Important Dates

2017 Champion: Patently Nuts (71.5 points)
2018 Season: March 29 - September 30

Monday, September 29, 2008

Congrats Caleb

Very nicely done. The key was the trade with Luke; the pitchers you traded for had 5 more wins than the ones you traded away.

Did we ever decide how to split the entry money?

And, more importantly, who wants to start discussing keeper trades?

Sunday, September 28, 2008

I can still win (although I really don't like my chances anymore)

Down 3 points with 1 day to go isn't the best situation to be in, but it still could come down to the wire. I need:
1. A bad start by Shields, bad enough to bump up Caleb's ERA 0.02, tying him with me. (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5)
2. Bad starts by Wakefield and Baker, bad enough to bump up Andrew's WHIP by 0.01. I'll take 0.02, but I don't want to get greedy. (+0.5)
3. I hit 2 more homeruns than Andrew today (+1).
4. I have 2 more RBI than Andrew today (+1).

Alternative, less likely ways I can pick up points are:
1. Vulture a win from a reliever, and none of Caleb's starters win (Shields), and none of Mark's starters win (Millwood, Saunders) (+1, Caleb loses 0.5, Mark loses 0.5)
2. Get a save from all 3 of my closers, while none of Caleb's get a save (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5).

I guess mostly I'm hoping for a big offensive day across the league, and that my players eek it out against Andrew's. Caleb and I are going head to head in a couple categories, but it really comes down to my team against Andrew's on the final day.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Another big day

So it looks like it will be an interesting week. I'm now 1 point behind Caleb, after passing him in ERA (thanks Edwin Jackson!), gaining half a point in WHIP from Spencer and tying then passing Andrew in HR.

I still can make up ground in HR (1 behind Caleb), RBI (2 behind Andrew), WHIP (0.01 behind Andrew - thanks Carmona!), and potentially (although much less likely), saves and wins (both 2 back on Caleb).

My team has been manic depressive all year long. If they can keep up the hot streak all that frustration will be worth it.

Holy shit! J.D. started

JD Drew actually started the game tonight, and went 1-2 with a run in tonight's game. I guess he's not done for the season, or he just wanted another shot at Carmona.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

How I can win.

At this point the winner will either be me or Caleb. Although Mark is ahead of me right now (42 to 41.5), his pitching staff hasn't been strong enough to allow him to pick up any more points. Because he currently is leading in all the offensive categories but stolen bases (where he trails me by 12), he won't be able to pick up any points there. In the pitching categories he is leading the league in wins, and well behind in WHIP (0.06) and probably far enough behind in ERA (0.13) that he won't be able to catch Spencer. 27 saves behind me and 26 strikeouts behind Spencer, he won't be able to make up any ground in either of those categories as well. In fact, now that Ziegler may have lost the Oakland closer job, and because Mark is using lots of starting pitchers this week, he may lose a point to Luke, who is one save behind him.

Caleb also is not in a good position to gain any more points, although he only needs to hang on to what he has. He might be able to gain a point on Mark in wins (3 back), but with Mark starting a full complement of starters, that will be difficult. The only other category where he could pick up a point is in RBI, where he trails me by ten, but that isn't likely to change in a week.

Now, the interesting part (at least for me). Depending on how this last week plays out, I could gain as many as 5.5 points. The key will be homeruns and RBI, which is why I snagged guys like Napoli, Cust, and Shealy for this last week. After today's outburst, which made me much happier with my team, I'm two homeruns behind Andrew, and three behind Caleb. I'm also 5 RBI behind Andrew, so with a solid power week I could be at 44.5, with Caleb losing at least one, possibly two points (to 45 or 44). I could also gain points in wins (1 behind Caleb, assuming the Royals bullpen doesn't blow it) and, surprisingly, ERA, where I trail Caleb by only 0.04, thanks to a great week by my pitchers. Gaining a point in either category, and taking one from Caleb, would be huge. Finally, I'm also tied with Spencer right now for WHIP at 1.29. I probably won't be able to catch Andrew (1.27), but an extra 0.5 points would be huge. At this point in the season, one terrible start could be the difference between winning the league, and finishing second and ending up with a shitty draft pick. Hopefully it will be an interesting final week.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Hmm.

I'm projected to finish the season with 1252 IP, I'm currently at 1194. Counting the 1.1 innings I've got tonight, that means Yahoo projects me to bring in 56 innings in th e next week. I can't figure that one out. Even if I started 6 SPs, and they all got 7 IP, I'd still need 14 innings from two RPs. As it stands, I was going to start 4 SPs, with 4 RPs, but that won't get me anywhere near the IP limit. Their math is funky, right? I'll probably finish 20-25 IP short of the limit.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Add Beltre to the list

After playing all year with a torn ligament in his thumb, Beltre is shutting it down after this weekend. That makes 1B (Kotchman), 2B (Kinsler), 3B (Beltre), OF (Crawford), OF (Manny), OF ( Quentin), SP (Haren), and SP (Sabathia). BJ Upton also has a quad injury right now, and has been held out of the last 5 games, Sherill hasn't pitched in a month, and Michael Young has broken bones in his right hand, and may be shut down soon as well.

It was said it would take an incredible amount of bad luck for me not to win. I think I've managed to cover that. Thank God football has started, although the Brady injury is worse than all of these injuries and trades combined.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Woah, what happened to the standings? Is Caleb now the team to beat??

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Mystery player

This player is hitting .333/.378/.505 for the season, and an incredible .366/.415/.583 since the All-Star break. He's hit just about everywhere in the lineup - leading off, in the 2 hole, and even clean-up. He's on pace for a 20/20 season, and also plays good defense at an up the middle position for a team that is fighting for a playoff spot, yet somehow doesn't have much MVP buzz.

I think Dustin Pedroia deserves a little more credit than he has been getting.

More football hilarity

Rudi Johnson called Tatum Bell a "shyster" and "conniving" after Bell stole Rudi's duffel bags in the Lions' locker room Monday.

"Underwear, socks, credit cards and money. He left my money clip with no money in it," said Johnson, who had $200 stolen. "He should've taken the clip, too. It's quite stupid if you ask me." Rudi says he won't call the police

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Batting average

Although I was joking in my last post, batting average is still more volitile that I would have expected. In the last week by team has added 4 points of average, making it possible (although still not particularly likely) for me to catch some of the folks ahead of me. Dustin Pedroia, Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu, and Billy Butler are all hitting .400, or just about. Out of curiousity, I took a look at the AB and H totals for my team. Even at this stage of the season, a monster day (20/40) can raise a teams average by .002, and a really hot stretch (10/10) can raise it by a point. Hard to believe after almost 6,000 at bats that is the case, but average still will move up and down. Of course, it is easier to bump your average up than it is to drive it down, but batting average might end up being an interesting category after all.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

If Caleb goes...

0 for his next 152, then we are tied in batting average. Caleb, can you hear the footsteps?

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Prediction

My prediction is that Mark or I will win the league this year. I know Bill has been the favorite, but there are a couple big factors now in play that will change things. Those factors are Andrew and Spencer, because now that both of their teams have been pretty much stripped of all their point scorers for the rest of the season, they're going to get passed in a lot of categories by the rest of us. Just who exactly gets the most points from this will get a big boost towards winning the league. So let's take a look at each team and see how they are set up to get points from passing Andrew and Spencer:

Bill: Behind Andrew in 3 categories, AVG, ERA, and WHIP, but is far behind and probably won't catch him in any of them. Behind Spencer in 2 categories, AVG and WHIP, and has a good chance of catching him. However, all of these are rate categories, not totals, so Spencers lack of producers remaining on his team might not really affect him there. Points: 0-2.

Caleb: Behind Andrew in 2 categories, HR and RBI, and looking at Andrew's team, is just about guaranteed to catch him in both. BUT, Caleb is already ahead of Spencer in everything. Points: 2.

