Utter Andrew Domination

Have we ever had a winner with a higher point total? And with three kids to boot?  Congrats Andrew, those late nights in the film room really paid off!

Pitching for Hitting?

Looking to trade some quality starting pitching for some good hitting, probably OFs.

Everyone on the pitching staff (tanaka, Verlander, Quintana, etc.) on the block.

Danny Salazar is on the block

Well, instead of trying to trade my crappy pitchers (looking at you, untradeable Michael Pineda), I'm going to try and trade my good pitchers now!

Basically, I'm sort of stuck in no man's land right now, and I don't think my offense or SP depth is quite good enough to compete with Andrew or Caleb. I'm looking to make a deal involving Salazar and/or relievers (Miller, Betances traded singly; Davis or Britton as part of a closer swap) that would:
1. Add a good bit of upside to my team (rookies, pitching breakouts, etc.)
2. Shore up my offense via adding a player or upgrading

Essentially, I'm trying catapult my way into contention or go down in flames. If you're interested in Salazar, SP #2 on the player rater, let me know. I've reached out to a few of you already, but I haven't had time to go through all the rosters to explore possibilities.

Outfielders on the block

I've struck gold with my $1 and waiver wire outfielders and I am looking to move some to shore up some weaknesses, primarily speed.  In particular, I am looking to bundle the outfielders as part of a 2:1 or 3:2 while upgrading elsewhere.  Outfield, infield, and SP are all areas of possible upgrade for me, so if you are looking for outfield depth, let me know.  I'm going to try to reach out to folks individually as well.

Looking to deal speed/infielders

I find myself with a glut of infielders (Fielder/Teixeira/Santana/Hanley) and two speed only outfield guys, but holy crap can they run (Burns/Dyson). Looking to package guys from one or both areas for either an upgrade somewhere, particularly for an all around OF or starting pitching. Let me know if you see a deal that matches up. 

Ah, last place

Settling in...

Bill's Extremely Belated Bold Predictions

Apologies for these getting in so late. I don't think any are too impacted by week 1 of the season, though feel free to call me out if needed. Most of these were written before the season started, except those marked with an asterisk. 

Adrian Beltre is a top 3 3B

Beltre went for $17 in the draft, less than half of what Donaldson cost and just a hair over what Frazier cost. Throw in Manny Machado as a keeper, as well as Kyle Seager ($24) and Beltre has some stiff competition at the hot corner. Here’s the thing though – after struggling in the first half, Beltre was electric down the stretch (10 HR, 39 R, 56 RBI, .327 average), when he was finally able to put a thumb injury behind him. The Rangers offense clicked in the second half, so I think Beltre will elevate himself to the top of tier 2 at the position, behind Donaldson and Machado.

Mike Moustakas hits 28 HR, with 100 RBI with a .275 average

The power tool was always there with Moustakas, but contact issues and a pull happy approach limited his effectiveness. Moustakas has improved his K rate every year since 2012, even as K rates rose in the majors. In 2015, Moustakas conspicuously made an effort to use the whole field – hitting more balls to the opposite field in 2015 than he did the previous three years combined. I’m hoping that Moustakas can tap into his natural power (36 HR, .300+ ISO in the minors in 2012), while maintaining his more sophisticated approach that keeps defenses honest. Moose is absolutely crushing the ball this spring (1.047 OPS), but he does that every year, so I’m banking more on his scouting than his spring numbers here.

Marcus Semien is a top 2 shortstop

No, he’s not going to touch Carlos Correa, but Semien handled a major shift to shortstop last year including some rough defensive growing pains. He put up a 15 HR / 11 SB line overall, but had a rough midseason swoon before finishing extremely strong. That swoon coincided with an intensive focus on his defense with Ron Washington http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-marcus-semienron-washington-lesson/, and once the defense lessons were done, Semien went back to being a 130 wRC+ hitter. You conveniently set aside his midseason swoon, you get a 23 HR, 16 SB season (prorated for 600 AB). At the thinnest position in the AL, that’s a hell of a lot of production for $8.

