Not much changes with the recent trade between Bill and Luke. Bill loses some steals, but makes it up in RBI. Luke gains a point in the RBI column.Oh, have the tables turned...
Marcel uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor. The projections are conservative generally. For example, the AL league leader in HRs is Carlos Pena (32) followed by A-Rod (31).
For the rookies without a Marcel projection, I used the Chone projection (found on Fangraphs).
I eyeballed the lineups and adjusted to maximize playing time and production. Might be some oversight there.
13 comments:
Oh god, I did it again.
I always think I can squeeze water out of a stone when it comes to pitching.
Yikes.
Considering I have no catcher and am currently playing Wigginton, I'm OK with my position in the standings.
My position at third to last seems to be quite consistent!
Wow, 1st in Wins and Ks and last in ERA and WHIP. I'm really not surprised.
But also if you did the projection to maximize playing time that will skew things for me, as I probably won't play Saunders unless I have to.
Better rerun those projections! I actually have a catcher now!
Oh, nvm. Disregard what I just said after looking at the actual Google doc here.
Huh, that's surprising. According to my projections, having a catcher bumped me up from 39 to 46.
In my projections you did have a catcher - Luis Valbuena. You did upgrade a little from Valbuena and Hunter to Posada and Gutierrez, but not 7 points worth.
Well, Valbuena is a middle infielder. So I was actually upgrading from Adam Moore to Posada, so the difference was a bit more substantial. Marcel seems awfully past PT driven - Jones, Borbon, and a few others ought to beat their PT projections with ease.
I agree with that. Marcel really isn't a prediction system - it is just a projection of your team based on past performance. I think it is a good way to compare teams at the beginning of the season, but there are certainly going to be players - especially the young ones - that push well past the projection.
I agree. It would be a lot more work, but if I were to put much faith in it I'd prorate the stats. For example, LaPorta is slated for 10 HR, but in only 299 PA, so prorating that for 700 PA (completely full time) that puts him at 24. It would be a pain to look at depth charts and estimate PT for everyone, but would be a lot more accurate. I think teams with a lot of young players get penalized a lot with the Marcel projections; this is probably one of the reasons Taylor is sitting atop the league right now.
This shit needs to start already.
One. More. Day.
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