Welcome to the AL

So what's the over/under on the number of Houston Astros that are drafted by this league in 2013? 1?

Double shame!

Or triple, if you'd like to include the Red Sox. Congrats Caleb - you put together a hell of a team. I was hoping I'd make more of a run, but my pitching just didn't cooperate in September (5.21 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8 W, 4 saves - easily the worst month of the season for me in all four categories).

How close is it?

two tight races! Bill, do you have a shot?

Mark, Luke, and I are in a dogfight for last place.

Woah

now i'm in last place?? NOOOOO. Wall of Shame must be avoided.

Kind of Crazy

Assuming Caleb or Bill win this year (and it looks like it'll be a hell of a race), that will mean that Caleb, Bill or Spencer has won in every year of baseball (5) and every year but 1 in football.

Caleb, Bill or Spencer has won in 91% of our baseball/football leagues. That has to be statistically significant right?

Explaining Jose Bautista

"It's not too [f------] easy to hit home runs when you don't know what's coming!"

Now that their gig is out, will Bautista be able to keep up his Rogers Center homerun rate?

Off topic

Really good read on Kei Igawa.

I had no idea he was still in the states, much less in NYC.

Dumping

I'm finally doing it. Make me some offers this weekend if you're into Josh Hamilton, Mauer, Ichiro, Max Scherzer, Soria et al.

Trade Deadline

I just noticed that the trade deadline is at noon next Friday. Noon on a Friday I think is generally a bad time, but next week in particular I have to take 4 exams and then move out of my apartment by Friday, so I pretty much won't be paying any attention to fantasy baseball at all next week. I plan on making it not an issue by getting trades done by the end of this weekend, but still I'd be interested in moving the deadline a couple days. Last year I remember we did it late on a Sunday night, which I thought was a pretty good time and gave everybody the best chance of being able to put time into trade decisions. Anybody else up for moving the trade deadline to, say, 9 PM PST Sunday the 14th?

Best...renaming...ever

Mark takes the prize with his recent renaming, "Reduced to Refuse." It shows a wonderful sense of humor in what has been a difficult season for his team.

Calling it Quits

Alright, I'm packing it in for the year. I made some deals and finally assembled a team that can hit home runs, but I'm afraid it's too little, too late, and that now my pitching sucks. So, all my 2011 contributors are up for grabs and I'm looking for some stellar keepers for next year. Things to know, however, are that I need to get rid of Hughes and Liriano in order to make room for other keepers. Also, Pineda, Trumbo, Kinsler, and Peralta are all guys that I'd like to keep, so I wouldn't be able to include them in any deals (except maybe Kinsler for the right keeper *COUGHCOUGHJOSEBAUTISTACOUGHCOUGH*). Upton, Arencibia, Wells, Hardy, Kubel, Dunn, Fister, CJ Wilson, Gregg, Francisco, Paulino, and Jackson are all available though.

Mid level keepers

I'm looking to deal mid-level keeper prospects (Quentin at $13, Brantley at $2, A-Rod at $27, Santos at $10 - though I'd need another closer in return) in exchange for rentals. They're not super stars, value wise, but they're a great way to shore up the back end of a set of keepers, particularly for folks who need 5. I'm also willing to take on keeper contracts you'd like to get out of. I'm looking to improve my 3B situation and power overall.

Right now, I just can't see myself dealing Carlos Santana or Eric Hosmer. Blame Caleb's dominant team.

Outfielder for a Pitcher?

Anybody want to trade me an outfielder for one of my starting pitchers? Jackson, Fister, Paulino, and Hughes are all available.

Breaking down the trades

Now that we're past the unofficial half way point, I thought I'd take a look at all the different trades, and try and decide who the winners were. As I mentioned in the post about JJ Hardy and Vernon Wells, I have no idea who "won" most of Luke's trades, since guys were always coming and going...

March

Bill trades David DeJesus to Mark for Michael Brantley

Winner: Bill

DeJesus never really got on track this year, failing to build on what had been looking like a career year in 2010 before getting cut short by injury. Brantley, on the other hand, filled in admirably for Grady Sizemore in center field and has been an all around contributor, on pace for 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

April

Caleb trades Daniel Bard to Spencer for Josh Willingham

Winner: Spencer

Middle relievers are usually a dime a dozen, but Bard is special for a couple of reasons. First of all, he's putting up spectacular ratios and impressive strikeout numbers. Secondly, he's the closer in waiting for the Red Sox. At $8, that's a solid value for Spencer next year.

Mark trades Vlad Guerrero and Jake Peavy for Aaron Hill

Winner: Push

Vlad has been a disappointment, and now is on the DL. Peavy has been effective off and on, but Luke spun him off in a later deal with Spencer. Just in time, too, as he may be pushed to the bullpen with the return of Danks. Despite two underwhelming performances, Mark didn't win this trade because Hill hasn't been impressive either. A .255 average is about expected, but only 4 home runs doesn't cut it, even at 2B.