Mark: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP. Just about guaranteed to catch him in SVs, kind of 50/50 on Ks, and probably will not catch him in the rate categories ERA and WHIP. Behind Spencer in 3 categories, SV, K, and WHIP. Guaranteed to catch him in SVs, probably better than 50/50 on Ks, and has a good chance of getting WHIP. Again, however, WHIP is a rate category and won't be affected as much by Spencer's trades. For Mark, whether or not he catches both in Ks depends on whether or not he decides to stick with his 6 closers (5 now that Guardado is in MIN) or put in more starting pitchers. Either way he'll catch them in SVs, but if he sticks with the closers, I also might catch him in Ws while he passes me in SVs. Ignoring the Ws and SVs races between Mark and I, his points to be gained from Spencer and Andrew are: 2-5.

Luke: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, HR, RBI, SB, and SV, and I think pretty much guaranteed to catch him in all of them. Behind Spencer in 1 category, SB, and tied in SV. Guaranteed to break the SV tie, but about zero chance of catching him in SB. Points: 4.5.

My bet would be that from all of this, the points will go like this:
Mark: 5
Luke: 4.5
Caleb: 2
Bill: 2

There are obviously a lot of other factors in play, and a lot of things that could still change, but this is gonna be a big one.

Monday, August 25, 2008

The Perfect Day?

As of 6:50 PM I am 0/13 across my team. With only Delmon Young and Denard Span to go a truly perfect Pete Rose Legacy O fer day is finally in reach. Keep checking this blog posts for exciting updates.

Trade Winners and Losers

I don't have time to do a full analysis but off the top of my head:

Winners:

Bill - With good value in the first round next year, losing crawford was not a big blow, and Quentin, with another HR today, will at least be pretty good next year with a waiver wire pick up. Meanwhile, he strengthened his position for this year, which he needed with all the injuries.

Andrew - Andrew will now be keeping Cabrera, Crawford, and Longoria, just to start. That's a pretty nasty start to a line-up. Oh, and he also has Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Brandon Morrow. Drew should be in great shape next year.

Slight Winner:

Mark - This was a trade Mark needed to make but Longoria is arguably the best keeper in the game. It should make for a VERY interesting end of the year race, but things would look a lot better if he had managed to block andrew's second trade with Bill. As it is, MZ is still well positioned keeper wise with granderson and sizemore, but can only watch in pain if this year's title slips away and has to watch longoria hit 45 HRs next year.

Caleb - Again, good value in the first round next year (Texiera, Bay) so i like the ordonez trade for him (even though I pulled the trigger). I learned the hard way about pitcher keepers, but halladay and kazmir are much more of a sure bet than frickin clay buccholz. Doesn't have the killer keeper that Bill or Andrew has, but looking better for next year.

Loser:

Spencer - I just really wanted Ortiz on my team. But aside from that, while Andrew made 4 or 5 dump trades, I had to content myself with getting delmon young, and brandon wood. Not exactly laying the groundwork for a return to glory. The bottom line was that Andrew had the players to trade, while i had total crap like Sheffield and Paul Konerko. What an utter disaster of a season.


???????

Youuk - I can't decipher all of the trades Youuuk made - at first I thought he was positioning himself for keepers but then he traded me for carlos pena? He added a lot of talent for this year, some good keepers (Beckett, Cano) - so I'm not sure how to figure it all out. But he's still very much in it this year, so he's a dark horse for taking the title this year.

Monday, August 11, 2008

And Bill loses crawford...

...not that Bill needs him given his lead in steals, but just another blow to the juggernaut.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Holy shit...

Favre's a Jet. How weird is that?

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Back to fantasy

I think things just got more interesting. Bill loses arguably his best starter (CC), and nice piece of his line-up (Kotchman) and now one of his best outfielders.

Everyone else essentially lost nothing. If anything can make it a real race, the MLB trading deadline certainly tried.

Happy Trade Deadline Day

For some reason, it's one of my favorite days of the year. I'll be checking SOSH & ESPN every 3 minutes until dinner time.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Sorry, Bill

Looks like Kotchman's heading to the NL for Teixeira.

In the non-fantasy baseball realm, I think this makes the Angels the best team in the AL.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Lester?!

Who IS this Jon Lester? I have to admit, after last-season and the beginning of this one, I never thought this guy would have front of the rotation ability. Now he's pitching circles around Buccholz and the stopper in the rotation. The pitcher I watched last night has no relation to the guy I saw last year with control problems who would never get through 5 innings. For every pitcher the Sox organization seems to have screwed up (See Hansen, Craig and Del Carmen, Manny) they somehow got this one right. Incredible turn-around in a year and making the lack of a move on Johan look a whole lot better.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Daisuke for Cy Young

Most of the criticism directed at Daisuke seems to be centered around the fact that people think he is insanely lucky and otherwise is a mediocre pitcher. Certainly, certain metrics indicate he is indeed lucky. He has a low BABIP, strands a lot of runners, high WHIP, and has a fielding independent ERA much higher than his actual ERA.

However, I really believe that Daisuke pitches is pitching better/smarter/more effectively this season even though he is still pitching himself into jams. The main difference between this season and last is Daisuke's home run rate. Last year 25 HR were hit against him at a rate of 1.10 per 9 innings (10th worst among AL starters). This season, he has only given up 5 home runs at a rate of 0.48 per 9 innings (4th best among AL starters w/ 90 IP). Without the homeruns, the ERA has improved considerably.

I looked over his game logs to find the 12PA in which the bases were loaded against him. In 9 of the 12 situations it was with 2 outs. In all 9 of those situations he got the third out.

I believe that with runners on, Daisuke doesn't mind loading the bases knowing that he can make the next out. The batters that he has faced with two outs and the bases loaded have not been very good either, so that plays into his approach too.

Last year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP was 79 compared with an overall OPS+ of 93
This year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP is 54 compared with an overall OPS+ of 72

At some point you might have to consider that his so-called "luck" could be a function of the way he believes he can be most effective (nibbling, walking a lot of guys, i.e. not giving up extra base hits) and a higher degree of focus/determination that comes when he has runners on base. All reasons why he will be a Cy Young candidate by the end of the season.

Caleb did make a good point about K-Rod. If he breaks the Saves record, he definitely should get the Cy Young. You got to think he's the front runner right now.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

This is Awesome

"The laughter, the celebrations; I’m still going to get fined and still going to have Cincinnati on the edge of its seat," Johnson said. "I am going to mature in some way, I just don’t know how it will be."

Could it be?




Just in case nobody checks the standings page today, I want to preserve this sure to be fleeting moment.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Slow discussion these days...

...what's a matter? Everyone given up? Bill is only 2 measely points ahead of MZ right now! Show some fight people!

New Pete Rose Legacy Goal - 20 points by end of season.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Derby Results

Team Home Runs
Don't Trade Roberts 66
Berkeley Hoboes 0
Dusty's Base Cloggers 0
Mandrew & the Vorpies 0
Yooouuuk! 0
Pete Rose Legacy 0

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Over?

Entering the all star break I have 5 players on the DL, my best pitcher is now playing for the Cubs, I have received a whole 7 saves from my premier closer, and my pitching rotation would only make the Texas Rangers jealous.

Over?

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Another one bites the dust...

Another AL pitcher goes down, with McGowan now out for the season with a torn rotator cuff. In the last week we've lost two aces: CC Sabathia (he doesn't like the periods in his first name anymore) and Rich Hardin, the guy who would have replaced Hardin in the rotation (Gaudin), and McGowan, a guy who I thought would turn it around based on his second half last year, and his underlying numbers. Pitching just got even thinner, and could continue to do so, if the Jays decide to dump any more pitchers.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

The Market is Open

At long last, the Pete Rose Legacy has given up on their season. It was an embarrassing fall from the top, but no need to prolong the agony. The time to dump is upon us.

Anyone and everyone on my team is available. Although I will likely not trade A-Rod, everyone else, including prospective keepers, are available. I will obviously be looking for 2-3 high quality keepers in return.

Potential value-adds to YOUR fantasy roster include Paul Konerko, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins, Carlos Gomez, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, AND the incredible Travis Hafner.

On the pitching side, where you guys really need help battling the big bill machine, I have Verlander (lights out over the past month), Ducshererererere (leading the league in ERA), Dice-K (worst fantasty pitcher to watch..ever), Joba, Buccholz, and Liriano.

Available closers include Huston Street, Troy Percival, and Masa Kobayashi.

Least likely for me to give up are A-Rod, Buccholz, and Chamberlain. Everyone else including Maggs are very available.

