Batting | Pitching | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Team | |||||||||||
| 1. | Dusty'sBaseCloggers | 5 | 5.5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 47.5 |
| 2. | Berkeley Hoboes | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3.5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 43 |
| 3. | YOOOUUUK! | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 41 |
| 4. | Don't Trade Roberts! | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| 5. | Mandrew&the VORPIES | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 6. | AAA Legacy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5.5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22.5 |
Caleb has had a great start to the season. There are no major deficiencies in his team, his lowest category is a 3 in average. Spencer on the other hand has been decimated by injuries and has fallen to the bottom of many of the counting categories.
The projections are based on everyone's roster set this week. Any players that are on the DL are not counted in these projections. Because future injuries cannot be accounted for, I chose to leave the current injured players out for balance. Also, especially in some of the weaker positions, starting rosters change weekly. This week I am using Jason Bartlett, next week it may be a different free agent. In any event, I leave it up to you to decide how these intangibles will affect the projections.
Without further ado, here are the Projected Standings:
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | SO | ERA | WHIP | TOTAL | |
| Caleb | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| Luke | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| Bill | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 39 |
| Mark | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Spencer | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 28 |
| Andrew | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
Plus/Minus from Current Standings:
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | SO | ERA | WHIP | TOTAL | |
| Caleb | -1 | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.5 |
| Luke | 0 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| Bill | -1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| Mark | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Spencer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Andrew | -1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Luke comes in strong in the pitching categories, nabbing 27 of the possible 30 points, but still not enough to beat Caleb. Caleb is projected to fall the hardest over the last 2/3 of the season, but still has enough momentum to carry the lead through to the end.
Bill also sees a sharp drop, mostly from saves. Picking up Wheeler could help if Sherrill's production comes back to earth. The biggest absolute change is from my team, projected to gain 7 points. With 25 of the possible 30 points in offensive categories, I could make a run at the lead if the bats can heat up and if Putz picks up the pace.
Also to note: As Bill pointed out in an earlier post, innings pitched should even out by the end of the season. This will help people's counting stats who are behind in innings and may or may not help the ERA and WHIP. It's hard to know how that will work as people insert more 6th starters into their rotation as the season wears on. It's pretty interesting that there is absolutely no point movement in ERA.
7 comments:
I'm surprised there aren't any changes in the ERA standings, and that the WHIP standings don't change much. One interesting thing about catching up in IP is that it makes the pitching stats more volatile. Luke's ERA is a lot more stable than Spencer's or Mark's, just because he's already thrown 75 more IP than they have. Also, to catch up in IP (and Ks and wins), plugging in a 6th starter will hurt your ERA, WHIP, and K/9 rate more than using a good middle reliever.
Of all the stats, I'd say saves is probably the least accurate projection. With closers getting injured on a regular basis, guys can fill in for short periods of time and pick up a couple of saves in a week. Another thing to keep in mind is that as the season goes on there will be dump trades. Closers will probably be the easiest to come by as teams decide they can't compete this year, as they don't have good keeper value. Also, I think the projections overrate the top tier closers. The preseason projections had six closers saving 40+ games, and three saving 45+. Last year Borowski saved 45, and three others saved 40. In 2006 it was more of the same, with only two AL relievers cracked 40 saves. So, I think the difference between a Mariano Rivera (predicted to have 31 saves from here on out) and a George Sherill (predicted to have 16 saves from here on out) will be anywhere close to 15 saves.
Also, I don't think the projected standings do a good job assessing players that have taken big steps forward or big steps back. To use some extreme examples, Carlos Quentin has already hit for more HR (14) than he was projected to hit in the entire season (11). Cliff Lee is projected to kill Caleb's ERA for the rest of the year by pitching the rest of the year with an ERA just under 5. Ervin Santana is supposedly going ot hurt Luke's ERA for the rest of the year as well.
Travis Hafner is projected to hit another 19 homeruns, and Nick Swisher is supposed to hit another 21. I think both Spencer and I would be ecstatic if they approached those numbers.
Although I realize that the projections are a quick and dirty way to see how the season will play out, it is important to realize they do a very poor job of assessing the impact of "breakout" and "breakdown" players. In fact, an owner who does a good job on the waiver wire is effectively penalized in these standings for finding diamonds in the rough.
hey i'm not last! Thanks Andrew!
I agree with that assessment. The projections assume a sharp regression for any player having a breakout year. To use Bill's example with Quentin, he has 7.37 HRs "left" in his projections (11*.67), which effectively gives him 21-22 homeruns when all is said and done. I wouldn't be shocked if this was his final total, but it will probably be closer to 30.
Here is ERA and WHIP now and projected.
Current Stats
Points
ERA WHIP ERA WHIP
Spencer 4.48 1.34 1 3
Mark 4.11 1.38 2 1
Bill 3.74 1.36 4 2
Andrew 3.75 1.27 3 4
Caleb 3.66 1.24 5 5
Luke 3.20 1.10 6 6
Projected Remaining + Current
Points
ERA WHIP ERA WHIP
Spencer 4.22 1.32 1 4
Mark 4.17 1.38 2 1
Bill 3.99 1.34 4 2
Andrew 4.07 1.34 3 3
Caleb 3.94 1.30 5 5
Luke 3.68 1.24 6 6
*WHY CAN'T THE COMMENTS HANDLE MULTIPLE SPACES!!!**
Blogger is absolutely atrocious with tables. I've had the best luck simply saving them as a jpg and adding them in as a picture.
Looking at those ERAs, I'm surprised by how much they're predicted to go up. Granted, ERA and WHIP are higher this year than this point of the season last year, but lower than the final totals last year, but looking at those ERAs serves as another reminder that BP's projections regress heavily to the mean.
Actually, Cliff Lee may very well kill my ERA for the rest of year, if I continue to start him after tonight.
Post a Comment