Sunday, September 29, 2013
Congrats to Andrew
Well deserved title after many years of chasing it. Turns out twins and no sleep is the key?
Monday, September 23, 2013
One week left!
Hey, remember baseball? It's still happening!
In the McDowell division, Andrew and Bill are neck and neck for first. Nice of Bill to make some bold moves in August and give us a race, or this season would have been really boring. They're close in saves, which may alone determine the winner, but Bill is also close to a number of other teams in multiple categories - if he can come out on top in the majority of them, he may be able to cobble together the points he needs to pass Andrew permanently.
In the Murphy division, Luke and I are fighting to stay out of the Shame category in the Hall of Champions. It would be Luke's first appearance in the Hall of Champions of any kind (believe it or not, he's never finished last before!). Our teams are hilariously ugly aggregates of sucky young guys, sucky old guys, and guys who we hope will make it all worthwhile next year. Winner saves $20.
In the non-Murphy non-McDowell division, Mark and Kate are close for 3rd and Taylor and Spencer are each trying for 5th. Not much chance of movement outside of those races at this point, I'm afraid. $20 on the line in both races. Kate's chances took a bit of a hit with Machado's ugly injury today (shortly after rosters locked for the week, naturally), and she may have lost a little keeper value as well.
And in non-fantasy baseball, the Sox have locked up the AL East and are considered among the favorites in the playoffs. Pretty amazing after the last 2-3 seasons, and a hell of a lot of fun.
In the McDowell division, Andrew and Bill are neck and neck for first. Nice of Bill to make some bold moves in August and give us a race, or this season would have been really boring. They're close in saves, which may alone determine the winner, but Bill is also close to a number of other teams in multiple categories - if he can come out on top in the majority of them, he may be able to cobble together the points he needs to pass Andrew permanently.
In the Murphy division, Luke and I are fighting to stay out of the Shame category in the Hall of Champions. It would be Luke's first appearance in the Hall of Champions of any kind (believe it or not, he's never finished last before!). Our teams are hilariously ugly aggregates of sucky young guys, sucky old guys, and guys who we hope will make it all worthwhile next year. Winner saves $20.
In the non-Murphy non-McDowell division, Mark and Kate are close for 3rd and Taylor and Spencer are each trying for 5th. Not much chance of movement outside of those races at this point, I'm afraid. $20 on the line in both races. Kate's chances took a bit of a hit with Machado's ugly injury today (shortly after rosters locked for the week, naturally), and she may have lost a little keeper value as well.
And in non-fantasy baseball, the Sox have locked up the AL East and are considered among the favorites in the playoffs. Pretty amazing after the last 2-3 seasons, and a hell of a lot of fun.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
One last trade?
In looking to acquire one last keeper before the deadline this week. Open to ideas, but I'll probably approach a few of you later today.
I've got Altuve, a resurgent Verlander, a not-traded-to-the-NL Rios, a healthy Willingham, both Angels closers, Danny Salazar, and some mediocre OF and INF options to offer.
Monday, August 5, 2013
Fuuuuccccckkkkkk
Ouch. One rival adds David Price, JJ Hardy, and Joe Mauer while another adds Pedroia, EE, Jennings, Alexei, plus THREE starting pitchers.
Kate, if you're about to add Longoria, Cespedes, Victorino, Reed, and Peavy, just let me know so I can focus on football.
Kate, if you're about to add Longoria, Cespedes, Victorino, Reed, and Peavy, just let me know so I can focus on football.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Need a shortstop or steals?
Now that Alexei Ramirez has survived the trade deadline, I've got 3 shortstops and I'm looking to trade 1 or 2 of them. I would probably most like to hold on to Jeter. Ramirez and Villar are on the block, though. I'm looking for runs, HRs, and RBIs mostly, but also could go for a pitcher to help me in Ws, Ks, or SVs.
Villar stole 70 bases and hit 19 HRs in 177 games during the last 2 seasons at AA and AAA. He's been handed the leadoff hitter job the rest of the way for the Astros and so far has been running like crazy. Could be the Rajai Davis of shortstops! Oh, and the other night he did this.
Villar stole 70 bases and hit 19 HRs in 177 games during the last 2 seasons at AA and AAA. He's been handed the leadoff hitter job the rest of the way for the Astros and so far has been running like crazy. Could be the Rajai Davis of shortstops! Oh, and the other night he did this.
Monday, July 29, 2013
An astounding fact
Before tonight's games, James Loney was the #1 ranked 1B-only eligible player on Player Rater. Ranked 3rd overall, barely above Fielder and Trumbo, and behind Davis and Encarnacion. Nobody ever would've come close to making that bold prediction before the season!
Friday, July 26, 2013
Mariano Rivera
I'd like to trade him next week for hitting/pitching that can help me this year, but provides me more keeper value than a retiring player. Any interest?
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Well, this is going to be interesting...
Can a team dump trade its way from 6th to 1st? I don't know, but I hope so! If nothing else, watching the Red Sox ought to be more fun with both Lasershow and Papi on my team.
If I'm not at least in 4th within a couple weeks though I'm probably punting. Got quite a few good, cheap hitters that should be easy to fit under a salary cap and can help out a contender, and right now my keeper situation is looking pretty ugly besides Trout.
If I'm not at least in 4th within a couple weeks though I'm probably punting. Got quite a few good, cheap hitters that should be easy to fit under a salary cap and can help out a contender, and right now my keeper situation is looking pretty ugly besides Trout.
Friday, July 12, 2013
It's time...
My team crept briefly out of 8th and made it up to 4th before plummeting back, and we've been stuck solidly in 8th for the last 1-2 weeks. I'm having trouble imagining this team competing for 1st this season, so I think it's time I consider moving some guys. Fielder, Mauer, Price, Rios, Jennings, Milone, Altuve, Janssen, and Frieri are available and could potentially really help a contender, and there're a bunch of smaller names too.
I'm looking to add 2 keepers, preferably hitters but not necessarily. I don't really want to do a massive dump trade as I do want to compete for the non-money spots going forward, but I can definitely improve your team. Also, I dumped a ton of salary early on in the season, intending to have room to add some guys at the end. As it is, I'm close to the salary floor and will probably need to take on some salary dead weight in most trades. Figuring out the right combinations of players may be tricky, but I'm a motivated seller...
I'm looking to add 2 keepers, preferably hitters but not necessarily. I don't really want to do a massive dump trade as I do want to compete for the non-money spots going forward, but I can definitely improve your team. Also, I dumped a ton of salary early on in the season, intending to have room to add some guys at the end. As it is, I'm close to the salary floor and will probably need to take on some salary dead weight in most trades. Figuring out the right combinations of players may be tricky, but I'm a motivated seller...
Rotation anyone?
