Okay, I can't stand waiting for baseball to start. In the meantime, I want to generate some conversation. I liked the "Bold Prediction" articles that Fangraphs did last year, so I figured I'd do five such bold predictions myself, each about a player on my fantasy team.
Remember, these are supposed to be "bold predictions," not things that I realistically expect to happen. I'll have done pretty well if 1 out of 5 comes true, and practically be a psychic if I get 2 right. Basically, these are the 5 scenarios that I see as unlikely but possible, and that come true in my dreams and give me my first Durham Plays for Keeps fantasy title.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Originally I was only going to say that Aybar beats Andrus on player rater, but after actually looking up their scores the last few years I realized that they were quite close together, so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. Aybar finished 5th last year, without Reyes in the AL, so to make 2nd he'll need to pass Andrus, Zobrist, Escobar, and Jeter. This prediction is entirely based on the hope that Aybar gets to hit 2nd in the Angels lineup. That's an amazing spot to hit, after Trout and before Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo. Personally, I'd put Callaspo and his better OBP in that spot, but I'm not Mike Scioscia. If Aybar spends most of the season in the 2 hole, he could easily set career highs in runs (90+) and RBIs (70+). Combine that with his decent batting average, 25-30 steals, and 10+ home runs thanks to an increase in plate appearances, and you've got the #2 shortstop in the AL.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. This would be nothing more than Perez maintaining his 2012 pace over a full season spent hitting #5 behind Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Perez turns 23 this year and has spent the last 2 years tearing up AAA and the majors as long as he's been healthy. I really like the Royals lineup this year and I think Perez will get a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. He did this last year, so what makes this a bold prediction? Well, Dickey is 38, has 1 successful season under his belt, throws a knuckleball, is missing a ligament, and is moving from the NL to the scary AL East. Also, 20 wins is just generally quite rare. There are usually only 1 or 2 20-game winners in the AL each year. However, he's pitching on the team with what I think will be the best offense in the AL East this year. The other AL East lineups, with the exception of Baltimore, aren't as scary as they used to be. Dickey rocked an awesome 3.18 SIERA last year, good for 4th among pitchers in the AL in 2013. He also did very well in 2 important categories for predicting a pitcher's allowed BABIP: infield fly rate and z-contact%. In the latter, he was tied with Verlander for the best mark in the majors at 79%.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. Counting the playoffs, Ichiro hit 6 home runs in 152 plate apperances in Yankee Stadium last year. All of these home runs were pulled to the right field short porch. Ichiro has said in the past that he could be home run hitter if he wanted, which is probably just crazy talk, but hey, that's why this is a bold prediction, right? Injuries in the Yankees' lineup put Ichiro hitting near the top of the order most of the season, so he gets his usual 700+ PAs. I think he is tempted by the short porch in right and modifies his approach to try and pull the ball a bit more.
5) Mike Trout. I couldn't have written this post without including a bold prediction for Mike Trout, right? So here it is. Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. That's bold enough for a guy coming off probably the most ridiculously good fantasy season we've seen, right? I was tempted to say 3 out of 5, but considering that he realistically has almost no chance of matching his .326 average last season, getting 2 out of the 4 counting stats would be pretty outstanding. I think the most likely 2 categories are runs (129) and RBIs (83), because that lineup he'll be hitting in is just ridiculous.
BONUS patently-obvious-anybody-who-disagrees-is-a-fool-duh-how-can-you-not-see-that-this-is-almost-definitely-going-to-happen projection:
Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Look familiar?
Bold enough? Too bold? What are your bold predictions for your own team?
11 comments:
Ha, I'll take the under on every one of those Hicks stats. I'll think about mine- I do have a couple, and hopefully put them up soon.
I like this, I'll put one together tomorrow.
As for Hicks, my bold prediction is that he's in AAA by June 15.
I shun you non-believers.
I was tempted to say Dickey leads the AL in wins, but then I heard about some guy out in Detroit named Highlander or something like that. I guess he's pretty good.
I think Caleb's will be a lot closer to true... Hick's MLE's are pretty terrible, good spring or no. (And in a similar vein, that is why Jackie Bradley Jr. should not be on the major league roster on opening day, either)
The Hicks line was definitely a joke. I don't have a bold prediction for Hicks because, in truth I don't have a damn clue what he's going to do besides at least start the season hitting leadoff for the Twins. The main reason I like him is really just that, of all the high-upside prospects we drafted this year, he's the one who is most likely to play regularly in the majors.
I'd bet that Wil Myers gets more MLB at bats than Hicks this year.
Are you two doing the Trout Wager or what? Cause I reallllllly want to see the blog post at the end of the year, regardless of which one is writing it.
Wow, I think that's an easy bet, although I'd rather it be on PAs than ABs, since Hicks consistently got a lot of walks in the minors. The Rays have a lot of depth and I think will be strongly influenced by the arbitration clock. The Twins have already said the arbitration clock won't factor into their decision. Hicks gets a lot of walks, too, so even if he does struggle and only hits .240, he still ought to manage an average OBP. A few homeruns, plenty of steals, and good defense will keep him in the majors. Mastroianni isn't really a great backup option, either. Myers is better, no doubt, and I do think that he will mash the ball when he finally does get called up in June. But I've got to give the playing time edge to the guy starting the season hitting leadoff over the guy who will get called up in June and bat 6th or 7th.
And yes, I'm definitely down for "The Trout Wager" if Bill is.
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