To me, this one is a pretty clear trade of average for power. Kotchman hit 6 bombs in April but hasn't homered in 30+ games -- it seems like he'll end up in the 15HR range that was initially projected for him. For me, that makes him less appealing as a keeper - a late pick that hits .300 with moderate power is OK, but not huge upside. Hitting in the angels line-up helps and he should get good runs and RBI totals.
I'm hoping Thome still has one 30HR year left in him. He's historically never hit below .270 or so. You could definitely see him having a .250 year or so, but I'm not expecting him to hit .200 the rest of the way. I think this is actually a pretty good deal for me, capturing Thome's 2nd half upside with the power I need having lost Manny and with Hafner and Sheffield being totally unknown quantities at this point.
It's still a great deal for Bill, however, as it gets him exactly what he needed, which is more average. Kotchman is solid, and I've definitely helped Bill's chances pretty substantially with the two trades I've made with him this year.
6 comments:
Gotcha. I didn't get your thought process at first, but I see it now.
I know I've been on top for two months, but I'd be shocked if I can stay atop Bill's offensive powerhouse until the All-Star break.
As terrible as Thome's batting average has been, his power is still there, as he's on pace for more than 30 homeruns this year. But with the 4 teams at the bottom of batting average being all very close, a few points of batting average could make a big difference for me.
I don't think this deal is completely one-sided, but I don't get it. I think even Spencer would agree that this deals helps Bill (who seems to be the consensus favorite right now) as much as it helps him. If Bill gains 2 points in the standings from the trade and Spencer gain 2 points in the standing from the trade, how does that help?
When you are far back in the standings, some times you need to make high risk, high reward trades. If Thome regains his stroke and continues hitting with power, then Spencer wins out. That doesn't seem all that likely, but it's the kind of risk Spencer needs to take if he wants to stay at all relevant. It doesn't really matter to Spencer if he helps Bill- he's just looking to improve his team.
PS- I know I'm already irrelevant, so don't try to ply me with high risk/high reward guys. I'm just biding my time until it's time for "Crazy Mandrew's Super Duper Insano Closer Closeout™"
But doesn't it make more sense to make the high risk/high reward trade with someone lower in the standings? What's the point of improving your team if it doesn't get you any closer to winning the league? Bill benefits from Kotchman's avg and the loss of power doesn't hurt him, so there is a low risk/high reward for Bill. At the end of the day, Spencer is just as far away from being in first as he was before the trade and Bill increases his lead over everyone else.
That's a good point. It could be that Spencer wasn't able to find any other trade partners, so he had to roll the dice with Bill.
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