With Darvish going down with an injury, my entire starting rotation is now injured (Darvish, Buccholz, Morrow, Anderson, Ogando). Welcome the bigs Miguel Gonzalez and Ivan Nova.
Sunday, July 7, 2013
Caught red-handed!
I had a dream last night that I noticed Yasiel Puig in Luke's starting lineup. Upon closer inspection, his roster was peppered with some of the best talent in the National League. I got all ready to righteously report him to the authorities, and then I think the dream turned into something involving animals coming out of the ground at night (I remember foxes and a badger, and viewing them through night vision goggles).
Clearly my subconscious can't handle being in last place.
Clearly my subconscious can't handle being in last place.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
The horror, the horror
I think Wade Davis may just have made the very worst start for anyone all year. He managed to put up a WHIP of 10 and an ERA of 54. That's six walks, four hits, six runs in an inning plus. And that is with a reliever coming in and bailing him out with the bases loaded and no one out. Will Smith managed to get a sac fly and a double play, so it could have been worse! Assuming I hit the innings cap exactly, he added 0.008 to my final WHIP and 0.043 to my ERA. Amazing. Does anyone else have a terrible start that they would like to share?
Friday, June 28, 2013
The bold predictions, halfway in.
Luke:
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Aybar is currently #10, Reyes isn't anywhere near the top (injured, obviously). Even if you throw out the Reyes caveat, Aybar will need a strong second half to make this prediction come true.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. Not the worst prediction here as Perez is hitting .303 (with a slightly high BABIP), but he's not on pace to reach those power numbers. He'd need 16 HRs in the 2nd half, and 60 RBI. Been a solid fantasy option, though.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. Not completely out of the question, but 13 Ws in the 2nd half is exceedingly unlikely. No one in the AL has more than 11 in the first half. Dickey has turned it around lately but it won't be enough to get him 20 wins.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. If Kate gets 10 HRs from Ichiro in the 2nd half I imagine she'll be ecstatic. Probably not gonna happen. Luke got Lance Berkman from Kate for him. Berkman has been terrible so far for Luke.
5) Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. Hard to compare where Trout is now relative to last year, as he missed April of 2012. It shouldn't be hard at all for him to beat last year's numbers in RBI (51 so far, 87 last year). He's on track to fall well behind last year's numbers in Rs, HRs, and SBs, unless he manages to get substantially more PAs in the 2nd half than he has so far. His average and BABIP are down slightly from last year, but barring a run of HRs or SBs, this is probably the category where he has the best chance to make Luke's prediction come true.
BONUS (fake) prediction: Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Everyone can now proceed to laugh at Luke.
Overall, looks like 0/5 so far, with a shot at 1/5 if Trout pulls it out.
Andrew:
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting. At first Lester made Andrew look really smart, but he's slid backwards a lot in his last 7-8 starts. He's maintained the 3.3 BB/9 that Andrew hoped for, but his K/9 has been stuck in the low 7s. If he gets turned around in the 2nd half there's an off-chance he slides into the top 5 in Cy Young voting but it would have to be quite a campaign.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater. This could actually happen. Perkins is currently the #3 true reliever by player rater (you can toss out Iwakuma, who is starting). Perkins is just a hair ahead of Mariano, so it could change easily, but I'm giving this to Andrew right now.
3) Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B. Oh god, no.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB. Only 25% of the way there so far. Not gonna happen.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater. If only Andrew had guessed Chris Tillman (and not dropped him). It wouldn't be hard to be the top Baltimore SP this year, but Arrieta doesn't register right now. Struggling in AAA. Not gonna get this one.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. Absolutely possible as he's sitting at 14, but only hitting 5 in May and 1 so far in June is worrisome, and his overall numbers look a whole lot like last year's right now. He's about as streaky a hitter as they come, so the 2nd half could go in a lot of different directions. Right now it's a maybe.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher. No good so far, with him well behind Mauer and Napoli. It'll be hard to unseat Mauer in the 2nd half of the year. Santana has definitely been a solid fantasy catcher, though.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Can't rule out him closing games for the Tigers by the end of the season, but no chance of him reaching those stats.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb...becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Cobb made good on this for Bill in the first half, but the rest of Cobb's season is up in the air after being hit in the head with a line drive.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Bill should have used this one above, as he would be on target even if he wrote AND instead of OR.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Aybar is currently #10, Reyes isn't anywhere near the top (injured, obviously). Even if you throw out the Reyes caveat, Aybar will need a strong second half to make this prediction come true.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. Not the worst prediction here as Perez is hitting .303 (with a slightly high BABIP), but he's not on pace to reach those power numbers. He'd need 16 HRs in the 2nd half, and 60 RBI. Been a solid fantasy option, though.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. Not completely out of the question, but 13 Ws in the 2nd half is exceedingly unlikely. No one in the AL has more than 11 in the first half. Dickey has turned it around lately but it won't be enough to get him 20 wins.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. If Kate gets 10 HRs from Ichiro in the 2nd half I imagine she'll be ecstatic. Probably not gonna happen. Luke got Lance Berkman from Kate for him. Berkman has been terrible so far for Luke.
5) Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. Hard to compare where Trout is now relative to last year, as he missed April of 2012. It shouldn't be hard at all for him to beat last year's numbers in RBI (51 so far, 87 last year). He's on track to fall well behind last year's numbers in Rs, HRs, and SBs, unless he manages to get substantially more PAs in the 2nd half than he has so far. His average and BABIP are down slightly from last year, but barring a run of HRs or SBs, this is probably the category where he has the best chance to make Luke's prediction come true.
BONUS (fake) prediction: Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Everyone can now proceed to laugh at Luke.
Overall, looks like 0/5 so far, with a shot at 1/5 if Trout pulls it out.
Andrew:
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting. At first Lester made Andrew look really smart, but he's slid backwards a lot in his last 7-8 starts. He's maintained the 3.3 BB/9 that Andrew hoped for, but his K/9 has been stuck in the low 7s. If he gets turned around in the 2nd half there's an off-chance he slides into the top 5 in Cy Young voting but it would have to be quite a campaign.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater. This could actually happen. Perkins is currently the #3 true reliever by player rater (you can toss out Iwakuma, who is starting). Perkins is just a hair ahead of Mariano, so it could change easily, but I'm giving this to Andrew right now.
3) Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B. Oh god, no.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB. Only 25% of the way there so far. Not gonna happen.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater. If only Andrew had guessed Chris Tillman (and not dropped him). It wouldn't be hard to be the top Baltimore SP this year, but Arrieta doesn't register right now. Struggling in AAA. Not gonna get this one.
