Hey, remember baseball? It's still happening!
In the McDowell division, Andrew and Bill are neck and neck for first. Nice of Bill to make some bold moves in August and give us a race, or this season would have been really boring. They're close in saves, which may alone determine the winner, but Bill is also close to a number of other teams in multiple categories - if he can come out on top in the majority of them, he may be able to cobble together the points he needs to pass Andrew permanently.
In the Murphy division, Luke and I are fighting to stay out of the Shame category in the Hall of Champions. It would be Luke's first appearance in the Hall of Champions of any kind (believe it or not, he's never finished last before!). Our teams are hilariously ugly aggregates of sucky young guys, sucky old guys, and guys who we hope will make it all worthwhile next year. Winner saves $20.
In the non-Murphy non-McDowell division, Mark and Kate are close for 3rd and Taylor and Spencer are each trying for 5th. Not much chance of movement outside of those races at this point, I'm afraid. $20 on the line in both races. Kate's chances took a bit of a hit with Machado's ugly injury today (shortly after rosters locked for the week, naturally), and she may have lost a little keeper value as well.
And in non-fantasy baseball, the Sox have locked up the AL East and are considered among the favorites in the playoffs. Pretty amazing after the last 2-3 seasons, and a hell of a lot of fun.
21 comments:
Should be a fun last week... Diving a bit more into the standings:
The rundown for first place
Total potential points to be gained:
Bill 4 (HR, RBI, W, S)
Andrew 2 (R, S)
Total potential points to be lost:
Bill 1 (SB)
Andrew 2 (AVG, S*)
* leads Bill by 2 saves
If Bill can catch Andrew in saves or has an offensive explosion it should be enough for him to take home his 2nd championship. Otherwise, he may be looking at a consecutive second place finish. Innings limits will come into play as Bill will probably be out of inning by end of the day on Wednesday and Andrew might have enough for the entire week using 4 relievers and only 4 scheduled starts this week.
Monday's recap:
Tough luck for Bill. Loses out on gaining a half point as Verlander pitches 6 innings, 12 K, but watches the bullpen give up a three run lead. Offense picks up with 2 homeruns and 7 RBI. Bill now 2 HRs and 6 RBI back from first in those categories. Andrew does not gain any ground in runs and gets 4 innings of relief but no saves out of it. Fortunately, he does not lose any ground in those categories and remains 2 runs and 2 saves behind.
Wow, just looked at the Hall of Champions and realized that a McDowell appears on it every season. A Wong appeared in the Hall every year before 2012.
The lost win really, really stings. I agonized over and over about just how many starters I could throw out there without losing Cobb's Thursday start against the Yankees, which ought to be my last of the season. I figure I'll hit the IP cap Thursday, so I won't compete in saves.
In my mind, yesterday was an OK day. Despite the lost win, I'm now in striking distance in HR and RBI. Wednesday ought to provide a lot of clarity as to whether or not I can make a real run at it.
Well shit. The A's pushed Colon's start back to Friday, from his scheduled Wednesday start. With 4 starters going Wednesday and Thursday, and 27 IP remaining, I'm not too hopeful about getting one last start out of him.
Thanks for the more in-depth look, Mark. I started to break it down by category but got overwhelmed and gave up. Now it looks so simple, of course.
Sounds like good news on Machado, shockingly enough (given how ugly it looked).
This is pretty frickin exciting!
Although both Andrew and I lost a point on Tuesday, I lost a point in strike outs to Mark, who is now 1 IP away from the cap. Since he's only 1 K ahead of me, I'll get that point back. Andrew, on the other hand, is now .0007 behind Kate in batting average, which is not guaranteed.
I am still 2 homers and 7 RBI behind Mark, both well within striking distance, but it'll take a big day to pass him in those two categories.
I'm also now 2 wins behind Caleb and 3 behind Taylor. While I might get half a point in wins, anything more is looking rather unlikely.
Andrew is up to a 3 save lead, which probably puts saves out of reach for me. However, he is also 2 saves behind both Kate and Taylor - adding any more points in saves would be huge for him at this point. Andrew also remains behind Taylor in runs by 5.
For me, I think the easiest path to victory is this:
Andrew doesn't gain any more points in saves, runs, or average.
I pick up 1 point in Ks and one in HR or RBI.
Money line for adjusted for Tuesday:
Bill Even
Andrew -110
Bill chances of picking up a point in wins suffers after a nice complete game shutout by Jason Vargas (first W in September!). Saves also appear out of reach now (-3); however, with a 3 SB lead, that category appears to be safe now (wow - Rios has 40 SB this year).