Michael Pineda is a top 10 starter

Pineda was spectacular for the better part of the season last year, putting up a spectacular 111 K and only 13 BB in 106 innings before the break last year. Injuries and fatigue appeared to catch up with him, as his ERA was 5.80 in a limited 54 inning sample after the ASB. That shouldn’t be surprising, as Pineda hadn’t thrown that many innings in a season since 2011. With 161 innings under his belt from last year, Pineda is ready to step forward and be a clear cut #1 starter with his great K and walk rates, above average GB %, and a HR/FB rate that will return to league averages (~10%) from its inflated 2015 value (14.7%). My pitching model pegged Pineda as the 18^th best starter in all of baseball last year, and this year, he capitalizes on that promise and those underlying numbers en route to a top 10 SP season.

Luis Severino is a top 16 starter (drafted as SP #26)

Another darling of the model, Severino combines excellent control, a high ground ball rate, and very good strikeout numbers. The groundballs, in particular, will serve him well in some of the high HR parks of the AL East. The cherry on top? Severino’s walk rate was ok, but a touch worse than league average last year (8.6% vs 7.7%). However, based on his underlying plate discipline numbers, in particular, getting a first pitch strike 63% of the time, I projected an above average walk rate (7.1%). Some of that gap may be a learning curve dealing with hitters in the majors, but if he bridges even half that gap, his strikeout rate (8.1 K /9) and groundball rate (50%) peg him as a massive breakout.

Kevin Gausman puts his shoulder weakness behind him and breaks out, besting his 2015 season across the board, topping his 2015 K/9 (8.3), BB/9 (2.3) and posting an ERA of 3.50 or better. Gausman has been pegged by many as a breakout year after year, but this is the year he finally puts it all together. He’s generating an increasing number of pop ups and his K rate has been steadily improving. Bonus prediction: Despite a preseason evaluation from Taylor that “he doesn’t fit my current approach to pitching”, Taylor will begrudgingly trade for Gausman in July.

**Hanley takes to 1B, posting a .300 / 25 HR / 10 SB season

Had high hopes for Hanley last year, but that was clearly a disaster. He’s slimmed down this offseason, and crushed the ball in spring training. Back in the infield, he won’t have to worry about his defense as much, and he can get back to being a steady all around performer at first. 25 HR would be the highest total for him since 2008, but he did crack 10 HR in April last year (en route to a terribly disappointing 19 on the year). .300/25/10 doesn't seem like a ton, except no one did it at 1B last year, 1B #3 Eric Hosmer came closest, but only 18 HR. There’s no outfield wall for Hanley to worry about now, so watch out. Bonus prediction: Hanley’s UZR/150 at 1B will be 0 or higher (above average fielder).

**Prorated for 150 games, Devon Travis sets a 40 HR+SB, 100 R pace

The Blue Jays offense is dominant from just about top to bottom, the exception being Ryan Goins and others at the keystone. Travis was a spectacular hitter last season, crushing the ball, walking a ton, and stealing a few bases. Travis stole more bases in the minors, and it looks like at 24 he started to develop a good bit more power, especially on pitches up and in. Put together that profile, plus his relatively diminutive size (5’9”), you’re looking at vintage Pedroia tomahawking balls over the Green Monster. Travis is recovering from significant shoulder surgery now, but is expected to be back in late May. Once he’s back, though, he’ll work his way to the top of the Blue Jays lineup and fill up box scores in a hurry.

**Setting aside saves, Betances is #1 RP in the Yankees bullpen for all 4 categories (via PR score)

He’s up against two truly elite teammates, but Dellin Betances is just absolutely lights out. He has a head start on innings vs. Chapman, and a role more suited to throwing two innings at a time than Miller, and might even pile up 100 IP this season. Miller or Chapman might beat him a bit in ERA or WHIP, but when you weight his still elite performance by innings (as the player rater does) Betances will come out as the across the board champ in the Yankees pen. Combine that with a cheaper (though still significant) $7 price tag, and you’ve got a nice value to limit damage on missing badly on Gausman, Severino, or Pineda.