Spencer trades Matt LaPorta to Luke for Vernon Wells

Winner: Who knows

Luke traded LaPorta to Andrew in a larger deal for Kinsler, and Spencer traded Vernon Wells back to Luke.

Bill trades Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera to Luke for Derek Jeter

Winner: Bill

I filled a big hole at short stop with this deal, and O-Cab quickly came back to earth. Kubel has been hot when he's playing, but an ankle injury has limited his playing time. Jeter hasn't been particularly impressive, excepting his 5/5 day with a home run and a steal to put him over 3,000 hits, but he is racking up the runs.

Spencer trades Justin Morneau to Caleb for Brian Roberts

Winner: Push

Another trade that didn't make much of a difference. Both players have been injured for most of the season, and Roberts has barely played for Caleb. I almost made Spencer the winner based on Morneau's three home runs, but Roberts did contribute three stolen bases for Caleb.

May

Bill trades Jordan Walden to Kate for Brett Anderson

Bill trades Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy to Mark for CC Sabathia

Winner: Bill and Kate

I lumped these two trades together, as Anderson never actually pitched for me. Trading away Anderson for Walden allowed Kate to pick up an extra five points in saves. It hasn't cost me any points in saves, but if I had held on to Anderson this trade would look very different. Instead, I was able to package Anderson, a potential keeper, and a resurgent Brandon McCarthy to Mark for CC Sabathia. Mark's pitching had been devastated by injuries, so he needed the depth, but Anderson and McCarthy both quickly got hurt. Mccarthy has since returned, but in the mean time, CC has piled up lots of innings with great ratios.

Luke trades Delmon Young and JJ Hardy to Spencer for Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Webb

Winner: Who knows

Another head scratcher from Luke and Spencer. Hardy was rostered by Spencer for awhile, before being sent back to Luke as part of a deal for Ichiro. Spencer did manage to turn JJ Hardy in to a high level outfielder, but Peralta has been great for Luke. If I had to pick something, I'd call it a push.

Andrew trades Ian Kinsler and Edwin Jackson to Luke for Ricky Romero, Kyle Farnsworth, and Matt LaPorta

Winner: Push

Kinsler has been great for Luke, putting up 10 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and boat loads of runs. Jackson has been okay (3.68 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but in limited duty. Romero has been good for Andrew (3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) and he hasn't been spot started, accumulating twice as many innings as Jackson has for Luke. Farnsworth has been great for Andrew, accumulating 11 saves and upping his strikeout rate to 7/9 IP. Without Farnsworth, Andrew would be last in saves, so he probably comes out ahead in 2011 value. Kinsler is looking like a solid one or two year keeper though, so Luke is ahead keeper wise. This one looks like a win-win.

Spencer trades John Lackey to Taylor for Justin Duchscherer

Winner: Spencer

Spencer no longer has John Lackey on his team. No, Duchscherer hasn't contributed anything, but the 26 IP of 6+ ERA that Lackey has "contributed" to Taylor's team is worth less than nothing.

June

The June trades are probably too early to evaluate, but for posterity's sake, here they are...

Bill trades Abreu and Jon Rauch to Caleb for Carlos Quentin

Taylor trades David Ortiz to Luke for Vlad Guerrero and Jeremy Hellickson

Spencer trades JJ Hardy and Vernon Wells to Luke for Ichiro, Marco Scutaro, and Jake Peavy. Though we'll probably never be able to figure out who won this one...

How to finish last in home runs

Jose Bautista: 31 HR

Bills entire current starting outfield (Markakis, Snider, Gardner, Quentin): 30 HR

Shit.

What a long, strange trip it's been

March 14 - Luke keeps Vernon Wells.

March 22 - Spencer drafts JJ Hardy.

April 15 - Luke trades Vernon Wells to Spencer for Matt LaPorta.

April 17 - Spencer drops JJ Hardy.

May 7 - Luke adds JJ Hardy.

May 12 - Spencer trades Brandon Webb and Jhonny Peralta to Luke for JJ Hardy and Delmon Young.

July 8 - Spencer trades JJ Hardy and Vernon Wells to Luke for Ichiro, Jake Peavy, and Marco Scutaro.

Looking to deal 2-1 OF

I'm looking to deal 2-1 with outfielders, although I might be able to include an infielder like Billy Butler in the right deal. Obviously who I end up with depends on who I include in the deal (Markakis and Quentin will yield a lot more than Brantley and Snider), but I'm looking for someone who will be a solid starter for me.

Ichiro for power?

Looking to trade Ichiro for an outfielder with some power. Any takers?

The best keepers out of anyone!

At least in AAA. Woo! Travis Snider and Brian Matusz hanging out in the International League. Awesome. No doubt they'll be $17 well spent next year, as well.

