Nate Silver: Sorry, but from my points of view Morneau is a pretty ordinary ballplayer. Over his last three season, he had one very good year, one year in which he was about league average for his position, and another year in which he stunk. He has a low Beta and is a player whom is fairly easy to project. I like the guy -- and it's funny that Kent Hrbek is his #1 PECOTA comparable -- but I think he's a superstar in name only."
Hitting 31 Hr, 111 RBI, and .270 BA is average for your position? Ummm... Maybe if everyone at your position is named David Ortiz. The year in which he "stunk" was when he was 23 years old for christ sake .
I'm not saying Morneau is all that special (i didn't keep him), but i felt he was the best player with the most potential for a good year in a position that I like to get a lot of the offensive counting stats from. Plus, he's been good for 600 AB the last two seasons (something you can't say about Manny or Hafner).
Calling him a superstar is debatable (I'll wait for one more solid season), but he's not all that bad. Silver's comments are off base.
Mark - the difference of opinion has to do with the fact that you're looking at the counting stats and Silver is looking at the EQAs. Morneau is a pretty good 1B, but without Mauer's .429 (!!) OBP in 2006, Morneau doesn't come anywhere close to winning the MVP. Or you could credit the flukey increase in his line drive percentage (23.5%, when his major and minor league numbers point to 16-17% being typical) inflating his average up to .330.
That is a good point. I suppose Nate isn't really commenting on his fantasy value. I think winning the MVP actually hurt Morneau's reputation in the eyes of the BP guys. They love to rail on the MVP results and the guys that win it become perennial targets of their criticisims. If Morneau came in 2nd or 3rd in the voting (which is a stupid and entirely unscientific process anyway), he probably would have avoided much of these hits.
9 comments:
"No matter how many times you get burnt, you keep doing the same" - Bodie
"All in the game yo, all in the game" -Omar
Shit. I already miss the Wire.
Too bad Bill & Andrew can't participate in this conversation because they don't watch great television ;)
It is on my Netflix queue, but they never have it available.
Nate Silver: Sorry, but from my points of view Morneau is a pretty ordinary ballplayer. Over his last three season, he had one very good year, one year in which he was about league average for his position, and another year in which he stunk. He has a low Beta and is a player whom is fairly easy to project. I like the guy -- and it's funny that Kent Hrbek is his #1 PECOTA comparable -- but I think he's a superstar in name only."
Hitting 31 Hr, 111 RBI, and .270 BA is average for your position? Ummm... Maybe if everyone at your position is named David Ortiz. The year in which he "stunk" was when he was 23 years old for christ sake .
I'm not saying Morneau is all that special (i didn't keep him), but i felt he was the best player with the most potential for a good year in a position that I like to get a lot of the offensive counting stats from. Plus, he's been good for 600 AB the last two seasons (something you can't say about Manny or Hafner).
Calling him a superstar is debatable (I'll wait for one more solid season), but he's not all that bad. Silver's comments are off base.
Mark - the difference of opinion has to do with the fact that you're looking at the counting stats and Silver is looking at the EQAs. Morneau is a pretty good 1B, but without Mauer's .429 (!!) OBP in 2006, Morneau doesn't come anywhere close to winning the MVP. Or you could credit the flukey increase in his line drive percentage (23.5%, when his major and minor league numbers point to 16-17% being typical) inflating his average up to .330.
That is a good point. I suppose Nate isn't really commenting on his fantasy value. I think winning the MVP actually hurt Morneau's reputation in the eyes of the BP guys. They love to rail on the MVP results and the guys that win it become perennial targets of their criticisims. If Morneau came in 2nd or 3rd in the voting (which is a stupid and entirely unscientific process anyway), he probably would have avoided much of these hits.
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