Overall: On track for 1/5, but loses a point for the Justin Smoak prediction.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Has not been the case so far this year, and while he's been better, he doesn't have a spot in the rotation right at this moment and it seems unlikely that he's their #3 by the end of the year.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. Absolutely possible as he's sitting at 14, but only hitting 5 in May and 1 so far in June is worrisome, and his overall numbers look a whole lot like last year's right now. He's about as streaky a hitter as they come, so the 2nd half could go in a lot of different directions. Right now it's a maybe.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher. No good so far, with him well behind Mauer and Napoli. It'll be hard to unseat Mauer in the 2nd half of the year. Santana has definitely been a solid fantasy catcher, though.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Can't rule out him closing games for the Tigers by the end of the season, but no chance of him reaching those stats.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb...becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Cobb made good on this for Bill in the first half, but the rest of Cobb's season is up in the air after being hit in the head with a line drive.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Bill should have used this one above, as he would be on target even if he wrote AND instead of OR.
Overall: 1/5 so far, with a solid chance at 2/5 if Reynolds keeps hitting.
1) Casey Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year. Hard to claim credit on this one. The crux of the prediction was that Frieri was going to have a better season than many people though. He has, but not quite as good as I'd predicted, and Janssen has been even better.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270. This could actually fall my way, and all it would take would be for hardy to hold his current pace with a slight uptick in his batting average. He's hit .265 in 306 ABs, with 15 HR. He's been a fantastic, and inexpensive, fantasy shortstop and allowed me trade Elvis Andrus away for a nice return.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average. Mauer is hitting .332...with a BABIP well above his career average and league norms. He hasn't missed any time, but IS 3rd in the running for the batting title so far. I don't think I'm gonna get this one.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI. Projecting Fielder to beat Cabrera in RBI was foolish. Ignoring the 100 point difference in their batting averages, it's hard to compete for RBI with a guy who keeps clearing the bases in front of your at-bats. Not gonna happen.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead. This, in a nutshell, is why my team has been so terrible this year. A projection of David Price winning the Cy Young seemed perfectly reasonable, and even that is not possibly happening. None of these guys will be sniffing the Cy Young award this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270. This could actually fall my way, and all it would take would be for hardy to hold his current pace with a slight uptick in his batting average. He's hit .265 in 306 ABs, with 15 HR. He's been a fantastic, and inexpensive, fantasy shortstop and allowed me trade Elvis Andrus away for a nice return.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average. Mauer is hitting .332...with a BABIP well above his career average and league norms. He hasn't missed any time, but IS 3rd in the running for the batting title so far. I don't think I'm gonna get this one.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI. Projecting Fielder to beat Cabrera in RBI was foolish. Ignoring the 100 point difference in their batting averages, it's hard to compete for RBI with a guy who keeps clearing the bases in front of your at-bats. Not gonna happen.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead. This, in a nutshell, is why my team has been so terrible this year. A projection of David Price winning the Cy Young seemed perfectly reasonable, and even that is not possibly happening. None of these guys will be sniffing the Cy Young award this year.
Overall: I'm gonna give myself Hardy for now, and say I'm 1/5.
Anyone want to make any bold predictions for the 2nd half? Smoak for MVP?
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Josh Hamilton's terrible, no good, very bad day
Josh Hamilton had just about as bad a game as a hitter can have last night, going 0-5 with two strikeouts and three GIDPs (with Mike Trout on base, no less). I was curious about just how bad it was, so I took a look at his WPA for the game. For those that don't know the stat, WPA stands for win probability added, and gives you a rough idea of the sum of a players contributions to the victory or loss. A team's expected winning percentage starts at 50%, and WPA looks at how each player's results change that. For example, if Jacoby Ellsbury hits a lead-off home run to start a game, and the Red Sox expected winning percentage goes from 50% to 65% (these numbers are totally made up), that plate appearance would be worth 0.15 WPA. It's a counting stat like runs or RBI, in that someone with more at bats or innings pitched will be able to accumulate more. It's also context dependent- a grand slam down three runs is worth a hell of a lot, while a grand slam up five runs is worth very little (as the team is already very likely to win the game).
Hamilton's performance was worth an amazing -0.477 WPA. That performance was so putrid it really got me thinking. First off, it's just amazing that a player can make eight outs in five at bats. Second, it got me wondering just how bad this performance was, in the grand scheme of things. Using Fangraphs custom leaderboard, I took a look at the players that had accumulated the most -WPA (that is, only the negative portion of WPA). I figured this would be a good proxy for players who have really bad games, but it's not ideal since WPA is a counting stat, so I'll end up with guys who have bad games and still have playing time. Unfortunately, I can't do a leader board for individual game WPA.
Here's what the "top" 10 looked like:
1 Melky Cabrera Blue Jays -6.23
2 Adam Dunn White Sox -6.20
3 Martin Prado Diamondbacks -6.13
4 Elvis Andrus Rangers -5.97
5 Josh Hamilton Angels -5.96
6 Alexei Ramirez White Sox -5.95
7 Mike Trout Angels -5.93
8 Alcides Escobar Royals -5.91
9 Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox -5.82
10 Starlin Castro Cubs -5.80
Our man Josh Hamilton slides in at five, joined by fellow Angel and surprise pick Mike Trout at seven. Mike Trout's name is interesting here, but he does have an overall positive WPA. It's also important to note that WPA is not really predictive- it's a good way to look at what has happened, but that's about it.
Anyway, I took a look at the game logs for each player, and other than Hamilton, none of the top 10 managed to even break -0.4. Travis Hafner did have a terrible game that amounted to -0.53 WPA, but it was a game that ran 18 innings. I also took a look at Aaron Hicks, since he had such an awful start, but even he only managed a worst game of -0.3 WPA. Hamilton's game last night was really, really, really bad, but I suppose these things happen when you use up THIRTY PERCENT of your team's outs while managing to accomplish nothing at all.
Hamilton's performance was worth an amazing -0.477 WPA. That performance was so putrid it really got me thinking. First off, it's just amazing that a player can make eight outs in five at bats. Second, it got me wondering just how bad this performance was, in the grand scheme of things. Using Fangraphs custom leaderboard, I took a look at the players that had accumulated the most -WPA (that is, only the negative portion of WPA). I figured this would be a good proxy for players who have really bad games, but it's not ideal since WPA is a counting stat, so I'll end up with guys who have bad games and still have playing time. Unfortunately, I can't do a leader board for individual game WPA.
Here's what the "top" 10 looked like:
1 Melky Cabrera Blue Jays -6.23
2 Adam Dunn White Sox -6.20
3 Martin Prado Diamondbacks -6.13
4 Elvis Andrus Rangers -5.97
5 Josh Hamilton Angels -5.96
6 Alexei Ramirez White Sox -5.95
7 Mike Trout Angels -5.93
8 Alcides Escobar Royals -5.91
9 Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox -5.82
10 Starlin Castro Cubs -5.80
Our man Josh Hamilton slides in at five, joined by fellow Angel and surprise pick Mike Trout at seven. Mike Trout's name is interesting here, but he does have an overall positive WPA. It's also important to note that WPA is not really predictive- it's a good way to look at what has happened, but that's about it.