Hamilton for an ace?

Anyone want to deal me a pitching ace for Josh Hamilton?

I also want power

Jeremy Hellickson for a power hitter anybody?

Looking for power

Hey everyone - I've already e-mailed some of you, but I'm looking to trade for some power, particularly in the outfield. No one is off limits, but I will say that it'll take an absolute blockbuster to get Hosmer.

Who has the best team?

And by best team, I mean as ranked by rankings that are not specific to our league and may or may not accurately represent value in our league.

ESPN just released their top 250 for the remainder of the season. I was curious to see who fared best, according to their rankings. I wanted to rank the teams by a few simple ways of looking at them. First, I assigned each player a point value. Of the 250 players, 124 were from the AL. I assigned 124 points to the best player ranked (Miguel Cabrera) and one for the worst player ranked (Matt Capps). This probably doesn't reflect real value perfectly in the league, I doubt, for example, that Caleb would be able to trade Rajai Davis and John Danks for Evan Longoria, but it is simple and easy to get at. Another point, this system only gives value to the top 124 players, meaning that with our 24 man rosters there are 68 players who are rostered who are "worthless". These include any non-closer relief pitcher, and starters like Brandon McCarthy or Bartolo Colon.

I come out on top based on total points and number of players ranked (20). That isn't all that surprising, since I've managed to turn players who the ESPN rankings consider fairly low rank (Walden at 19 points and McCarthy at 0) into CC Sabathia (101 points). Our league values AL closers a lot more than these rankings do, for a ten team mixed, closers are pretty fungible, so this may not really reflect reality. Kate comes out on top with the highest average player value (73). Taylor, Mark, and Luke bring up the rear in terms of total points and our actual standings.

Team	Points	Avg. Points	Players	Rank
Bill	1262	63.1	20	3
Caleb	1041	61.2	17	1
Kate	1023	73.1	14	3
Spencer	1004	62.8	16	5
Andrew	915	61.0	15	2
Taylor	911	70.1	13	7
Luke	835	55.7	15	6
Mark	759	54.2	14	8

Let's make a deal!

Hoping to make a deal? You'd better be talking to me, Luke, or Spencer. All eleven of the trades since the draft have involved one of us, and three trades have happened between the three of us. Spencer and Luke are leading the way, with six apiece, and I've made four.

Also, Spencer has to stop collecting injured players at some point, right?

Also, I want to trade an OF for a pitcher

Not sure what happened to my previous post. Hamilton, Adam Jones, Delmon Young, Vernon all on the table.

Anyone want lackey?

I would like to trade him for literally anyone. ANYONE.

Extra OF

Looking to trade one of Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, or Vernon Wells for a pitcher. Quality of pitcher obviously dependent on which of the above you are interested in but not waiver wire fodder.

Relief from the heavens

Mark caught a break today. Gio had a terrible start - getting knocked out in the third inning while giving up 7 runs and 11 base runners, but thanks to the rain, it all vanishes.

Darnell McDonald

should not be pinch run in the 9th inning, at all, ever, period.

Starting Pitcher Anyone?

I've all of a sudden got a bit of extra depth in starting pitching. Romero, Hellickson, Liriano, Carmona, and Peavy are all on the table. CJ Wilson too, if the offer is right, and maybe Pineda if you're willing to trade me your whole team.

Mostly looking for an infielder who can provide R and HR, although I'm open to other offers.

Ugh

Anderson and waiver wire fodder for Sabathia? I don't get it.

If the American League played in Durham Plays for Keeps...

Even though DPFK has a distinct advantage of only having 8 teams, I thought it would be fun to compare our teams to the actual teams in the AL. Given the differences in ABs and IP, the stats I am using in this fantasy fantasy league are all rate stats.

On offense: At Bats per Run, At Bats per Home run, At Bats per Stolen Base, and Average.
For pitching: K's per 9, Innings Pitched per Save, ERA, and WHIP.

Impressively, Cleveland would be the #1 team right now, closely followed by Caleb and Andrew.

Looking to trade a closer

With the addition of Sergio Santos I'm looking to trade one of my closers (Walden, Paps, Santos, Rauch) for either starting pitching or an outfielder or a power hitter. Let me know if you're interested. This could be your only chance to add saves in the next two months!

Ben Zobrist, I love you

Ben Zobrist had a day for the ages, going 7/10, with 5 runs, 2 HR, 10 RBI and a stolen base.

5 runs scored beat three other teams.

Two home runs beat six teams and tied the seventh.

Ten runs batted in beat six teams and tied the seventh.

One stolen base beat two teams and tied three.

