I was reading an article in the Globe (Tony Massarotti's best and worst of the Sox so far this year) and was struck by the number of contracts that come up after the 2010 season. Assuming the Sox don't pick up Ortiz' $12.5 million option, they would be clearing just under $50 of salary after 2010, but would be losing Ortiz, Lowell, Lugo (oh no!!!), Varitek, and most importantly, Josh Beckett. According to Cot's baseball contracts the Red Sox currently have made $43.5 worth of commitments for the 2011 season, not including arbitration eligible players. By comparison, the Yankees have already made $116 million in commitments for the 2011 season, and that is without both Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Of course, the Red Sox only have 6 players signed for the 2011 season, they are:
| Pos'n | ML Srv | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| Drew | of | 10.02 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Youkilis | 1b-3b | 4.093 | 6.25 | 9.375 | 12.25 |
| Pedroia | 2b-ss | 2.041 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| Matsuzaka | rhp | 2 | 8.33 | 8.333 | 10.333 |
| Lester | lhp | 2.075 | 1 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| Tazawa | rhp | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 |
Let's assume that the Red Sox are able to work out an extension with Jason Bay (there aren't many other alternatives in free agency this off season) for 5 years at 14 million per. Let's also assume that Wakefield's $4 million perpetual option gets picked up in the 2009 and 2010 offseasons. Finally, we have the arbitration eligible players. The Sox have had a cheap bullpen thanks to young, cost controlled arms and cheap international signings. However, many of these players will become eligible for arbitration at the same time. I'm assuming that Saito will either have been traded or have retired by the end of the 2010 season and have estimated the salaries for the abitration eligible players (denoted by a *). Without resigning Josh Beckett, the staff would look something like this:
| Rotation | |
| Lester | 5.75 |
| Matsuzaka | 10.33 |
| Wakefield | 4 |
| Bowden | 0.5 |
| Buchholz | 0.5 |
| Total | 21.08 |
| Bullpen | |
| Ramirez | 3.5* |
| Delcarmen | 3.5* |
| Okajima | 3.5* |
| Papelbon | 10* |
| Bard | 0.5 |
| Tazawa | 1.15 |
| Masterson | 0.5 |
| Total | 22.65 |
| Pitching total | 43.73 |
Coming into the 2009 season the Sox had $12 million worth of payroll (just over half to Papelbon) in the bullpen and $35 million on their 6 starting pitchers. If I had to guess I'd say they're likely to keep those approximate proportions - it doesn't make sense to me to spend over $10 million on Okajima, Ramirez, and Delcarmen when younger players could fill those roles, so I'm guess at least one of them is trade bait. All 3 would be in their second year of arbitration so if traded during the 2010 offseason they would be under their new teams control for 2 full years. Going with a pitching budget of approximately $55 million there is definitely room to resign Beckett, especially if they're able to move a bullpen arm. What is incredible to me is the pitching depth the Sox have amassed. Even without Beckett the starting rotation is crowded. Plus prospects like Casey Kelly and Nick Hagadone could be ready during for cups of coffee during the 2010 season.
To top it all of it looks like there will be a ton of pitching available in the 2010 offseason. Below are the interesting starting pitchers (due to skill, age, or in the case of De La Rosa strikeout rate) who are currently slated to be free agents, including 4 or 5 potential #1 starters:
| Pitcher | Age |
| Josh Beckett BOS | 30 |
| Joe Blanton PHI | 29 |
| Jorge De La Rosa COL | 29 |
| Roy Halladay TOR | 33 |
| Cliff Lee CLE | 32 |
| Ted Lilly CHC | 34 |
| Javier Vazquez ATL | 34 |
| Brandon Webb ARI | 31 |
Both in the present and the future the Sox seem to be sitting pretty when it comes to pitching. There are a lot more question marks when it comes to the lineup, but that may have to wait until tomorrow.
8 comments:
The Sox will definitely resign Bay I would think. Any good options at SS in Free Agency? I would love to see them try to trade for Hanley Ramirez... not sure what that would take. Lester, Beckett, Buccholz, Bowden, Wakefield would be solid. Not sure what to do about Dice-K... does he have any trade value even if the Sox paid for most of his salary?
Short stop actually has some very strong options in the 2010 offseason, although that is a year and a half away. Jimmy Rollins, JJ Hardy, and Cap'n Jetes will all be free agents.
This offseason the best player is likely Jack Wilson.
Uh, "best" is a word you should use very loosely when applied to Jack Wilson. He's all glove and no hit, but hi s glove has been declining. I think the Sox are going to have to tough it out one more year, unless they make a blockbuster trade to bring Hanley back. As far as Mark's question, I think Dice K definitely has some trade value, just not at the moment. If he can put together a solid second half, it would boost his value immensely. That said, does he have a no trade clause?
Yeah, looks like full; NTC. "# full no-trade clause:may not be traded without consent, provided player gets his first day of Major League service during a guaranteed contract of at least 6 years after player has been with a professional baseball league team other than a major or minor league team." I'm guessing that he wouldn't waive it, unless maybe going to Seattle (strong Japanese fan base) or some other major city, maybe LA.
Ugh. Can't trade Dice-K then. Looks like we are stuck with him. I wonder if he'd agree to be traded if it meant being saved from being dropped outright (which, I would think, would hurt his future value more plus be an embarrassment)... The problem is, to increase his trade value, Dice-K needs to be given another opportunity to pitch. Hopefully that won't cost us the division (or playoffs).
I really don't think he has much trade value anyway. The combination of the length of time left on his contract and the $ is pretty nasty. Hopefully he turns it around, but he looks like a 5 inning pitcher in the bigs.
His inability to throw strikes drives me fucking nuts. At least last year, he managed to nibble effectively.
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