Anyway, I took a look at the game logs for each player, and other than Hamilton, none of the top 10 managed to even break -0.4. Travis Hafner did have a terrible game that amounted to -0.53 WPA, but it was a game that ran 18 innings. I also took a look at Aaron Hicks, since he had such an awful start, but even he only managed a worst game of -0.3 WPA. Hamilton's game last night was really, really, really bad, but I suppose these things happen when you use up THIRTY PERCENT of your team's outs while managing to accomplish nothing at all.
Monday, June 10, 2013
Out of town
Hey all - I'll be gone for the next couple weeks on my honeymoon (Greece!) and won't be checking email/baseball. I've left Andrew with instructions on how to do weekly lineups, but obviously I won't be able to make any trades in the meantime. So for the only time I'll likely ever say this, don't bother making me any offers.
Friday, June 7, 2013
What if Major League Baseball had an auction draft?
Interesting article from Grantland... My one change would be that players would be required to go to the highest bidder. This should also be immediately implemented for the NFL, which would be fantastic.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9348666/the-mlb-draft-work-quite-possibly-immoral-replace-it
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9348666/the-mlb-draft-work-quite-possibly-immoral-replace-it
Monday, June 3, 2013
More Trades
I'm looking to sell low on R.A. Dickey. I'd like to trade him for a mediocre hitter, or in a 2-1 for a hitting upgrade. If you believe that Dickey can regain part or all of his 2012 form, you can get him from me for a song right now. I'm satisfied with the rest of my staff right now, so for me Dickey is just depth.
Also, after trying and failing to get some value in return for Hafner, I'm now willing to trade him for any decent player currently on the DL.
Also, after trying and failing to get some value in return for Hafner, I'm now willing to trade him for any decent player currently on the DL.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Hey, me too!
If you haven't been living under a rock, you know that I'm trying to trade Josh Hamilton. So if you already know, then why am I making this post? I don't know. Guess I'm just desperate. Somebody take this guy away from me, please!
Also wouldn't mind trading Travis Hafner for somebody who plays a position, preferably outfield or third base.
Also wouldn't mind trading Travis Hafner for somebody who plays a position, preferably outfield or third base.
Get your outfielders!
OK, since everyone else is doing it, I figure I might as well too. I've somehow stumbled into somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-7 useful (though not all great) outfielders. I'm open to trading any of them, but I'm mainly interested a smaller deal for a SP, so let me know if any of them catch your eye. My current outfielders are:
Ellsbury
Gordon
Dirks
L. Martin
Stubbs
McLouth
Reddick (on DL, scheduled to come off on Friday)
Monday, May 27, 2013
Looking to deal OF, 3B depth
I'm looking to deal any of my OF to try and upgrade OF, 2B, SS, or SP. Open to trading Mark Reynolds ($1) in the right deal as well, if anyone is interested in a 1B/3B.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Need a 3B
Will Middlebrooks has yet to catch fire again and is now on the DL for a bit. I'd like to take this opportunity to try to acquire a 3B. I have starting pitching depth to trade from, and that's about it. David Price is on the table, as are most of my starters. I'd be happy to keep it a small trade - a mediocre 3B for a mediocre starter - but I'm open to anything.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
The Mike Trout Wager: First Quarter Report
Mike Trout was the subject of much discussion and debate this offseason, and the debate culminated in a wager between me and Bill. I'm actually not 100% sure whether or not Bill agreed to the wager in the end, but it's still fun to talk about, and perhaps Bill can confirm now whether he still wants to do it. I'm certainly still agreeable to the original terms.
To review, the wager was an over/under bet on Trout's performance in each of the 5 roto categories, with the winner being whoever is on the right side in more categories. Bill took all the unders, and I took all the overs. The over/unders were set at 124.5 runs, 27.5 HRs, 80.5 RBIs, .3045 AVG, and 44.5 steals.
Mike Trout now has 40 games under his belt, so I thought this would be a good time to check in and see what he's on pace for. Here are his numbers last year, so far this year, the over/unders, and what he's on pace for:
I'm looking very good in RBI, looking kind of good in HR, but Bill has the other 3 categories and thus is winning. Trout is off to a great start by normal human standards (#2 on Player Rater right now, behind Miguel Cabrera), but he has certainly fallen off a bit from last year's insane production.
Bill was right to try and increase the RBI O/U, although at Trout's current pace it probably won't end up making a difference. The main change here that came a couple weeks into the season was Trout getting moved to 2nd in the batting order. That's a big plus for RBIs but means fewer PAs and fewer runs. Trout's run production has also suffered relative to last year, thanks to a 35 point drop in OBP, not having a .313 hitting Torii Hunter next in the order, and both Pujols and Hamilton majorly underperforming.
Here's a look at some of Trout's peripheral stats this year and last:
Slugging and walk rate are pretty much steady. The slight uptick in ISO, despite a small decline in HR/FB, I think bodes well for Trout's overall production.
If I were Bill, I'd be concerned by that 4.2% drop in K%. The sample size is still small at this point, but if Trout can keep his strikeouts this low while continuing to hit home runs at the same rate, he really won't need all that insane of a BABIP in order to beat the .305 batting average O/U. During the pre-season discussion, Caleb pointed out that we might see a significant skill improvement like this with Trout, since he's only 21. So far, it looks like Caleb was right.
Bottom line: So far the pace numbers are in Bill's favor, but the peripherals offer hope for Trout to make me the winner by taking AVG, if Trout can get his BABIP up to the .330-.340 range.
To review, the wager was an over/under bet on Trout's performance in each of the 5 roto categories, with the winner being whoever is on the right side in more categories. Bill took all the unders, and I took all the overs. The over/unders were set at 124.5 runs, 27.5 HRs, 80.5 RBIs, .3045 AVG, and 44.5 steals.
Mike Trout now has 40 games under his belt, so I thought this would be a good time to check in and see what he's on pace for. Here are his numbers last year, so far this year, the over/unders, and what he's on pace for:
G
|
PA
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
AVG
|
|
2012
|
139
|
639
|
129
|
30
|
83
|
49
|
.326
|
2013
|
40
|
187
|
27
|
8
|
29
|
7
|
.293
|
O/Us
|
124.5
|
27.5
|
80.5
|
44.5
|
.305
|
||
Pace
|
162
|
757
|
109
|
32
|
117
|
28
|
.293
|
I'm looking very good in RBI, looking kind of good in HR, but Bill has the other 3 categories and thus is winning. Trout is off to a great start by normal human standards (#2 on Player Rater right now, behind Miguel Cabrera), but he has certainly fallen off a bit from last year's insane production.