Zobrist by himself was good for a tie for third in the offensive counting stats for Thursday.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	Total
Andrew	8	6	7	7	28
Kate	3	4	2	1	10
Caleb	6	1	5	8	20
Taylor	5	1	1	1	8
Mark	2	1	4	3	10
Luke	6	6	6	3	21
Spencer	1	4	2	3	10
Zobrist	4	6	7	3	20

Thank God I drafted Zobrist again this year. If I had to watch both Sizemore and Zobrist kill the ball elsewhere after a horrendous 2010 I'm pretty sure I'd have had an aneurysm by now.

In need of a 2b

I have two third basemen, two shortstops, two catchers, a number of middling outfielders, and two DHs. And Chris Getz at second base. I need to trade one of those former guys to replace the latter guy. They don't even need to be particularly good. Let me know if you have any interest in anyone.

Why I didn't pick up Darren Oliver last night.

I'm dog-sitting for a friend while she is in Italy for the week. Last night I got in from walking the dogs at around 9, ordered Indian food for delivery, and sat down with my laptop. I was reading about Feliz's "shoulder inflammation" and starting the add/drop process when the food arrived. I opened the apartment door and tried to hold it open with my foot while I opened the door to the outside. As I got my food, the apartment door slipped past my foot and shut...locking me out. No keys. No wallet. No money. No phone. No coat. No shoes.

I borrowed a passerby's cell to call the landlord at the number she had posted in the hallway. Not in service. I couldn't call my friend in Italy, because her Italian cell phone's number was written down in the apartment. I pried at windows, tried to pick the lock, and considered breaking down the door. I found a pair of golashes in a closet in the hallway that happened to fit me, and started knocking on doors. No one else was home in the other two apartments in her building. Her neighbor let me in, and even let me into their backyard so I could hop the fence and try to get in through the backdoor - locked. They let me use their phone to call my wife at work and ask her to take a cab to pick me up when she got out. The neighbor, an 85 year old man with an apartment that smelled of urine, invited me to watch Law and Order while I waited. I politely declined and sat outside the apartment until Kate came.

As I sat, with a great view into the apartment and of my laptop sitting on the table, ESPN open on the screen, I started to hear a beeping from inside. It was 10:30, and the alarm that I set on my phone to go off every Saturday to remind me to add and drop players was going off. I watched the phone beep and beep until the battery died, and watched my laptop sit on the add/drop screen until 11 PM passed. I ate cold Indian food without a fork and sat until midnight when my wife arrived and took me back to our apartment.

This morning I got into the apartment with the help of an emergency locksmith, for a rather reasonable fee of $105. I took the very anxious dogs outside, then sat down to see Andrew had added Oliver, who got the first save opportunity. I hated him a little, quietly.

This afternoon I got an email from my friend in Italy, in response to the frantic email I sent her when I got home last night, telling me where to find her spare key outside of the apartment.

And that's the story of why I didn't pick up Darren Oliver last night. I totally would have bid $6, too.

Still not done trading

Grady is back with a vengeance, so I now have 5 OFs and a DH. Looking to deal one of them, preferably Kubel or Young, for an IF or a pitcher.

Sunday pickups

We're not allowed to pick up people on Sunday that were dropped on Saturday, right?

Quick keeper rules question

Not that I intend to do so (really, I don't), but I was just wondering - what happens if someone accumulates more than 5 players who are locked into multiple year contracts?

Who wants Jeter????

Please, somebody take this guy away from me. I'd need an infielder in return, but don't necessarily need a shortstop. Am willing to tolerate having a crappy SS if Jeter can buy me an upgrade at another position. Any takers?

Well shit

I was prepared for pretty much anything from Manny this year, but I did not expect that.

Can someone possibly explain...

Why Sam Fuld's wiki page has 114 references - longer than Manny Ramirez (60), Alex Rodriquez (106), and Albert Pujols (92). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Fuld

Only 25 more references to go to match Ted Williams !

Looking for Batting Average

I'm looking to trade to improve my batting average, so if there's anyone on your team likely to bat .290 or better and you're interested in any of my guys, please let me know!

Baseball Prospectus Standings

BP loves the teams that Mark and Taylor have put together, pegging them as the top two teams and having them 24 points higher than the ESPN standings. Everyone else is pretty close in the middle, except that BP apparently hates Caleb.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Total
Taylor	8	6	8	5	8	35
Mark	6	7.5	6	3	7	29.5
Bill	7	7.5	7	2	3	26.5
Andrew	3	5	4	7	5	24
Luke	5	4	2	8	2	21
Kate	2	3	5	6	4	20
Spencer	4	1	3	1	6	15
Caleb	1	2	1	4	1	9

	ERA	WHIP	SO	W	SV	Total
Mark	8	7	5	3	8	31
Taylor	6	8	4	5	7	30
Kate	7	6	3	6	2	24
Spencer	1	4	7	7	5	24
Bill	5	5	1	2	6	19
Luke	2	1	8	7	1	19
Andrew	3	2	6	4	3	18
Caleb	4	3	2	1	4	14

	Pitching	Hitting	Total	ESPN Score
Taylor	30	35	65	41
Mark	31	29.5	60.5	36.5
Bill	19	26.5	45.5	49
Kate	24	20	44	59
Andrew	18	24	42	38
Luke	19	21	40	53
Spencer	24	15	39	35.5
Caleb	14	9	23	48

Question

Does anybody know when players will officially go on the DL so that we can move them there and add new players without making drops?

