| Position | Name | Salary | Age |
| C | ? | ||
| 1B | Youkilis/? | 12.25 | 32 |
| 2B | Pedroia | 5.75 | 27 |
| 3B | ?/Youkilis | ||
| SS | ? | ||
| LF | Bay | 14 | 32 |
| CF | Ellsbury | 5 | 27 |
| RF | Drew | 14 | 35 |
| DH | Ortiz | 12 | 35 |
One thing that caught my eye is that Kevin Youkilis is only 6 months younger than Jason Bay. While he hasn't been in the majors for as long, because Youkilis didn't make his MLB debut until 25 and didn't stick as a regular until his age 27 season he would have hit free agency at much later age.
Obviously these are some pretty major holes. One key question is will Youkilis still be able to play 3B effectively at the age of 32 after several years of primarily being a first baseman. If he is it gives the Red Sox many more options. One internal option is Lars Anderson; however Anderson has not impressed at AA this year and despite being rather young has "old player" skills - he has some power and a sophisticated approach, but there are starting to be questions about his upside. According to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, several scouts now view him as a second division starter. If Anderson doesn't develop as hoped, there will be several older, short term options from free agency, particularly at first base.
| First Basemen | Age |
| Lance Berkman | 34 |
| Paul Konerko | 34 |
| Derrek Lee | 35 |
| Carlos Pena | 32 |
| Third Basemen | |
| Garrett Atkins | 30 |
| Brandon Inge | 33 |
| Mike Lowell | 36 |
I'm not going to try and predict who will be the most valuable corner infielder from a bunch of not particularly athletic players in their early to mid 30's as the drop off can be pretty steep, but there could be options for a two year contract in there. Local boy Carlos Pena is the one that catches my eye, although he may sign an extension with the Rays as well. The Sox have been linked to Prince Fielder as well as a long term solution at 1B. Prince is signed through 2010 for $9 million/year and would have one more year of arbitration after that. He might be hard to sign to an extension though, as Scott Boras lovse to test the free agent market. That said, he would only be 27 as a free agent after the 2011 season (so one year later than this preview is looking at) and would be a hell of a run producer to lock up long term.
Unsurprisingly, catcher continues to be a major long term hole in the lineup. Fortunately for the Sox, two of the best catchers in the AL will hit free agency after the 2010 season - Victor Martinez (32) and Joe Mauer, at the young age of 28. Sports writers have been talking about the bidding war between the Sox and the Yankees over Mauer already, so he wouldn't come cheaply.
Shortstop has also been a consistent weakness for the Sox ever since the departure of Nomar (and really for the last couple years he was here). Jose Iglesias could be the solution at the position, at least defensively. According to some scouts his fielding rates as an 80 on the 20-80 scale and will hit for average and has good speed, although without much power or plate discipline. He's only 19 (allegedly, ages are fickle for Latin American prospects) and I have no idea what level the Red Sox will start him at in the minor leagues, but with a strong showing he could be a defense first shortstop for the Sox quickly, much like Elvis Andrus for the Rangers this year (although Andrus has a much higher upside). There are also several appealing free agency options at shortstop:
| Shortstops | |
| J.J. Hardy | 28 |
| Cap'n Jetes | 36 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 31 |
Cap'n Jetes won't be a Red Sox player anytime soon as he's a "true Yankee" and the Red Sox are aware that the ability to move to one's left is important for a short stop. Rollins would likely command more years and money than the Red Sox would want to pony up, but JJ Hardy is intriguing because of his age and his bat (this year not withstanding). UZR also has him as a defensive asset (12.0 R/150 games).
Finally there is the bench. This is in flux, but there are a few prospects who could sneak in here. Josh Reddick was Kevin Goldstein's #3 prospect in the Red Sox system coming into this year and he has hit well in Portland (.271/.341/.542) with 12 homeruns, despite missing May with a strained oblique. I could see him as a 4th outfielder getting regular playing time at all 3 outfield positions similar to Ellsbury's rookie year. Assuming he continues to develop he could be a natural replacement for JD Drew in right field.
