First of all, apologies to Spencer, who actually finished in 3rd
place last year. I misremembered the team names, and put him in Part I at 6th place, when it
should have been Mark there and Spencer at 3rd, in this
article.
Mark
With just under $200 to play with in the draft, and three
kept pitchers for $51, to go along with JD Martinez and Steve Pearce at $10 each,
Mark promptly spent $124 of that to fill out his infield, including snagging
three of the first six picks for a whopping $105. With nine players to go and
$11 left, Mark threw out Yu Darvish at $3, followed by crickets, leaving him 8
$1 players to round out his roster (including three starters). The ESPN
projections are high on his hitting (25 points, third best), but pretty down on
his pitching (14 points, worst), with Mark coming up way short on strikeouts
and wins.
Best Pick
Ian Kinsler (2B, $19) With much less reliable players like
Kipnis and Pedroia going for the same amount, Mark snagged a really nice value
with Kinsler here. The homers and steals are down a bit from his Texas heyday,
but with about 15 of each and plenty of runs and RBI and a powerful Tigers
lineup, Kinsler is probably the best value on Mark’s roster. The stars and scrubs approach left Mark without a ton of depth, so safe and solid is a good way to go for his team, as well.
Honorable mention: Kendrys Morales (1B, $1); Joe Nathan (RP,
$7) no, he’s not particularly good anymore, but he’s still a closer and was the
same cost as guys who are expected to only have the job a month.
Worst Pick
Salvador Perez (C, $14) Salvador Perez is a pretty good
catcher, but a lot of his value in fantasy comes from straight up volume of at
bats. Perez had over 600 plate appearances last year, more than 10% more than
the next catcher in the AL (Brian McCann, 538). That volume lets him tally HR,
RBI, and R despite being mediocre offensively. However, the Royals are planning
on giving him more rest next year, which is a very reasonable thing to do after
KC got to see what 150+ games at catcher does to someone first hand (Jason
Kendall, come on down!). Unfortunately, that will ding his fantasy value a good
bit. With so little money left at that stage of the draft and other positions
to fill, Mark could have gone cheap on catcher (Mike Zunino? John Jaso?), while
improving the team overall.
Honorable mention: Yu Darvish (SP, $3) With Darvish out for
the season with Tommy John, he makes an interesting player to snag and stash
for next year, but not for $3, including all of your remaining discretionary
money.
Things are looking up if…
Mark can find solid starters on waivers or via trades. Mark
was last in projected strikeouts by over 60, but actually leads the league in
K/9 by a substantial amount. Of course, he has a lineup of three starters (topping out at 170 IP for
Richards and Tanaka) and five relievers, so that makes a big difference.
It all goes to shit if…
A significant injury to Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, or
Ellsbury or Martinez would be difficult to overcome. A set back from Richards
or Tanaka would leave Happ as the #2 starter and Mark having to construct a
rotation almost from scratch.
Andrew
Andrew’s team is clearly one of the favorites, with Mike
Trout heading an excellent keeper set and all three projections pegging him as
a top two team. Having an excellent offense across the board will do that for
you. That isn’t to say his team is without its warts, though, as he has
projected weaknesses in saves, ERA, and WHIP. Projections, however, are quite
down on most of his pitchers, including McHugh, Hughes, and Shoemaker.
Best Pick
Luke Gregerson (RP, $7) Yes, the Astros bullpen is a
gigantic mess, but Gregerson is clearly the best pitcher of the bunch. I’ve
built a model to predict K and BB rates based on pitcher’s plate discipline
numbers, and Gregerson’s 2014 numbers yielded an expected K/9 of 10.62, rather
than the pedestrian 7.34 K/9 he actually had. If Gregerson can snag the job and
my model is right about his K upside, this could be a really nice pick.
Honorable mention: Justin Masterson (SP, $1) Yes, he’s been
bombed once or twice this spring, but in 2013 Masterson was just outside the
top 10 for SP. Drew Smyly (SP, $10) Somehow, he snuck in during a lull in the
draft fairly early on, and is a great value, despite the shoulder question
marks. John Jaso (C, $1) One concussion away from maybe retiring, but he’s a C
who really plays 1B now.
Worst Pick
Matt Shoemaker (SP, $18) I think we all saw this one coming.
I knew Andrew was quite high on Shoemaker and there really weren’t many good options
left out there, so I ended up bidding him way up on Shoemaker. There’s a lot to
like about Shoemaker as a pitcher – great K and walk rates last year, albeit
the walks are going to bounce back up a good bit, it’s just that at $18 there
isn’t a ton of value here. Andrew may have been better off snagging a closer
and some lower cost, upside arms like Hutchison, Eovaldi, Heaney, or Hahn.
