We are down to about 10 days of baseball, with the season ending on September 28th! Will Bill hold on? Will Luke go oh-fer in the Mike Trout era? Just how bad would Andrew's offense be without Jose Altuve? Hint: I am hitting 0.246 without him (it's the latest in advanced statistics AWOA, or Average without Altuve), and he has more than 40% of my stolen bases.
My prediction is that Bill wins by holding on to his slight edge in Ks and picking up a half point from Taylor by pulling ahead in saves. Luke manages to pass Bill in stolen bases, but in the end that isn't quite enough for Luke to overcome his middling WHIP and ERA.
What do you think will happen?
35 comments:
5 points looks like a lot, but I think Luke has a chance.
He barely trails Bill in 3 categories: SB, K, and W. If he passes Bill in 2 out of 3 (while staying ahead of him in RBI, where he leads by 9), we'll have a total dogfight.
Bill could gain points in W and S, but could also lose points in those categories. And he's a little bit vulnerable in AVG and ERA as well.
Meanwhile, Luke has a chance to pick up extra points in W and ERA, and I don't see too many places where he can lose points.
My money's still on Bill, but I'd give Luke at least a 20% chance.
Sadly, that's a better chance than I have of finishing 7th. Hall of Shame here I come.
Also, it's pretty impressive that Andrew might go 8th to 4th after dumping his whole team.
Five points is a lot, but things have been oscillating between 2 and 5 points for awhile now.
I think I'll hang on to Ks, but a lot will depend on how things shake out in the final week. Rotations are always juggled around, so that can totally screw with plans about the innings cap and you never know when a couple long starts will push you over the cap. Who knows about stolen bases. We'll see if some of Luke's stolen base threats get shut down early (like Gardner) as teams fall out of contention.
I have to say, I think Bill has just about got this thing wrapped up. I really need just about everything to go right to catch him.
There's a lot of strategic decisions to make going into the final week with so many categories so close. It'd be fun to discuss more, but I just can't until after rosters lock on Monday.
My whole 8th to 4th thing is powered entirely on totally unexpected success with my apparently replacement level pitching. Really, it is all Carlos Carasco. The dude has given up 8 ER in 43 innings, and I had snagged him as a RP.
Anyone else unable to put in claims on guys this evening?
I'm having no trouble at all. Maybe try logging out and in again? Or clear your ESPN cookies? I had a weird issue with being unable to change my football lineup the in week 2 which I managed to get around with an Incognito window.
Yep, working fine on a different device.
Taylor I wouldn't count on finishing 8th. You're suddenly half a point behind me after making huge gains in ERA and passing me.
Yeah, where did that come from? I didn't think I was close enough to catch you in ERA. We'll see if I can hold on to it.
Still a 5 point lead for Bill. Luke's got to make a move...
Ah, 3rd place. What a disappointingly unremarkable result. Would rather the hall of shame!
I think Bill has just about wrapped this up. He was smart to pick up Bud Norris. Norris is destroying any hope I had of catching Bill in Ks right now. Sale is doing his best to keep it close, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near enough. I'll need Jon Lester to have a record-breaking performance this afternoon in order to have a chance.
I made a major blunder on Sunday that could end up having an impact.
Bill is almost certainly going to hit the innings limit tomorrow when Shields and Scherzer pitch. The way ESPN does it, when you hit the limit you continue to accrue stats from all your pitchers for the rest of the day. So if Bill goes into tomorrow at, say, 1242 innings, and Shields and Scherzer combine for 14 innings, he'll actually get 1256 innings on the season.
On Sunday, Brandon McCarthy was listed as the probable starter for the Yankees on the last day of the season. I had 37.2 innings left before this week, and with the guys I started McCarthy would be getting my 6th start of the week on the last day. I didn't want to start an 8th pitcher (not even a reliever) because I thought doing so would make me go over the limit before Sunday and thus McCarthy's start wouldn't count. Starting just 7 pitchers seemed like the best way to go into McCarthy's final start at somewhere between 1245-1249 innings, allowing me to get some "extra" innings out of McCarthy.
Since I was scraping the bottom of the barrel on waivers looking for any hitters likely to contribute HRs and SBs in the last week, I dropped all my pitchers besides the 7 I wanted to start. I wasn't sure which of all these random hitters from waivers I would actually start and didn't want to decide until I could at least see Monday's lineups, since some of these guys don't play every day.
Come Monday, turns out the Yankees are going with Pineda for their last game. Doh! I could've plugged in Kuroda for 1 more start had I not dropped him. At this point, there's a decent chance that I don't end up hitting the innings limit at all. Really hurts my chances of catching Bill in Ks or Ws, though the latter is looking like it would've been out of reach either way.
