My prediction is that Mark or I will win the league this year. I know Bill has been the favorite, but there are a couple big factors now in play that will change things. Those factors are Andrew and Spencer, because now that both of their teams have been pretty much stripped of all their point scorers for the rest of the season, they're going to get passed in a lot of categories by the rest of us. Just who exactly gets the most points from this will get a big boost towards winning the league. So let's take a look at each team and see how they are set up to get points from passing Andrew and Spencer:
Bill: Behind Andrew in 3 categories, AVG, ERA, and WHIP, but is far behind and probably won't catch him in any of them. Behind Spencer in 2 categories, AVG and WHIP, and has a good chance of catching him. However, all of these are rate categories, not totals, so Spencers lack of producers remaining on his team might not really affect him there. Points: 0-2.
Caleb: Behind Andrew in 2 categories, HR and RBI, and looking at Andrew's team, is just about guaranteed to catch him in both. BUT, Caleb is already ahead of Spencer in everything. Points: 2.
Mark: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP. Just about guaranteed to catch him in SVs, kind of 50/50 on Ks, and probably will not catch him in the rate categories ERA and WHIP. Behind Spencer in 3 categories, SV, K, and WHIP. Guaranteed to catch him in SVs, probably better than 50/50 on Ks, and has a good chance of getting WHIP. Again, however, WHIP is a rate category and won't be affected as much by Spencer's trades. For Mark, whether or not he catches both in Ks depends on whether or not he decides to stick with his 6 closers (5 now that Guardado is in MIN) or put in more starting pitchers. Either way he'll catch them in SVs, but if he sticks with the closers, I also might catch him in Ws while he passes me in SVs. Ignoring the Ws and SVs races between Mark and I, his points to be gained from Spencer and Andrew are: 2-5.
Luke: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, HR, RBI, SB, and SV, and I think pretty much guaranteed to catch him in all of them. Behind Spencer in 1 category, SB, and tied in SV. Guaranteed to break the SV tie, but about zero chance of catching him in SB. Points: 4.5.
My bet would be that from all of this, the points will go like this:
Mark: 5
Luke: 4.5
Caleb: 2
Bill: 2
There are obviously a lot of other factors in play, and a lot of things that could still change, but this is gonna be a big one.
15 comments:
Very interesting. I only have 17.5 points, so I can only really offer 7.5 points up to people...but it makes your trades with me make a lot more sense as well, since you essentially stripped me of all reasonable talent.
Of course, I'm going to try as hard as I can to be the spoiler, so given the WHIP race you can see I'm also starting mostly middle releivers.
I will be cheering very hard for you and Andrew's ERAs and WHIPs.
I know my ERA and WHIP are going to take some serious hits. I've traded off most ever one of my useful pitchers, and I'm down to some marginal players. I'm against leaving roster holes, so I think you'll see my ERA and WHIP tick up some. Whether or not this will be enough to influence the standings, we'll see.
Here's my trouble with your analysis, Luke. You're only looking at points people will gain/lose from me and Spencer. It's a whole lot more important when you gain a point by taking it away from another contender, and I think this will go down to the wire between Mark and Bill. They simply have the two best teams.
Of course, that's why I said there are a lot of other factors in play. This one, however, is a lot easier to predict than predicting who's going to win the tight races between Mark and Bill, or Caleb and I.
Here's another big thing. You're right, Andrew, that it does more to pass a contender in something because the net gain is 2 points instead of just 1, but Bill and Mark aren't really in positions to pass Caleb or I in many categories and vice versa. Caleb and I have a bunch of close races with each other (R HR RBI AVG W) and Mark and Bill have a bunch of close races with each other (R ERA WHIP). Looking at the post-deadline rosters, each of these races could really go either way. If the most likely thing happens, Caleb or I will win 3/5, Mark or Bill will win 2/3. These points are toss-up points and could go either way. The points to be had from passing you and Spencer are guarantees.
There are some other close races between the 4 of us that will make a big difference. One is between Mark and Caleb in SB, which I see Mark getting. Then there are Ks between Bill and I, and I think I have the better strikeout pitchers, but the trouble is that I'm closer to the IP limit than Bill is. There are also Ws and SVs between Mark and I.
So, I see Mark and I getting the most points from passing Andrew and Spencer, and Mark getting a big point from passing Caleb in SB. After that, Mark's going to have a big advantage, so ultimately I think he is the favorite. It's going to come down to R HR RBI AVG W between me and Caleb, R ERA WHIP between Mark and Bill, K between me and Bill, and W SV between me and Mark. However, Mark and I (Mark especially) will already have such a big advantage from the other races, that Caleb or Bill would have to really take a lot of the above categories in order to pass us overall. The most likely thing in the close races between the contenders is somewhat of an even split.
