How Andrew can win

It isn't likely, but Andrew does still have a path to victory, in part because we're going head to head in several categories, As of Monday morning, by lead is 7.5 points, but if everything breaks just right for Andrew, I see up to 10.5 net points for him (factoring in losses from me, and gains for him).

No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.

	Bill	Andrew
R	23	-23
HR	12	NA
RBI	18	-18

I am up 23 runs on Andrew, so that should be out of reach, especially with teams starting to sit players this last week of the season. Also, Andrew is leading in HR, so he has no points to gain there, and I have a 12 HR lead on Caleb which should remain safe. Finally, RBI. Andrew is 18 RBI behind me. All season long, there has been one week where he had 19 RBI more than me - with fewer starts likely, I think that is out of reach as well.

Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing

	Bill	Andrew
AVG	0.0012	0.0024
WHIP	0.005	0.012
ERA	0.1	0.05
K	112	8
SV	8	T

I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.

Head to Head - 6 Point Swing

	Bill	Andrew
SB	1, 3	2, 3
W	T, 2	T

Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.

All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.

Well

I'm fading, and Bill's pulling away.  Glad I mortgaged the future!  Goooooo Andrew.

I think I made a huge mistake

I just traded Carlos Correa for Steven Souza. Now I see articles like this one saying that Correa is going to hit 0.260, with 7 hr and 15 sb to go with 70 r+rbi.  According to Bill, Eric Karabell just pegged him as the #6 SS in MIXED leagues.

So, wise and powerful members of Durham WHAT, did I make a huge mistake by trading Correa so quickly?

One Month In: Bold Prediction Update

We're about a month into the season now (ESPN says 11.2% of the season) and some clear trends are emerging. My pitching stinks worse than a tire fire at a waste water treatment plant. The Red Sox starters are almost as bad as mine. Taylor already has more saves than ESPN predicted for him for the entire year. Given we're a month in, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at how everyone's bold predictions are doing.

Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
 0/1, but promising.

2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.

0/2, and not looking good.

3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.

1/3, at least for now.

4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.

1/4

5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5

Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1

2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2

3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3

4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4

5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.

Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1

2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2

3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3

4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of  a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4

5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5

Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.


0/1

2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI


Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2

3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3


4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4

5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR 
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5

Fun with Early Season Numbers

All numbers are as of Sunday morning. All numbers are rounded to the nearest third of an inning or at bat.

I thought I'd play around with some of the numbers in the standings to illustrate some of the big differences we're seeing in totals this year. I don't recall other years being so extreme in so many other categories.

ERA
Right now my ERA is a rather ugly 6.018. This is actually a marked improvement from a few days ago, when it briefly crossed 7.00. Fun. Caleb, on the other hand, has a sparkling ERA of 2.824 to lead the way.

Q1: How many scoreless innings would it take to get my ERA to Caleb's?
My team has allowed 39 ER thus far this season. To have an ERA of 2.824 with those 39 runs, (Target ERA = {ER / IP}*9; IP = {ER/ERA}*9; IP = {39/2.824}*9; =124.67 total IP), I'd need a total of 124.67 IP, or 69 1/3 more innings than I have now (rounded to the nearest third of an inning). Ouch.

Q2: How many runs without recording an out would it take to get Caleb's ERA to mine?
Caleb has allowed 32 ER over 102 IP thus far. In order to raise his ERA to 6.018 (Target ERA= {ER/IP}*9; ERA*IP/9=ER; ), he'd have to allow a total of 68 runs on the season runs without recording a single out. That'd be 36 more than has allowed over his entire 102 IP thus far this season. Thirty six ER! That'd be like six starts by Wade Miley, Drew Hutchison, or T.J. House! What a disaster!

Strikeouts
Here is where it gets weird - Caleb actually has the worst K/9 in the league (6.35 K/9, trailing 2nd to last by over 1), while I have the best (11.06 K/9, leading 2nd by almost 2). Somewhere, Voros McCracken, who no doubt follows our league extremely closely, is silently weeping in a corner.

Q3: How many consecutive strikeouts would it take to get Caleb's K/9 up to mine?
The algebra here gets a little bit trickier. Caleb has 72 K in 102 IP currently, and we're trying to get his K/9 up to 11.06.

So... New K/9 = (Current K + consecutive batters)/(Current IP + consecutive batters/3)
11.06 = {(72 + X)/(102+X/3)}*9
1.23* (102+X/3)}=72+X
.40X+125.6=72+X
0.6X=53.6
X=89

Caleb's team would need to an out via the strikeout 89 consecutive batters to reach a K/9 of 11.06. That'd be just over 3 games. Since this rate stat is only impacted by IP, batters could record hits or walks during this streak, though.

Q4: How many innings would have to be recorded without a strikeout to drop my K/9 to Caleb's?
So... New K/9 = Current K/(Current IP + additional IP)
6.35 = 68/(55.33+IP)*9
0.705=68(55.33+IP)
0.705IP+39=68
.705IP= 29
IP=41

So, in order to drop my K/9 from 11.06 to 6.35, my team would have to record 123 consecutive outs (41 IP) without a strikeout.

