So far this season the Orioles have cycled through four different closers – Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson, Alfredo Simon, and Will Ohman. A total of $11 in the draft was spent on the O’s bullpen, and so far in free agency $39 has been spent. To put this in perspective, $39 is just under 5% of the total free agent budget for the entire league and an incredible 21% of all money spent on free agents. To make matters worse for those scrounging for saves, the price of the Orioles bullpen appears to be increasing.
| Closer du jour | $ | Type | Team | Saves | Date |
| F. Mata | 2 | FA | Luke | ? | 5/29/2010 |
| W. Ohman | 20 | FA | Caleb | ? | 5/29/2010 |
| A. Simon | 14 | FA | Luke | 6 | 5/1/2010 |
| J. Johnson | 3 | FA | Spencer | 1 | 4/10/2010 |
| M. Gonzalez | 11 | Draft | Spencer | 1 |
Let's have some fun with these numbers. Using a logarithmic trend line (meaning the value for the Orioles' closer is approaching a maximum value, rather than a linear trend line, where there is no limit for how much money to throw at the current closer) the value for the closer of the week is still increasing substantially. The logarithmic trend line has just about a perfect fit (R^2>.97) and pegs the value of the next closer (the recently demoted Cla Meredith? the recently bumped from the starting rotation David Hernandez?) should go for $25. Of course, if Mata is next in line, Luke may have saved himself a bundle of free agent money, having only spent $2 on him So, if you're looking to get a great deal, grab those Orioles relievers now!
3 comments:
Slow day down in the league basement...
Heh. I submitted an initial bid for Ohman, meaning to go back and lower it significantly before the bid was due. I didn't get a chance to change it, and it was just enough to beat Spencer's $17. Whether Ohman will be worth even $1 remains to be seen, of course.
Hey now. I'm working with four different teams on deals. Hardly a slow day down here in the cellar.
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