Spencer picks up another potentially high end starter, although Verlander has an awful lot of questions associated with him. Initially I wasn't quite sure what to make of this deal. Based on names alone, it seems like Spencer comes out ahead, but Verlander has been absolutely horrible so far this year.
For Caleb, the deal addresses his weakness in the outfield, without giving up any players that he was currently starting every week. Damon should be good for a 10 to 15 homerun season with 20 bags, which is looking like it will be a competitive category, especially with Spencer giving up Damon. He'll contribute with runs, but he won't contribute much to RBI totals or address the problems with average. Eveland is a solid, albeit unspectacular starter, pretty much the exact opposite of Verlander. Although he won't offer lofty strikeout totals, he and Greg Smith provide solid fall back options if injuries or ineffectiveness pop up with his pitching staff. I'm not sure Blalock is worth much in this deal. With such a small sample size before he got injured (again), it is hard to say whether or not he had turned a corner, or was just having a hot streak.
For Spencer, this is another attempt to roll the dice on pitching. As I commented before, the only way Spencer is competitive this year is if his pitching staff manages to turn it around. Verlander showed last year that he has the ability to dominate, and the team keeps saying there isn't anything physically wrong with him. I did hear Keith Law say that Verlander seems to be tiring very early in games, as early as the 3rd inning, and that perhaps the IP on a young arm are starting to catch up with him, just like they did for Bonderman. Also, it isn't as if Verlander has been unlucky this year. His strikeouts are way down (5.0/9) and his walks are way up (3.7/9), leading to a QERA of 5.40, not particularly different than his current ERA of 6. However, even if Verlander doesn't turn it around, Spencer ends up with a potentially valuable keeper in Saltamacchia.
Overall, I think I like this deal better for Spencer than for Caleb. He gets the high risk / high reward gamble relatively cheaply (Damon can easily be replaced in his line-up), and I'm just not sure that Caleb is significantly better off after this trade. He could have held onto Jose Guillen and waited on a Verlander turn around. Thanks to some good work on the waiver wire he had the pitching depth to wait it out. Although the stolen bases will definitely help, but I think the price was too high for a marginal upgrade.
4 comments:
I'm still pissed about Guillen. I dropped him the day before he started hitting. He was batting .165 at the time. He starts hitting the next day, so I decide to wait and see if it keeps up for a day or two and you grab him. Major bummer.
I agree with Bill here. Except that I think Spencer is taking on a great risk. Spencer needs Verlander to turn things around now as he will have to throw him right into the mix. If Spencer could stash him on the bench for a couple of starts, I'd feel better about it. Another month of bad starts from Verlander could spell disaster for Spencer. The trade will be put to the test right away as Verlander has two starts this week.
Well, my point was that Spencer needed to take a huge risk. With the current state of his pitching staff, I'm not sure the upgrade by adding Daisuke to his rotation was enough of an upgrade to make him competitive. Spencer's team has been performing poorly enough that he doesn't have anything to lose, at least for this year.
Early returns on the trade are not in my favor. Blalock (who I have more confidence in than Bill, but still acknowledge that his worth is questionable) had his rehab extended for a week, and Damon's average dropped to .250 over the time that the trade was being negotiated and finalized. My hopeful future catcher was sent back to AAA, and I gave up too early on Guillen. Meanwhile, Verlander had his first strong start today. If he turns his corner right now, I'll be pretty discouraged.
I agree that it was a lot to give up for Damon, Blalock, and a mediocre starter, but I didn't think Salty was going to help me any this year, and had lost all confidence in Verlander.
Time will tell.
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