The Massacre Has Begun

Well half a day into the full season, Bill has 2 HRs, 2 SBs, 7 runs, and 9 RBIs. And my pitching has 7 innings pitched for a 15.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP.

Oh baby.

Manny's Moments

Is everyone else as sick and tired as me of the whole "manny doesn't hustle, manny being manny, etc." storyline played out 100+ times over every newspaper and blog every season? I mean, can you actually remember a time when Manny didn't reach base or was thrown out b/c he dogged it? It might have happened once or twice, but come on. So what if he had to sprint to make it to second base when a three legged cow could have made it standing up? Get over it.

My team's deficiencies

Clearly I underestimated my team's batting average deficiency, as they are now a less than impressive 0-10.
Things don't look to improve for about a week either. Having two games and then a week off is a complete tease.

FINALLY!

Longest offseason ever. The defense of the dynasty begins tonight (both in real and fantasy terms). Seriously, can't wait for Dice-K to take the mound. Going to try and go to bed at 10pm tonight so I can get up and watch the game at 3am. Hope those of you in Boston are going to the Cask or Game On!

BASEBAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Traded to the NL

One thought about the trading to the NL problem...it's not much of a fix, but I do think it makes sense and have read about it being used in other leagues - if you're player gets traded to the NL, then you get the right of first refusal on whoever is traded into this league. Sometimes the minor leaguers that come back won't be that interesting, but at least then Luke could have gotten Salty when he lost Texiera, etc.

Thoughts?

ABs and Innings Pitched

One thing to keep in mind about these projections is how skewed they are based on ABs and Innings Pitched. Take a look...

AB
Bill 6488
Mark 5892
Spencer 6012
Andrew 6165
Caleb 6166
Luke 6281

IP

Bill 1105
Mark 1120
Spencer 950
Andrew 1130
Caleb 1195
Luke 1105

So it's not hugely surprising that Bill ends up with significantly more hitting numbers (other than AVG, tellingly), given that he's gotten 321 more AB's then the average. Similarly, no surprise to see that I'm way behind in wins and strikeouts as I have 150 fewer innings in the projections.

Now some of this will actually happen and is based in reality, mainly that Bill's team may have more AB's because he has hitters at the top of the lineup and my young pitchers don't go deep into games. But a lot of those missed AB's and IP's from the rest of our lineups will be filled by the rest of our benches, obviously when Liriano only pitches 110 innings, I don't plan on not subbing in someone else. Ditto with BP giving Sheffield only 380 AB's.

So to really do this right, you'd want to fill most of those missing AB's with our next best replacements on the bench or in the free agent pool. The fact that it's a weekly league actually enhances the chances of missing AB's and IP's but it won't be quite as pronounced as the projections hold.

Basically the system of projections really punishes my team for being old (therefore I have fewer AB's) on the hitting side, and young on the pitching side (significantly fewer innings). Both of those are legitimate critiques of my team, but the lack of a replacement aspect to this overemphasizes both weaknesses.

Essentially, winning will be all the more satisfying this year.

Hilarious.

"Thank you Justin Morneau. You are a complete fuck head." - Mark Zocchi at the conclusion of last year's season.

And with the third overall pick, "Don't Trade Roberts" (née Lickerstore AllStars) select...

Justin Morneau

A look into the future?

Well, the rest of you had better hope that my projections are wrong, otherwise it could be a long season for everyone but the Berkeley Hoboes. A few caveats before the charts. I used Baseball Prospectus' projections for the season. Also, Andrew and I simply made our best guesses as to how the starting lineups would shake out. If there was a certain projection that was really killing one team or another, I tried to swap in another player with a more reasonable line. A lot of players, especially players who don't have a definite job, get docked playing time. Similar things happen with older players. Obviously if someone if hurt or isn't starting, they won't be in a lineup, but I can't easily account for that. Also, the BP projections regress pretty heavily to the mean. Extreme performances are hard to come by, so small differences are pretty insignificant. However, I am projected to be far enough ahead in homeruns that Mark could hit Jim Thome with a bus, AND I could continue to start him, and I'd still win HR.

I decided to run two projections - one with Brian Roberts in the AL, and one with him in the NL. Mark had better hope that the trade to the Cubs falls apart, otherwise it could be a grim season for "Don't Trade Roberts".

With Brian Roberts

Name	Score
Bill	47.5
Caleb	35.5
Andrew	35
Mark	33.5
Spencer	30
Luke	27.5

Without Brian Roberts

Name	Score
Bill	47.5
Andrew	38.5
Caleb	39
Spencer	33
Luke	28.5
Mark	23.5

Here are the full standings, for those who are interested.
Without Brian Roberts

	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG			SV	W	SO	ERA	WHIP
Bill	6	6	6	6	3		Bill	1	3.5	5	5	6
Mark	1	2	2	1	4		Mark	3	3.5	4	1	2
Spencer	4	4	3	5	6		Spencer	2	1	1	3	4
Andrew	5	5	4.5	3	5		Andrew	6	5	2	2	1
Caleb	2	3	4.5	4	2		Caleb	4.5	6	6	4	3
Luke	3	1	1	2	1		Luke	4.5	2	3	6	5

With Brian Roberts

	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG			SV	W	SO	ERA	WHIP
Bill	6	6	6	6	3		Bill	1	3.5	5	5	6
Mark	5	5	5	1	4		Mark	3	3.5	4	1	2
Spencer	3	3	2	5	6		Spencer	2	1	1	3	4
Andrew	4	4	3	3	5		Andrew	6	5	2	2	1
Caleb	1	2	3	4	2		Caleb	4.5	6	6	4	3
Luke	2	1	1	2	1		Luke	4.5	2	3	6	5

Keepers (updated to include all rounds)

Andrew:
Vlad Guerrero 2nd round
John Lackey 4th round
Fausto Carmona 19th round
Curtis Granderson 13th round
Torii Hunter 14th round
Prospect- Adam Jones

Spencer:
A-Rod 1st round
Chone Figgins 4th round
Liriano 20th round
Joba Chamberlain undrafted
Magglio Ordonez 14th round
Prospect: Clay Buccholz

Mark:
Grady Sizemore 2nd round
Brian Roberts 5th round
Victor Martinez 6th round
Erik Bedard 11th round
Delmon Young 8th round
Evan Longoria (pp)

Bill:

Carl Crawford (1st round)

CC Sabathia (4th round)

Ian Kinsler (11th round)

Nick Markakis (14th round)

BJ Upton (18th round)
Prospect: Ian Kennedy

Caleb:
1. David Ortiz
6. Justin Verlander
9. Josh Beckett
11. Alex Rios
25. Jacoby Ellsbury
Prospect Keeper: Adam Miller
Bill's got my 17th rounder.

Luke:
Carlos Pena(Undrafted)
Scott Kazmir(Round 5)
Robinson Cano(Round 7),
Carlos Guillen(Round 12), and
Pat Neshek(Round 21).

Did not submit a prospect pick.