Lackey and Nathan for Quentin? I am at a loss. No interest in JD, Hamilton, or Sizemore but Quentin for BOTH LACKEY AND NATHAN!!! I just don't get it.
Quentin's Numbers:
.253/.342/.530 (2006)
.218/.298/.349 (2007)
.280/.393/.522 (2008)
If he can continue playing about 100% better than he has in the past, then for a 26th round pick, that is a good deal. But I seriously don't see it. I would guess that after his second half regression, Quentin will be a 10-15th round draft pick. There's just too many good outfielders to warrant a high draft pick on him. To use a keeper on a 10-15th round pick is not very useful in my opinion, making this trade a head scratcher to say the least.
14 comments:
I agree. I think Quentin will be marginal as a keeper. Certainly it's better than nothing for Andrew but if you really had those guys on the table he should have jumped on them.
Did you ever make an offer with those players? I've been negotiating with Andrew for awhile, and he clearly publicized that everyone was on the table. This isn't something that is out of the blue, like last year where Andrew suddenly decided to dump players, but didn't tell anyone about it. He's been pursuing deals with everyone, so if you think you could have made a better offer, it is your own fault for not communicating better.
I'm definitely higher on Quentin then you two are. His HR/FB percentage isn't out of line at all with his minor league numbers, or even 2006, when he was healthy for the first chunk of the season. He was a big time prospect coming up, but stalled a bit because of injuries. His BABIP is completely in line with his hitting peripherals, and he boasts an incredible 1:1 K:BB ratio. Playing half his games in US Cellular helps too.
Basically, his underlying numbers say that his current performance is sustainable. If that is the case, he could easily be a pick in the top 3 rounds next year. I'm not saying he's a better player than Hamilton or especially Sizemore, but to get 30 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI for a 26th round pick, that is a bargain.
I didn't make an offer b/c Andrew was only interested in Longoria and (later) Harden. He was looking for good value and said something along the lines of "i'm not seeing a whole lot on your team besides Longoria".
I'm not saying that Quentin is bad, but I certainly see more keeper value in Drew, Hamilton, and Sizemore.
I think part of it was on Andrew's part. In initial deals we had discussed Carl Crawford being involved, but Andrew wanted Quentin instead, because he was a "better value".
I am going to throw up
He clearly wants guys that don't burn a top draft pick. Crawford and Sizemore are 1st and 2nd rounders, respectively, Hamilton is a 12th, and Drew is a 20th whose playing above expectations right now.
My expectations for Quentin for the rest of the season probably fall somewhere between Mark's and Bill's, but I'm definitely glad he won't be on Bill's team anymore.
Mandrew, meanwhile, gets to keep Ellsbury & Quentin for 25th and 26th round picks, and Clement for a 22nd if he wants him. Throw in Adam Jones & Scott Baker and he's get a solid collection of keepers for his 22nd-26th picks.
Oh, but don't get me wrong. Bill DEFINITELY got his money's worth.
Just because someone is a "good value" doesn't make them a good keeper. Theoretically, the best 5 keepers to have would be the 5 best players in the AL regardless of the round they were drafted in.
If Andrew doesn't see Crawford as a "good value" then should we assume that he won't keep Cabrera?
Looking at who was available in the first two rounds last year, the pickings were pretty slim after Cabrera. You had Ichiro, Morneau, Hafner, Jeter, Ramirez, and Papelbon all drafted in the first 2 rounds last year. None of those players are top 6 keepers and you'd have to make a pretty good argument to include any in the top 12.
I actually agree with you Mark, but it isn't what Andrew wanted in return. I think players who kept "value" plays haven't had it work out as well as people who kept their 5 best players. Take Spencer for example, who bet on too many promising, but unproven arms. With only 5 keepers, I think you have to go with sure things.
Andrew has gone in the other direction and has put together a pretty impressive set of talented your players from teh 20th round or later. I think the key for his long term success is to have one or two of these players work out, and be 1st or 2nd round material. Ellsbury is already there, a solid 2nd half and Quentin will be in that range. Despite the lack of faith, there really aren't many 30 HR threats in the AL, especially not young players. He might have been able to do better, especially if he could have ended up with Longoria and/or Sizemore, but he's been able to instantly rebuild with a pretty impressive collection of cheap talent.