ESPN's Projected Standings

And the winner is... Kate! I'd take these with a grain of salt, remember they're only as reliable as ESPN's projections, but Kate comes out fairly far ahead of everyone else. She has the most hitting points (32) and the second most pitching points (27). Things aren't looking so good for Spencer or Mark. Average is by far the closest category, with five teams hitting between .280 and .281. Luke is the laggard at .272, while Kate and Spencer are both at .283.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Total
Kate	5	6	7	7	7	32
Bill	7	8	8	2.5	2	27.5
Luke	6	7	4	8	1	26
Taylor	8	2	5	4	5	24
Mark	2	5	6	2.5	6	21.5
Andrew	4	3	3	6	3	19
Caleb	1	4	1	5	4	15
Spencer	3	1	2	1	8	15

	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP	Total
Caleb	6	5	7	7	8	33
Luke	7	7	4	5	4	27
Kate	4	8	2	6	7	27
Bill	2	3.5	3	8	5	21.5
Spencer	5	3.5	6	3	3	20.5
Andrew	8	6	1	2	2	19
Taylor	3	2	5	1	6	17
Mark	1	1	8	4	1	15

	Hitting	Pitching	Total
Kate	32	27	59
Luke	26	27	53
Bill	27.5	21.5	49
Caleb	15	33	48
Taylor	24	17	41
Andrew	19	19	38
Mark	21.5	15	36.5
Spencer	15	20.5	35.5

McDowell Anaysis

We're ready.

My thoughts on the 2011 draft

I don't have time for a preview with projections, but I thought I'd take a quick look at how teams did in the draft. I guess I'll just go with the draft order, which sadly puts me first. If you're looking for some entertainment, you can also check out my write up from last year. While I nailed Beckham, Roberts, Mauer, and Sizemore as overpays or poor decisions and Chris Perez, Colby Lewis, and Brian Matusz as deals, I also called JJ Hardy Andrew's best pick, and Robinson Cano as his worst. Whoops. Here we go! Again, nothing is set in stone here and it is a long season. We certainly weren't talking about Jose Bautista or Carlos Santana this time last year, but they ended up being two of the very best deals in the entire draft.

Bill - Oh No, Mr. Bill

Strengths: Corner infield, reliever depth
Corner infield had better be a strength, considering I dropped $91 on my three starters (Gonzalez, A-Rod, and Billy Butler). I kept reading that power was in short supply this year, so I spent the big bucks on two guys with a pretty good shot at topping 40 HR and a good all around 1B to help pull up my average. A-Rod is the riskiest - all his in season numbers point to a fairly steady decline, but I talked myself into going with him thanks to a strong spring.

I also ended up with 5 relief pitchers. It hadn't been my exact plan, but with only one established closer and not much money left at the end of the draft, I decided to go with quantity over quality. Rauch will open the year as the Blue Jays closer, as will Uehara if healthy. Throw in deeper sleepers like Balfour and Lowe, and I think I'll cobble together enough saves to be competitive.

Weaknesses: Starting pitching, stolen bases
It is hard to believe that starting pitching is a weakness, considering the fact that I kept two starters (Matusz and Floyd) and drafted Lester for $30 with my first pick, but my only other drafted starter was Clay Buchholz ($18). I'll probably have to address this with a trade at some point, but in the mean time I guess I'll be scouring the waiver wire, especially once Neftali Feliz is officially name the closer and I can cut Mark Lowe.
It is also a bit hard to believe that I'm short on stolen bases, despite keeping Gardner at $4, but I didn't draft another pure speed guy anywhere else in the draft. Abreu and Zobrist will chip in nicely, but the ESPN in draft projections had me as second to last in steals. Maybe Butler really will run this year, pulling me out of the SB cellar!

Best pick: Jason Kubel ($7). Despite a horrendous start to the year, Kubel still hit 21 HR with 92 RBI. If he can split the difference between 2009 and 2010 (~25 HR, 95 RBI), I'm golden.

Worst pick: Clay Buchholz ($17). I paid for upside here, believing in Buchholz's stuff over his numbers. I'm hoping that he can make the leap, translating his nasty stuff into more Ks, but $18 is a ton for a guy who struck out just over 6 batters per nine innings. This really reminds me of my Adam Jones pick from 2010.

Luke - Moscow Trololos
Strengths: Stolen bases
With three guys who could steal 30 or more, plus Derek Jeter, Luke is pretty much set in the category.