Honorable mention: Michael Saunders (OF, $10) Every year
Andrew pegs Saunders as a sleeper. I suppose one of these years he might be
right, but $10 for an injured, injury prone guy in a potential playing time
battle with Viciedo isn’t exactly a good value.
Things are looking up if…
The projections are wrong about Shoemaker (4.02 ERA), Hughes
(4.07), and to a lesser extent, McHugh (3.74). Gregerson snags the Astros
closer job.
It all goes to shit if…
Hughes, Shoemaker, and McHugh are all one year wonders,
rather than legitimate breakouts. McGee never get his closer gig back under new
manager Kevin Cash. Saunders and Rasmus disappoint, leaving two giant holes in
the outfield.
Luke
ESPN is not kind to Luke in 1AT (After Trout). Their
projections have his pitching and offense both second to last, with a major
weakness in strikeouts most notably, despite having a lot of projected innings. Stolen bases are a strong point, though, with a very balanced approach (5 players projected to steal 15 or more bases).
Best Pick
Alejandro De Aza (OF, $2) This is a great deal on a player
who is leaps and bounds better in fantasy than reality. Yes, De Aza had a .314
OBP last year. Yes, he was caught 10 times on the base paths. No, the Orioles
don’t seem to give a damn about any of that. Fifteen homers and ten steals out
of a $2 player is a good deal, and on a solid offense like the Orioles, he’ll
probably chip in pretty good R and RBI numbers.
Honorable mention: Adam LaRoche (1B, $17) Power is scarce,
and LaRoche should be a solid starter.
Worst Pick
Jered Weaver (SP, $11) The price isn’t too terrible, as
Weaver is a guy who will help you in ERA and WHIP, but the strikeouts haven’t
been there for years. With Jose Quintana leading his staff, Luke really could
have used a higher K pitcher in that same range, such as Smyly or McHugh.
Honorable mention: Chris Tillman (SP, $5) Lots more innings,
not that many Ks.
Things are looking up if…
Quintana beats his projections handily and matches his 8.00
K/9, rather than his projected 7.24, Kazmir pitches like first half Kazmir striking
out a batter per nine.
It all goes to shit if…
Luke Porcello, Tillman, Quintana, and Weaver all pile up a
ton of innings while not helping in strikeouts at all. Chris Davis shows that
2013 was the aberrant year, not 2014.
Bill
I came into the draft with a pretty good set of keepers, but
Stroman’s injury and subsequent dropping left me with only four keepers and
needing to fill out a whole rotation in the draft. I targeted Chris Sale ($35)
and Cobb ($25) as the two best pitchers in the draft; unfortunately, they’ll
both start the season on the DL. Average and stolen bases are quite weak,
having missed out on any major basestealers, and strikeouts and wins are weak
thanks to low innings pitched totals from starting 4 relievers. Those four
relievers should pile up the saves, though.
Best Pick
Brad Boxberger (RP, $7) Boxberger’s numbers (14.47 K/9, 2.37
ERA) were stupid good last year, and when you factor in that he was actually
rather unlucky on home runs (18.8% HR/FB, when the average is ~10% and most
pitchers don’t seem to have any control over the stat) he could be poised to
take the TB closer job and run with it. We don’t know new TB manager Kevin Cash’s
tendencies yet, but: 1) he might prefer to leave left hander Jake McGee in a
fireman role, 2) he might not be afraid to reshuffle the pen, since as a new
manager he might not have loyalty to McGee in the closer role. Even if he doesn’t
keep the closer job, a month of saves, a ton of strikeouts, and elite ratios
ought to be worth the $7 price tag.
Honorable mention: Drew Hutchison (SP, $4) Hutchison had a
very strong second half and piles up the strikeouts; Danny Farquhar (RP, $3)
Although Rodney held the Seattle job last year, he was uninspiring throughout the
year (1.34 WHIP), despite a shiny ERA; Rodney is a FA next year, so if he
struggles, the M’s won’t hesitate to pull the plug. TJ House (SP $3) Guaranteed
a spot in the rotation with Floyd out, TJ House was also sneaky good last year.
I guess I like a lot of my picks. I suppose that makes
sense; I would imagine you guys like your picks more than I do.
Worst Pick
Huston Street (RP, $15) Street at $15 is right where I had
him coming into the draft, and despite a fastball that sits around 90 MPH, he
generates plenty of swinging strikes (so my model is high on him) and
strikeouts. With Britton and Allen already drafted, and lots more interesting
arms that I ended up drafting later, such as Boxberger and Farquhar, the money
probably would have been better spent upgrading infield or outfield.
Honorable mention: Billy Butler (1B, $10) Betting on a Billy
Butler bounceback isn’t a terrible proposition, but with Hosmer already in the
fold, the money could have been better spent on someone with a different skillset.