Bill was right to try and increase the RBI O/U, although at Trout's current pace it probably won't end up making a difference. The main change here that came a couple weeks into the season was Trout getting moved to 2nd in the batting order. That's a big plus for RBIs but means fewer PAs and fewer runs. Trout's run production has also suffered relative to last year, thanks to a 35 point drop in OBP, not having a .313 hitting Torii Hunter next in the order, and both Pujols and Hamilton majorly underperforming.
Here's a look at some of Trout's peripheral stats this year and last:
OBP
|
SLG
|
BB%
|
K%
|
BABIP
|
HR/FB
|
ISO
|
|
2012
|
.399
|
.564
|
10.5%
|
21.8%
|
.383
|
21.6%
|
.238
|
2013
|
.364
|
.549
|
10.2%
|
17.6%
|
.317
|
19.0%
|
.256
|
Slugging and walk rate are pretty much steady. The slight uptick in ISO, despite a small decline in HR/FB, I think bodes well for Trout's overall production.
If I were Bill, I'd be concerned by that 4.2% drop in K%. The sample size is still small at this point, but if Trout can keep his strikeouts this low while continuing to hit home runs at the same rate, he really won't need all that insane of a BABIP in order to beat the .305 batting average O/U. During the pre-season discussion, Caleb pointed out that we might see a significant skill improvement like this with Trout, since he's only 21. So far, it looks like Caleb was right.
Bottom line: So far the pace numbers are in Bill's favor, but the peripherals offer hope for Trout to make me the winner by taking AVG, if Trout can get his BABIP up to the .330-.340 range.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
2 for 1 or 3 for 2?
I'm looking for a 2-1 or 3-2, thanks to a couple players coming off the DL and the bench players I've picked up hitting well. The biggest things I'd like to shore up are my pitching (esp Ks) and outfield, where I have a lot of depth, but no great players (Coco's massive start, aside). 2B and SS are mediocre, so an upgrade would be of interest there as well. Mark Reynolds is about to pick up 3B eligibility, so I have tremendous flexibility at the corners. Let me know if you can see something that works.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
OF for an IF?
I'm looking to trade one of my OFs to replace the suck that is Mitch Moreland/Carlos Pena. Open to trading smaller pieces or bigger pieces...
Thursday, May 9, 2013
On pace for...
It's always fun to take a look at the "on pace for" numbers that ESPN provides. They're not not the most sophisticated projections in the world, as they just take a players per game production so far and extend it for the remainder to the regular season, but interesting none the less. I wanted to see how production so far has compared to last year's numbers.
To start out, I picked a set of thresholds based based on what I considered "good production" for each stat and how many players hit the thresholds last year - they are: 90 runs, 30 home runs, 95 RsBI,and 30 stolen bases. For background about the projected numbers I'm going to present in a little bit, here are the 2012 totals for players above the aforementioned thresholds, along with the overall leader in the statistic. These totals are only for the AL, as our league is an AL only league, and therefore the NL doesn't matter. I mean seriously, pitchers hit over there.
Before we get in to the projections, it is important to note that we should expect there to be more players above these thresholds than over the course of the 2012 season. We're working with a small sample size here, so a burst of production can dramatically change the overall projection. For example, Jonny Gomes' 5 RBI night last night led to a 24 RBI increase in his projected season totals. Without further ado, here are the projected numbers of players above the thresholds:
So as predicted, we're seeing more players projected to reach 90 runs and 95 RBI in 2013 than we saw in 2012. Home runs are about equal and the projected number of 30 base stealers is down a bit. Again, I want to emphasize that this is a small sample size, and a single stolen base and a few games played is the difference between being projected to steal 35 and 28 bases over the course of the season, so these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The overall decline in stolen bases was noted before this season, however, in 2013 we've seen another marked drop in stolen bases. Our rudimentary analysis seems to back this up, as well.
Now the real fun begins, as we get into the leaders. Again, because we're looking at a small sample size, we'd expect our projected 2013 to top the actual 2012 leaders.
What really stands out to me are the two teammates, Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera, who are on pace to demolish the leaders from last year. But just how impressive are these totals from a month and a half? Here are the two best monthly totals for runs and RBI from last year, from Mike Trout's June and Josh Hamilton's May.
Note the projections differ due to the difference in games played for the Angels and Rangers in July and May, respectively.
So we can see that while Austin Jackson has been fantastic in the first five and a half weeks of the season, what he's doing was outdone by Mike Trout's best month. On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera is actually outperforming Hamilton's best month from last year, which is just nuts. While Cabrera hasn't been hitting as many home runs so far this year (6, on pace for 31), everything else about him has been spectacular.
To start out, I picked a set of thresholds based based on what I considered "good production" for each stat and how many players hit the thresholds last year - they are: 90 runs, 30 home runs, 95 RsBI,and 30 stolen bases. For background about the projected numbers I'm going to present in a little bit, here are the 2012 totals for players above the aforementioned thresholds, along with the overall leader in the statistic. These totals are only for the AL, as our league is an AL only league, and therefore the NL doesn't matter. I mean seriously, pitchers hit over there.
| Threshold | 2012 | Leader | Total | |
| Runs | 90 | 13 | Trout | 129 |
| HR | 30 | 15 | Cabrera | 44 |
| RBI | 95 | 11 | Cabrera | 139 |
| SB | 30 | 9 | Trout | 49 |
Before we get in to the projections, it is important to note that we should expect there to be more players above these thresholds than over the course of the 2012 season. We're working with a small sample size here, so a burst of production can dramatically change the overall projection. For example, Jonny Gomes' 5 RBI night last night led to a 24 RBI increase in his projected season totals. Without further ado, here are the projected numbers of players above the thresholds:
| 2012 # | 2013 proj # | Threshold | |
| Runs | 13 | 22 | 19 |
| HR | 15 | 16 | 7 |
| RBI | 11 | 23 | 19 |
| SB | 9 | 6 | 7 |
So as predicted, we're seeing more players projected to reach 90 runs and 95 RBI in 2013 than we saw in 2012. Home runs are about equal and the projected number of 30 base stealers is down a bit. Again, I want to emphasize that this is a small sample size, and a single stolen base and a few games played is the difference between being projected to steal 35 and 28 bases over the course of the season, so these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The overall decline in stolen bases was noted before this season, however, in 2013 we've seen another marked drop in stolen bases. Our rudimentary analysis seems to back this up, as well.