**Steve Souza combines for 50 HR+SB

Just a year too early Andrew! A year too early. God, what kind of idiot told you to make that trade.

Andrew's bold predictions

Andrew's BOLD predictions

1)  Michael Saunders returns to vintage form and is a top 20 outfielder.  His average won't be great, but in the Blue Jays lineup he should manage plenty of R, RBI, and HR and even toss in some SB.

2)Blake Swihart is the best catcher drafted for less than $10. He will top Vogt, Wieters, Gomes, and Jason Castro. This might not be bold enough, so I'll add in a wrinkle- he'll beat all these guys, AND out perform one of the other more expensive catchers as well (McCann, Perez, and Martin).  I am expecting a plus average, 15-20 HR, and a few steals mixed in for good measure.

3) Jonathan Schoop will hit 25+ home runs.  This is not bold. Everyone has been talking about his power potential.  Here's the bold part-- he'll hit 25 home runs, AND, for the first time in his major league career, have more walks than home runs!

4) Lindor shows that last season's power surge is for real, matching or besting his ISO from 2015.  I wanted to make this about fantasy/counting stats, but it was

5) Pedroia puts up a 15/15 season, something he hasn't done since 2012.  Injuries have slowed him down a lot, but I am thinking Pedroia has another top tier fantasy season left in the tank.

6) Jackie Bradley Jr. finishes within 3 player rater points of Mookie Betts.  Betts has been getting all the fantasy attention in the Red Sox outfield, but I think Bradley is poised to build on his success at the end of last season.  I'm thinking 20 HR, 12 SB, and an average around league average (our league hit ~0.265 last season).

7) Kyle Gibson takes a step forward and finishes the season with a K% above 20.  He hasn't done this in even a half season, but he did show flashes of this ability throughout last season.  His swinging strike rate suggests he should be striking guys out at something much closer to an average rate.

10 Bold Predictions

Each bold prediction contains one real baseball prediction plus one fantasy-related prediction. Might as well double my chances to look foolish! Also provided is my favorite offshore online gambling odds, for entertainment purposes only of course. 
1) Dallas Kuechal wins the AL CY Young (+600) and finishes the season with more IP and K's than Chris Sale.
2)  The Tigers go from worst to first in the AL Central (+425). Justin Upton finishes the season as the Tiger's highest rated position player (ESPN player rater).
3) The affable Pedro Alvarez hits above .250 for the first time in his career while Chris Davis hits below .250. The Orioles finish last in the AL East (-110 under 80.5 wins).
4)  Aroldis Chapman beats his 2015 save total and finishes the season as the highest rated AL reliever. The Yankees finish third in the AL East, but still make the wildcard (-110 over 85 wins).
5) Rick Porcello regains some of his form and finishes the season with 12+ wins, good for second most on the Red Sox. The Red Sox finish second in the AL East (-110 over 85.5 wins).
6) Jose Altuve finishes higher in the ESPN player rater and hits more HR+SB than Mike Trout for the second straight year. The Astros finish first in the AL West and have best record in AL (+150 to win West / -110 over 85.5 wins / Altuve +2500 to win AL MVP).
7) Alex Gordon finishes in top 5 for WAR among players 32 and older (Finished 12th in 2015 among 31 and older). Royals miss playoffs (-110 under 87 wins).
8) Clay Buchholz pitches more innings than any of his previous three seasons (170.1 IP), but sub 4 run support per 9 IP for the third straight season keeps him from double digit wins (and keep Red Sox from winning AL East).
9) Khris Davis has his first 30+ HR season of his career. Someone bids a non-zero dollar amount on Billy Butler at some point this season. Oakland still worst team in AL, but Warriors win NBA Finals (-140).
10) Xander Boegarts beats his steamer projections (.291BA/15HR/78R/77RBI/7SB) in all 5 categories. Finishes as season leader in all but SB among SS. Red Sox win Pennant! (+600)

BOLD predictions review

Andrew:
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Oh no. Oh Lord no.  He wasn't even IN the rotation by the end of the season!

