I don't have time to do a full analysis but off the top of my head:
Winners:
Bill - With good value in the first round next year, losing crawford was not a big blow, and Quentin, with another HR today, will at least be pretty good next year with a waiver wire pick up. Meanwhile, he strengthened his position for this year, which he needed with all the injuries.
Andrew - Andrew will now be keeping Cabrera, Crawford, and Longoria, just to start. That's a pretty nasty start to a line-up. Oh, and he also has Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Brandon Morrow. Drew should be in great shape next year.
Slight Winner:
Mark - This was a trade Mark needed to make but Longoria is arguably the best keeper in the game. It should make for a VERY interesting end of the year race, but things would look a lot better if he had managed to block andrew's second trade with Bill. As it is, MZ is still well positioned keeper wise with granderson and sizemore, but can only watch in pain if this year's title slips away and has to watch longoria hit 45 HRs next year.
Caleb - Again, good value in the first round next year (Texiera, Bay) so i like the ordonez trade for him (even though I pulled the trigger). I learned the hard way about pitcher keepers, but halladay and kazmir are much more of a sure bet than frickin clay buccholz. Doesn't have the killer keeper that Bill or Andrew has, but looking better for next year.
Loser:
Spencer - I just really wanted Ortiz on my team. But aside from that, while Andrew made 4 or 5 dump trades, I had to content myself with getting delmon young, and brandon wood. Not exactly laying the groundwork for a return to glory. The bottom line was that Andrew had the players to trade, while i had total crap like Sheffield and Paul Konerko. What an utter disaster of a season.
???????
Youuk - I can't decipher all of the trades Youuuk made - at first I thought he was positioning himself for keepers but then he traded me for carlos pena? He added a lot of talent for this year, some good keepers (Beckett, Cano) - so I'm not sure how to figure it all out. But he's still very much in it this year, so he's a dark horse for taking the title this year.
13 comments:
Hehehehehehe....I'm an enigma!
My biggest mistake was not insisting that Quentin be included in the trade. I should have known that Andrew's, "I'm really too attached to Quentin to trade him", was smoke and mirrors considering Bill's man-crush on Quentin. My feeling at the time was Granderson is a better keeper than Quentin and would still give me the runs I needed. Vlad would keep up the RBI and HR production I was losing in Longoria and Rivera would be a key piece in gaining points in Saves.
Bill's grab of Quentin certainly puts a wrench in that plan. I'm still optimistic that I added enough value to win, but definitely not to the extent that I wanted for trading Longoria.
While keepers are certainly valuable, they don't make a title. 3 of my 5 keepers last year have been disappointing (Bedard, V Mart, Young). When you got a chance to make a run at a title I believe you got to take the opportunity. As the great Marshal Bruce Mathers once so prophetically said, "You only got one shot, one opportunity, do you capture it? or let it slip."
Is there something that I'm missing about Quentin? Undrafted, 25 years old, leading the league in HR, also hitting about .290, and playing for the 2nd best offense in the AL. Shouldn't he be considered the best keeper in the league, and why would Andrew trade him for Crawford? Davis I understand, but I wouldn't want anything to do with Crawford in the 1st round. I admit, of course, that I have an enormous bias against stolen bases.
The key here is that Crawford isn't a 1st round player for Andrew, he is a 2nd round player. Looking at last years draft - Jeter, Manny, and Papelbon went in the second. Would you really rather have one of them over Crawford? I think that Quentin is very valuable, but there certainly is a lot more risk associated with him than with Crawford. Think about Carlos Pena has been OK this year, but a far cry from his massive 2007. While he has still been a good value, he wasn't the elite player he was last year. Crawford has certainly dissapointed this year, but has established himself as a premier basestealer and a guy who will hit for a high average. He was unlucky on balls in play this year (especially for a guy with his speed), and his injuries haven't been ones that should linger. A guy who can steal 50 bases is a tremendous value, especially as second round pick.
And Mark, although I love Quentin long term, what really made me covet him this year is his OBP. By dealing Crawford and Davis (who could end up being a huge keeper, especially now that he is able to play 3B), I added three high OBP players from strong offenses, which is exactly what I need to hold on to my lead in runs. The real question is whether or not it will be enough - Mark has positioned himself well to gain several points in saves, so I'll need my pitching staff to pitch well down the stretch to stay ahead in WHIP and ERA.
Don't forget that Hafner was a 2nd round pick as well this year...oops.