Total points to be gained:
Bill 4 (K, HR, RBI, W)
Andrew 3 (AVG, R, S)
Total points to be lost:
Bill 0
Andrew 0
Bill will gain back the point in K's so we've essentially got a tie with 5 days to go. I am going to give Andrew the slight edge now as I think he can gets the point back in average (Kate's team is batting .323 so far this week) and Bill can't get two full points out of HR and RBI.
Also, what is the tiebreaker? I remember not being able to find it very easily before and I can't locate it now. I think it is something completely arbitrary like ERA. Seems like co-champions would be preferable to what amounts to a coin flip.
Why can't I get 2 full points out of home runs and RBI? Are you talking about each category, because one in each is definitely within reach.
Mark, I think you had a good idea for tiebreakers back in 2009:
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2048853915855998385&postID=1122993813322749113
True, I should not have said "can't" b/c both categories are certainly within reach. I just like Andrew's position a bit better right now given that I think gaining back the point in AVG is more probable than gaining 1.5 points from RBI + HR. It's really close... line probably should be -110 for Bill as well but Andrew has the 1 point lead right now so he get's the edge.
OK. The other thing to consider is that they're codependent. If I pass you in HR, then I also have a good shot at passing you in RBI too. If I don't pass you in HR, then it is really unlikely I'll pass you in RBI. In my mind, I'm likely to get both or neither.
My feeling is that we should have Co-Champs in the case of a tie unless both Andrew and Bill can agree to some sort of tiebreaker, b/c I don't think there is one for ESPN.
If we want to implement the tie breaker Mark described for next year, I think that is fine. But since we didn't have it agreed upon ahead of time, I don't think we should implement it now.
Unless Andrew wants to settle it with rock-paper-scissors, because I'd definitely beat him there. Good ol' rock. Nothin' beats that.
That makes sense. Paying out prize money could be slightly more complicated though if there's a tie for 1st but not for last. I guess that would just mean that Caleb and I would pay Bill and Andrew $40 each, and then one of us would owe the other $10. So no big deal.
Predictably, Bill gains a point in K's to pull even with Andrew at 62 points with 4 days to go. The Ks category could get interesting if my relievers don't pitch today b/c Friday I have three scheduled starts and could conceivably be enough to take back the point.
Kate's team continues to rake, putting up .400 in 35 AB. Andrew stays within striking distance with a .297 day in 37 at bats and is now .0013 points behind.
Will Middlebrooks singlehandedly spoils Bill's chances at gaining ground in RBI's and HRs with a 2 HR 7 RBI night in Denver. Bill slips to 3 homeruns and 10 RBI behind. Wins seem out of reach as Bill finds himself 2 behind with only 2 more likely scheduled starts.
If things continues as they are, we may very well have our first co-champions as the paths to more points are fading. I think it will come down to whether or not Andrew can overtake Kate in average. Still, four days of baseball to be played and any big offensive night from either Bill or Andrew could tip the scales.
Thursday's Money Line:
Bill +120
Andrew - 110
The other thing that really, really ended up hurting me was the change in Colon's scheduled start. While I could still potentially have his Friday start count, it isn't likely. Had I known he was starting Friday, I would have had Danny Salazar in my lineup over him. This would have netted me an almost perfect start for my situation - 5 1/3 IP, 8 K, 1 W. With those 8 Ks, I'd have only been 7 behind Andrew, and passing him there would have almost sealed my victory.
Mcdowell Tie would really be perfect.
Brutal. Chris Perez pitches 2/3 of an inning in a non-save situation, gives up 4 runs, and puts me over the innings cap by 1/3 of an inning, thus negating Colon's start tomorrow.
In another close call, Jim Johnson did pitch a full inning of relief last night against Toronto, so I am now at my cap. Otherwise, Bill would be looking at losing up to a point there with Felix, Feldman, and CJ Wilson starting today. But that useless relief pitching by Perez is what really hurts.
Andrew's best bet might be in runs, as he now sits 4 back. Kate's team not letting up in average. I don't see any categories Bill has a shot in anymore so he's looking for Andrew to lose a half point to claim the outright championship. The only categories that could happen in are R (-7) and HR (-3), but those are long shots.
Anyone who put money on Andrew at Even at the beginning of the week is now feeling pretty good.
Money Line:
Bill +400
Andrew -500
Of course, the most likely scenario is a push, but that is no fun.
Yeah, looking at things now I see a lot of somewhat likely ways that Andrew can win, but not really any likely paths for Bill to win. I wouldn't completely count Andrew out in saves, since he would only have to gain 2 on either Taylor or Kate, and he does have 3 closers. Also, Caleb or Spencer could possibly catch Bill in steals. Those 4 possibilities are in addition to Andrew's chances to gain a point in runs or in average. I'd say each is pretty unlikely on it's own, but the odds of at least 1 of those events happening are pretty good.
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