One of the advantages of dropping $129 on three hitters is that you end up with a lot of uncertainty on your bench (and in your starting lineup!), which gives you something to dream on. Here are my “Oh god, these better come true” predictions for 2013.
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting.
The AL East is no longer quite so scary, and with Lester reunited with John Farrell, I'm hoping for a 9K/9, 3.3BB/9 sort of season from Lester, which is about what he did in 2010. His spring numbers have been quite good, including 6 no hit innings (with 10 Ks!) against the Yankees, further contributing to my irrational exuberance.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater.
I love his stuff, which is greatly improved since the move to the bullpen, and while Perkins is a lefty, he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Saves could be a bit of an issue, since that seems to be what really drives the top RPs, but I think Perkins can pick up enough to be in the top 3.
3)Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B (looking at the player card, which pulls out guys like Mauer and V-Mart, since they play more demanding positions).
This one is a big reach. Smoak's numbers last September and in Spring Training are outstanding, but the scouting report remains mixed. I believe Keith Law called him "slow" and "not the same player he was at South Carolina." That said, he's been driving the ball well, and if he can get the batting average up, it seems doable. I'm also counting on a revamped Seattle lineup, with no more Miguel Olivo and his 0.239 OBP (Ed note: this is not a misprint) (Note 2: This was only 50 points lower than Smoak's OBP. (Note 3: Uh oh.) as well as the slightly cozier park to boost Smoak's RBI and R opportunities.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB
The SB portion of this could make it hard to attain, but I think Gordon is going to really bounce back power wise. He managed to hit 51 doubles, so it's not like he was powerless, and his batted ball distance remained robust. I'm hoping for a 25-15 season.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater
It’s not exactly an overwhelming feat, given the state of the rest of the Orioles’ rotation, but given Arrieta’s ugly 6.20 ERA last season, I’m going to call this bold. He was once a top pitching prospect, and has improved his K/BB in the last three seasons. That K/9 is almost certainly coming down, but I could see Arrieta finishing the year with an ERA in the high threes and around 150 strikeouts. Think of him as a bargain bin Doug Fister.
21 comments:
You have a typo. You wrote "bargain bin Doug Fister" when you should have written "garbage bin Doug Fister."
Woof. #5 is so ambitious it made my butt pucker.
I'm a little surprised people are giving me shit about pitching, which is so volatile anyway, and not the Smoak prediction. I think the Arrieta prediction hinges onthe fact that Baltimore's rotation has a lot of question marks. By Fangraphs WAR (which is a rather silly way of looking at past performance, since it's based on xFIP, but seems reasonable in this case since we're mainly concerned with future value) Arrieta was actually the 3rd most valuable pitcher on the Orioles. It's conceivable that Arrieta finishes as the best pitcher of the bunch, even if its not a particularly good season.
And Bill, how about we split the difference and call Arrieta a "free on Craigslist" version of Doug Fister?
Fair enough. Is he a couch that a badly behaved cat has been pissing on for the last five years or a solid piece of furniture you'll use until you can afford real furniture? Only time will tell!
Yeah you're probably right about the Smoak prediction being less likely. Being the top starter for Baltimore probably isn't asking too much.
I think the Smoak prediction is by far the boldest one yet.
As for Arrieta, do we even know for sure that he'll make the rotation?
If there's one thing that can be said for Smoak, he's got smarts! Listen to his brilliant analysis on the effect of moving in the fences at Safeco:
"We play here 81 tmies, other teams come in for - what - eight games, maybe? It's more an advantage for us than for the other team."
How about this...Albert Pujols ends up being worth $48?
Ha! I figured when I drafted him he wouldn't be worth $48. That said, at least by Last Player Picked, Cabrera has been worth ~$50 each of the past three seasons, and that's without inflation.
Did someone say Lonnie Chisenhall?
Oh I've got no problem with $52 for Cabrera. It surprised me that he went that high, but I do think he'll earn it.
Despite being a believer in Pujols bouncing back this year, I don't understand the logic in paying full price for him. We all know he's capable of earning $48, but there is basically zero chance of earning a profit on that price, and there is plenty of a chance that he is just in decline and will never be worth $40+ again. I love getting usually consistent players at a discount coming off a bad year, but when they start to get bid up to the price of their previous successful seasons I'd rather let someone else take the risk. I see paying $48 for Pujols as similar to paying $25 for Lester.