Let's see some offers.

Harden to Cubs

It looks like Harden and Gaudin are heading to the Cubs for 4 players. I suppose this helps Bill's chances with Mark losing a key SP, and it also makes me wish I had sat on my SPs a little longer. I think the market just went straight through the roof.

Monday, July 7, 2008

LaPorta and the Like

LaPorta, Bryson, and Zach Johnson will not be available as roster additions once the trade for CC goes through. I'll try to stay on top of the trades from AL-NL and post a list either on the blog or the yahoo site of the blacklisted players.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Daisuke

Not to be all SOSH reactionary on this blog, but I'm beginning to be very concerned about Daisuke. Simply put, he's walking way, way too many batters, and this is something that dates back to last year. Post ASB, he walked 4.5/9. This year, he's walking 5.7/9 innings, which isn't anywhere close to a reasonable number, and doesn't include the 4 walks he has had in under 2 innings tonight. I haven't had a chance to watch many of his starts lately, none since he came back from injury, so I can't comment on whether or not it is a matter of trusting his stuff, but unless he can start throwing strikes he's hurting the team by being unable to work deep into games. Hopefully this is simply rust from being on the DL, but the walk rate and K:BB ratio say that he's headed for boatloads of trouble.

My boys all grown up...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVwHtJ8Tq6g

I wonder what Fire Joe Morgan would have to say about this...

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Another kick in the pants...


Hey mzpanther,

Sorry, but the waiver request you made in Durham Plays for Keeps has been denied.

Player Dropped: Crosby, Bobby
Player Added : Davis, Chris

This happened for the following reason:

There was another manager with a higher waiver priority requesting the player.



When I read this I didn't even have to guess who that other manager was... It could only be one.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Jacoby's first at-bat

on Andrew's team comes against James Sheilds, of all people.

And it's....a ground out. I win the trade!

I have discovered the problem

I have discovered that Gary Sheffield has been telling other players on my team how great it is to be on the DL. Apparently he is very convincing.

"I don't want to take a chance," said Ordonez, third Tiger this month to go on the DL due to an oblique muscle pull. "You know when it is not going to be OK, and it is going to be a miracle if you feel better. "Sheff (Gary Sheffield) told me, 'You've got to take care of it.' "

Interleague play is over.

The AL spanked the NL once again, 149-102.

The Royals went 13-5, and the Mariners managed to play .500 ball.

Red Sox pitchers, by the way, were 0-25 at the plate, with one strained back.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Really?

Lackey and Nathan for Quentin? I am at a loss. No interest in JD, Hamilton, or Sizemore but Quentin for BOTH LACKEY AND NATHAN!!! I just don't get it.

Quentin's Numbers:

.253/.342/.530 (2006)
.218/.298/.349 (2007)
.280/.393/.522 (2008)

If he can continue playing about 100% better than he has in the past, then for a 26th round pick, that is a good deal. But I seriously don't see it. I would guess that after his second half regression, Quentin will be a 10-15th round draft pick. There's just too many good outfielders to warrant a high draft pick on him. To use a keeper on a 10-15th round pick is not very useful in my opinion, making this trade a head scratcher to say the least.

When is it time to give up?


So we're officially at the mid-way point of the season now and I have 7 points more than the minimum.
As a fun meaningless analysis I took the current standings and assumed that every team does the exact average of the cumulative first half performances....except for mine. MY team, instead, does the absolute best of all the first half numbers across the board...above are the results.



I have no shot. Even in that dream scenario, the Bill juggernaut would still beat me. And now that's he's zeroed in further with the Andrew dumping....odds are not good he'll be performing at the "average" (which I of course helped bring down significantly) .


But, my friends, there is still time to dream. Like Boston down 3-0 in the ALCS, already the laughing stock of the entire league, the AAA Legacy climbs on. And slowly but surely, the AAA is getting the call. And hitting the majors.


So yes, it is time to announce the return of the storied franchise Pete Rose Legacy. The AAA Legacy is no longer. And the Pete Rose Legacy does not lose. It stages improbable second half come backs. And it also has sex with the prom queen.


You have all been warned.






The Fantasy Value All Stars

I thought it would be interesting, now that we're at the halfway point of the season, to take a look at players who have been top contributors at various positions, but weren't too highly rated coming into the season. Overall, there seem to be a lot more under-performers than guys who are easily outpacing expectations. Definitely a down year fantasy-wise for the AL, even if that doesn't show up in interleague play.

C - AJ Pierzynski. 23rd round. Dusty's Base Cloggers. He might be an asshole, and I don't think anyone expects him to keep his performance up (not even his own manager, who just traded for Napoli), but Pierzynski has been the #2 fantasy catcher in the AL this year. Mauer is number 1, but with him going in the 3rd round, it is hard to call him a "value pick".

1B - Kevin Youkilis. 10th round. Don't Trade Roberts. A tough call between Giambi (undrafted) and Youkilis here, but when you get the #1 1B in the 10th round, the same round as huge busts such as Jhonny Peralta, Phil Hughes, Kelvim Escobar, and Ryan Garko, there is definitely some good value there.
Honorable mention: Giambi, Casey Kotchman (AAA Legacy, 19th round)

2B - Dustin Pedroia. 9th round. Mandrew and the VORPIES. He hasn't been as good of a "real" baseball player this year, with a pretty substantial decrease in OBP, Pedroia has been a great fantasy player this year, easily on pace to top HR and SB numbers from last year. Although he doesn't quite count, as he was a keeper, even I didn't think Ian Kinsler (11th round) was going to be this good. According to Yahoo, he has been the best fantasy player in the AL, and is on pace for a massive 25 HR, 40 SB season.
Honorable mention: Kinsler, Jose Lopez (Mandrew and the VORPIES, undrafted)

3B - Joe Crede. 17th round. Dusty's Base Cloggers. Thin pickings at 3B. Although Huff has been better according to Yahoo, he's hardly played for anyone's team, so I have to go with Crede.

SS - None. It seems like every shortstop who has played regularly for a team has underperformed. Peralta hits tons of home runs, but has a brutal average. Jeter, O-cab, and Michael Young are all having down years. Yuniesky Betancourt has been on fire since being traded (.327 average for Spencer), but he still is the 10th best AL SS overall. In a 6 team league, that isn't so hot.

OF - Josh Hamilton. 12th round. Don't Trade Roberts. Even though he's been nicked up a bit the last few days, Hamilton has been on pace for a historic season. Hitting 19 homeruns, and already driving in 76. Everyone else in the league needs to hope he makes like Morneau in the second half of 2007, so Mark can lose the league and call him a fuckhead.

OF - JD Drew. 20th round. Don't Trade Roberts. Mark's team shows up again. JD Drew has been unbelievable since Ortiz went down, incredibly outpacing whatever run production you'd expect out of Papi. A massive June has put Drew as the 5th best outfielder. Tough to beat with a 20th round pick.

OF - Carlos Quentin. Undrafted. Berkeley Hoboes. Despite a slow couple of weeks to start June, Quentin has been an offensive force, with 50+ runs and RBI, 17 homeruns, and even a few steals. He could be the offensive waiver wire player of the year.

Honorable mention: OF was actually full of bargains this year. All the fantasy previews kept saying that OF was shallower this year than in years past, but the performances of players like Milton Bradley, David Murphy, and the once-cut Jose Guillen have meant that talent has always been available on the waiver wire.

SP - Cliff Lee (undrafted, Dusty's Base Cloggers), Shawn Marcum (22nd round, YOUUUUKKK), Justin Duscherer (undrafted, Pete Rose Legacy), John Danks (undrafted, Berkeley Hoboes), Rich Harden (14th round, Don't Trade Roberts). Coming into this season, if this was your staff, I think everyone would have advised you to give up right now, and simply not bother paying attention. They all started off amazingly well, and have hit a few rocky patches here and there, but they've been top 15 starters this year. Considering anyone could have easily assembled this staff for peanuts, that is pretty impressive.