Weaknesses: Batting average
And ooh, boy, is it a weakness. Dunn, Hill, Upton, Encarnacion, Figgins, and Arencibia all figure to be significant negatives in batting average. Adding Ichiro, to pair with Dunn, was a nice touch, but you're pushing your luck by piling on an additional four potential batting average drains. Swapping out Figgins for Kendrick would take away 20 bags, but the bump in average and HR might have made this a more balanced team.

Best pick: Mark Trumbo ($1). Trumbo may washout, but for now Luke has the starting 1B for LA and a guy who has hit 5 home runs in spring training while getting good reviews from scouts, for $1. Especially when you factor in keeper potential, Trumbo looks like a great deal.
Honorable mention to Ichiro ($20).

Worst pick: JP Arencibia ($10). This is a bit of a copout, since Arencibia was a keeper, but Luke didn't make any glaring mistakes in the draft. Arencibia as a keeper is tough to swallow when Wieters and Posada went for $8 and $5, respectively, while the keeper Arencibia was switched in for, Edwin Encarnacion, went for $15.

Caleb - Team Murphy
Strengths: Power, starting pitching
This is pretty impressive, considering Caleb came into the draft with the powerless Elvis Andrus and drafted Rajai Davis. He's also getting solid power out of Sean Rodriguez at middle infield. Caleb's starting pitching might be the deepest in the draft, as well. Anchored by Verlander, and supported by Shields and Danks, Caleb might have the best top 3 in the league.

Weaknesses: Injuries, outfield
Caleb also has put together an impressive list of guys who could get hurt at any moment. Morneau seems to be recovering well from his concussion, but he is hardly a sure thing. Quentin hasn't stayed healthy since his breakout season in 2008, and Youkilis is coming off of a season ending injury. Given the price Caleb paid for these guys, there is definite upside there, but tremendous amounts of downside as well.

Also, the outfield is a mess. The aforementioned Carlos Quentin is Caleb's #1, with the one category contributor Rajai Davis being his #2. Matt Joyce and Manny Ramirez are solid sleepers, but I don't know if I'd want to rely on either of them to be a regular starter due to uncertain playing time. Perhaps most tellingly, ESPN's typically bullish projections give an average of 425 AB for these four, well short of full time play.

Best pick: Wade Davis ($7). I remembered Wade Davis being terrible last year, but that simply wasn't backed up by his end of season numbers. A strong finish brought his ERA and WHIP down to respectable levels and he's still very young.
Honorable mention: Justin Verlander ($26). It isn't a steal, but considering the price of pitchers above and below him, definitely good value there. And Verlander is about as safe as they come.

Worst pick(s): Middle relievers ($40 for 5). I'm not a huge fan of paying a ton for middle relievers, considering how inexpensive, yet effective guys are usually available at the end of drafts or emerge as the season goes on. Caleb spent a combined $40 on Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, Brian Fuentes, Alexi Ogando, and Jake McGee. All of them have substantial upside, but at a certain point you have to wonder if he'd have been better off my allocating half of that money to a more proven closer. Would you trade Sale, Bard, Fuentes, Ogando, and McGee for Adrian Gonzalez and four $1 players?

Taylor - Smell the Glove
Strengths: Relief pitchers.
Taylor definitely spent for his two closers (combined $37 for Valverde and Thornton, plus $4 for the Joaquin Benoit handcuff), but he came out of the draft better off for saves than anyone else (excluding Mark and his two kept closers, of course).

Weaknesses: Outfield
Credit his power at other positions, particularly catcher, corner infield, and utility, that a projected total of 43 outfield home runs isn't crippling, but Taylor's outfield is awfully thin. Relying on Alex Gordon to contribute is a dicey proposition, and Raburn is hardly a sure thing.

Best pick: Mark Reynolds ($14). Yes, the batting average will be horrendous, but it is a thin position and Reynolds has spectacular power. I'd much rather have him than EE.
Honorable mention to Denard Span and Yunel Escobar. Two great bounceback possibilities at good prices at a time in the draft when deals were hard to come by.

Worst pick: Last 4
I was afraid that I was going to get scooped on all my relief pitchers and prospects, since Taylor had a little bit more money than I did and had loads of open spots on his roster. Instead he ended up with a lot of low upside pitchers like Vargas and Guthrie. Come on Taylor! Do your deep sleeper research! What are you, planning a move across the country and a wedding or something?


Andrew - Luck Dragons
Strengths: Stolen bases
Andrew has Ellsbury's projected 49 stolen bases supported by an impressive four other players who are projected to steal 20 or more. What is even nicer is that several of those players, such as Choo, Kinsler, and Gutierrez, chip in with home runs as well.

Weaknesses: RP
Although Andrew did a nice job combining League and Aardsma, those are his only two relievers who are expected to get saves. Barring an injury to Mariano Rivera, Andrew is looking at last place in saves.

