I was looking at last year's draft and comparing it to overall values. I was struck by how much dead money there was (players who were drafted, but were below replacement level) - $338 split between 66 players. Most of that money went to players who were at least on the bubble of starting ($264 to players paid $8 or more).
Here is a team (using the full $260 budget), comprised entirely of below replacement players:
Ouch. The money lost on bad picks dwarfs any keeper gains ($492 of salary for $564 of value). No surprises at the bottom of the keeper value list - Brett Lawrie and Prince Fielder both fell more than $10 short of their cost, but Josh Hamilton "wins out" at -$13.
On the flip side, the top 24 undrafted free agents accounted for $245 worth of value. This doesn't even take into account the many, many players who were drafted, cut, then went on to provide a lot of value, such as Leonys Martin ($15), Ivan Nova ($8), or Ubaldo Jimenez ($12).
Better use the wire well if you want to win!
Here is a team (using the full $260 budget), comprised entirely of below replacement players:
Ouch. The money lost on bad picks dwarfs any keeper gains ($492 of salary for $564 of value). No surprises at the bottom of the keeper value list - Brett Lawrie and Prince Fielder both fell more than $10 short of their cost, but Josh Hamilton "wins out" at -$13.
On the flip side, the top 24 undrafted free agents accounted for $245 worth of value. This doesn't even take into account the many, many players who were drafted, cut, then went on to provide a lot of value, such as Leonys Martin ($15), Ivan Nova ($8), or Ubaldo Jimenez ($12).
Better use the wire well if you want to win!
12 comments:
Now can you look at the standings based on drafted teams? That's always fun.
You can! That's a hell of a lot more work...
Oh, and overall, Albert Pujols was the least valuable player (-$42), or more negative value than 2 Mike Trouts.
If Pujols was the worst player, why isn't he on the roster?
Pujols provided the worst value, in terms of cost relative to production. However, he was still above replacement value (~$6 of production). Everyone on the roster above provided less production than replacement level.
This looks like my entire team.
Bourne not the least valuable? WIN!
What is incredible is that there was only one player who could have "topped" Pujols' -$42 value (since I just made all below replacement players worth $0) - Miguel Cabrera at $52. Even if $38 Jose Bautista blew out his knee immediately following the draft, he STILL would have been $4 better than Pujols.
Hmm, though isn't that assuming that no player can have a negative value? They could, couldn't they?
Well yes, they could, but in general, the negative value is relatively small compared to cost, plus, you'd have to constantly be running a player out there.
Brandon Morrow had the highest salary for the notable negative players ($17), and as terrible as he was, he was still only worth -$6, for -$23 worth of value. Or, to coin a new unit of lack of value, a demi-Pujols.
Just saw this now. Have to say I am surprised that only 3 of my drafted guys are on this team. It felt like I had a lot more busts than that.
Any idea how much value Andrew got off the wire? Between Peralta, Martin, McLouth, and I think many others, it must've been huge, right?
It would be trickier to quantify the value of guys Andrew got off the wire. We could look at their entire season contributions, but it isn't as clear to me how to deal with how to value players who started a handful of weeks but did really well.
Post a Comment