Alright, well I'll kick off the trade analysis from my perspective only. As I surveyed the league it became immediately clear that people only wanted 4 players from me really: Teix, Felix, Damon, and Rivera, with most of the focus on Teix and Felix. So it was going to be tough for me to pull of multiple trades.
I view this trade as high risk / high reward for me. Cruz, Hill, and Quentin are all late round keepers with at least 2 years more of keepability, which was big for me (I was looking at some other offers with players who could only be kept one more year, so I like the long-term potential here). That said, they all have question marks - Cruz, regarding average and whether he can do this for a full season, Hill regarding injuries and again, putting it together for a full season, and Quentin with injuries.
2011 will be an interesting year in the league as tons of the best players will come off the books. If this trade pans out and Cruz and Quentin mash next year and I have them in the late teens round-wise, I should be in great shape for that year. I had better trades in terms of next year, but I like this long-term wise for me.
Anyway, I don't have much else to trade so for now I'll go quiet. If Smoltz, Liriano, or Chamberlain start to heat up or anyone has an interest in Aaron Hill or A-rod, they'd be the two keepers that I'd still look to upgrade.
18 comments:
To start out, I was in on the Teixeira/Felix negotiations, offering Pedroia and Markakis for Teix, Felix, and Mariano. I don't want sounds bitter here, but I don't like the trade for either side. I think my offer was better to Spencer because there are so many question marks associated with Hill, Cruz, and Quentin. Pedroia and Markakis are rock solid keepers. When you're giving up a first round talent, you want to make sure that you're getting someone of similar caliber in return.
On Luke's side, there are several things that are a bit of a head scratcher. First, mortgaging several cheap keepers for a run at it this year. Luke is currently 22.5 points out of first place, with some very rosy projections I have him gaining 16 points. I thin it will be much closer to 10 or 12. He didn't improve his offense much (the step down from Hill to Lowrie could be brutal, and Damon likely won't be as productive as Cruz from here on out). The categories where Luke improved the most (saves, K) are ones where he doesn't have many points to gain. He's second in K right now at the top of a group of 4, and now will likely catch Andrew. Even with 3 closers I'm not sure he can catch Caleb and Mark in saves. The big gains are likely from ERA and WHIP, but ERA in particular can be hard to move. For example, with 60% of the season remaining it would take an ERA of 3.65 to get his team ERA down to 4.
Then again, if things don't work out for him he can always spin some of these players later in the season for fairly comparable keepers. Although 60% of a season of King Felix is worth a hell of a lot more than a single month.
ah, well to defend myself a bit (and actually Luke's ability to potentially spin these off later does make some sense, although I think he'll have a hard time getting comparable keepers).
Pedroia and Markakis are bigger names for sure, but they are in earlier rounds and Markakis can only be kept once more. Pedroia has shown no power this year (only 2 HRs) and Markakis only has 8HRs and 2SB. Now, those guys are a hell of a lot less likely to fall off a cliff than Cruz or Quentin, but the upside considering the keeper round and length is very different. If Pedroia doesn't hit 20 HRs, that hurts him, and if Markakis isn't running, that hurts him too. So neither are Evan Longoria.
Player (Keeper round this year, remaining years eligible to be kept):
Aaron Hill (16, 3)
Cruz (19, 2)
Quentin (22,2)
vs.
Pedroia (8, 2)
Markakis (10,1)
Of course, if I'd done Bill's trade, I'd still have Damon and Sherrill to try to piece together for that 5th keeper. But judging in how little interest there was in those pieces now anyway, plus Damon's injury risk and Sherill's trade risk, I liked Luke's deal better.
Of course, Luke could be the real winner here by making the same deal Bill was offering me, and then basically getting Sherill, Damon, and Hafner from me for free.
I gotta say, I'm pretty impressed by Luke's haul. Bill may be right, though, that it doesn't help him where he needs it, but keep in mind that Luke still acquired two excellent keepers - Teix and Felix. They'll cost him higher rounds, but Luke didn't have any high round keepers in the first place. So I don't think Luke did any harm at all to his keeper situation (especially as someone who doesn't love Quentin, and isn't sure Hill is worthy of keeper designation) if it sets him up to stand a better chance to win or just to make more trades later, good for him.
After a little more thought, I really do think Spencer could have gotten more for this package. Cruz has potential to be a world-beater, but his numbers won't be better than Teix's. Quentin can't stay healthy (and is hitting .230 on the season...).
