Let's start with the unadjusted playoff probability (remember, this is based only on runs scored and runs allowed)
| Team | %Div | %WC |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 12.64 | 35.36 |
| Yankees | 77.35 | 15.63 |
| Rays | 9.98 | 32.44 |
| Rangers | 22.50 | 9.24 |
| Angels | 77.43 | 4.92 |
Based on RS/RA, the Red Sox look good. Also, even though the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees have beaten up on each other this season, their run differential is much better than the teams in the AL West, who only have about a 15% chance of taking the Wildcard. This projection has a couple of flaws in it, however. First of all, the Red Sox have improved their offense with the addition of V-Mart, who will help keep Lowell, Youkilis, and Tek fresh. I think overall, in my completely unscientific view, the Sox offense should improve a good bit, even if the team is currently mired in a terrible slump.
I think the bigger problem will be pitching. The Sox bullpen was down right unhittable early in the year, and that just wasn't sustainable, especially now that they are being asked to pitch more and more innings. On top of that, this isn't the same pitching rotation that did well early in the year.
All in all, I think this projection is pretty good, though perhaps on the low side. Using this projection, the Sox finish at 91 and 61, meaning they go 29-24 over the rest of the season. This seems lok, considering they have 30 home games left, and 26 road games, with the team playing much, much better at home.
6 comments:
Blogger does not like my tables, so please forgive the giant white space. My html is terrible, and I can't really figure it out.
andrew are you artificially increasing your comment count?!
Regardless of the result tonight, they need to forget about this series and start winning again. The bats will come around, to me it's all about what we can get from Buchholz, Penny, and...Tazawa? Dice-K? Wakefield? 3 rotation spots right now are pretty big question marks. If they continue to wear down the bullpen with no obvious long-man with Masterson done, we'll be in pretty big trouble.
The other element is of course the psychological one - we all remember in 2006 after the Boston Massacre when the entire team basically gave up - hopefully that doesn't happen this time, but if they lose tonight and lose a few more in a row, who knows.
Well, that was worse than expected. The extra-special gut punch of having V-Mart hit the HR only to be followed by that nonsense. Better get back into shape with the Tigers and get ready for next weekend's series with Texas - that just became pretty important.
Baseball Prospectus has the Sox POFF chances at 40.6%. But is now behind the Rays, but ahead of the White Sox and the Rangers:
Baseball Prospectus
Rays: 50.29%
Red Sox: 40.60%
White Sox: 34.37%
Rangers: 25.92%
What's shocking is the BP's 7 day change for the Sox - at a heart attack inducing -22.57% drop in a mere single week.
The previous comments were Caleb helping me fix my html. My html was actually OK, it just wasn't playing nice with Blogger. (Amazing!) As far as parts 2 and 3, I'm not really sure I am going to bother with a detailed analysis of the other two projection systems. Basically, the Sox need pitching, and they need to stop sucking so much donkey cock at the plate. It's really hard to win with rookie starting pitchers (Bowden and Tazawa, if they go that route) when the offense doesn't help.
The offense just has to turn it around. With Lester and Beckett we should never go through a 6 game losing streak. If we can't figure out how to beat the Rays, this season is over.
Post a Comment