So can we decide on what we're going to do for keepers next season? The number of keepers, inflation, and keeper time limits are big factors for me in some trade discussions.
I've summarized the discussion from the earlier comments as best I can remember it, but if something is missing let me know.
1. 4 keepers? 5 keepers?
I think 5 is a reasonable number, Andrew and I have been winning because of contributions from the draft.
2. 10% inflation (current), 50% inflation? Always round up? Down? Round to nearest integer?
I think somewhere between 10 and 50% would be reasonable. A few examples, using a 20th round draft pick, rounding up:
10% 15 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
20% 10 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 16, 12, 9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
30% 7 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 14, 9, 6, 4, 2, 1
40% 5 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 12, 7, 4, 2, 1
50% 4 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 10, 5, 2, 1
Obviously a 10% inflation uncapped isn't a very good idea. Andrew shouldn't be able to keep Longoria in 2017 for a 7th round pick.
With the higher percentages rounding makes a large difference in time until a 1st round pick:
30% rounding up, 7 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 14, 9, 6, 4, 2, 1
30% rounding down, 9 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 14, 10, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
I think 50% rounding down seems reasonable - I think this was what Mark suggested. The very cheap players get expensive quickly, but if you end up with an elite player in later rounds you can hang on to them for awhile. That said, they're not preposterous bargains.
50% rounding down, 6 years until a 1st round pick: 20, 10, 5, 3, 2, 1
3. Stick with the year drafted plus 3 years as a keeper? Unlimited keeper time limits (proposed in conjuction with agressive player inflation)
4. Cost for undrafted players?
If we want to slightly increase the cost of undrafted players, I'd suggest having them be a 20th round pick but have them cost earlier rounds after that. I picked the 20th round because that is the last round you'd use to fill your starting lineup. I'd be fine with an earlier pick too - right now I think that cheap free agent players have the greatest potential to be unbalancing.
5. Number of 1st round keepers that can be kept?
Currently it is two, but Mark mentioned that we might remove that rule with aggressive inflation. I'd actually be OK with keeping this rule.
9 comments:
1. 5 Keepers
2. 50% inflation
3. I'm ok with unlimited keeper terms if we use the 50% inflation.
4. 20th round ceiling for any keepers (including players drafted in round 21-25)
5. Max of 2 first round keepers is still good I think.
Also, for players kept in the same round, maybe we always force them going a round earlier, opposed to later (except in the case of the first round where it would be rounds 1 and 2). This would help a to balance the added value of keeping a bunch of 20th round players.
Pretty much with Mark on this one.
1. 5 keepers
2. 50% inflation, although we need to decide whether we're rounding up or down. And does inflation get applied the first time a player gets kept or the second.
3. Unlimited time for keepers
4. 20th round min for all players
5. Max of 2 still sounds good to me as well.
My votes:
1. 4 Keepers
2. 50% inflation. Don't really care which way we round. I think inflation should get applied the second time somebody's kept. So if you draft someone in 18th round, next year you get them in the 18th, then the 9th, etc.
3. Unlimited
4. 20th round ceiling sounds fine. If you have multiple players in the same round, you sandwich them around that round. For example, two 20th rounders would go in the 19th and 20th, but three 20th rounders would go in the 19th, 20th, and 21st.
5. Max of 2 first round keepers
1. 5 Keepers
2. 50% inflation, and I like Taylor's idea of sandwiching, though I haven't given too much thought to the matter
3. Unlimited keeper time
4. 20th round minimum is fine (and relatively minor)
5. Max of 2 first round keepers seems reasonable. Have we given any thought to what we want to do (if anyhting) to continue to level the playing field for expansion teams? Should we consider a supplemental expansion draft of unkept players(maybe only one round?)? Should I just make this its own posting?
This is all well and good but also totally unfair, given that I just traded away my whole team based on the idea of having value keepers. If we move to 50% inflation, that basically totally screws me. If anything we need to implement the year after next and not next year.
Spencer makes a good point. I think if we do change keeper rules, we'll have to put it off for a season.
Agreed.
If we don't move to change the keeper rules until next season, would we still keep the keeper limits? So, any players that people keep this year that have already been kept twice would go back into the 2011 draft?
Also, for the former prospect picks, should we still count that they have been kept? This would only apply to Longoria, Weiters, Price, and Snider. (Longoria has only been kept as a keeper once but have been "kept" twice - once as a keeper and once as a prospect pick. The rest have never been kept as a keeper).
1. 5 keepers.
2. I'm okay with 50% inflation if it doesn't start until the 2nd time a player is kept. As far as rounding goes, I say we round up. Otherwise, a 3rd round pick becomes a 1st round pick immediately, and that seems odd to me.
3. Unlimited.
4. I don't like a round cap. Remember, everything that has the potential to be "unbalancing" automatically also has the potential to be REbalancing. I'd much prefer to see the weaker teams EARN their way back, and one possible way they could do this is to make really good free agent pickups. Right now, that's pretty difficult because our waiver wire is so terrible, but I think everybody knows how I feel about that. I think I've been arguing for smaller benches and rosters for 2 years now, and we made some changes before this season, but not as many as I was suggesting. Anyway, that's a different topic, but it is one I'd like to deal with at some point.
5. I don't like the idea of a limit on the number of 1st rounders. I think it's very difficult to get a large number of 1st round draft picks on your team. If you have more than 2 who are worth keeping, it's either because you've traded away some serious value, or you've repeatedly made very good draft picks which have inflated into 1st rounders. I think such a manager ought to be rewarded for that. This is basically my problem with all the schemes that we've come up to increase equity at the beginning of the season; they all involve punishing someone for making a good decision. The 50% round inflation I'm more okay with, because it punishes everyone equally and only serves to decrease the inequity caused by one team's superior foresight (or luck), rather than just arbitrarily taking away the values one team has earned and giving them to someone else. Yes, I do want very much for every team to have a shot at winning at the beginning of every season, and if that wasn't the case then I think it would mean that our league is messed up. With just 5 keepers, however, I really don't think there is anything to worry about.
I think the concerns about the expansion teams not getting a big enough boost this year are legitimate, and I will support a measure to try and make up for this next year provided it is not too big. It would be bad if we overcompensated and then gave Taylor and Kate the unfair advantage.
Oh, and I don't think we should change any keeper rules until NEXT year, because of what Spencer already said.
Again, the biggest thing we can do to make it easier for the weaker teams to come back is to shrink the rosters and put more talent on the waiver wire.
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