To calculate HRs, I used the average of the PECOTA and Chone projection systems. As a league total, PECOTA predicts 1,525 HRs and Chone 1,618. Caleb's team had the largest difference in the projection systems, with Chone predicting 188 and PECOTA 151 (+37). Players with a large difference between Chone and PECOTA were Weiters (-16), Posada (+9), Ortiz (+9), A-Rod (+9), and Snider (-9).
HRs
| Bill | 228.0 |
| Mark | 222.0 |
| Taylor | 207.5 |
| Andrew | 198.0 |
| Luke | 192.0 |
| Kate | 181.5 |
| Spencer | 173.0 |
| Caleb | 169.5 |
edit: I realized that I did not give Bill a 3b in my original projections... Now with Wood (20 HRs), he is the projected HR winner.
Certainly have to give Taylor props for ending up with the third best HR projection. Even though all of the big sluggers were kept, 10 of his 12 position starters are projected with double digit homeruns and 6 of the 12 projected at 19+.
5 comments:
sweet. just what i wanted to see.
ESPN Projections:
HR
Bill 276
Mark 250
Taylor 246
Luke 233
Andrew 214
Kate 213
Caleb 196
Spencer 181
Sorry Spencer, looks like ESPN hates your team (they also reduced A-Rod's numbers based on him missing a month, which PECOTA and Chone haven't)
I do think Bill has the advantage in this category, but I think the 276 HRs is a bit over the top. 229 won the HR category last year. Sadly, Spencer's team get's no love in any of the projection systems.
guess that's what 3 MI's that combine for less than 10 HR's will do for you...
I think the key with the ESPN projections is to look at the stats relative to one another. I agree with Mark that the numbers themselves don't really make much sense, but it is all relative. I can't wait to see the ERAs, I bet they'll be lower too!
There is no way that the winning team this year hits 50 home runs MORE than the winning team last year, after adding two teams.
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