Batting Average
Again, it's me and Caleb at the extremes. My team average is .282, while his is a paltry .192.

Q5: How many consecutive hits would it take for Caleb to raise his average to .282?
Target AVG= (Current hits + consecutive hits)/(Current AB + consecutive AB)
.282=(85+X)/(442+X)
124.64+.282X=85+X
39.64= 0.718X
X= 55 AB
So in just a couple of days, Caleb could raise his average to .282, provided of course that no one on his team made any outs at all. 

Q6: How many consecutive hitless at bats would it take to drop my average to .192?
Target avg = Current hits / (Current AB+ consecutive AB)
.192 = 114/(404+X)
77.57+0.192X=114
0.192X=36.43
X=190
It would take almost a weeks worth of hitless at bats to drop my batting average to 0.192.

I think that's enough math, but it is interesting that it is generally easier to make these rate stats go up (both ERA and AVG), rather than down. That does not bode well at all for my ERA. That's probably more than enough math for everyone on a Sunday morning, but there are a few other tidbits that jumped out at me when I looked at the standings.

Saves
Saves are really, really weird. I have 15 saves, almost twice as many as Caleb in 2nd (8). The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as the difference between 2nd and 8th. Also, a total of 37 saves have been recorded by started players in our league; Caleb and I have recorded 62% of the total saves. To put that into some context, that would be the equivalent percentage to Caleb and I combining for 68 home runs, 268 RBI, or 28 wins.  What makes saves particularly interesting, is that despite the top heavy nature of the standings (or perhaps because of the top heavy nature?), 3rd through 8th is extraordinarily tight. Only three saves separate last place in the category from 3rd, so Andrew, Kate, and Taylor have some clear opportunities to move up from the bottom of that pile, while Luke, Mark, and Spencer are at risk to lose points.With Wade Davis stepping into the closer role for Holland, Taylor, in particular, could be picking up points in short order.

Stolen Bases
Where saves are extremely top heavy with a couple teams having big leads, stolen bases are an absolute mess at the top. Five teams are either tied for the lead or within a single stolen base, and no one is particularly far behind in the category. In very different ways, both stolen bases and saves should be dynamic categories in the weeks to come.

Combined Bold predictions and discussion

I thought it might be nice to have all the bold predictions in one spot, to make it easier to have a discussion about all of them.

Bill:
1) Zach Britton is a top 5 closer and >9 K/9
2) Drew Hutchison 200K, top 20 SP
3) Brad Boxberger 30 SV OR 110K
4) Chris Sale >227K
5) Hanley Ramirez > 200 R+RBI

Andrew:
1) Drew Pomeranz is #1 A's pitcher
2) Albert Pujols >33HR
3) Phil Hughes top 12 SP
4) Michael Saunders >40 HR + SB
5) Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer

Caleb:
1) Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
2) George Springer >55 HR + SB
3) Shane Greene is the best $3 pitcher
4) Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin top 10 OF
5) Mike Napoli hits 25HR at has Player Rater >4.79

Luke:
1) Team finishes #1 in W
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR

The Last of the Zeroes

Two days in (well, really a day and a half with the short slate of games on Tuesday), . Just like some writers track who the last player to draw a walk is, I thought it'd be fun to track the zeroes in specific categories.

To start off, I'm going to throw out strikeouts. Everyone picked up a strikeout on opening day, and it doesn't seem meaningful to parse out times there.

Also, we're all on the board for RBI! Kate is bringing up the back of the pack here with 1, and I believe she was the last person to get on the board there, with Marcus Semien picking up a 4th inning RBI single in a 10 PM game on opening day.

Kate is also the last woman standing with a zero in runs and HR.  She has Arcia and Mauer going this afternoon, so either of those could change quickly if Anibal Sanchez throws a meatball.

With stolen bases, both Mark and Spencer are holding steady at zero. ESPN had both fairly close to the top of the standings in the category, so that isn't cause for concern. Also, the leader in the category has all of one stolen base, so it isn't like there's a huge gap opening already.

On to the pitching categories, where the discrete nature of many of the stats makes it a lot more interesting.

Andrew and Caleb are both sans wins at this point, but Andrew has three pitchers going today. To paraphrase him, albeit with much more colorful language, this run of starters will give him an idea whether his pitching be ok, a small problem like burning a pot on the stove, or a big problem, like the Door to Hell. Caleb has no one going today, and Shane Greene and Daniel Norris going tomorrow, so he's my pick to be stuck at 0 the longest.

Finally, we get to saves. Taylor, Kate, and Luke are all still waiting on their first save. Of the three, Luke is the only one with two healthy closers, and Kate has Betances (and Uehara, once he's healthy). Taylor snagged Mujica off the wire, so he at least has a short term option. He might be the last one standing at zero here, since the Red Sox offense has been looking great and the Phillies aren't exactly good at baseball. Long term, this looks like a huge area of weakness, too; once Uehara is healthy, Taylor is down to no closers at all.