I don't feel that this comment is too egregious. He isn't saying that Granderson shouldn't hit homeruns, but that he shouldn't focus on them too much as that could negatively affect his approach. Although he is hitting tons of homeruns (13 so far, on pace for 42 according to ESPN's extrapolation) his slugging percentage is actually the same as last year thanks to the fact that he's only hit 5 doubles and 1 triple. His batting average and OBP are slightly down as well. While Granderson has been a much better fantasy hitter this year, in "real" baseball he isn't any better than last year.
A slugging percentage with more homeruns is much much better than a similar slugging percentage with fewer homeruns in fantasy and in real baseball. I could see Leyland's point if his slugging was way down, but hitting a homerun is always better than hitting a double. Granderson's focus is exactly where it should be - hitting the ball as hard and as far as possible. He isn't striking out more and is hitting far less ground balls than last year while maintaining the same line drive rate. Whatever his approach is this year, it is getting better results than last year.
BP doesn't agree with you that he's more valuable this year either. His VORPr (basically VORP/game, so it is a rate stat) is pretty much the same as last year (.286 in 2008, .279 in 2009). This includes baserunning as well, but there isn't much difference between how much he's running or his success rate between 2008 (12/16, 75%) or this year (9/11, 81%). Despite the increase in homeruns, his isolated power is flat.
No one is arguing that hitting a double is better than homerun, that is just a straw man. Since his slugging is the same, is a homerun more valuable than 2 doubles?
One thing I just noticed that would indicate better things are coming for Granderson is that his BABIP is a little low for his line drive % (.281 vs a predicted .305). The more accurate (and more complicated) predictors of BABIP would be even more favorable to Granderson as they incorporate speed.
All other things being equal (avg + on base primarily) , it has to be more beneficial to have a higher ratio of home runs in your total base count than it is to have a more equal distribution of extra base hits. A homerun is at worst one guaranteed run! I could hit doubles all day and never score.
If he was striking out a lot more, hitting more ground balls, and average and on base plummeted, I could see Leyland's point. I would expect that b/c he is hitting a lot more fly balls, he will eventually get more doubles too. While he may be doing as well as last year, I think him showing more power is a sign of better things to come.
Let's stick with rate stats, because I think they'll be easier to compare. Is a homerun and 2 singles in 10 AB worth more than 3 doubles? both give you a .300 average and a .600 slugging, but I have no idea how those hits compare in generating runs. Granderson's extra base hit percentage (xbh %) is also down - from 45% in his career year of 2007 to 40% last year and now down to 35% this year, which explains why he's able to hit a lot more homeruns without increasing his slugging or isolated power.
But, in the end, it really doesn't matter. All Leyland said was that he didn't want Granderson to change his approach because of his HR binge. They're not messing with his swing to try and generate more doubles and triples and they're not worried about the lack of doubles so far (it has probably just been a little good luck).
6 comments:
I don't feel that this comment is too egregious. He isn't saying that Granderson shouldn't hit homeruns, but that he shouldn't focus on them too much as that could negatively affect his approach. Although he is hitting tons of homeruns (13 so far, on pace for 42 according to ESPN's extrapolation) his slugging percentage is actually the same as last year thanks to the fact that he's only hit 5 doubles and 1 triple. His batting average and OBP are slightly down as well. While Granderson has been a much better fantasy hitter this year, in "real" baseball he isn't any better than last year.
A slugging percentage with more homeruns is much much better than a similar slugging percentage with fewer homeruns in fantasy and in real baseball. I could see Leyland's point if his slugging was way down, but hitting a homerun is always better than hitting a double. Granderson's focus is exactly where it should be - hitting the ball as hard and as far as possible. He isn't striking out more and is hitting far less ground balls than last year while maintaining the same line drive rate. Whatever his approach is this year, it is getting better results than last year.
BP doesn't agree with you that he's more valuable this year either. His VORPr (basically VORP/game, so it is a rate stat) is pretty much the same as last year (.286 in 2008, .279 in 2009). This includes baserunning as well, but there isn't much difference between how much he's running or his success rate between 2008 (12/16, 75%) or this year (9/11, 81%). Despite the increase in homeruns, his isolated power is flat.
No one is arguing that hitting a double is better than homerun, that is just a straw man. Since his slugging is the same, is a homerun more valuable than 2 doubles?
One thing I just noticed that would indicate better things are coming for Granderson is that his BABIP is a little low for his line drive % (.281 vs a predicted .305). The more accurate (and more complicated) predictors of BABIP would be even more favorable to Granderson as they incorporate speed.
All other things being equal (avg + on base primarily) , it has to be more beneficial to have a higher ratio of home runs in your total base count than it is to have a more equal distribution of extra base hits. A homerun is at worst one guaranteed run! I could hit doubles all day and never score.
If he was striking out a lot more, hitting more ground balls, and average and on base plummeted, I could see Leyland's point. I would expect that b/c he is hitting a lot more fly balls, he will eventually get more doubles too. While he may be doing as well as last year, I think him showing more power is a sign of better things to come.
Let's stick with rate stats, because I think they'll be easier to compare. Is a homerun and 2 singles in 10 AB worth more than 3 doubles? both give you a .300 average and a .600 slugging, but I have no idea how those hits compare in generating runs. Granderson's extra base hit percentage (xbh %) is also down - from 45% in his career year of 2007 to 40% last year and now down to 35% this year, which explains why he's able to hit a lot more homeruns without increasing his slugging or isolated power.
But, in the end, it really doesn't matter. All Leyland said was that he didn't want Granderson to change his approach because of his HR binge. They're not messing with his swing to try and generate more doubles and triples and they're not worried about the lack of doubles so far (it has probably just been a little good luck).
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