Reduce. Reuse. Recycle.
Best Pick: Chris Perez at $4. Sure closers are volatile, but when you spend $4 on someone who has the Indians job locked down for a couple months, you have to be happy about it. I do think that Kerry Wood will get the job back at some point, if only to increase his value, but when other closers are going in the $14-$19 range, Perez is a steal at $4.
Worst Pick: Brian Roberts at $24. With Zobrist at $20 and Hill at $17, it is hard to pay a top tier premium for Roberts, especially with the back problems he's had recently. If he returns to his basestealing ways Mark could break even on the pick, but stolen base totals have declined 3 consecutive years for Roberts.
Decide. Commit. Succeed.
Best Pick: Marco Scutaro, $3. Spencer nabbed a top half shortstop for peanuts at the end of the draft. Even if Scutaro doesn't match his 2009 production he still should provide excellent value, chipping in a little bit in each of the 5 categories.
Worst Pick: Sticking with the Red Sox, Youkilis looks like an overpay at $27. There is no doubt about his production, but when his salary is the 12th highest overall, you're hard pressed to come out ahead with a guy who doesn't run.
Team T.B.D.
Best Pick: Can I mention just about all of them? Kate's team is pretty spectacular - she spent lots for the studs, but then also managed to find lots of good value. Swisher at $9 is solid, she paid the least for the top tier AL aces ($24 for Verlander), and even has some upside with Price ($10) and Porcello ($5). Porcello is one to keep an eye on here - despite his incredible stuff (mid to upper 90's fastball and a devastating sinker) Porcello struck out very few batters. If he evolves the way Verlander has, watch out.
Worst Pick: Mariano Rivera at $25. Taken towards the beginning of the draft when money was being tossed around, Rivera looks overpaid relative to guys like Soria ($18), Soriano ($17), and Bailey ($14).
Oh. No. Mr Bill.
In a straight draft you have a pretty good shot at feeling OK about all your picks. Maybe you reach a little here or there, but it is really hard to make a pick that will make or break your team. Not quite true in an auction.
Let's start with my worst pick: Grady Sizemore ($29). I don't even know if this is my worst pick, but the downside here is unavoidable. Even Kinsler, who went for the same amount, had a "down" year last year, but still went 30/30. Not so with Sizemore. I'm really putting a lot of faith in Baseball Prospectus here - their projections show a bounce back to 25/25 or so for Sizemore, and Will Carroll wrote that the surgeries Sizemore had shouldn't have any nagging effects. He's been killing the ball in spring training, but just played in back to back games last week. Needless to say, I'm very nervous.
Best Pick: Gavin Floyd ($7) and Brian Matusz ($4). I really needed both of them to fill out my pitching staff and they were both guys I targeted before the draft. Although Floyd's ERA went up between 2008 and 2009, all the underlying numbers said he was a much better pitcher in 2009. I'm hopeful for 200 IP and 170 strikeouts. Matusz has dominated every level of the minors and held his own in the AL East last summer. He's been spectacular in spring training this year (18 K: 2 BB in 14.1 IP) and one scout called Matusz the best pitcher he had seen all spring training.
Consistently Erratic
Best Pick: JJ Hardy at $6. Even though Andrew already had Maicer Izturis, the Hard pick gives him a lot of flexibility. Because of the deals on shortstops, there may not be as much of a market for Hardy himself. However, Izturis' ability to play 2B, SS, and 3B gives Andrew the option to deal other players, such as Cano, to help shore up a pretty weak outfield.
Worst Pick: Robinson Cano at $26. Cano isn't terrible at $26, but when Andrew had already drafted Pedroia, it was a pretty big misallocation of resources. If Andrew can get fair value on Cano with a power/speed outfielder, he may be a lot better off.
Smell the Glove
Best Pick: Although Taylor was cash rich for the second half of the auction, he was still pretty quiet. He still managed to put together the back end of his pitching staff on the cheap (Masterson $4, Lewis $2). Other nice values include 40 steals from Rajai Davis for $12 and the potential to hit the jackpot with Quentin ($12), if he can ever stay healthy.
Worst Pick: If I'm calling out Mariano at $25, I have to call out Papelbon at $23. Joe Mauer at $32 seems awfully high, but if Mauer can put up 28 home runs again, I don't think Taylor will mind.
