable. He could be the next Jose Bautista, or he could get cut in May. $10 is too much for the level of risk.
23 comments:
Using the 2010 values from Last Player Picked and the 2011 cost, I ranked everyone's keepers. Unsurprisingly, mine were the worst, coming in at -$35 worth of value. According to the values from the site, everyone but Brett Gardner had negative value in 2010. I have a lot of room for growth and if Santana, Snider, and Matusz meet their expectations, I could have a hell of a core to build around, but there are also some major question marks (health and K's for Snider, health for Santana, and effectiveness for Matusz).
Spencer easily leads the way wit $45 of excess value, although Jose Bautista puts Caleb in second. Jose Bautista can't really be expected to hit 54 home runs again, but even at $35 that's a nice value.
Best Keeper: Jose Bautista, $6. Not without risk, but power and 3B are both hard to come by, especially with so many other 3B kept.
Runner Up: Carlos Santana, $11. The knee is scary, but he could easily be the #2 catcher in the league this year and with the 1B and DH situation in Cleveland, he should be able to get plenty of at bats when he's not behind the plate.
Worst Keeper: Elvis Andrus, $23. Two years at $23 is a ton in my mind, especially for a guy who is going to hurt you substantially in home runs and RBI (0 and 35 in 2010, respectively) and doesn't really contribute in average (.265). Andrus could still develop some power, but given that he's 22, it would likely come when after his contract with Caleb is over.
Runner up: Nelson Cruz, $30
I thought Mark had the best suite of keepers coming in, but Nelson Cruz at $30 just perplexes me. He could definitely meet that value if he stays healthy, but in his two years as a full time starter Cruz hasn't even topped 500 AB. If Mark went with Nathan, Thornton, and Perez, to go with Alexei and Beltre he'd be set with top options at three of the most competitive positions - SS, 3B, and closer.
I think Mark's keepers as a whole are really, really scary for this season. I'm not sold on Nelson Cruz for two seasons, especially with the hamstring issues, but he's a possible five category player, and those are hard to come by, plus two closers, a SS, and a 3B. He's filled some of the most expensive/hardest positions to fill, and should be in great shape at the draft.
For best keeper, I think it has to be Bautista. 3B is terribly thin, and 260 avg with 30 hr, 80 runs and 110 rbi is just amazing compared to someone like Danny Valencia(who is projected to be a starting 3B in our league!)
Carlos Santana I think has the best upside, partly due to the length of the contract, and the scarcity at C as well. The knee is definitely a source of concern, but even if he doesn't develop as expected or regresses, the weakness at C basically ensures that the contract can't be an albatross.
The riskiest pick I think has to be Andrus. At his best, he'll contribute a decent average and lots of SBs, but $23 for a 2.5 category player really hurts. I think Andrus has a very limited upside, so I really don't like the 2 year contract.
Going in to the draft, I think Mark is in the best shape for this season, while Bill is positioned for the best long term success. Also, given just how cheap Bill's keepers are, he has a lot of money for the draft.
This evening I think I'll do best/worst keepers for each team.
Ooh, let me spoil the ending for my team! Gaving Floyd is my worst!
FB cap spreadsheet is updated, too.
Go here!
WHOA, yeah, Encarnacion was drafted by Taylor for $2. I got him via a trade from Bill. I don't know what happened in between there, but I'm assuming Taylor dropped him at some point.
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2048853915855998385&postID=5551683643571507728
In the blog post linked to above, Taylor asked about this type of situation. Although Mark initially answered that the player should be kept at original draft value, Taylor disagreed and the issue was never resolved as far as I can see.
Personally, I (obviously) think it makes sense to use the original draft value. Mark, can you make a ruling on this (or put it up to a vote)? If the answer is that Encarnacion will cost me $10, I'd like to choose another keeper, which I think is fair since this issue wasn't resolved explicitly before.