Best pick: Ian Kinsler ($17). It would be easy to mock Andrew for drafting two second baseman again, but Kinsler could be a steal. In the draft he went for less than Beckham, Hill, and Zobrist, and has infinitely more upside. Considering the fact that Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick went for nearly as much as well, Andrew did a good job striking early to get a deal on a potential stud.
An honorable mention for pairing David Aardsma with Brandon League. Yes, I mocked him for picking Aardsma with the fact that Aardsma has only recently begun walking without crutches, but there really aren't any other options in the Seattle bullpen, so Andrew has that closer situation locked down for $12.

Worst pick: Mike Moustakas ($8). I understand that it was his last pick and that he had money to blow, but by going up to $8 on Moustakas, it really hurts his value long term. Even with a massive breakout I can't see Moustakas getting kept for more than 2 years. Keeper wise, it might have been a better deal to wait and go after later prospects like Hosmer or Chisenhall, while eating a few dollars. Moustakas should be called up earlier than Hosmer, at least, so in terms of 2011 production that should help.

Mark - Reduce. Reuse. Recycle.

Strengths: Relief pitching

Mark came into the draft not needing to do much with his relievers. He did a good job handcuffing Capps to Nathan, so he has the Minnesota closing job locked down and even added Los Angeles Angels' closer Fernando Rodney. Saves are hard to come by, and I imagine we'll see Mark making some deals over the course of the season to shore up other areas of his team.

Weaknesses: Flexibility, volume (at bats/innings pitched), stolen bases

Mark ended up with six DH/1B during the draft - Teixeira, Lee, and Kila Ka'aihue at 1B and Vlad Guerrero, Luke Scott, and Hideki Matsui at DH. While Scott will gain outfield eligibility 2 weeks into the season, that still leaves five players for three spots. Matsui and Vlad both will stay at DH all season, so he'll never be able to start both in a given week.

The other obvious weakness that I see in Mark's team is that he has a lot of guys who aren't expected to get 500+ at bats. The Orioles DH/1B/OF situation is crowded, but Mark has three players in that mess. In a daily league, that would be fine, but with our weekly set up, he is going to be missing a lot of starts. Also, despite starting Julio Borbon and Peter Bourjos, Mark is projected to finish tied for 6th in stolen bases. Sliding Luke Scott into the lineup for Borbon gives Mark some more HR and RBI, but drops him all the way to last in SB.

Best pick:CC Sabathia ($28). Mark needed a front line pitcher, having not kept any starters. He got one of the most reliable pitchers in the AL. He also got a pitcher that will throw a lot of innings. As he is currently starting 4 relievers, having a high IP pitcher will be key for Mark to remain competitive in Ks.

Worst pick: Jake Peavy ($8). If we had done the draft a week ago, this might have been one of the best picks. Late breaking news on Peavy was that he was experiencing shoulder tendinitis and would be shut down until late April. While it is unrelated to the injury he was rehabbing, Peavy has a history of shoulder issues.

Honorable mention: Hideki Matsui ($1). It was only a dollar, but it is more importantly a roster spot. Matsui is a borderline starter in our league and is restricted to the DH spot, where Mark already had Vlad Guerrero.

Kate - All Night Longoria

Strengths: Starting pitching depth

Kate is projected to win the league by 6 points, so there are a lot of strong points on her team, at least from the preseason perspective. While I don't think that Weaver, Price, Anderson, or Cahill will match the hype they have coming into the season, they're all solid pitchers. Kate's top 4 pitchers might be the best in the league and any one of them could be the best pitcher on her team.

Weaknesses: Strikeouts, saves

Kate is projected to finish fifth in strikeouts, and that is with some forecasts that I consider optimistic. Weaver is projected to strikeout almost 9/9 IP, which is lower than last year, but still well above his career numbers. Anderson had a mediocre strikeout rate last year, and none of Duensing, Slowey, or Porcello strike out many batters. It isn't a fatal flaw in her team, but it is a weakness.

A bigger weakness is saves. Just like last year, Kate has Mariano Rivera and lottery tickets. She may have to address that in a midseason trade. With her pitching depth and Mark's excess closers, perhaps they're a match.

Best pick: Matt Wieters ($8). His price far cry from what he went for last year, Wieters still has upside, even if his ceiling gets lower with each passing year without a breakout. Catchers ended up being some solid bargains in the draft this year, and I think Wieters is the best of the bunch.

Honorable mention: Michael Cuddyer ($5). Cuddyer may be key filling in for Kendry Morales for awhile. Although his home run total halved from 2009 to 2010, Cuddyer is still a solid starter. An added bonus: he runs! (19 SB over the last 3 years).

Worst pick: Kendry Morales ($16). The foot injury just scares the hell out of me. Morales still isn't running or doing baseball activities, and now has been shut down due to pain in his foot. At this point, there isn't even a time frame for him to return. It could be April, but it could also be a lot later.

