Another Bartlett

Based on Caleb's Ibanez comment, I thought I'd take a look at another player who is having a ridiculous year - Jason Bartlett. Barlett is 29, turning 30 in October, and has been a regular since 2006. He's never been a top prospect and at 6'0"/185 isn't someone who was projected to hit for power. Barlett has been a useful player over the last 3 years providing solid defense and about average offensive production at shortstop. He was even voted the Rays MVP for 2008, although that was a pretty terrible decision in my book. Coming into this season Bartlett's OPS the previous three years were .760, .699, and .690.

This year Barlett is hitting.373/.418/.596 for an astonishing OPS of over 1. His batting average and OBP are both 100 points higher than his career averages, while his slugging is over .200 higher than his career average. Barlett has already hit a career high 7 homeruns and has stolen 14 bases, well on his way to breaking his previous high of 23 in 2007. So just how is he doing it?

1. He's hitting more balls in the air.
Barlett has gone from hitting groundballs in 45-50% of his balls in play to just under 35%, which is very low. The decrease in GB % is made up by approximately equal increases in FB % and LD %. The typical hitter will hit 45-50% groundballs, 20% line drives, and the remaining 30% as fly balls.

2. He's hitting a preposterous number of line drives.
Over the past 4 years Barlett has hit line drives in around 20% of his balls in play. This year that number has climbed to 28.2% and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has climbed to .405. While both the line drive percentage and the BABIP are unsustainably high and he is likely to regress back to around 20%, given the number of line drives he has hit, his current BABIP is not particularly lucky.

3. Fly balls are going for extra bases
Barlett's isolated power (ISO, slugging-batting average) is currently at .223, which is very high. As of right now, Bartlett's ISO is just below Ryan Howards' and is on par with Dan Uggla's career average ISO. Of the fly balls he's hitting, 13.7% are leaving the park. While the number itself isn't unreasonable, his previous career high was 4.9%. 13.7% is on par with Vernon Wells or Nick Markakis, and is well above career averages for Dustin Pedroia (~6%) or Alex Rios (~8%).

4. He is on base more often, running more when on base, and running more effectively
Barlett currently has 14 steals with only one caught stealing (94%); coming into this year his career average was 80%. He is also running more often when on bases, running approximately 24% of the time he reaches base (this is a back of the envelope calculation - simply (H+BB-HR-3B)/(SB+CS) and doesn't account for multiple SB attempt/time on base), up from 17.5% the previous year with the Rays and 15% in his last year with the Twins. The increased rate of stolen base attempts coupled with a career high OBP means that Barlett is on pace for 51 stolen bases, more than double his previous career high of 23.

Overall it has been an amazing season for Barlett. While I think the power numbers will come back down to earth, I haven't read any articles about a new approach or altered swing mechanics to lead me to believe these changes are real, especially in HR/FB and his LD%, the stolen base production might be maintained. The Rays have shown they will run frequently (77 SB, most in the AL) and efficiently (90% success rate) which leads me to believe that they're very effective at teaching baserunning techniques. Even if Barlett's OBP drops to .370 (his previous career high) for the remainder of the season, if Barlett maintains a 90% success rate while running 24% of the time he will steal another 27 bases. On the other hand, if his HR/FB drops to 7% (a career high, but approximately Dustin Pedroia), he'll hit another 7 homeruns. However, it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't meet that projection. Still, 15 HR and 40 SB isn't bad. Congrats Kate, if Bartlett can keep up the power at all you may have ended up with Brian Roberts for an 11th round pick, but I'm not sure I'd go penciling him in as a keeper just yet.