I really enjoyed this series last year, so I wanted to keep it going again.
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.
4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.
5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.
Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.
4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.
5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.
Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).
11 comments:
Man, that is really something that you cut Myers instead of Rondon. That's something that could end up costing you more than just one championship. With the 2nd half he ended up having you easily would've been justified to give him a 3 year deal at $16/year.
Yup, it was an absolutely terrible decision. At the time, Myers was not hitting at all in AAA, but even still, it was a bad decision. It is easy to forget that he spent the first few months of the season hitting .220 or so in the minors.
It's really hard to not give up on those guys when they're struggling early on and wasting a roster spot. Last year I dropped Leonys Martin early on when I should have dropped Erasmo Ramirez.
...and I picked up both those guys off the wire! Thanks, you two!
Yeah, the decision to drop Myers did sting, both in terms of what it cost me and what Andrew gained from it. If I remember correctly, though, it was Taylor who picked him up, but then traded him for Nate McClouth to Andrew?
Not sure I would have done 3 years (the K rate is a bit high, which makes me worry a little bit, plus the loss of value in years 1 and 2), but I certainly would have done 2.
Ugh, you had to bring up the Myers/McLouth trade...
Ugh, you had to bring up the Myers/McLouth trade...
Also, you forgot about $1 Brandon Morrow!
Fixed that - thanks for catching that. Looks like I missed Tommy Milone, too.
Sigh. Stupid Wil Myers.
Milone was added via waivers on Saturday I believe.
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