2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
COUNT IT! In spite of a sagging average and abysmal BABIP, Pujols did manage to slam 40 HR.

3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
This was also terrible.  By player rater, Phil Hughes was 51st.

4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Saunders managed exactly 0 HR and SB, so I was only one digit off!  He did not even manage 40 PA.

5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Near miss.  Gregerson finished as the 6th closer, but was only 0.07 player rater points behind number 5, Scott Tolleson.

1/5, plus close miss.

Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Britton was just as amazing as Bill expected.

2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison was a tire fire.  

3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
He had some ugly rate stats, the WHIP of 1.37 in particular, but Boxberger notched 41 saves.

4. Chris Sale >227 K
Sale led the AL with 274Ks and was outstanding.

5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
This was not meant to be.

3/5, but Bill's misses were pretty spectacular.  Not Saunders spectacular, but still spectacular.

Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia didn't even finish as the top 2B on his team, as he was narrowly edged out by BROCK HOLT!  Injuries were the big issue here, as Pedroia, when healthy, did manage to have his highest HR/FB since 2011 and ISO since 2012.

2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Springer, like Pedroia, was undone by injuries.  He did manage to go 16HR/16SB in 450 plate appearances, but even scaling up, Springer was short of Caleb's target of 55.

3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene imploded fairly spectacularly as the season progressed and finished 148th in the player rater.  The best <$3 pitcher probably had to go to Carlos Rodon.  That said, on the whole, the drafted pitchers under $3 were really bad and were bested by many waiver players.

4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Leonys Martin killed this one so hard, but even Kole Calhoun couldn't crack the top 10.  He finished at 16th.

5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Napoli did manage 18 HR in 460 PA, but a terrible average and lackluster counting stats pulled his overall player rater line down to 0.41.


0/5, and Caleb didn't even come close on any of them.

Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke's team finished 2nd to last in wins, showing that predicting wins is a fools errand.

2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson blew Luke's bold prediction clear out of the water, hitting 0.297, 41HR, and 245 R + RBI.

3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
 Only two players on Luke's drafted team managed to go 10/10-- Brantley and Gardner.  His other possibilities fell short to due injuries, ineffectiveness, or both (see Shane Victorino)

4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley was dinged up all year and finished short of his 2014 stats in every category.

5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR  
Adam LaRoche, before his whole "Let's have my 14 year old spend his entire fucking life in the clubhouse instead of school" plan blew up his 2016 season, blew up his own 2015 season with a preposterously bad 0.207/0.293/0.340 line and only 12 HR.  He didn't even manage 34 extra base hits. 
1/5, but BOY did Luke nail that one.


So, overall, we hit on 25% of our predictions.  Seems about right, but man oh man we all had spectacular failures in there.  Unsurprisingly, the league champion had the best predictions.  Who is ready to go out there and make theirs for this season?

ESPN Projected Standings

Here are the ESPN projected standings that I quickly threw together. No analysis yet, but Caleb is clearly the frontrunner after the draft. With that set of keepers, there is no surprise there. From 2nd to 6th there is a big clump of teams, followed by Andrew and his incredible 6 points from hitters (2nd to last in AVG). And Spencer is last, now and ever shall be.

	Pitching	Hitting	Total
Caleb	24	35	59
Kate	20	30	50
Mark	28	21	49
Luke	18.5	29	47.5
Taylor	20	26	46
Bill	28	17	45
Andrew	31.5	6	37.5
Spencer	10	16	26