It isn't likely, but Andrew does still have a path to victory, in part because we're going head to head in several categories, As of Monday morning, by lead is 7.5 points, but if everything breaks just right for Andrew, I see up to 10.5 net points for him (factoring in losses from me, and gains for him).
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
I am up 23 runs on Andrew, so that should be out of reach, especially with teams starting to sit players this last week of the season. Also, Andrew is leading in HR, so he has no points to gain there, and I have a 12 HR lead on Caleb which should remain safe. Finally, RBI. Andrew is 18 RBI behind me. All season long, there has been one week where he had 19 RBI more than me - with fewer starts likely, I think that is out of reach as well.
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
| Bill | Andrew | |
| R | 23 | -23 |
| HR | 12 | NA |
| RBI | 18 | -18 |
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| AVG | 0.0012 | 0.0024 |
| WHIP | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| ERA | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| K | 112 | 8 |
| SV | 8 | T |
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| SB | 1, 3 | 2, 3 |
| W | T, 2 | T |
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
8 comments:
My big Ben Revere plan has failed to pay off. I was really counting on winning steals with that pick up. I suppose my consolation is that Parra and Gomez have been really bad since coming over. At least Revere is hitting.
But the bigger question is how can Luke avoid paying a suxury tax in the next 5 days?
Does not look good at all for Luke avoiding the suxury tax. If anything, I'd say things are likely to get worse.
R, SB, K, ERA, and WHIP all likely won't change. Average could go either way (.001 behind me, .0007 ahead of Spencer).
He could gain points in RBI (3 back) and HR (3 way tie) but Mark and Taylor have blown him out of the water in HR in the last two full weeks (6 for Luke, 19 for Taylor, 18 for Mark) and Taylor has out RBIed him 75-39 in that same span. If anything, he's likely to lose another point in HR as Mark and Taylor pass him.
He losses in W and SV are in play as well. He's one save up on Spencer, but has been outsaved 8-4 in the last week. He and Kate both have 4 wins in the last two full weeks, but Kate only has 2 starts scheduled, while Luke has 6.
If I had to guess, I'd say he loses 1 pt in HR and 1 in W and ends up at 25 and our first victim of the suxury tax.
Big swing so far for Andrew today. Two steals from Lindor and one from Revere puts him up into a tie for first, passing Spencer along the way (+1.5 pts, -0.5 for me). Couple that with 14 Ks in 9 IP and he's only 3.5 points out of first.
Meanwhile, Luke's team hits 4 homers and he's up to 28.5...
Homer #5 pushes it to 29. Just nuts. 6 HR in two weeks, then 5 in one night.
Bill's monster pitching day meant he passed me in ERA and WHIP. I wasn't sure that was possible, but my pitching additions (Hamels 3.63/1.28, Felix 4.59/1.31, and Koji DNP Broken) have been worse than the guys I traded away (Gregerson 3.20/0.92 9 saves, Heaney 4.37/1.37, Odor 25R/7HR/24RBI). Toss in the ill-fated Smyly-Tazawa trade (Smyly 2.90/1.24, Tawaza was so bad I can't even look at the numbers), it appears I completely suck at deadline deals.
All told, I'm down 2.5 points in saves and a point or two in each ERA/WHIP. Those points sure would make this week a lot more interesting.
Amazingly, I think my pitching deal with Mark has hurt my chances. There were other components to the deal, but essentially on the pitching side it was Richards/Salazar/Tanaka for Keuchel/Ventura.
While the three I acquired have been solid (3.46, 1.20 WHIP, 151 K, 12 W), Keuchel and Ventura have both been so unbelievably good they pretty much beat Richards/Salazar/Tanaka on their own despite throwing nearly 50 fewer innings (2.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 140 K, 12 W).
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