The series of e-mails from Feb. 2 and 3 pretty clearly indicate that all drafted players (such as Brantley or Smoak) who were cut are $10 to keep. I think we had this discussion in season when Kate cut Smoak and when I was deciding whether or not to trade Morrow.
Changing that rule now would radically alter the in season value of guys like Morrow, who I traded during the season (and Spencer traded during the off season) with the knowledge that he would cost $10 to keep, not $1.
I thought The rule about FA keepers was clear. Anyone that is kept that was a FA is $10. But seeing as we don't really have rule book, it doesn't surprise me as to why that wasn't clear. It is also difficult to go back and find whether or not a player had ever been been cut before being traded.
I don't think we should change the rule, but I am fine with Luke picking a new keeper unless there are any serious objections.
Sorry, I guess I should've looked into this more carefully before. I see now that it was addressed in the February emails, it was just kind of buried and was answered along with about 5 other questions all at once.
I didn't actually even realize he had been dropped because I got him via a trade, so I didn't look into this issue.
If it makes any difference to anybody, my choice for the 5th keeper wouldn't at all be affected by seeing everyone else's keepers. JP Arencibia for $10 would be next in line.
I think that is fair. I am changing Luke's keeper to JP.
Also, I will object to the assertion that Nathan is the worst keeper. The risk/reward is exceptional. Worst case, I have $6 less to spend at the auction next year. Best case, I have a top 5 closer for $6 for two seasons.
Thanks.
I can't really defend my andrus pick. It'd true that he's a 2-3 category player. He could be top 3 in runs in the league, and top 10 on steals. I may have been a little oversold on his age, position scarcity, and some possibly overly generous projections, like ESPN's.
And I agree, Joe Nathan for $6 is awesome.
I liked the Andrus pick, Caleb, but I wouldn't have given him 2 years. I'm not sure if the value is still there with that extra $5.
Shortstop is thin (with Alexei and Andrus gone, Jeter is #1 and it gets even thinner after that), but my point is that Caleb probably could have gotten Andrus back in the draft for less than $20.
As for Nathan, I don't think he's a terrible keeper, but I might have gone one year with him due to injury question marks. Not only is the commitment riskier, but it also increases the cost of the player in year 1, too.
Nathan is a fine pick. I don't think we have too many terrible keepers. It's not like I went three years on Brandon Morrow or something. I find it interesting that inflation doesn't seem to be terrible- some of the guys that would be the best bargains are being kept for multiple seasons.
Bill, I think you have some typos in your spreadsheet for my guys. Wilson and Wells should be $1 and $4, respectively.
I find it interesting that I drafted 5 players last year that ended up being kept by somebody else (Choo, Lewis, Bautista, Scott, and Morrow; and Encarnacion would have been #6). I only drafted 1 of my 5 keepers (Cabrera).
I'm pretty sure this means I should make no trades or free agent moves this year. Clearly I'm awesome at drafting and suck at everything else.
Taylor, to be accurate you should look at how many of the keepers you traded netted you a keeper in return, though that might not be much better.
I probably would have kept Thornton over Cruz if Thornton was actually named the closer for the White Sox. I do like Cruz though- one of the only players in the AL that is a true 5 category guy. I think I overvalued inflation in Year 2 however. My assumption was that most people would keep the top tier players for 2 years, which didn't happen. Because guys like Cabrera, Felix, Longoria, Cano, Youkilis, etc. were only kept for 1, the inflation won't be as much as I had anticipated.
Even with the closer situation being uncertain, I think Thornton has good value at $2.
I understand where you're coming from though, worried about keeping a top tier OF, but $30 seems high. Post draft, that sentiment may change, of course. Cruz definitely has the potential to earn that salary, It'll be interesting to see how not having many expensive players available this year, but having them re-enter the draft in 2012 changes things.
Cruz is definitely a high rsik/high reward player, but he is a true 5 category player (like Choo!). The injury risk is enormous though, and he's already getting older. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
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