Also, does it make sense to pay extra for reliability? Shouldn't we just be paying 100% for reliable players, and less than 100% for risky players?
1. It is important to remember that with 20% inflation, really Andrew is saying that he's expecting Pujols to earn $40. If you fail to account for inflation then no one should really be a bargain.
2. Going stars and scrubs is a strategy choice. He's basically going forward hoping that he can get what the $1-$10 players provide on waivers. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. I think his strategy will be most tested in saves.
Well, if you account for inflation, bargains should be a lot rarer, though not impossible to find. I had Konerko, for example, going for less than his non-inflation adjusted price. That said, Bill's point remains- I'm really expecting Pujols to generate about $40 of value.
As far as factoring in relaible vs unreliable players, that's something you have to do after generating dollar values (if you are doing so based on projections). Your dollar values from the projections are assuming the projection will be correct, for both the individual player as well as the player pool (player pool matters too- if, for example, home runs went down on the whole, but Miguel Cabrera matched his projections, those HR are more valuable than you originally projected). So, when making your own dollar values, you need to make sure you are thinking about the projections, and which way they are likely (or likelier, really) to fail.
Finally, one note about Lester- he was $18, not $25, which makes a big difference. It's a little more than I would have liked, but his upside is a top 5 SP.
Just to clarify, I know Lester was $18. My point was that paying $48 for Pujols is similar to (hypothetically) paying $25 for Lester. Lester's upside is definitely worth $25, but he should go for less than that (as he did) because he is coming off a bad year and we don't know what to expect from him right now.
Good points from both of you though. I'll have more to say later.
I think you're either misunderstanding inflation or you're overvalue Lester, because the comparison doesn't really make sense.
Pujols is one year removed from being worth what Andrew paid him (while hypothetical Lester was two), has several years where he was worth considerably more what Andrew paid, and also his worst season is much better than the hypothetical $25 Lester.
Pujols had a crappy year last year. He was worth $28, per Last Player Picked ($34 post inflation, if you want to translate that into bids for this year). Jon Lester was worth less than $0 last year; he was worth less than -$15 last year, but that's as low as they go.
If you're looking purely at the recent performance to salary, Andrew is actually expecting Lester to improve MORE than Pujols (at least a $30 difference for Lester, $12 for Pujols).
And finally, for what it is worth, LPP has Lester not ever being a top 5 SP, thanks to a lighter workload (tops out at 208 IP) and a WHIP that lagged behind his other numbers.
And most importantly, I think that Andrew now needs to change his team name to the Hypothical Lesters.
That's fair. I guess I am willing to admit that Jon Lester is not very similar to Albert Pujols!
The thing is that there really are no good comparisons for Pujols. I was trying to find a player who had a reliable track record pre-2012, but had a down year in 2012. However, there aren't many guys who have reliable $40 track records, period. Nor are there many guys for whom a $28 season is a "down year."
I was going to try Adam Dunn after 2011 as a comparison, but he is also very different. Although he was probably reliably a $25 dollar player for many seasons, pre-2011, his 2011 was one of the worst seasons by any hitter ever. Probably worth -$15 or so.
Dunn was worth -$13 in 2011. I think it is much easier for pitchers to be horrifyingly terrible than hitters because of two rate stats, plus one 200 IP starter at 5.00 ERA means you're going to lose ERA.
As far as comparables, the only one I can think of is A-Rod. He was a $30 player for the first couple years of our league and went for $36 and $27 in the draft, when we were first figuring out auctions.
In 2011 he was worth $10 because of injuries, and went for $21. I don't know the inflation figures off the top of my head, but they were a lot lower in previous years, so that is only banking on a $10 bounce back. Of course, A-Rod was hurt for many games, unlike Pujols.
But yeah, really, when it comes down to it, there aren't any $40+ players besides Cabrera and Pujols. I'm sure Andrew is hoping that were not using the same talking points about Cabrera next March.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/mike-petriellos-10-bold-predictions-for-2013/
Note prediction #3!
And #5 too!
Who is this Mike Petriello fellow? Perhaps just a pen name for one Andrew McDowell?
Amazing! Clearly I must be on to something!
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