One thing to keep in mind about these projections is how skewed they are based on ABs and Innings Pitched. Take a look...
AB
Bill 6488
Mark 5892
Spencer 6012
Andrew 6165
Caleb 6166
Luke 6281
IP
Bill 1105
Mark 1120
Spencer 950
Andrew 1130
Caleb 1195
Luke 1105
So it's not hugely surprising that Bill ends up with significantly more hitting numbers (other than AVG, tellingly), given that he's gotten 321 more AB's then the average. Similarly, no surprise to see that I'm way behind in wins and strikeouts as I have 150 fewer innings in the projections.
Now some of this will actually happen and is based in reality, mainly that Bill's team may have more AB's because he has hitters at the top of the lineup and my young pitchers don't go deep into games. But a lot of those missed AB's and IP's from the rest of our lineups will be filled by the rest of our benches, obviously when Liriano only pitches 110 innings, I don't plan on not subbing in someone else. Ditto with BP giving Sheffield only 380 AB's.
So to really do this right, you'd want to fill most of those missing AB's with our next best replacements on the bench or in the free agent pool. The fact that it's a weekly league actually enhances the chances of missing AB's and IP's but it won't be quite as pronounced as the projections hold.
Basically the system of projections really punishes my team for being old (therefore I have fewer AB's) on the hitting side, and young on the pitching side (significantly fewer innings). Both of those are legitimate critiques of my team, but the lack of a replacement aspect to this overemphasizes both weaknesses.
Essentially, winning will be all the more satisfying this year.
2 comments:
It's true that you'll be able to make up a lot of those innings and at bats, but with who and at what cost? It's debatable whether the damage you'll do to your ERA, WHIP, and AVG is worth the bump in the other counting stats.
The projections calculate risk, and your team certainly has a inherited a ton of it. If they end up not losing that amount of playing time, you'll be in a much better position.
But enough of these projections! That's why we play the damn game!!! If we just wanted to see who could draft the best team, we could call it a day right now. Like I said, Bill has a slight edge... but a lot can happen between now and September. I think he has shot himself in the foot with Saves and Average, (two very difficult categories to come from behind in), but we'll see.
Also, those most savvy on the waiver wire is going to play a much bigger part this year than last. Lots of hidden talent out there too be had.
I suppose I could agree with at bats statement, but considering the fact you're starting 4 relievers right now I'd be willing to bet you'll finish way behind in innings pitched.
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