RP - George Sherill (15th round, Berkeley Hoboes), Joakim Soria (12th round, Berkeley Hoboes), Troy Percival (16th round, AAA Legacy). Unsurprisingly, bargains can be found at RP. Sherrill is #2 in the AL in saves at 26, and Soria isn't too far behind at #5 with 21. Percival, despite his hamstring problems and recent ineffectiveness has still saved 18 games, more than much more highly rated closers such as Huston Street (9th round), JJ Putz (3rd round), or Bobby Jenks (8th round). Maybe those analysts are on to something when they say don't pay for saves.

Anyone want to step up and put together an all bust team? Despite my current lead, I imagine you'll be seeing more than a few of my draftees in there.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Completely off topic.

When did we decide was the decision deadline for Football keepers again?

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Swelling, Spasms, and Babies

I can't figure any of this out anymore.
  • Matsui has his knee drained last Wednesday but is in the starting lineup Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Then, after a day off Monday, his knee (and now a stiff neck) kept him out of the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday. He "may be available for pinch-hitting duties". WhooHoo.
  • In Monday's pre-game warm ups, Youkilis gets hit by a ball in the eye and misses that game and the next.
  • Hamilton injuries himself in the 4th inning of Tuesday's game and is now the dreaded "day to day".
  • Not to be outdone, "The Mariners confirmed that Erik Bedard won't make his start Wednesday because of back spasms."
Just fantastic.
  • Oh yeah, Bartlett will miss Weds and Thurs games for the birth of his first child.

Monday, June 23, 2008

My AL Balot

Today I get an email from redsox.com imploring me to vote for Varitek, only 45,000 votes behind Joe Mauer. I hate the fact that the All Star starters are dominated by undeserving players from large market teams and Varitek would represent the worst of that kind.

Varitek .230/.308/.392
Mauer .331/.417/.437

This isn't even close. The fact that the Red Sox have 1.5 billion fans verses the Twins 325 means that, with a push, Varitek probably will overtake Mauer.

Pedrioa over Kinser is another joke:

Pedrioa: .282/.329/.410
Kinsler: .305/.362/.502

Here is my ballot with the leader in the parenthesis.

C Joe Mauer (Mauer)
1B Kevin Youkilis (Youkilis)
2B Ian Kinsler (Pedrioa)
3B Miguel Cabrera* (Rodriguez)
SS Orlando Cabrera (Jeter)
OF Josh Hamilton (Ramirez)
OF J.D. Drew** (Hamilton)
OF -None- (Ichiro)
DH Aubry Huff (Ortiz -inj-, Matsui)
Write-in: Carlos Quentin

But the biggest joke of all is the fact that Carlos Quentin is not even on the ballot (.280/.392/.533) with the 6th best OPS in the AL. I mean, you gotta think at least 95% of the votes are over the Internet, right? So why the fuck can't they have added him, like, two months ago?

*I would vote for A-Rod here, his number are deserving, but I cannot vote for the guy. Just can't.
**Milton Bradley is listed as an OF on the Ballot, which he isn't. Bradley has better numbers than Drew and Quentin, but it's hard for me to vote for a guy for a position that he doesn't play.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Highlights from Game 6

Before I completely turn my attention back to baseball (Christ, we're 75 games into the baseball season and basketball is just ending) I wanted to share some of the highlights of Game 6.
  • Paula Cole ("Where Have all the Cowboys Gone") sang the National Anthem. You literally could not hear her by the end the crowd was so loud.
  • Celtics introductions - The Celtic's intro is so freaking cool live. It's madness with everyone screaming along with KG and Paul Pierce on the jumbotron.
  • Crowd chanting De-Fense . . De-Fense . .every defensive possession, all game long, even when up by 40.
  • Ray Allen, Posey, and House draining threes it felt like on every shot (looking at the box score, House was 1-5, but for some reason I don't remember those 4 misses).
  • Thinking to myself this game is not over... this game is not over... this game is not over. It wasn't until we entered the fourth quarter up by 29, I was like... Ok, even if the Celtics don't score this quarter, they still have a good chance at winning.
  • You got Rondo'd! You don't get a good appreciation of his speed watching on TV. Sitting up in the balcony, you get a better perspective of how quickly he moves with and without the ball.
  • Na, Na, Na, Na... Hey, Hey, Hey... Goodbye. That was the loudest crowd cheer I've ever heard at a sporting event. Hands down. I hope it translated on TV.
  • Booing David Stern. This was so satisfying. Don't even get me started on how messed up the finals schedule was. Having 2 days off between home games and only 1 between away games, NO Friday night or Saturday night games, 9:15pm start times...etc. Despite what I've read, I really don't think it had anything to do with the referee scandal. I mean, we had just won the Championship, right?
  • The crowd breaking out yet another De-Fense chant during Doc's speech on the Garden floor after he mentions how the season started with defense. Couldn't hear the rest of his speech, but I am sure it was pretty awesome. I also missed Pierce dancing on his chair to Gino - I'm hoping to find a youtube clip of that sometime.
  • So yeah, all in all a good time. The riot police were out in force outside the Garden. It was kind of funny. They would all of a sudden just march forward in unison without warning for about 10 steps and then stop. During one of their marches, I got a bunch of people singing the Darth Vader entrance music as we took pictures of them and retreated. Good times...
Finally, make sure you check out this locker room video of Big Baby - wtf.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

The Injury Train Continues

Add Konerko to the list. Then I pick up Coco, and 2 days later he has a hand injury. unreal.

Monday, June 16, 2008

I heart Ichiro

Playing on this team and seeing what is happening around me, I feel that something is beginning to fall apart. But, if I was not in this situation, and I was objectively watching what just happened this week, I would probably be drinking a lot of beers and booing. -- Ichiro

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Everything must go!!!!111!!!!1

So my team is bad, and it's time for me to come to grips with this fact and start looking at next year. I'm opening up my roster- pretty much anyone is available, an I'm looking for good to great value in keepers. I already have some offers in on some players, but I won't be making any trades until the end of this week at the earliest.

Andrew

The last two weeks in not so brief

First of all, I'd like to say the Celtics are ridiculously good. Their defense in the 3rd quarter the other night was unbelievable, and Doc Rivers finally used a small lineup of shooters to take advantage of the Laker's lack of a physical big man. It must be an exciting time to be in Boston.

But now on to the baseball. To keep the updates at even intervals, the stats and standings are as of the morning of Friday, June 13. I don't have at bat totals for this week, and I think I'm going to give up on keeping track of them.

As usual, we'll start off with the current standings, and the change in the standings in the last two weeks.

Although the overall standings haven't changed for about a month (at least for the days I'm doing the updates, I missed the brief moment I was in first place), there were big changes in the point totals this week. Spencer has plummeted to below 20, and Luke has fallen out of striking distance from first for the first time since I started keeping track of the stats. The biggest winner of the last two weeks was clearly Andrew, who gained 5 of his 6 points in pitching stats.

Andrew was the big beneficiary of blow ups from my and Caleb's pitching staffs, with each of us gaining a quarter point on our ERAs, and Caleb adding 0.05 to his WHIP, allowing Andrew to gain three points from the overall leaders.
Overall, my offense continued to hit extremely well, leading in R, HR, and RBI, with Manny, Swisher, and David Murphy leading the way. Caleb also had a huge two weeks in stolen bases, swiping 8 more bags than anyone else, however, because my lead was so large to begin with, he wasn't able to gain any points.
Batting average was also a big mover this last week, with Caleb and I gaining points, at the expense of Luke. Unlike the pitching stats, where the change was driven by poor performance, batting average changed because both Caleb and I had big offensive weeks - I added 10 points to my batting average, while he added 9. Here is a chart of batting average for the last two weeks.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Week in Brief?

C'mon Bill!!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Anyone watching the game?

And can they tell me how bad Ellsbury's wrist injury is? With Coco ejected, the outfield D went from spectacular (from LF to RF: Jacoby, Coco, Drew), to horrendous (LF to RF: C. Carter [yikes], JD Drew, Youkilis). The thought of Youkilis as a RF is terrifying. And everything I read about Carter said his real position was probably DH. Christ. Hopefully Coco won't get suspended for too long, and Ellsbury will be OK in a week or so.