Now the real fun begins, as we get into the leaders. Again, because we're looking at a small sample size, we'd expect our projected 2013 to top the actual 2012 leaders.
| 2012 leader | 2013 projected leader | ||||
| Name | Total | Name | Proj. | Current | |
| Runs | Trout | 129 | Jackson | 162 | 31 |
| HR | Cabrera | 44 | Reynolds | 51 | 10 |
| RBI | Cabrera | 139 | Cabrera | 193 | 37 |
| SB | Trout | 49 | Ellsbury | 57 | 12 |
What really stands out to me are the two teammates, Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera, who are on pace to demolish the leaders from last year. But just how impressive are these totals from a month and a half? Here are the two best monthly totals for runs and RBI from last year, from Mike Trout's June and Josh Hamilton's May.
| Name | Monthly total | Projected | |
| Runs | Trout | 32 | 199 |
| RBI | Hamilton | 32 | 185 |
So we can see that while Austin Jackson has been fantastic in the first five and a half weeks of the season, what he's doing was outdone by Mike Trout's best month. On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera is actually outperforming Hamilton's best month from last year, which is just nuts. While Cabrera hasn't been hitting as many home runs so far this year (6, on pace for 31), everything else about him has been spectacular.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Take my pitching, please.
As my team continues to shit the bed, I'm looking to revamp my pitching staff. I'm not going to part with David Price for pennies on the dollar, but he's available. And if you see a silver lining in Parker, Hammels, Masterson, Tepesch, or Phelps, make me an offer. I'm gonna hold onto Milone for now. I think my team can still compete, so I'm not necessarily looking to punt entirely, just to change things up a bit. Not looking for anything specific...other crappy starters, offensive depth, or a third baseman who can make contact with baseballs would be great.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Evaluating the offseason and early season deals
We're one month in to the season, so I thought it would be useful to take a look at how the trades have broken down so far.
Granted, we are only a month in, so a lot can change still. I've included salaries for preseason trades, because I think that is important as it frees up other money for the draft, but not for the in season trades.
Preseason
Bill trades Ian Kinsler ($22), Josh Reddick ($10), and Jake Peavy ($6) to Kate for Edwin Encarnacion ($9)
Overall, this trade looks like a win/win. Kate gets the edge in production, as Ian Kinsler has been the best player in the deal via the Player Rater (#9 hitter, #2 2B) and Peavy was excellent for her (3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24 K, 18 IP) before being traded to Taylor in exchange for Jered Weaver. Josh Reddick was not kept, so I'm going to leave him out of the analysis. Edwin Encarnacion has been a beast lately, though, hitting five home runs in the last week to push his season total to nine. His low batting average thus far has depressed his player rater value a bit, but that appears to be related to batting average on balls in play, which is abnormally low (.195). Kate wins overall production and depth, but I got fairly similar production for less salary.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push (win/win)
Caleb trades Mark Trumbo ($4) and Manny Machado ($10) to Luke for David Price ($25)
Worried about Trumbo's terrible second half, Caleb shipped the cheap power hitting outfielder and rookie phenom Machado to Luke for David Price. With Felix Hernandez going for $33 in the draft, Caleb probably got $5 worth of preseason value out of this deal, along with cost certainty for his #1 pitcher. Unfortunately, Price has not pitched well so far (#48 SP, 5.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but he is maintaining strikeout and walk rates similar to last year, so most of his poor performance stems from lots of home runs (18% of fly balls, compared to a typical average of 10%) and a high average on balls in play (.343, career worst by .060). He'll come around, but for the time being the results have been rough. Trumbo, on the other hand, has started off hot, hitting .300 with six home runs, despite the general malaise in the Angels lineup surrounding him. He comes in at the #20 overall hitter, and has nice positional flexibility (1B and OF) to boot. Whether he can avoid his second half collapse remains another question, as he had a similar line before the All Star Break in 2012 (.306/.358/.608) before becoming a generally terrible hitter after the break (.227/.271/.359). I don't think Price will continue to pitch poorly, nor do I think that Trumbo will continue to hit .300, but with a month of excellent production in hand for Trumbo and poor production from Price, coupled with the salary difference, I think the winner is clear.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Luke
Luke trades Manny Machado ($10) and Fernando Rodney ($10) to Mark for Leonys Martin ($1)
Hope Manny Machado never unpacked his virtual suitcases. Shortly after being traded to Luke's team, Luke shipped him out, along with Tampa closer Fernando Rodney in exchange for Leonys Martin. Machado wasn't kept, so I've left him out of this analysis, but he's looking like the best player in the deal. Rodney has apparently lost whatever it was that led him to the best relief season in recent memory. Rodney had excellent control in 2012 (1.81 BB/9 IP),and pretty poor control for the rest of his career (4.47 BB/9 IP). It appears he's turned back into a pumpkin, having walked seven batters in only 8 1/3 innings so far this season, leading to a bloated 4.32 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. He still has the closer job, though, and as long as he can hang on, he'll be in Mark's lineup. There was a lot of hype surrounding Martin in the preseason, that he would take the Texas center field job outright and could be a candidate for 30 stolen bases. All the while the Rangers said that he'd splitting time in center field with Craig Gentry and his anemic bat, but excellent speed and defense. Well, the Rangers stuck to their word, although Martin helped out by only hitting .245/.302/.347 with one homer and no stolen bases. Although Rodney has been a disappointment, he's still on the roster and still getting saves.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark (lose/lose aspects, though)
Andrew trades Alcides Escobar ($2) and Doug Fister ($4) to Taylor for Alex Gordon ($6)
In this deal, Taylor gave up a sub-$10, top 10 or 15 outfielder for two cheap, value keepers. Thus far, everyone has lived up to or exceeded expectations. Gordon currently sits at #7 on the player rater, with contributions across the board: .321 average, 19 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 3 SB. Not bad for a $6 player. Doug Fister has a 2.38 ERA, a WHIP just over 1.00, and a pristine 4-0 record. Not too shabby for a $4 pitcher. And finally we get to the player who is looking like the gem of the deal, Alcides Escobar. Escobar was a solid starter last year, hitting .293 with 35 SB and not offering much else. This year Escobar has been an across the board contributor and is above average in every single stat, with a very impressive .291 average, 13 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 6 SB. The power probably won't continue, as Escobar has averaged just over 4 HR per year over the past three seasons, but he is still only 26 and could be developing into a 10+ HR hitter. Gordon and Escobar are right next to each other in the player rater currently (5.79 for Gordon, 5.78 for Escobar), and while Gordon is a lot more likely to be able to keep up his offensive production, Taylor also added a very good, every week starter in the deal.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
March and April
Bill trades Jim Johnson to Mark for Tom Wilhelmsen
