We're about a month into the season now (ESPN says 11.2% of the season) and some clear trends are emerging. My pitching stinks worse than a tire fire at a waste water treatment plant. The Red Sox starters are almost as bad as mine. Taylor already has more saves than ESPN predicted for him for the entire year. Given we're a month in, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at how everyone's bold predictions are doing.
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
10 comments:
oof. wrote the summary of your Hanley prediction about 8 hours early....
Martin has been a disaster from a Bold Predictions standpoint, but I'm cautiously optimistic about the rest of his season. His BABIP is 40-50 points lower than his MLB career average so I don't think he'll hit .221 the rest of the way, and he's stolen 6 bases despite a measly .255 OBP, which puts him on pace to exceed last year's numbers even if he doesn't start getting on base more. I'd certainly have liked to see more power at this stage, but I'm hopeful he gets better than he's been. And that he's not injured.
Wow, I didn't realize just how good Brantley's contact rates have been this year. He's in Marco Scutaro territory. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up.
?Perhaps suggesting that a player who was going to miss the first month of the season would somehow go 40 hr/sb was just a tad optimistic.
Fortunately for me and the Sox it looks like Hanley's injury is pretty minor.
Also, checking in on one of my bonus predictions - Beltran and Jose Ramirez don't finish with 75 places of each other on the ESPN Player Rater. That's looking like a win for me both trade wise and prediction wise! Jose Ramirez is 100 places ahead of Beltran on the player rater. Unfortunately, Ramirez is still #268 (we only roster 192 + DL players). Talk about a lose lose deal...
Oh, also, congrats to Spencer who has the worst player rostered right now (Taijuan Walker, #447).
Don't worry, though Spencer. I drafted the worst player so far this year - TJ House who is literally the worst player in the entire league right now.
If it makes you feel any better, you guys, Michael Saunders still has 0 hr and 0 sb. And had fluid drained from his knee. That may have been the stupidest bold prediction ever. And Bill was trying to tell me it wasn't bold enough!
Asshole.
You helped talk me out of keeping Chris Archer, so we'll call it even.
It's a shame I didn't make a bold prediction for A-rod.
Saunders is back on the DL. Can we retroactively make it 20R 20RBI?
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