Thome for Kotchman

To me, this one is a pretty clear trade of average for power. Kotchman hit 6 bombs in April but hasn't homered in 30+ games -- it seems like he'll end up in the 15HR range that was initially projected for him. For me, that makes him less appealing as a keeper - a late pick that hits .300 with moderate power is OK, but not huge upside. Hitting in the angels line-up helps and he should get good runs and RBI totals.

I'm hoping Thome still has one 30HR year left in him. He's historically never hit below .270 or so. You could definitely see him having a .250 year or so, but I'm not expecting him to hit .200 the rest of the way. I think this is actually a pretty good deal for me, capturing Thome's 2nd half upside with the power I need having lost Manny and with Hafner and Sheffield being totally unknown quantities at this point.

It's still a great deal for Bill, however, as it gets him exactly what he needed, which is more average. Kotchman is solid, and I've definitely helped Bill's chances pretty substantially with the two trades I've made with him this year.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

That's just sad...

"Although [Vernon] Wells has been on the DL for 22 days, he still leads the Jays in RBIs with 24."

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Week in brief



No big long update this time, just the tables. Mark gained lots of points this week, Spencer and Andrew were the big losers. Mark also pitched a ton of innings, helping him close the gap in projected innings considerably.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Another weekly update

I don't have the full stats with me today (I left my thumb drive at home), but I did put together a table that is kind of interesting.
The at-bats are starting to even out, except for Spencer, who is about 200 AB behind everyone else. If you're wondering why my average is so low, I'm in the middle of the pack for number of hits, and 50 at bats ahead. So, I just need all of your teams to go 0/40 for the next couple of days.

Thanks to Casilla being on the DL and Andrew plugging in Octavio Dotel into his starting lineup, the projected IP are starting to come down. Although Andrew is currently in 4th place for strikeouts, the table shows that he simply didn't draft enough high strikeout pitchers, and Mark and Spencer could end up passing him. Mark is also starting to catch up in projected IP. Of course, he's in a bit of a weird position projection wise as all of his starters pitch on the same day. His projected IP will shoot up, then slowly decrease, and then spike up again, so I'm not sure what day would probide the most accurate projection, but I only update the IP, AB, and H counts on Fridays, so we're just going to go with that.

At the current pace, I'll end up leading Ks. Of course, that could easily change now that I don't have Matsuzaka, but my K/9 is starting to pull away. Assuming that Matsuzaka isn't hurt for a significant period of time (and looking now, he just went on the 15 day DL, good thing Clay is ready to come back), and Spencer can catch up in IP, Spencer could come from behind and give Caleb some trouble in strikeouts.

Also, I can't quite figure out why Luke is leading in Ks right now, but doesn't lead in projected Ks without the IP limit. It must have something to do with the way Yahoo calculates the projected IP limits.

Do yourself a favor and check out...

this amazing video of mariah carey throwing out the first pitch at a game...


http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_05_25_baseballblog_archive.html#6984130545438318398

Projected Standings

We are now about 1/3 through the season and it's high time I released the updated projections. These projections are not perfect, and I will discuss the main flaws I find in them a bit later. For now, let's take a look at the current standings:



Batting
Pitching

Rank
Team
1. Dusty'sBaseCloggers 5 5.5 4 5 3 5 6 4 5 5 47.5
2. Berkeley Hoboes 6 5.5 5 6 1 3.5 5 5 4 2 43
3. YOOOUUUK! 3 4 2 2 4 6 2 6 6 6 41
4. Don't Trade Roberts! 4 3 6 4 5.5 3.5 1 1 2 1 31
5. Mandrew&the VORPIES 2 2 3 1 2 2 4 2 3 4 25
6. AAA Legacy 1 1 1 3 5.5 1 3 3 1 3 22.5

Caleb has had a great start to the season. There are no major deficiencies in his team, his lowest category is a 3 in average. Spencer on the other hand has been decimated by injuries and has fallen to the bottom of many of the counting categories.

The projections are based on everyone's roster set this week. Any players that are on the DL are not counted in these projections. Because future injuries cannot be accounted for, I chose to leave the current injured players out for balance. Also, especially in some of the weaker positions, starting rosters change weekly. This week I am using Jason Bartlett, next week it may be a different free agent. In any event, I leave it up to you to decide how these intangibles will affect the projections.

Without further ado, here are the Projected Standings:


R HR RBI SB AVG W SV SO ERA WHIP TOTAL
Caleb 4 3 3 4 2 5 6 4 5 5 41
Luke 3 1 2 1 5 6 3 6 6 6 39
Bill 5 6 5 6 1 4 1 5 4 2 39
Mark 6 5 6 3 6 3 4 2 2 1 38
Spencer 2 2 1 5 4 1 5 3 1 4 28
Andrew 1 4 4 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 25


Plus/Minus from Current Standings:


R HR RBI SB AVG W SV SO ERA WHIP TOTAL
Caleb -1 -2.5 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -6.5
Luke 0 -3 0 -1 1 0 1 0 0 0 -2
Bill -1 0.5 0 0 0 0.5 -4 0 0 0 -4
Mark 2 2 0 -1 0.5 -0.5 3 1 0 0 7
Spencer 1 1 0 2 -1.5 0 2 0 0 1 5.5
Andrew -1 2 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0


Luke comes in strong in the pitching categories, nabbing 27 of the possible 30 points, but still not enough to beat Caleb. Caleb is projected to fall the hardest over the last 2/3 of the season, but still has enough momentum to carry the lead through to the end.

Bill also sees a sharp drop, mostly from saves. Picking up Wheeler could help if Sherrill's production comes back to earth. The biggest absolute change is from my team, projected to gain 7 points. With 25 of the possible 30 points in offensive categories, I could make a run at the lead if the bats can heat up and if Putz picks up the pace.

Also to note: As Bill pointed out in an earlier post, innings pitched should even out by the end of the season. This will help people's counting stats who are behind in innings and may or may not help the ERA and WHIP. It's hard to know how that will work as people insert more 6th starters into their rotation as the season wears on. It's pretty interesting that there is absolutely no point movement in ERA.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

I am sick of the weekly league

Yesterday, Monday, the day after we set our weekly line-ups, three things happened:

1) Gary Sheffield pulled an oblique muscle after 2AB's in his game vs. the angels.

2) Scoscia revealed that Figgins may have to go on the DL.

3) Wedge revealed that Hafner might have to go on the DL.


Now all of these are injury prone players, but it's total BS that I will now be missing another week's worth of AB's because of the timing of this news. I know we all have to deal with it, but it doesn't necessarily even out. I guess the lesson is that injury prone players hurt you even more in this type of league. But this seriously must be the 9th or 10th time this season someone has gotten hurt (or revealed they won't be coming back as planned) on Monday or Tuesday (Ellis and Kendrick being 2 other recent examples).

Friday, May 23, 2008

Week ending 5/23

Well, it is Friday, so it is time for another weekly update. I have some AB, H, and IP stats for this week, but only for Monday through Friday. They didn't end up being particularly meaningful (e.g. thanks to scheduling quirks, Mark ended up with 3 2/3 IP in that stretch), so I didn't include them in this post. You'll probably see them next week.

Again, let's start with the current standings.

Pretty big changes from last week, with Caleb picking up a ton of points, and Youk and Spencer dropping a bit. Here are the weekly changes in points.


Looking at the raw weekly stats, Caleb had a huge week in saves, and one of the top performances offensively. Not a ton of strikeouts for him, but the three folks below him (Andrew, Spencer, and Mark) didn't have a ton more K's either. However, it is starting to look like Youk!!! and I are starting to pull away a bit in strikeouts.




As Spencer pointed out in a post last week, one of the key things to keep an eye on for strikeouts is IP. Right now, Caleb, Andrew, and Luke are all projected to be over the IP limit. I'm right around the IP limit, and Mark and Spencer are well under the projected IP limit, due to injuries. However, unlike AB, you can catch up in IP with the use of 2 start pitchers, and fewer relievers. As Spencer and possibly Mark catch up in IP, Caleb may have to keep an eye on strikeouts, possibly switching to high K rate middle relivers, which would help his ratios as well. Although it may still be a bit early in the season to worry about that.

