We're one month in to the season, so I thought it would be useful to take a look at how the trades have broken down so far.
Granted, we are only a month in, so a lot can change still. I've included salaries for preseason trades, because I think that is important as it frees up other money for the draft, but not for the in season trades.
Preseason
Bill trades Ian Kinsler ($22), Josh Reddick ($10), and Jake Peavy ($6) to Kate for Edwin Encarnacion ($9)
Overall, this trade looks like a win/win. Kate gets the edge in production, as Ian Kinsler has been the best player in the deal via the Player Rater (#9 hitter, #2 2B) and Peavy was excellent for her (3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24 K, 18 IP) before being traded to Taylor in exchange for Jered Weaver. Josh Reddick was not kept, so I'm going to leave him out of the analysis. Edwin Encarnacion has been a beast lately, though, hitting five home runs in the last week to push his season total to nine. His low batting average thus far has depressed his player rater value a bit, but that appears to be related to batting average on balls in play, which is abnormally low (.195). Kate wins overall production and depth, but I got fairly similar production for less salary.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push (win/win)
Caleb trades Mark Trumbo ($4) and Manny Machado ($10) to Luke for David Price ($25)
Worried about Trumbo's terrible second half, Caleb shipped the cheap power hitting outfielder and rookie phenom Machado to Luke for David Price. With Felix Hernandez going for $33 in the draft, Caleb probably got $5 worth of preseason value out of this deal, along with cost certainty for his #1 pitcher. Unfortunately, Price has not pitched well so far (#48 SP, 5.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but he is maintaining strikeout and walk rates similar to last year, so most of his poor performance stems from lots of home runs (18% of fly balls, compared to a typical average of 10%) and a high average on balls in play (.343, career worst by .060). He'll come around, but for the time being the results have been rough. Trumbo, on the other hand, has started off hot, hitting .300 with six home runs, despite the general malaise in the Angels lineup surrounding him. He comes in at the #20 overall hitter, and has nice positional flexibility (1B and OF) to boot. Whether he can avoid his second half collapse remains another question, as he had a similar line before the All Star Break in 2012 (.306/.358/.608) before becoming a generally terrible hitter after the break (.227/.271/.359). I don't think Price will continue to pitch poorly, nor do I think that Trumbo will continue to hit .300, but with a month of excellent production in hand for Trumbo and poor production from Price, coupled with the salary difference, I think the winner is clear.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Luke
Luke trades Manny Machado ($10) and Fernando Rodney ($10) to Mark for Leonys Martin ($1)
Hope Manny Machado never unpacked his virtual suitcases. Shortly after being traded to Luke's team, Luke shipped him out, along with Tampa closer Fernando Rodney in exchange for Leonys Martin. Machado wasn't kept, so I've left him out of this analysis, but he's looking like the best player in the deal. Rodney has apparently lost whatever it was that led him to the best relief season in recent memory. Rodney had excellent control in 2012 (1.81 BB/9 IP),and pretty poor control for the rest of his career (4.47 BB/9 IP). It appears he's turned back into a pumpkin, having walked seven batters in only 8 1/3 innings so far this season, leading to a bloated 4.32 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. He still has the closer job, though, and as long as he can hang on, he'll be in Mark's lineup. There was a lot of hype surrounding Martin in the preseason, that he would take the Texas center field job outright and could be a candidate for 30 stolen bases. All the while the Rangers said that he'd splitting time in center field with Craig Gentry and his anemic bat, but excellent speed and defense. Well, the Rangers stuck to their word, although Martin helped out by only hitting .245/.302/.347 with one homer and no stolen bases. Although Rodney has been a disappointment, he's still on the roster and still getting saves.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark (lose/lose aspects, though)
Andrew trades Alcides Escobar ($2) and Doug Fister ($4) to Taylor for Alex Gordon ($6)
In this deal, Taylor gave up a sub-$10, top 10 or 15 outfielder for two cheap, value keepers. Thus far, everyone has lived up to or exceeded expectations. Gordon currently sits at #7 on the player rater, with contributions across the board: .321 average, 19 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 3 SB. Not bad for a $6 player. Doug Fister has a 2.38 ERA, a WHIP just over 1.00, and a pristine 4-0 record. Not too shabby for a $4 pitcher. And finally we get to the player who is looking like the gem of the deal, Alcides Escobar. Escobar was a solid starter last year, hitting .293 with 35 SB and not offering much else. This year Escobar has been an across the board contributor and is above average in every single stat, with a very impressive .291 average, 13 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 6 SB. The power probably won't continue, as Escobar has averaged just over 4 HR per year over the past three seasons, but he is still only 26 and could be developing into a 10+ HR hitter. Gordon and Escobar are right next to each other in the player rater currently (5.79 for Gordon, 5.78 for Escobar), and while Gordon is a lot more likely to be able to keep up his offensive production, Taylor also added a very good, every week starter in the deal.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
March and April
Bill trades Jim Johnson to Mark for Tom Wilhelmsen
Looking for more strikeouts, and foolishly believing that Rondon would eventually end up with the closer job in Detroit, I traded away rock solid, but strikeout impaired, closer to Mark for the flame throwing Seattle closer, Tom Wilhelmsen. Since the deal, up has been down, left has been right, and Jim Johnson has been striking out a batter per inning. That, coupled with a nice run of saves and a win in relief has made Johnson the #1 closer. Wilhelmsen has pitched extremely well (0.69 ERA, 0.62 WHIP), but his strikeout rate has been a bit pedestrian, at least by the lofty standards he set last year. I doubt Johnson will continue to out-K Wilhelmsen, but stranger things have happened.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark
Caleb trades Mike Napoli to Taylor for Ryan Doumit and Lorenzo Cain
Who would you rather have:
Player A: 16 R, 6 HR, 31 RBI, .287 avg, 0 SB
Player B: 20 R, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .265 avg, 3 SB
It might come down to your team's statistical needs, but most players would pick player A. As Sox fans, you've probably all successfully identified Mike Napoli's spectacular early season line. Player B is actually Doumit and Cain combined, or as I like to call him, Ryenzo Doumain. To have one player outproduce two means that no matter how shitty that outfielder Taylor is running out in Cain's place, he's coming out ahead. Cain has actually been pulling his weight, with the lone home run, all three stolen bases, most of the runs and RBI, while hitting over .300. He is looking like a potential keeper, one month in. Unfortunately for Caleb, so is Napoli. Napoli is on pace to put up similar numbers to his spectacular 2011, when he hit 30 HR despite missing 50 games.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Caleb trades Josh Reddick and Lonnie Chisenhall for Josh Willingham and Al Alburquerque
Andrew had too many relief pitchers following the draft, needed an injury fill in for Brett Lawrie, and coveted Josh Reddick. Caleb was gambling on saves with the Detroit closer situation unsettled, and had no use for Chisenhall. Within the month, both Chisenhall and Alburquerque were cut, essentially leaving this deal as Reddick for Willingham. Willingham has been his usual self - mediocre average, good pop (4 HR), and limited runs and RBI (compared to his power) due to his terrible speed and a poor lineup surrounding him. He's on pace for his usual 30 HR season. Reddick, on the other hand, has been a giant mess. Although he isn't striking out any more, and is in fact walking more, he's also hitting a ton more groundballs, which severely limits his power upside. He's hitting a meager .148 on the season, which is partly BABIP driven, but is still worrisome. The lone bright spot has been his stolen base totals; with five already, he's on pace to top 25, blowing past the 11 he had last year. Unfortuntately, Andrew already has a comfortable lead in stolen bases.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Caleb
Kate trades Jake Peavy to Taylor for Jered Weaver
Prior to this trade, Jake Peavy had been pitching spectacularly well (24 K: 1 BB in 18 IP) and Weaver had some massive red flags, including a big drop in velocity, poor control, and a poor strikeout rate, albeit in only two starts. And he also had a broken left (non-throwing) elbow that would sideline him for a month or two. Since the deal Peavy has continued to pitch well (2.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 K). Kate is banking on Jered Weaver returning immediately to his sub-3.00 ERA form, but even last year the Ks were way down (6.77 K/9 IP). Even if Weaver returns to form, a month or two of replacement level pitching plus the remainder of Weaver's season probably won't top Peavy.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Andrew trades Stephen Drew to Kate for Andy Dirks
A minor, need based deal. Kate needed a shortstop, with Reyes hurting his ankle, and Andrew has coveted Dirks since the draft. Dirks went ahead and got hurt immediately, so he hasn't played at all for Andrew and Stephen Drew has allowed Kate to bench the scuffling Maicer Izturis. Not too much to see here.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
Caleb trades Junichi Tazawa to Taylor for Kelvin Herrera
The most recent trade is a funny little deal. You don't see too many deals where a non-closer RP gets swapped for a non-closer RP, especially when one was just picked up. At the time of the deal, I liked it better for Taylor - Hanrahan was hurt, Bailey was the interim closer and was shaky in his first few appearances. Since then Bailey has locked down the role and Hanrahan has returned from his tweaked hamstring. Herrera has put up some spectacular strike out numbers (19 in 12 IP), but he's also been oddly hittable for a guy touching triple digits (5+ ERA). Herrera probably has more upside going forward, but Tazawa is someone you can always plug into your lineup and feel OK about. Both are probably cuttable should Taylor or Caleb need an injury replacement.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
The final preposterously early verdict? Don't trade with Taylor!
16 comments:
Good analysis. I think I agree with each evaluation.
Ron Washington was a bit more cryptic during preseason about Martin and Gentry than what you imply. Particularly very early in camp, before the *preposterously early* keeper deadline we had this year. What has changed since then is that Martin has been being benched somewhat regularly even against righties. If it was a pure righty/lefty split, Martin would get enough PT to be worth a roster spot, but unfortunately for me it ended up being more of a 50/50 split. Also, both he and Hicks were really meant to be guys to stash on my bench while hoping for a breakout, but then a bunch of injuries forced me to either start them or drop them.
I'd definitely rather have a $10 Rodney or Machado at this point, for sure. Especially after leaving those damn $12 on the table.
Hard to disagree with anything here. Cain has been great but every time Napoli knocks someone else in I cringe a bit. Doumit could probably be dropped at this point, but I refuse.
Not sure what you mean, Bill, by me not having Herrera pitch an inning yet. He gave me three not terrible innings last week. I thought maybe you typoed and meant Taylor, but he's had 3.2 pretty lousy innings from Tazawa, who's been hit pretty hard recently as well. Both are definitely droppable, though I'm gonna hold on to Herrera for a while as he's closer to save opportunities than most other middle relievers.
By the way, I could have had Andrew Bailey in the Willingham/Reddick trade instead of Albuquerque. I chose Al Al. Woof.
I think maybe Bill was confused about which of us got Tazawa and which got Herrera.
Thanks for the very entertaining writeup. I'm sure I'll be re-reading it fondly in a month or two when Napoli and Peavy are sitting in my DL spots.
Whoops. Got that turned around half way through the write up. I've edited it to reflect that. Yeah, Herrera hasn't been bad for you (4 K in 3 IP isn't too shabby), but poor Taylor got bad innings out of both Herrera and Tazawa.
But yeah, Caleb, I thought about adding the opportunity to add Bailey in instead of Alburquerque, but it didn't seem fair to ding you for something that maybe could have happened.
As for Martin, I don't think it was a bad gamble. He would have been a $5 player in the draft, so at $1, it is hard to go wrong. And remember, if you have a problem with our keeper deadline, blame Andrew's fecundity.
Damn fecundity. Always getting in the way of everything.
Drafting Martin for $5 might actually have been smarter. He might've been a good 2014 keeper.
For young players, that opportunity cost regarding keeping them for a single year vs drafting them, even if it is for more money, and having that flexibility is something I wrestle with every year. Sometimes it really, really doesn't work out, such as Travis Snider.
It would be nice to have Machado, 2nd overall for 3B, especially considering I'm starting Trevor Plouffe, who just sucks. In that context, Kendrys looks like an especially terrible keeper.
I could have had Machado for $10 instead of Middlebrooks for $10...
Keeping someone like Machado on a one year deal is tough, though. You end up with very little upside, and no future value. Honestly, sometimes if there's someone you really like, it might be worth tossing them back and spending a few more dollars on them in the draft just to have the opportunity to keep them.
Taylor is definitely winning the Fister/Escobar for Gordon deal. Escobar has as many homeruns as Gordon, plus 6 stolen bases. And that's not even thinking about Fister.
Love these articles.
Well, here comes a potential Peavy DL stint, just as Taylor predicted.
And now Tazawa is a closer. I give up entirely.
DON'T TRADE WITH TAYLOR.
Seriously. Don't. He's a menace.
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