With Norris winning tonight and Lester and Sale not winning, Luke can't pass me in wins. I think it comes down to Ks, homers, and stolen bases, with Luke needing to win all three in order to win. Right now we are tied in homers and steals, so that is a crapshoot. I am hoping my last in innings pitched well let me hang on to strikeouts, but it may come down to the wire. I had been planning to throw four starters tomorrow, but the red Sox juggled their rotation and Stroman got suspended, so I am down to two. It looks like I will end up right at the cap, rather than well over it as I'd hoped, so strikeouts are definitely in play. It'll be interesting to see how three last few days pan out.
Even if I did win all 3 of those categories, I'd need another half point somewhere to tie. There are a lot of ways I could get that half point, though.
We'll know a lot more tomorrow after Shields, Scherzer, Hammel, and Iwakuma pitch.
Villar HR! One of my waiver claims actually did some good!
Yeah, I think strong performances (especially with regard to Ks) from Scherzer and Shields or weak ones from Iwakuma and Hammel could really wrap things up for me. If I end today with a 12+ lead in Ks, I'm feeling pretty good. That said, once I'm done today, my pitching is done.
As far as that last half point, there aren't too many places for me to lose any points. I'm two wins ahead of Mark, and he only has two starters going the rest of the week. Saves are a possibility, as I'm 3 saves ahead of Taylor, but my pitching stats will be locked by the end of the day tomorrow. Only Holland is pitching tonight, so I could pick up at most one more. Taylor has Nathan and Janssen closing, but the Tigers could rest Nathan the last few days of the season. Really, the only place I can lose points is in average, where I'm only .0007 ahead of Kate, thanks to my struggling offense.
As far as Luke gaining points, he can't gain anything more than what was discussed above in ANY offensive categories. Ks are already spotted to him, saves are totally out of reach, and ERA and WHIP seem unlikely to change at this late stage. That leaves just wins. He's currently tied with Kate, and has 2 starters left to her 3. If Luke breaks that tie, and beats me in K, HR, and SB, that'd leave us tied. If he can tie Mark (currently 2 ahead, 3 SP left to go), that'd be enough to win, but that seems unlikely.
Also, it looks like Iwakuma's start was pushed back a day, switching him to the Angels. That shouldn't make a material difference in his IP total - I'm glad the Tigers and Royals didn't shuffle around their rotations, because a swap like that could have screwed me.
I'm not sure whether Iwakuma got pushed back or if I just had it wrong yesterday.
Aaaand it starts. Reyes is not playing today, with the Jays out of contention. I'm expecting to find out shortly that Gardner is sitting too, now that the Yankees are officially done. Right when I really need another stolen base!
On Bill's end, David Ortiz is sitting today for the 2nd day in a row.
There were a lot more ways for me to get that half point yesterday, before none of Mark's FOUR starting pitchers yesterday got wins and Cody Allen picked up a save. I don't think Janssen is still getting save opportunities for the Jays, either. Damnit, Taylor, why is Jared Burton on your bench?!
At this point I'm pretty much counting on Caleb to make up that .0007 difference in batting average.
Watching the AVG race between Caleb and Bill is fun....and agonizing. Caleb just shrunk the gap down to .0001, then Cain, Cespedes, and Donaldson all got hits and Caleb made a few outs. Back to .0006. Each hit seems to move the needle about .0001.
Yup, each hit bumps the average up by a touch over .0001, which is kind of nuts really. I wouldn't have thought it would be that responsive at this late stage. Each out drops the average by .00004, at this point.
Big start by Max Scherzer thus far - 4 IP, 8 K, which is absolutely huge. Running up a pitch count though (82 through 4 IP), so I doubt he'll have the chance to get up to 12 or 13 K.
Maybe even more important than Scherzer's start: you just got a rare steal from Cespedes. Actually, it was a double steal with ALLEN CRAIG of all people.
Well, I'm officially over the inning cap now. After tonight, that closes the books on my pitching stats. Hopefully Shields can go deep into this game, because I can't imagine Scherzer is coming out for the 7th after throwing 116 pitchers through 6.
Really not looking good for me right now. When the dust settled from all the Jeter madness and I was feeling happy that Jeter, er, I mean Robertson, got me a W, I looked at the standings and noticed a lot of bad things happened for me near the end of the night.
Beltre hit a walk-off HR, Kate kept up with me in Ws by getting one from Neftali Feliz, the AVG gap between Bill and Caleb widened to .0011, and Bill got 2 more Ks from Cody Allen to bring his K lead to 12.