Another interesting thing this week was that all of a sudden everyone seemed to be stealing a lot more bases. The return of Figgins couldn't have come at a much better time for Spencer, as he had Caleb pass him in SB this week, and has Mark nipping at his heels. I'm surprised that Spencer hasn't been more competitive with steals - in the preseason he looked like he would be neck and neck with me in SB, and that was before he picked up Carlos Gomez, who could steal 50 this year. Kendrick, another potential SB contributor, continues to be on the shelf with leg injuries, but could help once he gets back on the field.

Stolen Base Chart

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Incredible

Fenway Park, Section 37, Row 22. May 19, 2008.

Not ideal seats for a cold and windy night game with the wind whipping off the Charles and circling through the bleachers. Sitting approximately 400 feet from the pitchers mound, I witnessed what I figured I'd never see in my entire life - a no hitter.

Last year Spencer and I almost saw a no hitter by Felix Hernandex at Diasuke's Fenway debut. Felix (also on my fantasy team that year) pitched beautifully through 7 before giving up a single to JD Drew with none out in the bottom of the eighth. Even though the game wasn't going the Red Sox way, you couldn't help but feel a bit disappointed that the no-no was no more.

Flash forward 13 months later.

It was immediately clear from the start of the game that Lester was on tonight. He was taking batters deep into counts, but was not giving in. He made good pitches with 2 and 3 ball counts and kept the Royals from making any decent contact. The only well hit ball came in the 4th inning - a liner caught on the dive by Jacoby. There was another ball hit sharply, but directly at Youk. After the end of the 5th inning, the thought of the no hitter began creeping in. At the end of the 6th, a time when many people leave the stands on a cold night with a comfortable lead, the bleachers were still completely packed. The scoreboard was just there starring at you

KC 0 0 1

... could this be it?

Top of the 9th, Lester comes to the mound to pitch - 113 pitches in at this point - is received by a standing ovation, flash bulbs popping off, impossible to not feel like this is my one and only shot at seeing this happen. I felt good going into the inning. Esteban German and Tony Pena were due up - both Mendoza line hitters. Of course, Lester probably has his worst sequence of pitches of the night and walks German on 5 pitches. I'm thinking at this point if he walks another and his pitch count approaches the 130+ mark, is he going to get pulled? That would have been tragic, but how much can you really push it when the Sox are already thin at SP?

Lester of course gets out of the inning on his 130th pitch and Fenway goes nuts. Everyone jumping up and down as if we just won the pennant. Outside on Lansdowne, the celebration continues. Just an incredible scene.

It probably just an anomaly, but out of the last 6 no-hitters in the American League, 4 have been from Red Sox pitchers and 3 of those were at Fenway. Strange.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Also looking to trade OF

So, thanks to some waiver wire work and the trade with Spencer, I now have lots of OF. I'm looking for an upgrade at CI.
Quentin, Murphy, and Guillen are all available; I currently don't have the roster spots to start all of them. Thome could also be available, as I'm still looking to upgrade batting average.

Friday, May 16, 2008

The last week

First, let's start off with today's standings. Although they're easily accessible, it is nice to have for reference throughout this post.

So, instead of putting up new charts for the season, I've put together some tables and charts that summarize the last week. Over the last week, my team was the big winner, gaining 5 points, while Spencer's team was the big loser, losing 3.5 points. Saves is very close at the top, with 2 teams at 26 and 1 team at 28. There will probably be a lot of day to day movement in saves for awhile.

Spencer had an off week offensively, only scoring 20 runs and driving in 22, but he did manage to steal 6 bases., including 3 by waiver-wire all-star Carlos Gomez. Although my team didn't pick up any points in stolen bases, I opened up a larger lead thanks to Carl Crawford (3 SB) and Ian Kinsler (4 SB, and now on pace for 45 for the season). Mark had a big week offensively, led by Sizemore (6 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Josh Hamilton (4 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI), who continues to drive in runs at a preposterous rate and is now on pace to drive in 173. A terrible pitching week, which included an increase of 0.57 in ERA and a full tenth of a baserunner in WHIP kept Mark from gaining any ground on the leaders. One caveat about the rate stats is that because I'm not keeping track of IP and AB you can't make direct comparisons between teams with the weekly changes. For example, if my batting average increased by .001 (to .252) and Spencer's dropped by .001 (to .275), he actually had a higher batting average in the last week than I did. This effect should diminish as the season progresses, but for now we can't make direct comparisons.




Another major trade

Spencer picks up another potentially high end starter, although Verlander has an awful lot of questions associated with him. Initially I wasn't quite sure what to make of this deal. Based on names alone, it seems like Spencer comes out ahead, but Verlander has been absolutely horrible so far this year.

For Caleb, the deal addresses his weakness in the outfield, without giving up any players that he was currently starting every week. Damon should be good for a 10 to 15 homerun season with 20 bags, which is looking like it will be a competitive category, especially with Spencer giving up Damon. He'll contribute with runs, but he won't contribute much to RBI totals or address the problems with average. Eveland is a solid, albeit unspectacular starter, pretty much the exact opposite of Verlander. Although he won't offer lofty strikeout totals, he and Greg Smith provide solid fall back options if injuries or ineffectiveness pop up with his pitching staff. I'm not sure Blalock is worth much in this deal. With such a small sample size before he got injured (again), it is hard to say whether or not he had turned a corner, or was just having a hot streak.

For Spencer, this is another attempt to roll the dice on pitching. As I commented before, the only way Spencer is competitive this year is if his pitching staff manages to turn it around. Verlander showed last year that he has the ability to dominate, and the team keeps saying there isn't anything physically wrong with him. I did hear Keith Law say that Verlander seems to be tiring very early in games, as early as the 3rd inning, and that perhaps the IP on a young arm are starting to catch up with him, just like they did for Bonderman. Also, it isn't as if Verlander has been unlucky this year. His strikeouts are way down (5.0/9) and his walks are way up (3.7/9), leading to a QERA of 5.40, not particularly different than his current ERA of 6. However, even if Verlander doesn't turn it around, Spencer ends up with a potentially valuable keeper in Saltamacchia.

Overall, I think I like this deal better for Spencer than for Caleb. He gets the high risk / high reward gamble relatively cheaply (Damon can easily be replaced in his line-up), and I'm just not sure that Caleb is significantly better off after this trade. He could have held onto Jose Guillen and waited on a Verlander turn around. Thanks to some good work on the waiver wire he had the pitching depth to wait it out. Although the stolen bases will definitely help, but I think the price was too high for a marginal upgrade.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

For those that care


Here are the pitching metrics per 9 innings, updated from below. You should be able to click on them to actually see them.
As Bill mentioned, Innings can potentially be made up, where AB's and played games probably will not. I guess my hitting table would be more interesting with AB's rather than games played...


On the hitting side...




It's striking how similar these numbers are here. There are a few exceptions (Bill's Steals per game, Andrew's lack of HR's and runs per game) that are notable outliers from the rest of the data, but the /game rates are again pretty consistent. If Caleb had played all of his games, he could really be in the driver's seat in hitting categories. If I hadn't had 5 guys on the DL and sit on my roster missing starts, I could be right in the mix hitting wise.







Disparity in innings pitched is an interesting metric to look at because it can lead one to say:

1) Once I have an equivalent number of innings to xyz team, I'll be right with them in Wins and K's

or

2) My pitchers blow and last 4 innings, therefore I have 50 IP less than everyone else.
In my case, it's most likely 2, but my K rate actually isn't so bad relative to everyone else's.



Here you can see that Youuuk deserves to be in the lead for k's/inning with 0.8 per inning, vs Don't Trade Roberts 0.6 per inning. Andrew on the other hand is tied for the worst K rate in the league, but is in 4th place with over 40 innings pitched more than Mark.
Wins per inning is strikingly similar with everyone but me coming in at .06 or .07. I'd argue that I have been a bit unlucky at wins this year - haven't picked up any vulture wins from my relievers and even though I have by far the worst staff and plenty of blow-up starts where a win is not likely, I've also had plenty of quality starts not turn into wins. Interesting that everyone else is so consistent here; Andrew did you do some analysis on wins at some point and if we were all where we should be?





Monday, May 12, 2008

Bloggy Bloggers

I generally find the Fire Joe Morgan blog pretty good, but their love-fest for Barry Bonds is pretty disturbing to me. Time for the FJM writers to be subjected to a FJM style ripping.