Mark Wagner may challenge Kottaras for the back up catcher spot, or the Sox could use the two as a cheap catching option if they're not willing to commit tons of money to Mauer or Martinez. Although he's already 25, Wagner has hit well at AA this year (.871 OPS) and has an excellent defensive reputation. I'd be surprised if the Sox kept Kottaras through arbitration with a suitable and cheaper option available, but they won't have to make that decision until after the 2011 season.
So where does this leave the Sox overall? Their offensive payroll without a catcher, shortstop, or corner infielder is $65.4 million; combined with a $40 million pitching staff that totals $105.4 million. Their opening day payroll was $121 million and they're reportedly under budget right now, so that could leave upwards of $40 million available to fill those 3 positions or bolster the starting rotation by resigning Beckett. Joe Mauer could eat up over $20 million/year of that surplus though.
9 comments:
Wagner is a definite possibility as part of a cheap catcher option, though who knows what will happen with Mauer. That said, if I remember right, there have been rumblings that Mauer is very happy in Minnesota, and very well could sign an extension or a below market deal.
Anderson is still pretty good, though the old player skills are concerning. However, a lot of people were worried about Youk's old player skill set, and while the Sox can't take all the credit for him developing in to a top tier 1B, they didn't screw him up either, and hopefully he could help Anderson.
As far as SS goes, if we're lucky, Iglesias in 2011 will be similar to Elvis Andrus. I really don't think we can expect Iglesias to be ready for the bigs next season.
As far as FAs go, I think a lot of these guys are looking like class A free agents, which would hurt. The expected class A pool gets published periodically, and I'll poke around online and see what I can find out. It's somewhat illogical some times, with guys like Scutaro or Mags being class A free agents. I'll take a look, and add a comment.
It's looking like the Sox most interesting young players are all pitchers
I hope I made this clear, but both of these posts are for the off season between the 2010 and 2011 seasons so this is all about a year and a half away.
Well, it looks like I get an F- for reading comprehension.
I think this analysis goes to show how crucial/awesome it would be if the Sox could make a trade for Hanley. He is signed though 2014 (7m, 11m, 15m, 15.5m, 16m) and does not have a no trade clause. If they could get Hanley, that would relieve the pressure of finding a decent CI - you could even put Lowrie at 3rd and still great offensively. Sign Mauer for 20 million and that would give you another 5-10 million for the bench.
Pedroia (2B)
Mauer (C)
Ramirez (SS)
Youkilis (1B)
Bay (LF)
Ortiz (DH)
Drew (RF)
Ellsbury (CF)
Lowrie (3B)
Are you submitting these articles to Prospectus Idol?
Nah, I don't do enough heavy statistical lifting for Prospectus Idol and I don't feel the actual writing is particularly strong. I just think it is fun and interesting to look ahead.
As for Julio Lugo, it might take until the 2010 offseason to clear his salary, but he just was DFAed today! Our long Red Sox national nightmare is over!
Don't sell yourself short, Bill. I read a lot of fantasy articles, blogs, etc., and your stuff is better than most, both in terms of the writing and the quality of the analysis. When I read these posts, I literally thought "It's a shame only a handful of people are seeing this".
A trade for Hanley would be pretty amazing, although he would take an incredible number of prospects. Bowden and Buchholz would likely be the starting points and you might need to include Anderson in there as well. Also, there are some questions about whether or not he can stick at shortstop. UZR has him as a slightly below average shortstop over the last couple years (-0.6 and -2.0 runs/150 games in 2008 and 2009) although I'm not sure how he stacks up with the other metrics.
The Sox are also in a really nice position because of the ability for Lowrie and Youkilis to play multiple positions. This gives them tons of options as to where they can spend their money or use their stable of pitching prospects to acquire starters. Catcher is the only position where they absolutely have to add talent.
I think the fear about Hanley is that he will eventually have to move off of SS. That said, it's not likely to be any time soon. I think the trouble is that the Marlins just aren't in a position to trade Hanley. If they do, they're left with very, very little in terms of talent. They've taken a similar route in the past, but they are currently in the process of paying for a new stadium (just broke ground in early July), though they are only paying for about a third of it. That said, I doubt they'll want to trade their most recognizable and popular player with a new stadium pending.
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