I actually personally think that Crawford may have hit his ceiling -not that he won't produce at the level he has been but that he won't develop the power that would have made a truly elite player. Plus, he's had enough injuries that while they won't linger, it's hard to count on a full season from him.
It'll be interesting to see how Quentin does next year. I'm inclined to write this off as a career year, but it's hard to base that on anything tangible other than the fact that he lost the last few years...but before that I guess he was a legit prospect.
Chris Davis is an interesting keeper prospect. He's playing great now, but then there's the Josh Fields case where the guy hits 25+HRs last year in the majors and then doesn't get out of the minors the following year.
Also, if you do the math, the only people not keeping their first round picks now will be Bill, Caleb, and Youuuuk. Assuming Texiera and Bay go 1-2, that still leaves great potential value in the 2nd round such as Ichiro, Vlad, etc.
Actually, I just looked at Crawford's injury history. Looks like this year has been the only problem, so he's more durable than I thought. For some reason I thought he got injured last year as well.
Spencer I honestly was happy to get rid of Carlos Pena. I don't see his average getting above .250 much, or his HR getting above 30 that much. He's obviously a great value in the 26th round, but I see him as being one of those Giambi-like guys who has good power and a weak average, and the power being just barely enough to make him worth keeping despite his average. Matsuzaka was the real deal-maker for me. He hasn't shown his full potential yet and has an incredible upside. With all those Ks and the great offense he has behind him, I'll most likely be keeping him in the 6th round. I definitely wouldn't keep Cano, but this year I've had Iwamura playing 2nd base for me so Cano is definitely an upgrade there.
Also, it no longer matters to me at all how well my pitchers do in ERA and WHIP. No one's gonna catch me there. I'm just looking for Ws, Ks, and enough saves to pass Andrew and hold off Mark. Mark might want to be careful though in pitching all his efforts towards passing me in saves, because while he's doing that I could pass him in Ws. It will be interesting to see how that race goes down.
Mark, if it makes you feel any better I was really, really close to just walking away from the table with Bill. It was one of those situations where my gut reaction to the trade was negative. In fact, I still have lots of doubts about it. The deciding factor for me was getting a player that has been fairly reliable over the past 4 years. My biggest worry about the deal is that Crawford just doesn't get one base enough, and it's hard to score lots of runs if you don't get on base. Another reason why I loved Quentin so much- he scores lots of runs for a guy with his power. I bought out a lot of risk by unloading Quentin, but at what cost? Crawford has never equaled Quentin's current runs, RBI, or HR numbers, plus Quentin just stole a base tonight. Man, Carlos Quentin could have been a great cornerstone in rebuilding my team as the resurrected Mandrew & the Carloses. Sigh, now I'm all maudlin about the trade again. Why did I even start thinking about it?
Correction- Crawford has bested Quentin's current runs in two seasons, and tied him in a third, but he falls short of Quentin's projected run total.
Also, the layout of the comments page is kind of terrible. Shouldn't they expand out after the first few so there isn't so much wasted space?
Yay, I'm a slight winner. I'd agree with that assessment. I would have been a bigger winner had I worked out the trade with Spencer for Ortiz earlier, netting some of the players that Luke got for Pena instead. That might have kept me in the race more so than I am now. I mean, I'm in first, but I don't see it continuing with the vast improvements the other three contenders have made.
As Luke knows, I'm with him on Crawford (sorry, Andrew). He's got a proven track record, but to give up Lester, Quentin, and Pedroia as possible keepers in exchange? I dunno, I'm just not sold. Andrew definitely has an impressive set of keepers now, but I just don't see any real benefit to making that trade. Without it, Andrew's second round pick would probably be good for the fourth pick in the draft, and while Bay and Teix are the sure things in the AL, let's not forget the good possibility that Sabathia and Manny return to the AL, and you never know who else.
Meanwhile, I'm psyched to have Maggs for a late pick in exchange for Papi at an early one, even if it took me until mid-afternoon on the day of the deadline to realize it was a good deal. I doubt I'll keep Buch or Salty, but if I come up short with my 5th keeper, it could happen.
Should be a great race to watch for the rest of the season.
The thing is that I didn't have room for Lester or Pedroia. Lester's K rate is too low to make him a solid keeper, and I'm not sure that Pedroia can sustain the kind of power he's shown this year. I simply had too many good keepers, and had to deal some of them. I'm still not particularly sold on Crawford, but with him and Ellsbury I can contend for the SB lead with only two players.
One other note- Quentin is 26, and Crawford is only 27. Crawford has been producing at the big league level for years, while Quentin has only just arrived.
Post a Comment