Out of curiosity, I took some time to try to figure out some of the best and worst values in the draft. Rather than take the time to construct my own valuations, I used the values generated by lastplayerpicked.com using 2011 stats. One thing to note is that this somehow has the average WHIP as 1.12 (!) and ERA as 2.91 (!!), which skews pitcher values downwards for the most part. To account for this I'm splitting pitchers from hitters. Also, since this is based on the very best players for total 2011 stats, players get heavily penalized for any time missed. I'm only looking at the draft, rather than keepers.
That said, here are some highlights:
The "I think I've made a huge mistake" Pitcher award goes to Spencer, for drafting John Lackey for $9. Lackey amassed an amazing $-43 over the course of his remarkably bad season, tanking not only Spencer's chances but the Red Sox playoff hopes as well.
Runner up: Max Scherzer, Spencer, $24 draft, $-12 value. Ouch, Spencer. How's that for a one two punch? $33 in the draft for $-55 in value
The "I think I've made a huge mistake" hitter award predictably goes to Adam Dunn, with his $26 price tag and $-13 value. Simply removing Dunn from Luke's starting lineup would have added five points of batting average! Congrats Luke! Caleb takes home the honorable mention with Justin Morneau at $19 with a $-14 value.
The "There's no there there" award goes to Kendrys Morales, for costing $16 and not accumulating a single plate appearance. On the bright side, Kate, you could have drafted Adam Dunn and had him completely torpedo your batting average. David Aardsma wins the pitching award, though was only $6 (go me!)
For most valuable, it was a trio of outfielders, led by Taylor's post hype sleeper Alex Gordon, taking home a whopping $32 of value at the cost of a single dollar. Power/speed threats Curtis Granderson ($20) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($24) each had $28 of value. Taylor also had Jeff Francoeur (post post post hype sleeper?) who accumulated $24 of value for only $1. Verlander was the most valuable pitcher, with $48 worth of production for only $26.
Other fun things of note- no $5 bin had a positive average value. This was to be expected, though, given the impact of inflation from keepers. The $16-$20 bin came the closest to breaking even, with players like Granderson, Kinsler, Mike Young, and BJ Upton leading the way to an average value of $-1.13.
5 comments:
I drafted Morales for team morale (obvs.). And he was very disappointing even in that role.
You should have drafted him for his morals. I hear he's a stand up guy.
Can you post the detailed rankings of these to a google doc or something? I am curious.
So, I would, but I can't seem to find the file. I have no idea where it ended up.
Interesting. Well, it's that kind of negative value that helps you end up in last place! You don't get there easily.
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