Things are looking up if…
Sale and Cobb come back quickly and dominate, while cobbling
together enough innings in the meantime to not fall too far behind in counting
stats. Hutchison, House, and Miley all are viable starters. I can find steals
via trade or the waiver wire. Brad Miller is a solid starter, allowing me to
slide Hanley Ramirez into the outfield.
It all goes to shit if…
Cobb’s tendonitis is a precursor to a much more serious injury,
like Tommy John surgery. Rusney Castillo stays in the minors while Mookie lights
it up and Shane Victorino somehow stays both healthy and effective, crippling
my chances in stolen bases while dinging an already poor batting average.
11 comments:
Thanks for doing all this, Bill. I find myself in agreement with you in most places, though I will take a minute to defend myself with the Shoemaker pick. I had him head and shoulders above the starters that were left and the only relievers of note that went after Shoemaker (that I didn't draft, since I did snag Clippard) were Boxberger and Cecil. I had already missed on closers like Street and Britton, and needed to spend the money somewhere. I think overall, my draft was a solid B, which is hopefully all I needed with Mike Trout.
Thanks for doing this thorough analysis. Love the new format.
I don't think the Shoemaker pick was a truly terrible one, given the circumstances. It was a pretty big overpay in terms of value coming into the draft. While you can justify just about any pick given the context, but to evaluate the draft as a whole, I think you just have to look at value. In some ways, I Think that no closers were left to draft makes the decision to draft him a bit better, but it did price you out of Boxberger (giving you the TB situation outright) or Cecil.
Ugh, Weaver is throwing about 83 MPH so far this spring, apparently. I don't mind the $11 price, but he's just a guy I'd be happy not to own at all this year. He's been in decline for a while and I wouldn't be surprised to see him finally just fall apart this year.
I actually think my worst pick was Zobrist, though. He was the last good 2B at the time and I got in a bidding war with Andrew. I actually expected and was hoping for Andrew to bid $19, at which point I would've stopped. Zobrist for $18 looks terrible next to Kipnis for $18 and Pedroia and Kinsler for $19.
I think Zobrist looks bad compared to Kinsler at $19, but I don't think he's a terrible pick compared to Pedroia or Kipnis. Both Kipnis and Pedroia carry a ton of risk, that offsets the much lower ceiling of Zobrist. Plus, his versatility (2B, SS, OF) is a huge plus in terms of plugging holes at other positions (e.g. injury or ineffectiveness from Hardy/Escobar).
But it is always grim bidding on the last guy in a tier.
Yeah, I think one thing to always remember with these auction writeups is that it is easy to analyze individual picks, but harder to analyze overall auction trends. Money not spent is very, very bad, so an overpay in absolute terms is better than leaving money on the table.
It would be interesting, but also quite a bit of work, to try to address this.
Yeah, I led us that year in that category, leaving $5 on the table. Frustrating to see afterwards that I could've turned Weaver into Gray or Sanchez.
Bill, as always, very well done.
Definitely agree with you on Perez and shows my lack of paying enough attention to the off season story lines. In hindsight, it obvious that 150 games is unsustainable at catcher and I honestly don't recall my logic there.
I don't get the backlash at spending $3 vs $1 on Yu Darvish. I mean, it's $2. Not going to make a difference at that point in the auction. What might make a difference either through trade or as a keeper next year is Yu Darvish, who I could have missed out on had I bet only $1. Even if he only gets 150 innings next year, a 2 year contract for a top-tier starter at $8 is worth it I think.
I think Darvish was a great pick at either $1 or $3. No risk really. I made a killing dump-trading an injured $1 V-Mart a couple years ago, and he then went on to be a pretty good keeper (for Kate, I think?).
The backlash is just that you could've nominated him for $1 and maybe saved yourself $2. I probably would've bid $2, to be honest, so I doubt anything would've changed. Not that it's a huge difference either way, but I just can't come up with a good reason to start at $3 instead of $1.
I might be too high on Pedroia. I just think the Red Sox offense will be insanely good this year.
I particularly hated the Darvish pick because it hamstrung you for the rest of the draft, leaving you with only $1 players. Yes, it is only a $2 difference, but in terms of draft options and assembling the back end of your roster, you were really stuck. If you had $5 of discretionary money left when you spent $3 on Darvish, I'm more ok with it. Also, for a pitcher TJ surgery is riskier and has a longer recovery than an ACL. It wouldn't surprise me if Darvish isn't back until June of next year (much like AJ Griffin and Jarrod Parker this year). Speaking of ACLs, I'm shocked that no one thought to draft Stroman (really wish I'd thought of that).
Post a Comment