Another quick note - I wonder how Kate is going to do with her keepers next year. It is minor considering how well her 2011 team is projected to do, but aside from Matt Wieters I don't see much long term potential on her roster.

Spencer - The 50%ers

I'm not sure what the percent refers to, perhaps the percentage of his body weight in scotch that he drank over the course of the draft (3-5 drinks or so).

Strengths: Relief pitching, outfield

Spencer did a good job accumulating relievers during the draft. Just like last year, he capitalized on an injury scare from Andrew Bailey to get a potential top reliever for a few bucks below market value. Combined with his keeper Soria, Spencer is pretty much set at closer.

Weaknesses: Infield

Infield is a bit of a disaster for Spencer, at least for the time being. He's currently starting Smoak, Roberts, Peralta, Hardy, and Kendrick. Getting first base eligibility for Lind will help, and will probably allow Willingham to slide into the utility spot. That steal leaves Spencer relying on two of Hardy, Roberts, and Smoak though.

Best pick: Andrew Bailey ($14). There are injury concerns about Bailey, but considering the price of other established closers, Spencer seems to have saved a few dollars here.

Honorable mention for Spencer picking up a handful of top prospects in Carlos Carrasco, Desmond Jenning, and Jesus Montero for $3 or $4 each.

Worst pick: No one. Spencer doesn't have any egregious over pays on his team, but he did leave $12 on the table. While that financial flexibility at the end allowed him to collect a nice set of high upside prospects at fair prices, it also could have turned Justin Morneau into Mark Teixeira or Max Scherzer and Adam Jones into Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. Because Spencer came into the draft with the third largest amount of money left, he really needed to suck it up and spend what the market dictated.

Happy Draft Day Everyone!

May the best woman win!

Luke Scott

apparently was dropped before he was traded to me. I'll sub him out for Soria please, commish.

Question

What happens if a player retires mid-contract? Voided, right? The only player I could really see that happening with is Nathan if he suffers a setback in recovery from Tommy John, but I don't think we've addressed this specifically.

Keepers are in.

Let's pick them apart.

Only one three year contract - for Carlos Santana. Probably the most deserving player for a three year contract out there, but it's interesting that the rest of us are all so non-committal to our keepers.

Speaking of non-committal - Andrew, Kate, Taylor and Spencer will all be starting from keeper scratch in 2012. No contracts greater than one year. Financially conservative, but will it bite them in the ass when their current keepers do well and they have to struggle to find 5 more?

My votes:
Best overall keeper value: I'm gonna take Spencer over Bill on this one. Spencer only spent a bit more, and he has a stronger crop of keepers. I think Kate is runner up - yeah, she spent a lot, but holy shit...

Worst overall keeper value: This is tough, because there aren't any bad sets of keepers...I think it comes down to me and Taylor. I'm spending a decent amount of money and not really holding on to any 5 star players. Taylor's got some risk in expensive keepers Pedroia and Cabrera, although there's good value in Ortiz and Braden.

Best keeper: David Price ($10). Fantastic value. I'm glad he'll be back on the FA market next season, though. Runners up: Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre.
Worst keeper: Joe Nathan. A two year contract for a guy coming off TJ, and with Matt Capps closing for now. With Chris Perez already providing (some) saves, I don't love this pick. He's not gonna break the bank if it doesn't work out, at least. To me, V-mart, Brett Anderson, or Jesus Montero would have been more tempting options. Runner-up: Edwin Encarnacion. I'm pretty sure Luke thought he was getting him for $2, which is more understandable. He could be the next Jose Bautista, or he could get cut in May. $10 is too much for the level of risk.

Keeper/Contract Issues

If a multi-year keeper is traded to the NL, we have agreed that his salary should be wiped off the books for the next season. However, up for debate is if your keeper becomes a free agent and subsequently signs with a NL team during the off season (or is waived and then picked up by an NL team midseason) should that count against your auction budget for the next season?

In either case, I vote that we handle them just like a trade. Player have all sorts of club and player options at the end of their contracts so I don't think it's really feasible for us to figure all of that out. Plus, deals get restructured so what you thought was a lock for the 3 years is suddenly a free agent after 1.

Keeper Deadline

ESPN says Monday March 14th, or 8 days before the draft. Is that real?

Looking to trade

It is still early (Baseball Prospectus hasn't even been released yet!), but I am still thinking that I'd like to make a deal with my keepers. I have very good keeper depth, but am currently without any top tier players. Below is my list of guys who I consider "keepable" and their cost in 2010. Let me know if you have any interest.

	Pos	2010 cost
C. Santana	C	1
B. Gardner	OF	4
B. Matusz	SP	4
G. Floyd	SP	7
J. Morneau	1B	23
D. Jennings	OF	7
T. Snider	OF	3
M. LaPorta	1B	3