Over the last 3 days, I need +1 HR, +2 SB, and 13 Ks (Iwakuma is my last SP, I have 10.1 IP left, and Rodney and Robertson pitching in relief) just to get within half a point. I have a stupid unrealistic fantasy that the Yankees will call on McCarthy to pitch in relief Sunday after Pineda gets knocked out early.
Passing Kate in Ws could tie it, but she has 3 starters left so it's much more likely that she passes me. Maybe I can tie Mark in Ws, though. Going to have to cheer for my closers to blow saves, I guess. Probably Caleb has to pass Bill in AVG for me to have a chance.
I'd put my odds at well less than 1%. But, hey, my chances are probably better than the likelihood that Jeter would get a walk-off hit when it was 5-2 in the top of the 9th, right?
I actually think the big performance K wise for me last night is the most damaging to your chances. At this point, you'd need 13 K in 10 1/3 IP (since you really won't be able to get up over the cap without any more starters going).
Although Iwakuma has struck out almost 8 /9 IP this season, his underlying numbers peg him more like a 6.75 K/9 guy (I made a fancy model! And then traded all the best finds from said model to Andrew before I got any use out of them). Also, The Angels have been quite good of late, 9th in the AL in strikeout rate. Finally, Iwakuma is dinged up (groin and back issues, per the manager), and the Mariners may go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble, as they are basically in a must win situation (down 2 games, 3 to go).
We'll obviously know more after tonight, but I think five or fewer Ks would pretty much lock things up for me.
Okay, I am ready to concede. Barring complete insanity in the rest of today's action and tomorrow's games, the 1st place title this year will go to Bill.
I'm down 5 Ks with only 2 innings left to the limit. Rodney and Robertson both pitched the last 2 days, so they each have at most 1 appearance remaining. They'd have to both strike out the side in their respective innings, or I would have to get a highly unlikely relief appearance from one of my SPs. I could see Hammel being called on in relief tomorrow, but it matters little because Bill has gone on a SB binge and now leads the category by 4. Meanwhile, he's upped his AVG, and the gap between him and Caleb now stands at .0012.
Congrats to Bill on assembling a well-balanced team that has been strong in all 10 categories.
Out of curiosity, Bill, what does your model say Iwakuma's K/9 should've been in 2012 and 13? I dimly remember some articles saying he may have a skill in getting more Ks than his peripherals would suggest. Maybe something about a high chase rate with 2 strikes based on his pitch selection? Zunino's ability to get called strikes via pitch-framing may be a factor in his favor as well, at least for 2014.
Actually, my model has Iwakuma as substantially better in 2013 than 2014, with the biggest source being a much, much higher swinging strike rate (10.4% in 2013, 22nd out of 81; 8.8% in 2014, 44th out of 88). 2012 is between the two, but again, his swinging strike rate was a good bit better in 2012 than 2014 (9.5%, would have been 28th had not been 27 IP short to qualify).
I think that narrative regarding Iwakuma makes sense with regard to his raw stuff, but he's generating swings and misses that are commensurate to his overall K rate.
Nice job Bill!
And Luke, way to trade Mike Trout and not win!
Congrats Bill on a convincing and well deserved league championship. At 66 points, it's the most dominant performance of the modern era (2010-present).
I had to settle for the most dominant performance by a last place team in the modern era. At this point I'll take whatever I can get.
Let me know how you'd like your $50.
Thanks guys. I didn't expect to win by such a large margin, nor did I really expect to win at all once Luke dealt Trout for most of Andrew's team and spun off Quintana for Iwakuma and Ellsbury. A few different breaks and things could have easily turned out rather different.
Also, it is nice to win again after being in the top two or three so often.
Coming into this year, since 2008 (6 seasons) I had three runner up finishes and one third place, compared to one title. I'm quite proud that one year where I didn't place I did manage an impressive 24 points though, a last place finish by a record 8 points.
Well done Bill, quite an envious pitching staff. I should have traded you Tanaka and Richards when you gave me the chance!
How do the payouts work? I assume Kate and I split what is owed to 2nd and 3rd.
Congrats Bill! McDowell dominance.
Updated the hall of champions today; Spencer, feel free to give me a hard time about tossing it immediately when I win. MVP was a bit of an interesting decision. After ask my trades and citing a ton of guys I drafted, there were only four players on my team who were on it the entire season - Donaldson, Santana, Archer, and Allen. I ended up picking Donaldson over Santana and ESPN agree with me, but interestingly, I really didn't have any elite hitters by the end of the season.
Re Mark's question about payouts, yes, you and Kate would each chip in 25, 30 of which would go to Luke and 20 to Spencer. Or you could arm wrestle for the five bucks at the wedding. Smart money is on Kate.
Taylor's first baseball SHAME! Welcome!!
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