Are injuries really Hill's question marks? He had a lingering concussion last year, which is a pretty flukey injury, and has otherwise been very healthy this season and in '07. I'd think his question mark is whether or not his early season stats are for real or not...his numbers started to drop off in May, and in June he's hit .220/.261/.366. He still has excellent numbers for the second basemen in our league, but I'm not sure he's as good as those early numbers indicated.
What's not keeper worthy about Hill? He's already got 15 jacks, so even if he slows down, you've got a 2B hitting .290 20 HRs in a decent lineup with a few SBs mixed in. I think he's definitely keeper worthy.
The issue is that none of the smaller pieces would have netted me much keeper wise - so it was better for me to throw in everything to Luke rather than try to peddle someone like Sherill invidually who would only have netted me a prospect-type in return. If I keep A-Rod, Youk, Cruz, Hill, and Quentin next year, I feel pretty good about that. That's a hell of a lot of value with picks 2-8 entirely intact.
He's already hit 15 HRs, so if he slows down and only hits 20 its OK? Wouldn't him just hitting 5 HR for the rest of the season indicate that he's not good keeper material?
I really like Hill, and he definitely has good value and isn't a terrible keeper at all, I just think that Teix and Felix are much safer bets. They cost more, but is there any question that they're worth it?
I just re-read your post and I think you mean he'll be a 20 HR hitter next year, not this year, which makes more sense to me and is probably accurate.
Overall, I'd say Hill's overall line is fairly indicative of his production going forward. I think Hill's recent slump is largely BABIP based. Of course, his really hot start was also fueled by high BABIP I think his overall line will be similar to what he's done so far, if you really tone down the HR- his HR/FB is insane, along the lines of peak David Ortiz, and that isn't sustainable.
Well, not to belabor this too much (and I don't entirely disagree with you), but I guess I've altered my view to where the key to the league is having late round keepers - the Uptons, Longorias, and the Cruz's. Stars and scrubs doesn't work with rosters this big. So Texiera, Felix, and Damon all performed like top tier picks for me this year, but it didn't matter with so much crap in between - some of that was because of bad picks, but a lot was missing picks in the first 10 rounds.
Bill took Bay in the first round this year, Luke took Holliday - is the difference between Teixiera and Bay or Holliday bigger than the difference between Aaron Hill in the 16th and Yuniesky Betancourt, JP Howell, Saito, and Chris Ray? I'd rather have Hill, and I think if you look at the top 3 teams this year, they all have those stud-late round keeper types. To me, the roster size being as big as it is, it's more important to have those early picks to fill in with solid players, when it's so hard to find value in the later rounds...
I can't really disagree with that. I think you're right about the production drop-off, but where I differ slightly is that I think when you spend a first round pick on Teixeira vs. a 15th round pick on a guy who puts up numbers that are almost as good, you're not just paying the higher price for the slightly better production, you're also paying it for the consistency. Teix has been putting up great numbers for years now, while the Teix-light you get with a later round pick has only been putting up Teix-like numbers for a season, maybe two, and it's a lot harder to guarantee that he'll do it again next year. So, basically, you're absolutely right that it's high-risk, high-reward.
Yup, it's a good point. You know Teix is good for .300 30HRs, whereas there's probably a 5% chance Nelson Cruz is in a platoon role next year...
For cautionary tales with keepers, look at either:
a) Fausto Carmona
b) Spencer's entire keeper roster for this year
I hope Coco wasn't a big part of the deal - he's likely out for the season with labrum surgery.
Also, my main point is that if you're going to totally mortgage your season, trade away EVERYONE of value, including guys who had potential long term value wouldn't you want to get 1 blue chip keeper? While the difference between Teixeira and Bay or Holliday isn't massive (although Holliday has disappointed thus far) this year's first round class was an anomaly. Three big name players (Bay, Holliday, Sabathia) came from the NL to the AL between the drafts. Last year there were 2 picks in the first round and 4 in the second. Those players (in order) were Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Travis Hafner, and Jonathan Papelbon. From that group there were plenty of disappointments, gambles, and picks that seemed like an over reach. The difference between taking Teixeira and a question mark in the first round is huge, especially when you could consider Teixeira your "5th" keeper.
I suppose. I guess I'm banking on Cruz being a blue chip keeper and Hill and Quentin being damn good ones. Hill hit his 16th HR tonight BTW....
Well, I'm pretty happy with this deal.
No, Coco wasn't a big part of the deal, really he wasn't any part at all. I just traded Coco, Giambi, and Wuertz to Spencer rather than dropping them.
Um, that was a joke. Coco has been pretty worthless this year, except for a few stolen bases.
Haha, okay, gotcha. Yeah, Coco has been awful.
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