And finally, if you'd like to concede the season to me now, that's fine. I'm not nearly as certain as you guys are. We're only halfway through, and big trades or injuries could totally reshape the league. But I won't argue with you that I'm the favorite right now.
quentin a better value than crawford? now that's just silly.
It is about keeping good players. My rookie pitchers definitely blow, but I actually can't think of who else I would have kept, except for Swisher, and he's been a bust too. I guess I could have kept K-Rod, but with closers who knows. Somehow I won the league last year but keeper wise, was not in a good position, especially when Johan was traded.
I think Andrew could have done better all around. He gave up a lot and he has a ton of useful players on his team )(even still - rivera, vlad) - he should be ending up with a crawford/sizemore type player.
Here's the thing- I didn't think I'd be able to get Hamilton from your team. Looking at your line up, I didn't see how you'd be willing to part with him. That's my fault there, but yours too. I made it clear that everyone was on the table, and the only person you expressed interest in were closers, and they sure as shit weren't enough to get Hamilton. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that Bill and I live together, so the lines of communication were more open. That said, it's not my problem you didn't make it clear to me what was and what was not available. I got a deal that improved my team for the future, and I wasn't seeing a whole lot of other options. It's not like the Ortiz deal last year where I wasn't open about where things stood. Everything was in play, and you can only blame yourself for not ensuring that we were on the same page. In the end, the stakes end up being much, much higher for everyone competing for the title than they are for me, so the onus has to be on you to make sure that things are clear.
I'm pretty certain that I'd have been more interested in Hamilton than Quentin, but am I supposed to run every possible trade by you to get your approval? Come on Mark, I invested something like 15-20 hours this week alone on all this fantasy baseball stuff (you can ask Ruth if you really want to), and that was just to try to get these deals done.
I'm much closer to Bill in his assessment of Quentin than you guys are. His mL trade record was outstanding, and last year he has the shoulder injury. Anyway, this whole thing has turned out to be a lot more defensive than I meant it to be, but my basic points remain.
-We disagree on the value of Q
-There were communication issues
-You had much more to gain/lose from these trades
I suppose I should have said "I'm looking to deal Lackey, he's available and I have some offers, etc," but that's not my problem. I don't have time to give everyone updates on my various trades, nor do I think that's fair to the person I'm trading with. Bill and Caleb were the only two teams that showed interest in Lackey, and since Caleb was interested in more players I was able to substitute Shields and swing a bigger deal with him. That's what it all boiled down to- trying to get the most value out of the players I traded, and I didn't really care where.
PS- As far as Cabrera, I'm fairly certain I'll be holding on to him, though if someone wants to make me an offer everyone is on the table...
Here's the other thing. I don't think I won that trade with Bill. I don't think it was even all that close. The fact of the matter was that since in the deal with Caleb I was able to substitute Shields and no one else was offering anything for Lackey, I made the trade. Am I regretting it right now? Yes, I am. But apparently not as much as Mark.
yeah i mean, if i'm you andrew, i don't really care that much. You still positoned yourself well. I doubt Mark would have ultimately traded Hamilton, even for a lot of your best players. As I recall when I went to him with Manny he came back to me with Galarraga who he just dropped. I think anyone's natural reaction to dump trades where they aren't involved, especially to the two league leader is essentially "well fuck". So there you go.
Here's the thing. When you say that you "don't see a whole lot on my team other than Longoria" it really isn't in my interest to try to convince you that Sizemore, Hamilton or Drew is worth it for you. I figured I just valued them a lot higher than you and couldn't get fair value. You pulled Lackey and Shields off the table as they were "key components in other trades". I did say that I wanted a top tier starter, but with only Harden and Longoria as trading chips, I didn't think it was very feasible to go that way.
It really doesn't make much of a difference to you other than the fact that you didn't get as much value as you could have. It obviously matters a lot more to me because I haven't punted the season yet.
Bill certainly leveraged your fire sale much better than me. I figured that it would be better to see what went down and then try to work out a deal. I should have just made it clear that I would offer more than whatever Bill wanted. This would have at the very least driven up his offer.
Really, I am not sure why more people don't do this when they are about to pull a trigger on a deal. There is no downside and you might end up with a better offer.
To be honest, the fire-sales are becoming really the most important part of the season, which I don't like. It was a tactical error on my part b/c I should have realized if Bill got any sort of deal the season was pretty much over.
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