I don't have time to back these up with numbers, but here are my five bold predictions. Like Luke, I really enjoyed the FanGraphs series last season. Some of these predictions may not be all that bold, but we'll see:
1) I drafted one guy I thought was a sure-thing closer (Janssen) and one guy who I thought might pick up some saves in April and then be a decent middle reliever (Frieri). My bold prediction is that Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead.
10 comments:
Frieri is someone who has absolutely gotten more valuable since the draft, thanks to Madson's injuries. It's hard to believe that a reliever who was just short of 100 Ks and was projected to be closer for at least the beginning of April went as cheaply as he did.
Agreed- I loved him, but managed to paint myself into a corner, $ wise. Even if he doesn't save a ton of games, those Ks are super sweet in your 2nd pitcher slot.
These are definitely the most fun of the bold predictions so far.
BTW, only 9 AL pitchers received Cy Young votes last year. So, finishing top 10 basically means receiving a vote.
And it is an awfully impressive list, at least SP wise. The only pitcher on that list from 2012 who is comparable to Hammel, Parker, or Milone is Matt Harrison. Everyone else strikes out a ton of guys and the later places seem to be reserved for relievers.
Ok top 10 in cy young may have been ambitious. Top 10 in player rater? WAR? I'm not sure. I started out just predicting tommy moline in the top 10 but figured that wasn't bold enough.
I'd also like to add to the Hardy prediction that He beats out Aybar in player rater.
Since Milone finished 22nd last year, I think top 10 is pretty ambitious. He'd need to leap frog a lot of very interesting arms.
Well, it SHOULD be ambitious. Any one of them alone would be ambitious, all three of them is just insane. With a little more time to look at it now, I think I'll use player raters rankings. Parker was 16th last year, Milone was 20th, and Hammel was 31st. Predicting them all to be top 10 is insane, but saying they'll all be top 20 isn't ambitious enough. So, all three will finish in the top 15 on player rater (and yes, so will Price). It'll help that Verlander's arm will finally fall off this year, Weaver will regress substantially, and Dickey won't like the AL East very much (sorry Luke).
Yeah, I am oh so nervous about Dickey pitching to Jose Iglesias, Eduardo Nunez, and Dan Johnson!
You forgot Will Middlebrooks.
Ha. Note to R. A. Dickey: Don't throw your 83 MPH fastball to Will Middlebrooks!
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