Most of the criticism directed at Daisuke seems to be centered around the fact that people think he is insanely lucky and otherwise is a mediocre pitcher. Certainly, certain metrics indicate he is indeed lucky. He has a low BABIP, strands a lot of runners, high WHIP, and has a fielding independent ERA much higher than his actual ERA.
However, I really believe that Daisuke pitches is pitching better/smarter/more effectively this season even though he is still pitching himself into jams. The main difference between this season and last is Daisuke's home run rate. Last year 25 HR were hit against him at a rate of 1.10 per 9 innings (10th worst among AL starters). This season, he has only given up 5 home runs at a rate of 0.48 per 9 innings (4th best among AL starters w/ 90 IP). Without the homeruns, the ERA has improved considerably.
I looked over his game logs to find the 12PA in which the bases were loaded against him. In 9 of the 12 situations it was with 2 outs. In all 9 of those situations he got the third out.
I believe that with runners on, Daisuke doesn't mind loading the bases knowing that he can make the next out. The batters that he has faced with two outs and the bases loaded have not been very good either, so that plays into his approach too.
Last year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP was 79 compared with an overall OPS+ of 93
This year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP is 54 compared with an overall OPS+ of 72
At some point you might have to consider that his so-called "luck" could be a function of the way he believes he can be most effective (nibbling, walking a lot of guys, i.e. not giving up extra base hits) and a higher degree of focus/determination that comes when he has runners on base. All reasons why he will be a Cy Young candidate by the end of the season.
Caleb did make a good point about K-Rod. If he breaks the Saves record, he definitely should get the Cy Young. You got to think he's the front runner right now.
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Dice-K has actually said something about this. I can't find the quote, but he essentially said that in Japan it is not uncommon to be very careful with guys you don't want to pitch to, and the walk is seen as a reasonable way of getting to the next batter that you go after. It does say something that he hasn't walked anyone in all 12 of those bases loaded situations. Still, watching him pitch, it doesn't look like he's out of the zone because he's being careful, it looks like he has no idea where his pitches are going. As a red sox fan (and fantasy owner), I'd like to think he's really just waiting until the right batter to go after them, but in reality I just don't think that's the case. And, if you think he's so good MZ, where's my trade offer? :-D
SAves are just a bogus stat though. K-Rod isn't even the best reliever in the AL this year- both Nathan and Riviera are having better seasons. There is an article about this exact point on BP today (free for everyone this week!). It's just that K-Rod has pitched in more save situations than anyone else.
Yeah, that is true. It's pretty crazy though that he has 42 saves in 45 innings of work. Why are the angels in so many close games? If not Cy Young, could he be considered for the MVP then? Just imagine what their record without him...
Just tonight there was a fairly representative K-Rod save. Up two going in to the bottom of the ninth against Baltimore, he stuck out Ramon Hernandez, followed by three hard hit balls- Adam Jones flew out to deep center, Millar Homered, then Fahey doubled, before the game finally ended with Luke Scott grounding out. I think the Angels are in a lot of close games because they don't score a ton of runs, but they have good pitching, so they end up in a lot of close ones. And they are simply not out scoring their opponents by much, so there is the blind luck factor in that they happen to keep scoring just enough to win games.
Wait, um, who's K-Rod? Is that the same guy as F-Rod??
I don't think there is an F-Rod. There was that bullpen guy who played for the Yankees a couple years ago, but I don't think he really deserved the nickname. Yeah, K-Rod is Frankie Rodriguez. I guess the K is cause he strikes out a lot of guys, unless I'm missing something.
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