We all know Barry Bonds is a bad dude. Does illegal whaling in Japan in the off-season, helps cars hit old ladies crossing the street, has a huge collection of pirated LaserDiscs. Crusty sportswriters -- I'm giving you this one. Not defending Barry's character.

Actually, most people hate Barry Bonds because he cheated, lied about it, and acts like a complete jerk off at every opportunity he gets and now is whining that nobody wants to hire him. Forgive us, for we are mere plebeians in the shadow of FJM wisdom-infinite.

I'm starting to wonder what the fuck some of these teams are thinking.

Really? Do you have to be reminded who Barry Bonds is? Would you sign Darth Vader to the Rebel force just because he is bad-ass with the light saber? Perhaps, just perhaps, ownership does not want Barry Bonds on their team because Barry Bonds is insane and a criminal. An insane criminal filled with animosity at all aspects of baseball - other players, coaches, managers, owners, the media, and, oh yeah, the fans too. He may be the most polarizing player in baseball history. But yeah, his OBP is through the roof (and we all know that in FJM land OBP is the equivalent of sex with a supermodel)!

You know how many Cardinals hit 28 home runs last year? One. His name was David Eckstein. ("David Eckstein" is what I call Albert Pujols.)

Barry Bonds Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) last year was 6.2. This is a damn good WARP, but six more wins would have placed the Cardinals at 84-78 and still a game behind the Cubs for the division... and that's assuming that Barry's defense would not have lost them any games.

How many 43-year-old outfielders OPS-ed 1.045 last year? Or .999 the year before, at age 42?

I get it now... FJM thinks Barry Bonds is an ageless baseball god. His stats are good, I think we all can agree on this.

Cool. He's a jerk. We get it. Someone should probably sign him, though, because when he plays baseball he's damn good at it.


Somebody should not sign Barry Bonds. I will lose all respect for that team, the game of baseball, humanity, etc. if Barry Bonds is signed. FJM has jumped off the deep end here. I understand that their stitch is to use statistics, logic, and good research to debunk many of the idiots writing about baseball, but this goes too far. Maybe, just maybe, when somebody fundamentally alters the integrity of the game we should look beyond their statistical contribution to a team. When an employee of a profession tarnishes the image, reputation, and credibility of their profession that employee should not expect to be rehired. Wouldn't happen in any other industry. Does FJM have no moral compass?

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Fausto on the Block

I've decided that I've had enough of Carmona. His total lack of strikeouts just kill me, even though his ERA and wins are great. I'm looking for MI or CI or OF, preferably with some speed. If anyone is interested, let me know.

Blockbuster

Big time deal between Bill and Spencer that will undoubtedly have big consequences in the Standings. I believe that Bill stole this one. He gets two incredibly solid, veteran player who consistently put up All Star numbers year in year out. He gives up Dice-K, who is having a great season and Hafner who is struggling with a .215 batting average. Dice-K is not replaced in this deal, but the added BA value of losing Pronk and adding Young and Manny will be significant.

The problem I see in the deal is that Spencer trades two great players, Manny and Young for one player having a great year (not sure Dice-K is an "ace" yet) and one player having a terrible year. Too many eggs being placed in one bucket for my liking.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Down goes Wells.

I didn't want to say anything sooner for fear of jinxing myself, but I'd gone all season without a DL trip. So much for that.

I was already in need of an outfielder, and it looks like I'm more so now.

I've got a bit of a glut of decent SPs, so I'm gonna go ahead and put all of them on the trading block, including Beckett. Now's your chance to get the best fantasy pitcher in the AL. Or to buy low on Verlander. Or to grab the amazing Daniel Cabrera and Cliff Lee. Or the eversteady and underrated Javier Vazquez. Or Joe Blanton, who I don't even like. Or the young Greg Smith. Or Nick Adenhart, who kinda sucks. All I require is players with OF eligibility.

Friday, May 9, 2008

Delmon Young

When is this guy going to start resembling the guy that Baseball Prospectus projects at a 19.4 VORP? The bat chucker has hit a grand total of four (4), yes FOUR, extra base hits in 125 at bats. To be fair, this is one more than Johan Santana and Micah Owings. He is slugging a whopping .302. I used a keeper pick on someone with a MINUS 2.9 VORP. Amazingly, he is not the worst Keeper of the season so far (min 50 ab, 20 ip).

VORP
-10.9 Justin Verlander
-9.8 C.C. Sabathia
-8.3 Robinson Cano
-2.9 Delmon Young

Good days and bad

More charts today, this time I'm posting WHIP and ERA. Again, like average, WHIP and ERA are still extremely volatile.

http://picasaweb.google.com/wgmcdowell/YouThrowLikeAGirl/photo?authkey=7_cOP5qSYq4#5198464398334026210

http://picasaweb.google.com/wgmcdowell/YouThrowLikeAGirl/photo?authkey=7_cOP5qSYq4#5198464406923960818

Luke is easily leading the pack in both WHIP and ERA, with all of his pitchers, with the exception of Brian Bannister, pitching extremely well. Halladay and Felix have been at the upper ends of their expectations, and waiver pickup Ervin Santana has been spectacular.
In the past week or so, both Caleb and I have each had some very, very good days. From 4/30 to 5/2 my pitching staff managed a run of good games that took a full 0.5 off my ERA and 0.1 off my WHIP. Yesterday, with only two starters pitching, Caleb managed to take 0.2 off his ERA and 0.05 off his WHIP.
Spencer, on the other hand, was not quite so lucky. With three starters imploding on one day, his WHIP rose from 1.38 to 1.45, and his ERA jumped an incredible 0.56, from 4.66 to 5.20.
Even with Luke's considerable lead in the pitching categories, a blow up on par with Spencer's would put him right back in the pack for ERA and take away most of his lead for WHIP. Fortunately for Luke, it is pretty difficult to field a staff that pitches 18 2/3 innings, giving up 42 baserunners and 24 earned runs.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

OK this isn't even funny anymore

Michael Young left Wednesday's game in the first inning with a left hip injury.
Young appeared to hurt himself on the swing that produced a fly out in the top of the first inning and didn't take the field defensively in the bottom of the inning. Ramon Vazquez replaced him at shortstop.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

W...T.....F

Despite beginning his minor league rehab assignment with five hits in six at-bats, Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is not expected to return from the disabled list until next week.
Kendrick continues to feel soreness in his hamstring. "He felt good to a certain point," manager Mike Scioscia said. "It's moving in the right direction, but we're not quite there. He's going to be evaluated today to see how it feels."

Highly enjoyable

walking randy johnson on 4 pitches...hilarious.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The promised pretty pictures

So I have a week and a half of daily data now, ready to be presented in pretty pictures. We'll start off with one I call "The Deathspiral" (batting average). Batting average is still very volatile, especially if you get very lucky or unlucky for a few days. Over the last 4 days my team has batted under 0.170. This is a good way to quickly annihiliate your batting average.
Alright, we're going to try linking to Picassa instead...

Right now, homeruns are also very tight. Early on it looked like Caleb my run away with the category, but he hasn't been able to build on his lead since I started keeping track of the stats. The middle of the pack is extremely close right now, with 4 teams within a few homeruns of each other.

http://picasaweb.google.com/wgmcdowell/YouThrowLikeAGirl/photo?authkey=7_cOP5qSYq4#5197356655139843170

Let me know if those links work for you, of if they're protected somehow...

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Injuries

I know the team I drafted is injury prone (Sheffield, Kendrick, Manny, Blalock) BUT -- this is getting a little excessive. I currently have A-Rod, Blalock, and Borowski, and Hughes on the DL, plus Kendrick and Figgins coming off injuries and missing substantial time, plus random things like Carlos Gomez getting hit in the head. Meanwhile Bill's entire lineup is healthy. Let's see SOME sense of balance here.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Too many awesome outfielders

I have too many awesome/mediocre outfielders. Come take some off my hands! They are

Manny
Sheffield
Ordonez
Damon
Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Carlos Gomez

I need starting pitching. Closers or Middle infielders are also interesting.

Potential rule changes

I'm not sure if I'm particularly for or against any of these changes, but they're things I've been thinking about, and thought I'd open them up for discussion.

