2015 Draft Recap Part I: Taylor, Kate, Spencer, and Caleb
It was a great draft with over half the league in Concord,
MA to draft/mock each other in person. I’m going to give my usual quick take on
a handful of picks for each team. We’re going through in reverse order of last
year’s standings. Don't get too down if I pan a pick you liked, from the 2013 draft I recommended Curtis Granderson, who went on to hit a whopping 7 homers, and panned my pick of Alex Cobb, who went on to be a keeper after being traded to Caleb in the offseason for Frieri and Griffin (Whoops!).
Edit: Apologies to Spencer, who actually finished in 3rd place last year. I misremembered the team names, and put him in this article at 6th when it should have been Mark's team.
Taylor
Taylor’s team has some issues in a couple categories, most
notably saves, where ESPN projects him to get 9, 28 behind Andrew’s 2nd
to last place total of 37, and 41 saves behind Spencer in 6th. Amazingly, ESPN is actually the most optimistic of the three projections I've looked at. Power
is likely to be an issue as well, with Taylor in last in homers for all three
standings I’ve put together (ESPN, Fangraphs Depth Charts, Fangraphs Fan
Projections).
Best Pick
Chase Headley (3B, $3). Great value on Headley here, who was
consistently ranked as a starting third basemen in all projections I used.
Headley won’t blow you out of the water in any category, but with the short
porch in Yankee Stadium he has some power upside, even if he never matches his
2012 season with the Padres. If things break just right here, he could be
looking at a mid to late career resurgence much like Adrian Beltre once he
moved out of Seattle, complete with that one completely anomalous season followed by years of disappointment prior to consistent success.
Honorable mention: Kennys Vargas (DH, $1), Austin Jackson
(OF, $11)
Worst Pick
Sonny Gray (SP, $15). This was a discount on where I thought
Gray would end up in the draft, but still more than I thought he was worth. Gray’s
strikeout rate took a huge step back last year (9.42 to 7.52 K/9), and his
swinging strike rates back up this decline (a below average 8.7% in 2014). Gray
could still put up solid numbers, especially pitching in a favorable park like
Oakland, but with Iwakuma already in the fold, I’m not sure Taylor can remain competitive
in strikeouts.
Honorable mention: Anibal Sanchez (SP, $15) for similar
reasons to Gray; Jose Reyes (SS, $30, keeper)
Things are looking up if…
Austin Jackson, Alex Rios, Anibal Sanchez, and Sonny Gray
return to their 2013 forms; Miguel Cabrera and Jose Reyes stay healthy.
It all goes to shit if…
Taylor is unable to add saves via the waiver wire or trades
(no team has ever won with fewer than 2.5 pts in a category), Taylor’s starters
pile up the innings, but not the strikeouts.
Kate
Kate’s team has the best projected pitching (33.5 points),
but a weak offense (14 points, worst). Given that she spent $98 on pitching,
that isn’t a huge surprise, but she does have some interesting upside offensive
players.
Best Pick
Marcus Semien (2B, 3B, $9) A big strength of Kate’s offense
is the positional flexibility, and Semien best exemplifies this. Coming into
the season he has 2B and 3B eligibility, but he’s expected to be the Oakland
shortstop. Kate can use this flexibility to maximize starts and minimize the
impact of injuries, while potentially getting double digit homers and steals
out of a middle infielder.
Honorable Mention: Oswaldo Arcia (OF, $11) great power for a solid price.
Worst Pick
Matt Wieters (C, $12) Wieters is coming off of Tommy John surgery, which could cause the Orioles to be a bit protective of him and not play him quite as much. It's been less than a year since Wieter's surgery, and while position players recover faster than pitchers, it looks like Wieters might not be ready for opening day. Mike Zunino ($1) would have provided nice power or John Jaso ($1) would have provided more balanced, all around numbers.
Honorable mention: Prince Fielder (1B, $25) and Koji Uehara (RP, $20) a lot of risk for both, thanks to age and injuries.
Things are looking up if…
Kate’s pitching is as good as advertised, Teixeira’s power
bounces back allowing her to trade an infielder for an upgrade at outfield.
It all goes to shit if…
An injury to an outfielder, particularly Jose Bautista or
even Oswaldo Arcia. Although Kate has spectacular infield depth and
flexibility, an injury to Bautista or Arcia would mean losing ground in homers,
an already weak category. Also, with no bench pitchers, she’s really counting
on her staff staying healthy.
Spencer
Spencer’s looking for bouncebacks from a ton of players,
whom he scooped up at big discounts from where they were last year, including
Jason Kipnis, Shin-Soo Choo, Brett Lawrie, and CC Sabathia. He may need some
help in pitching though, as ESPN doesn’t care for his staff (17.5 pts, tied for
6th) and most of those are coming from a big IP advantage, leading
to solid win and strikeout numbers.
Best Pick
Travis Snider (OF, $2). Just kidding. But I do love me some
Travis Snider.
Brett Lawrie (2B, 3B, $7). Lawrie has fallen a long way
since his dynamic debut, which led to Andrew keeping him on a two year deal. If
Oakland can remake him and recapture some of his success in Toronto he’d be a
nice pickup for Spencer for this year, and maybe even next. If not, a 2B/3B who
gets about 20 HR/SB combined isn’t bad either.