It would be a lot more fun for me to digest all this analysis if my team didn't totally shit the bed last night. Damn, did not factor in the stress a 4 team stretch run would cause.
Definitely going to be a close no matter how you cut it. The WHIP and ERA races are too hard to predict in my estimation. I see big point gains for me in saves and SB. I will probably need to pass bill in R, WHIP, or ERA to win. I'll also need to pick enough spot starts to fend off the pack in wins. Can't play defense though... just gotta get the team focused on the next day. 5/36 days with no saves won't cut it...
I'll take my chances in Ks. I'm still very confident in my staff. Post ASB, Meche, Burnett, and Greinke are all striking out more than 1 batter per inning. Danks is pretty close, and Lackey is the "laggard" of the group, altohugh I think we would all agree that he is the best pitcher of the bunch. It will be tight, and I bet that someone getting shut down for a week or two, or having a few starts skipped could make the difference. Santana is looking at a pretty big bump in IP, and with hte playoffs looming they could look to rest his arm. Hopefully Beckett's injury isn't serious, but you never know. More than likely, it comes down to luck and roster management.
I also don't think that Andrew and Spencer will lose that many points. I really doubt we'll see Andrew in the mid-twenties by the end of the year, and Spencer really don't have points to lose. The funny thing is, although I stand to gain points from Spencer in WHIP, odds are in won't matter much in a race between Mark and I, as he'll gain points as well.
One thing that I think is ridiculous is the fact that Andrew isn't even fielding a full starting lineup right now. That just doesn't seem right.
Come on Andrew. Don't make me hand down sanctions! No playing like the 2007 Celtics down the stretch.
From where the standings were at the beginning of today I think Andrew will lose 7-8 points and Spencer will lose 1-4.5 points, finishing at 24-25 and 12-15.5, respectively. Take a look at the standings in each category and at who Andrew and Spencer have left on their teams and I think you'd agree, Bill.
The lineup holes were an oversight due to me miscalculating when people would clear waivers. I thought they'd clear by Sunday night so I could set my lineup for Monday, but they cleared at the exact same time as when the lineups locked. I was kind of pissed about it, but have no fear- I'll be fielding a full lineup from here on out.
Not to be an ass, but how do you think I estimated the number of points Andrew would lose without looking at the standings? Divination? I still don't see Andrew losing more than 6 points. Although a lot offensive players are weak, he still could easily be competitive in HR, with Davis, Cabrera, Longoria, and whomever happens to be hitting well at the time to fill out his OF. With all the trades guys like Luke Scott , Jack Cust, and Hinske are on waivers. Ellsbury, Inglett, and Longoria could keep him ahead of you in steals as well, as you only have Ichiro and O-Cab, who hasn't been running much this year. His batting average will certainly drop, but there is enough "intertia" with the rate stats that I'm not sure if I'll be able to catch him. The same can be said for hte pitching stats - although his ERA and WHIP wil bump up, I just don't see me or Mark catching up in ERA or (especially) WHIP.
Well to me it was so obvious that he would lose 7-8 points that I assumed you were just kind of guesstimating. I guess you're right though that he'll put up more of a fight than I thought. I'm saying 6-8 now.
For HR, Caleb and I are right behind him. Sure he's got Longoria, Davis, Cabrera, and some decent waiver wire guys. I don't see that holding up long against Dye, Thome, Ibanez, Lowell, Mora, Wells, Giambi/Hafner, and Cano, or Ordonez, Francisco, Damon, Hunter, Bradley, Rios, Peralta, and Blalock. The same goes for RBIs, although we're a bit farther behind there. I think my chances of passing Andrew in RBIs are really good, and Caleb's are more 50/50.
I don't think anyone will pass Andrew in ERA or WHIP.
Ellsbury hasn't been running as much in the 2nd half, but I suppose that could change. Maybe I need to pick up some insurance there.
Mark and I passing Andrew in saves is pretty much guaranteed.
That's 6-7 points right there, the 7th-8th one is Ks, which depends most on what Mark decides to do with his pitchers.
I didn't realize Longoria was coming back so soon.
Ya know Bill the way things have gone the last week I think you're right about Andrew. Catching him in HR, RBI, and SB is going to be harder than I thought.
Of course, no 1 outcome can verify a probability based prediction.
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