Looking for more strikeouts, and foolishly believing that Rondon would eventually end up with the closer job in Detroit, I traded away rock solid, but strikeout impaired, closer to Mark for the flame throwing Seattle closer, Tom Wilhelmsen. Since the deal, up has been down, left has been right, and Jim Johnson has been striking out a batter per inning. That, coupled with a nice run of saves and a win in relief has made Johnson the #1 closer. Wilhelmsen has pitched extremely well (0.69 ERA, 0.62 WHIP), but his strikeout rate has been a bit pedestrian, at least by the lofty standards he set last year. I doubt Johnson will continue to out-K Wilhelmsen, but stranger things have happened.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark
Caleb trades Mike Napoli to Taylor for Ryan Doumit and Lorenzo Cain
Who would you rather have:
Player A: 16 R, 6 HR, 31 RBI, .287 avg, 0 SB
Player B: 20 R, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .265 avg, 3 SB
It might come down to your team's statistical needs, but most players would pick player A. As Sox fans, you've probably all successfully identified Mike Napoli's spectacular early season line. Player B is actually Doumit and Cain combined, or as I like to call him, Ryenzo Doumain. To have one player outproduce two means that no matter how shitty that outfielder Taylor is running out in Cain's place, he's coming out ahead. Cain has actually been pulling his weight, with the lone home run, all three stolen bases, most of the runs and RBI, while hitting over .300. He is looking like a potential keeper, one month in. Unfortunately for Caleb, so is Napoli. Napoli is on pace to put up similar numbers to his spectacular 2011, when he hit 30 HR despite missing 50 games.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Caleb trades Josh Reddick and Lonnie Chisenhall for Josh Willingham and Al Alburquerque
Andrew had too many relief pitchers following the draft, needed an injury fill in for Brett Lawrie, and coveted Josh Reddick. Caleb was gambling on saves with the Detroit closer situation unsettled, and had no use for Chisenhall. Within the month, both Chisenhall and Alburquerque were cut, essentially leaving this deal as Reddick for Willingham. Willingham has been his usual self - mediocre average, good pop (4 HR), and limited runs and RBI (compared to his power) due to his terrible speed and a poor lineup surrounding him. He's on pace for his usual 30 HR season. Reddick, on the other hand, has been a giant mess. Although he isn't striking out any more, and is in fact walking more, he's also hitting a ton more groundballs, which severely limits his power upside. He's hitting a meager .148 on the season, which is partly BABIP driven, but is still worrisome. The lone bright spot has been his stolen base totals; with five already, he's on pace to top 25, blowing past the 11 he had last year. Unfortuntately, Andrew already has a comfortable lead in stolen bases.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Caleb
Kate trades Jake Peavy to Taylor for Jered Weaver
Prior to this trade, Jake Peavy had been pitching spectacularly well (24 K: 1 BB in 18 IP) and Weaver had some massive red flags, including a big drop in velocity, poor control, and a poor strikeout rate, albeit in only two starts. And he also had a broken left (non-throwing) elbow that would sideline him for a month or two. Since the deal Peavy has continued to pitch well (2.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 K). Kate is banking on Jered Weaver returning immediately to his sub-3.00 ERA form, but even last year the Ks were way down (6.77 K/9 IP). Even if Weaver returns to form, a month or two of replacement level pitching plus the remainder of Weaver's season probably won't top Peavy.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Andrew trades Stephen Drew to Kate for Andy Dirks
A minor, need based deal. Kate needed a shortstop, with Reyes hurting his ankle, and Andrew has coveted Dirks since the draft. Dirks went ahead and got hurt immediately, so he hasn't played at all for Andrew and Stephen Drew has allowed Kate to bench the scuffling Maicer Izturis. Not too much to see here.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
Caleb trades Junichi Tazawa to Taylor for Kelvin Herrera
The most recent trade is a funny little deal. You don't see too many deals where a non-closer RP gets swapped for a non-closer RP, especially when one was just picked up. At the time of the deal, I liked it better for Taylor - Hanrahan was hurt, Bailey was the interim closer and was shaky in his first few appearances. Since then Bailey has locked down the role and Hanrahan has returned from his tweaked hamstring. Herrera has put up some spectacular strike out numbers (19 in 12 IP), but he's also been oddly hittable for a guy touching triple digits (5+ ERA). Herrera probably has more upside going forward, but Tazawa is someone you can always plug into your lineup and feel OK about. Both are probably cuttable should Taylor or Caleb need an injury replacement.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
The final preposterously early verdict? Don't trade with Taylor!
Preseason
Bill trades Ian Kinsler ($22), Josh Reddick ($10), and Jake Peavy ($6) to Kate for Edwin Encarnacion ($9)
Overall, this trade looks like a win/win. Kate gets the edge in production, as Ian Kinsler has been the best player in the deal via the Player Rater (#9 hitter, #2 2B) and Peavy was excellent for her (3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24 K, 18 IP) before being traded to Taylor in exchange for Jered Weaver. Josh Reddick was not kept, so I'm going to leave him out of the analysis. Edwin Encarnacion has been a beast lately, though, hitting five home runs in the last week to push his season total to nine. His low batting average thus far has depressed his player rater value a bit, but that appears to be related to batting average on balls in play, which is abnormally low (.195). Kate wins overall production and depth, but I got fairly similar production for less salary.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push (win/win)
Caleb trades Mark Trumbo ($4) and Manny Machado ($10) to Luke for David Price ($25)
Worried about Trumbo's terrible second half, Caleb shipped the cheap power hitting outfielder and rookie phenom Machado to Luke for David Price. With Felix Hernandez going for $33 in the draft, Caleb probably got $5 worth of preseason value out of this deal, along with cost certainty for his #1 pitcher. Unfortunately, Price has not pitched well so far (#48 SP, 5.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but he is maintaining strikeout and walk rates similar to last year, so most of his poor performance stems from lots of home runs (18% of fly balls, compared to a typical average of 10%) and a high average on balls in play (.343, career worst by .060). He'll come around, but for the time being the results have been rough. Trumbo, on the other hand, has started off hot, hitting .300 with six home runs, despite the general malaise in the Angels lineup surrounding him. He comes in at the #20 overall hitter, and has nice positional flexibility (1B and OF) to boot. Whether he can avoid his second half collapse remains another question, as he had a similar line before the All Star Break in 2012 (.306/.358/.608) before becoming a generally terrible hitter after the break (.227/.271/.359). I don't think Price will continue to pitch poorly, nor do I think that Trumbo will continue to hit .300, but with a month of excellent production in hand for Trumbo and poor production from Price, coupled with the salary difference, I think the winner is clear.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Luke
Luke trades Manny Machado ($10) and Fernando Rodney ($10) to Mark for Leonys Martin ($1)