Honorable mention: Jason Kipnis (2B, $18); Nathan Eovaldi (SP, $4), great stuff,
poor results. Spencer’s pitching staff will need the Yanks to harness that
stuff.
Worst Pick
Elvis Andrus (SS, $18). Shortstop was a fairly thin position
this year, but Andrus is a one category guy in a three year decline. Spencer
probably could have saved $5 and gotten similar category production out of
Alcides Escobar or much better overall value out of Marcus Semien (see above).
Honorable mention: Dalton Pompey (OF, $5). Truth be told, there aren't really any other strong contenders for honorable mention. Spencer spent so much money on his keepers and I was pretty much OK with his mid-cost picks that there wasn't too much to worry about. That said, after scrimping and saving where he could through the second half of the draft, spending $5 on Pompey with several speed only outfielders going undrafted has to sting.
Things are looking up if…
The Fans are right and ESPN is wrong about projections. Spencer is able to cobble together an
effective pitching staff despite most of his projected pitching points coming
from volume (1184 IP, tied for most IP) rather than quality (last or second to
last in ERA and WHIP in all three standings).
It all goes to shit if…
Spencer’s pitching is as bad as the projections make it out
to be. Because that’d be some really, really bad pitching.
Caleb
With an extremely nice and balanced set of keepers, Caleb
came into the draft in good shape, and the final result is a solid, all around
team with no glaring weaknesses. Interestingly, he also doesn’t have any categories
where he’s projected to finish first, although he’s a handful of runs, stolen
bases, or saves out of first. All three projected standings peg Caleb as a
contender, including the Fangraphs Fans Projections, which tab him as the team to
beat.
Best Pick
Danny Santana (SS, OF, $6). Santana won’t repeat his absurd
.405 BABIP or .319 batting average from last year, but he doesn’t need to in
order to be valuable. Santana displayed solid power for a middle infielder
(.150 ISO, identical to Manny Machado’s) and with a full season of games, Santana
could approach 10 HR and 30 SB. Not bad for $6.
Honorable mention: Mike Napoli (1B, $12), good cheap power;
Neftali Feliz (RP, $6), solid option for second half saves or a piece to spin
off in a dump trade.
Worst Pick
Manny Machado (3B, $23). Ah, the classic Murphy Brother
Bidding War (stay tuned to the second half for the McDowell equivalent).
Machado is an absolutely elite baseball player, and still unbelievably young
(won’t turn 23 until July), but his numbers aren’t there yet for fantasy,
having never hit 20 home runs or stolen 10 bases. When the season ends, there
might not be a ton of difference fantasy wise between Machado and Chase
Headley, aside from $20 in draft money.
Honorable mention: Greg Holland (RP, $24), a great pitcher,
but $24 is an awful lot for a closer.
Things are looking up if…
Evan Gattis’ wrist injury isn’t a big deal, and he produces like
he did down the stretch last year. Springer is an elite power/speed combo, and
Kluber doubles down on his elite 2014. Machado stays healthy and develops more
home run power.
It all goes to shit if…
Springer's strikeout rate keeps his average in Chris Carter territory, but with less power. Gattis’
wrist injury is more serious than currently believed (post draft injury, so
Caleb is a bit blindsided). Doolittle never gets the closer job back from recent
addition Tyler Clippard.
8 comments:
oh man this was awesome. best one yet! can't wait for part 2.
Yeah this is excellent, Bill.
One small correction - I bid against Kate for Machado, not Luke. Luke was actively Gchatting me in shock that anyone was spending so much on Machado...and then he realized it was me. His exact words were:
Okay now this is stupid
Wait
That was you!
Wtf!!!!
Oh, and Pedroia is my best pick. You'll see. You'll all see.
Ah, right. Had misremembered that. A showdown at the table.
I could definitely see Pedroia being a solid pick, hitting towards the top of the strong Red Sox lineup. But his upside is ~12 HR, 20 SB, so I think the case can be made for Santana over him, since Santana might end up with the same SB/HR totals.
I agree with most of these, but for the sake of generating some discussion I'd like to quibble with the Danny Santana pick. Tony Blengino wrote an article yesterday saying that his granular batted ball data says Santana should've had about a .280 OBP last year. I doubt he can get close to 30 steals if that's his OBP this year. That said, $6 is cheap, and a .240 hitter with 10 HR and 20 SB could be enough to be profitable at that price. He's also young and could take a step forward in skills to make up for BABIP regression. I just don't think he has much upside.
I also agree with Caleb that Pedroia is his best pick. Tons of upside in what I think will be the AL's best offense. Sure, his HR/SB numbers might be about the same as Santana's, but he ought to have a much better AVG and could score 90+ runs.
The granular batted ball data is interesting, and hadn't come out yet when I wrote this up. I do think it is a bit of a red flag, but the granular batted ball data is fairly new (as far as I know), and I wonder how much year to year consistency is there. Since Santana is only 24, I do think there is room for some growth in terms of approach and strength to help offset BABIP regression.
I'm not sure what data Blengino has access to, exactly. It's something proprietary that I believe he said he used while working for various MLB teams. I think he has a lot of confidence in it, but we don't get to look under the hood to verify that for ourselves.
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