Moscow Trololos
Best Pick: Scott Downs ($3). Downs hasn't allowed an earned run yet this spring. Although the Jays haven't announced who their closer is, Downs has easily out pitched Frasor, Gregg, and Accardo, who all sport gaudy ERAs.
Worst Pick: Jorge Posada ($10). Either Luke plays V-Mart at 1B, where he isn't nearly as valuable, or he can use Posada in his utility spot. Much like Andrew's Cano pick, this isn't a terrible value, just not a very good use of resources.
Team Murphy
Caleb did a really nice job picking a young team (the only regulars over 30 are Ortiz and Drew), although as he pointed out in the draft, he had to pay for it.
Best Pick: Matt Laporta ($3). With Branyan hurt and Brantley likely headed to AAA, Laporta should definitely get playing time. The average might not be that impressive, but 25 home runs will be a nice return for $3.
Worst Pick: Gordon Beckham ($25). Although it pains me to select a former Bulldog, Beckham at $25 seems awfully high. If he can hit 25 HR at 2B he might match that value, but Caleb is already paying full freight on established 25 HR, .300 hitters such as Cano, and a full $8 more than Aaron Hill, who put up 36 last year. I like the player, just not the price.
8 comments:
This was an extremely interesting draft. For me, the studs early were going for far too much, and I was actually content and satisfied to wait untill the middle and end of the draft to take the majority of my players. Actually at about player 20, when I ended up taking Ichiro, I thought for sure I was going to be able to clean up in value for the rest of the draft. I still think I could have, if I hadn't spent so darn much in the middle. I got a ton of players in the high and mid teens, and by the time the end of the draft rolled around, I was at the bottom in terms of cash left instead of the top. That's my biggest regret, because the biggest deals were on high upside pitching like Bill got with Gavin Floyd and Matsusz.
Agree with a lot of what Bill said here. I disagree slightly on Youkilis - it might be a slight overpay, but 3B is very thin this year, and he's darn reliable (now why I drafted Michael Young after already having Youk...that, I don't know).
Kate's team will be pretty interesting. I think her pitching is pretty good and she's got some studs on offense, but she's got some holes too (OF, UTIL, SS).
But after poring over these players for the last two weeks prepping, I can't really tell the difference between these lineups. Certainly no clear favorites like we had last year, that's for sure.
I'll agree with that last part Spencer - there is no clear favorite and it is hard to make heads or tails of the rosters.
You are right though - if you're going to over pay it should be a weak position and fill a need - Youk did both of those for you.
Thanks Bill. This is like reading a fantasy article about yourself....which...is awesome.
I also agree with a lot of what Bill wrote, although I want to argue a bit on Beckham as my worst pick. I did overpay for him, but his value is probably right around $20. I probably could have got him for less than that if he'd come up later in the draft, but not much. He will have 2b/3b eligibility, and as Spencer said earlier, 3b is shallow this year. I tend to lean closer to ESPN's projections than PECOTA's, in Beckham's case. Comparing him to the other $25 players out there...yes, I guess I did overpay a bit.
And I think you meant Kinsler, not Cano, in my write-up.
If I were to pick my worst pick, I'd probably have to go with the fact that I only drafted one closer, and it was Bobby Jenks. That was probably my biggest mistake, though I do think I can plumb the depths of the waiver wire pretty well for saves.
Nobody thinks there worst pick was that bad. I'd argue that you're paying nearly as much as Youkilis for nowhere close to the certainty of production. As far as closers go, it is hard to argue that the worst pick someone made is one that didn't actually happen. Jenks for $9 or so is not a bad value at all. And although Cano isn't an established 25 home run hitter, after his showing last year and the new park, I'd have him pegged at 25 or so for this year as well.
No I agree on Cano, I like him for 25 HR this year and was bidding on him right up the end. You said I was already paying full freight for Cano, although now that I read it again I think I get what you meant.
Ah, yes. Full freight for a Cano type player, when Beckham hasn't really shown that yet.
Roberts at $24 was a bit of a reach. Considering how much was paid for Cano and Pedrioa (I had them all valued the same) I didn't feel bad about it at the time. I feel a little worse now. Zobrist and Hill are both coming off out of nowhere career years so it will be interesting how they do this season.
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