Hope Manny Machado never unpacked his virtual suitcases. Shortly after being traded to Luke's team, Luke shipped him out, along with Tampa closer Fernando Rodney in exchange for Leonys Martin. Machado wasn't kept, so I've left him out of this analysis, but he's looking like the best player in the deal. Rodney has apparently lost whatever it was that led him to the best relief season in recent memory. Rodney had excellent control in 2012 (1.81 BB/9 IP),and pretty poor control for the rest of his career (4.47 BB/9 IP). It appears he's turned back into a pumpkin, having walked seven batters in only 8 1/3 innings so far this season, leading to a bloated 4.32 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. He still has the closer job, though, and as long as he can hang on, he'll be in Mark's lineup. There was a lot of hype surrounding Martin in the preseason, that he would take the Texas center field job outright and could be a candidate for 30 stolen bases. All the while the Rangers said that he'd splitting time in center field with Craig Gentry and his anemic bat, but excellent speed and defense. Well, the Rangers stuck to their word, although Martin helped out by only hitting .245/.302/.347 with one homer and no stolen bases. Although Rodney has been a disappointment, he's still on the roster and still getting saves.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark (lose/lose aspects, though)
Andrew trades Alcides Escobar ($2) and Doug Fister ($4) to Taylor for Alex Gordon ($6)
In this deal, Taylor gave up a sub-$10, top 10 or 15 outfielder for two cheap, value keepers. Thus far, everyone has lived up to or exceeded expectations. Gordon currently sits at #7 on the player rater, with contributions across the board: .321 average, 19 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 3 SB. Not bad for a $6 player. Doug Fister has a 2.38 ERA, a WHIP just over 1.00, and a pristine 4-0 record. Not too shabby for a $4 pitcher. And finally we get to the player who is looking like the gem of the deal, Alcides Escobar. Escobar was a solid starter last year, hitting .293 with 35 SB and not offering much else. This year Escobar has been an across the board contributor and is above average in every single stat, with a very impressive .291 average, 13 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 6 SB. The power probably won't continue, as Escobar has averaged just over 4 HR per year over the past three seasons, but he is still only 26 and could be developing into a 10+ HR hitter. Gordon and Escobar are right next to each other in the player rater currently (5.79 for Gordon, 5.78 for Escobar), and while Gordon is a lot more likely to be able to keep up his offensive production, Taylor also added a very good, every week starter in the deal.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
March and April
Bill trades Jim Johnson to Mark for Tom Wilhelmsen
Looking for more strikeouts, and foolishly believing that Rondon would eventually end up with the closer job in Detroit, I traded away rock solid, but strikeout impaired, closer to Mark for the flame throwing Seattle closer, Tom Wilhelmsen. Since the deal, up has been down, left has been right, and Jim Johnson has been striking out a batter per inning. That, coupled with a nice run of saves and a win in relief has made Johnson the #1 closer. Wilhelmsen has pitched extremely well (0.69 ERA, 0.62 WHIP), but his strikeout rate has been a bit pedestrian, at least by the lofty standards he set last year. I doubt Johnson will continue to out-K Wilhelmsen, but stranger things have happened.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark
Caleb trades Mike Napoli to Taylor for Ryan Doumit and Lorenzo Cain
Who would you rather have:
Player A: 16 R, 6 HR, 31 RBI, .287 avg, 0 SB
Player B: 20 R, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .265 avg, 3 SB
It might come down to your team's statistical needs, but most players would pick player A. As Sox fans, you've probably all successfully identified Mike Napoli's spectacular early season line. Player B is actually Doumit and Cain combined, or as I like to call him, Ryenzo Doumain. To have one player outproduce two means that no matter how shitty that outfielder Taylor is running out in Cain's place, he's coming out ahead. Cain has actually been pulling his weight, with the lone home run, all three stolen bases, most of the runs and RBI, while hitting over .300. He is looking like a potential keeper, one month in. Unfortunately for Caleb, so is Napoli. Napoli is on pace to put up similar numbers to his spectacular 2011, when he hit 30 HR despite missing 50 games.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Caleb trades Josh Reddick and Lonnie Chisenhall for Josh Willingham and Al Alburquerque
Andrew had too many relief pitchers following the draft, needed an injury fill in for Brett Lawrie, and coveted Josh Reddick. Caleb was gambling on saves with the Detroit closer situation unsettled, and had no use for Chisenhall. Within the month, both Chisenhall and Alburquerque were cut, essentially leaving this deal as Reddick for Willingham. Willingham has been his usual self - mediocre average, good pop (4 HR), and limited runs and RBI (compared to his power) due to his terrible speed and a poor lineup surrounding him. He's on pace for his usual 30 HR season. Reddick, on the other hand, has been a giant mess. Although he isn't striking out any more, and is in fact walking more, he's also hitting a ton more groundballs, which severely limits his power upside. He's hitting a meager .148 on the season, which is partly BABIP driven, but is still worrisome. The lone bright spot has been his stolen base totals; with five already, he's on pace to top 25, blowing past the 11 he had last year. Unfortuntately, Andrew already has a comfortable lead in stolen bases.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Caleb
Kate trades Jake Peavy to Taylor for Jered Weaver
Prior to this trade, Jake Peavy had been pitching spectacularly well (24 K: 1 BB in 18 IP) and Weaver had some massive red flags, including a big drop in velocity, poor control, and a poor strikeout rate, albeit in only two starts. And he also had a broken left (non-throwing) elbow that would sideline him for a month or two. Since the deal Peavy has continued to pitch well (2.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 K). Kate is banking on Jered Weaver returning immediately to his sub-3.00 ERA form, but even last year the Ks were way down (6.77 K/9 IP). Even if Weaver returns to form, a month or two of replacement level pitching plus the remainder of Weaver's season probably won't top Peavy.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor
Andrew trades Stephen Drew to Kate for Andy Dirks
A minor, need based deal. Kate needed a shortstop, with Reyes hurting his ankle, and Andrew has coveted Dirks since the draft. Dirks went ahead and got hurt immediately, so he hasn't played at all for Andrew and Stephen Drew has allowed Kate to bench the scuffling Maicer Izturis. Not too much to see here.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
Caleb trades Junichi Tazawa to Taylor for Kelvin Herrera
The most recent trade is a funny little deal. You don't see too many deals where a non-closer RP gets swapped for a non-closer RP, especially when one was just picked up. At the time of the deal, I liked it better for Taylor - Hanrahan was hurt, Bailey was the interim closer and was shaky in his first few appearances. Since then Bailey has locked down the role and Hanrahan has returned from his tweaked hamstring. Herrera has put up some spectacular strike out numbers (19 in 12 IP), but he's also been oddly hittable for a guy touching triple digits (5+ ERA). Herrera probably has more upside going forward, but Tazawa is someone you can always plug into your lineup and feel OK about. Both are probably cuttable should Taylor or Caleb need an injury replacement.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push
The final preposterously early verdict? Don't trade with Taylor!
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