The difference in wins production may not be as big as you think. I divided AL pitchers with at least 5 games started in 2008 into two categories: Pitchers with a VORP 15 and over (n=43) and pitchers with a VORP of -5 to 14.9. The later group was my best estimate of the type of pitcher you could find in the free agent pool on any given day (e.g. Glen Perkins, Jarrod Washburn, Dave Purcey).
In the 15+ group, pitchers earned wins at a clip of 7.1 wins per 100 innings pitched. In the -5 to 14.9 group, pitchers earned wins at a rate of 6.0 wins per 100 innings pitched. Using these "waiver wire" pitchers for 300 innings would return approximately 18 additional wins, much higher than my original estimate of 10-12.
However, while these pitchers can out with wins, they will most likely kill your ERA and WHIP:
| VORP 15+ | VORP -5 to 15 | |
| WHIP | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| ERA | 3.71 | 4.97 |
So, the wins are out there, but at what cost?
2 comments:
Of all the stats, wins are probably the hardest to predict. Just look at Daisuke throwing 160 innings and ending up with 18 wins last year. Or Gavin Floyd's 18. Sometimes, guys just get lucky, and if you have them on your team, you're golden.
Also, not all those guys that had a -5 VORP last year are going to be shitty this year. Every season a couple of players take a step forward, and I think whoever can grab those guys and use them to sponge up innings (and get wins) will be much better off than the teams that are grabbing Washburn.
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