1. Putting all free agents on waivers for a portion of the week.
Looking back to Mark's post when I snagged Mark Lowe before he had a chance to when Putz went on the DL, should we consider putting free agents on waivers every Monday? The waiver period could last Monday through Thursday or Friday, which would limit the number of speed based grabs, but still leave plenty of time for people to pick up players right away on the weekend and plug them in to the lineup for the next week. Right now, waiver priority is kind of meaningless, and a weekly lineup league seems like the perfect fit for putting all free agents on waivers.

2. Removing keeper time limits.
I can't remember exactly how we decided to have the the baseball system work. Did we decide on three keeper years (a total of 4 years) with escalating draft picks? I'm proposing removing the time limit, but keeping the escalating draft pick. That will keep the draft move "level" from year to year (e.g. no huge talent influx a couple years from now), and allow people to keep players they really like.

Daily stat updates

I've started taking down the daily standings again, and I should have a post sometime next weekend about it, with a few pretty pictures. Right now I only have 4 days worth of numbers, so there isn't really anything to report. The ERA and WHIP graphs should be the most interesting. Both Mark and I have shaved huge amounts off of our ratios in the last fews days, so it clearly is still very, very early, especially for the pitching categories. Also, my team is on an insane base stealing run right now, but SB are a funny category that you can go a week without picking one up.

And finally, who would like to set the over/under date on when Luke decides to punt saves and stolen bases?

Injuries and Weekly Leagues

Sunday morning I set my lineup for the week ahead. Yes, I know Posada had been battling injuries as of late, but he played in 5 consecutive games and was supposed to be in the lineup Sunday. Today I find out that he was a late scratch from Sunday's game and is headed to the DL (for the first time in his career). So there goes 6 games at catcher, 20 or so at bats I'll never have back for a player I drafted specially to eat up lots of games at that position. Awesome.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Another discussion topic

There is no doubt that me taking Hafner over Manny looks is shaping up to be an absolute disaster, but my question is how much does Hafner have left? It's been a rough start to the season and after a down 2007. That said, he's only a year removed from hitting 42 homeruns in 452 at bats (an insane 1/11 AB) and is only 30.
Alright everyone, feel free to disparage my player, then attempt to trade for him for pennies on the dollar.

Bill's right,

So here's a discussion topic. Not that I can trust any of you for unbiased advice, but just the same:

Salty's up and is the official backup catcher now, and it's estimated that he'll start 2-3 times a week, at most, for now. I drafted Pierzynski to get me through until Salty was called up, and he's done an admiral job of it: 11R, 3HR, 12RBI, .319. But he's AJ Pierzynski. He hit .260 last year. Do I stick with him for now and hope he doesn't regress anytime soon, or do I take my chances on limited starts from Salty?

Friday, April 25, 2008

This blog is woefully under used

Where are (more of) the great stories about Al Reyes spitting blood on a bar patron? Where is the trash talk? Where are the trade block offers?

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Who is for real?

Well, with me being not last for a day, figured it was time to throw up some early season discussion.

We've got Caleb and Youuk leading the league right now by a decent margin. Caleb has been strong across the board with very strong hitting and decent pitching. Youuk leads in HR's but is last in RBI's (strange combo) but is really strongest in pitching, where he leads every category but saves (where he is once again last).

So far, Youuk's rotation of King Felix, Halladay, Bannister, Marcum, and Ervin Santana have been absolutely lights out. Meanwhile Carlos Pena and Raul Ibanez are slugging out of their minds. Can Youuk have pulled off an improbable one season turn around?

As for Caleb, he's nicely overcome Ortiz's dismal start, and is benefitting early from Vernon Wells and Alex Gordon quick starts. These strike me as potentially sustainable, and Caleb's pitching numbers should get better as Beckett and Verlander settle in.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the league, Mark is getting any innings at all from his injured staff - he's got Harden, Putz, Slowey, Bedard, and Garza all missing time - pretty incredible. It should be a great staff when healthy, but will injury problems plague them all year long? And how long can MZ hold out before dropping some of the marginal players like Slowey?

On the AAA legacy front, clearly pitching is the problem that everyone saw coming, and the legacy's young pitchers have not disappointed. Not helping are problems from closers Borwoski and Street. To have any hope of winning this year, AAA may need to win every hitting category, and hope for a strong second half from his young staff.

Not quite sure what to make of Andrew's team, which just says mediocre to me through and through. We've got Shields and Carmona on the staff, but then we're pitching Manny del Carmen and Jon Lester. Abreu and Vlad are off to nice starts, and Cabrera will undoubtedly pick it up, but Lugo and Varitek will drag this lineup down. Perhaps a few too many sox on this team?

Berkeley Hoboes, destined to win it all, has seen some stumbling from Sabathia but has enjoyed nice value from Greinke and Sherill. An 0/26 contribution from Travis Buck hasn't helped things, but BJ Upton is looking like he could have a huge year. Looking up and down the Hoboes lineup is pretty scary - there is a lot of potential there, and if a few of them blow up, Bill could run away with a lot of offensive categories. Bill may be in an even better position if Betancourt takes over for Borowski. I'm not even sure if injuries will de-rail this team, there is a lot of depth here.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Truly Hilarious

According to the St. Petersburg Times, Al Reyes was arrested early Friday morning "after falling down, picking a fight and spitting blood at the patrons of a popular Hyde Park night spot."

Reyes may have been out celebrating his 38th birthday, which was Thursday. The newspaper reports that Reyes "fell against a ceramic pot inside the bar" and thought that someone had pushed him, at which point he "began exchanging words" with a patron who eventually "punched Reyes in the face." In a news release, police said that Reyes then "began to spit blood on the people in the area and began to swing his arms about," at which point an officer reportedly twice used a taser to subdue him.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Pair of Sox tickets for sale

For my birthday, Kate got us a pair of tickets to Sox vs Blue Jays on May 1. We realized today we couldn't make it, so I hopped on EBay and grabbed a pair of tickets to another game (Patriot's Day!). We figured we'd offer them up to friends and family before we bother with EBay or Stubhub.

As I said, they're for the 5/1 game at 7 PM vs Toronto. They're Standing Room Only tickets for the 3rd base pavilion. The special friends-and-family price is $68 for the pair, which is what Kate paid for two $25 seats and the "Convenience Fee" and "Transaction subtotal." They're print at home tickets, so no shipping!

Let me know if you or anyone you know wants them.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Harden scratched from start

Well, that certainly didn't take long. It doesn't look like a serious injury yet, but with Harden you never know. Some blogs are already claiming that the injury is more serious than the A's are letting on...

http://disabledlist.blogspot.com/2008/04/rich-harden-airplane-injury-methinks.html

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Remember Bronson Arroyo?

Do you miss him?

What I wanna know is, how does he make his acoustic guitar play that awesome electric solo?

Thursday, April 3, 2008

it could happen...

So, if Barry Bonds signs on with an AL team in the next few weeks, is he available to us? I would guess that the same rule we applied to Clemens would apply to Bonds, right?

Monday, March 31, 2008

The Massacre Has Begun

Well half a day into the full season, Bill has 2 HRs, 2 SBs, 7 runs, and 9 RBIs. And my pitching has 7 innings pitched for a 15.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP.

Oh baby.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Manny's Moments

Is everyone else as sick and tired as me of the whole "manny doesn't hustle, manny being manny, etc." storyline played out 100+ times over every newspaper and blog every season? I mean, can you actually remember a time when Manny didn't reach base or was thrown out b/c he dogged it? It might have happened once or twice, but come on. So what if he had to sprint to make it to second base when a three legged cow could have made it standing up? Get over it.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

My team's deficiencies

Clearly I underestimated my team's batting average deficiency, as they are now a less than impressive 0-10.
Things don't look to improve for about a week either. Having two games and then a week off is a complete tease.

Monday, March 24, 2008

FINALLY!

Longest offseason ever. The defense of the dynasty begins tonight (both in real and fantasy terms). Seriously, can't wait for Dice-K to take the mound. Going to try and go to bed at 10pm tonight so I can get up and watch the game at 3am. Hope those of you in Boston are going to the Cask or Game On!

BASEBAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL