All right, here are my predictions. Just like Luke's, these are all unlikely to happen, but are conceivable.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. You might not have noticed, but Nova took major steps forward last year, upping his strike out rate in a big way. This matches up with an increased swinging strike rate, so it is likely sustainable. Unfortunately, it also happened to be a year where his ERA increased by 1.30, ballooning over 5. Nova will hang on to his strikeout gains, bump his GB % back up, and his gradually increased workload will let him get to 200 innings for the first time in his career. An ERA of 3.75, WHIP of 1.27, and 170 Ks are well within reach. On principle, I refuse to project wins.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. I was absolutely shocked to get Reynolds for $1 in the draft, given he went for $14 two years ago and performed well enough to be kept the following year. 2012 was a down year for Reynolds, but now that he is over nagging injuries and can DH full time, he'll rediscover his power stroke and hit 30 home runs, to go along with a .240 average.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. Pujols has been declining for several years, and while Fielder is rock solid, he doesn't run. EE should be able to stay in front of one of them, especially with a much deeper Toronto lineup around him this year, with the return of Bautista and the addition of Jose Reyes.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher, finally making good on his potential in the last year of his contract. Santana scuffled badly in the first half, dealing with injuries and hitting a meager five home runs. Post All Star Break, Santana was dominant, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and more walks than strike outs. In 2013 he builds off his second half success and hits 25 home runs and a .270 average, while in the neighborhood of 90 runs and 90 RBI.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Rondon was a mess to begin spring training, but since his mechanics were tweaked in a bullpen session he's been lights out: 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1 ER. His WHIP might not be doing me any favors, Guys who can throw over 100 mph are hard to come by and even harder to hit. There are other interesting arms in that bullpen, but both Coke and Dotel have huge splits, Benoit can't pitch on back to back days, and Al Albuquerque can't stay healthy. Finally, Jim Leyland has shown that he can tolerate a closer who will walk a guy from time to time, as shown by Jose Valverde's three year stint as closer.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb takes advantage of Matt Moore still failing to put it all together and Jeremy Hellickson finally regressing to the mean to become the #2 starter on the Rays. There is no doubt I overpaid for Cobb, but his spring has been excellent, both in terms of numbers and scouting reports.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn.
Torii Hunter hangs on to his counting stats and his batting average regression is small enough that he remains a top 15 outfielder.
5 comments:
I think Cobb may be the most likely thing on that list to actually happen. I've watched a couple of his ST games and he looks really solid. I wanted him pretty badly in the draft (I think it was me who drove the price up for you, and I kinda wish I'd kept bidding).
I think the boldest one is the prediction for Santana. 30 batting average points is a lot, so if both V-Mart and Mauer bat their usual .300+ then they'll be pretty tough to beat, even if Santana hits .270. Meanwhile there's lots of other high upside catchers in the mix, like Wieters, Napoli, and Perez. I would've been satisfied to see you boldly predict Santana to finish top 2, but I applaud your guts in going for the Big Kahuna.
I had forgotten about Victor Martinez. Given the lineup around him, it might be difficult to beat V-Mart playing absolutely everyday as a DH, but we'll see how his knee holds up. What could set Santana apart from Mauer is at bats and power, but you're right, beating both Mauer and Martinez will be pretty tricky. If Santana hits .270 with 25 HR, I'll be happy no matter where he finishes on the player rater. What really sold me on the prediction was that his K rate was 13% in the second half.
Everybody forgot about V-Mart! (except me and Kate, of course)
Off to a good start! Rondon was officially sent down to AAA today!
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