Important Dates
2018 Season: March 29 - September 30
Monday, September 29, 2008
Congrats Caleb
Did we ever decide how to split the entry money?
And, more importantly, who wants to start discussing keeper trades?
Sunday, September 28, 2008
I can still win (although I really don't like my chances anymore)
1. A bad start by Shields, bad enough to bump up Caleb's ERA 0.02, tying him with me. (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5)
2. Bad starts by Wakefield and Baker, bad enough to bump up Andrew's WHIP by 0.01. I'll take 0.02, but I don't want to get greedy. (+0.5)
3. I hit 2 more homeruns than Andrew today (+1).
4. I have 2 more RBI than Andrew today (+1).
Alternative, less likely ways I can pick up points are:
1. Vulture a win from a reliever, and none of Caleb's starters win (Shields), and none of Mark's starters win (Millwood, Saunders) (+1, Caleb loses 0.5, Mark loses 0.5)
2. Get a save from all 3 of my closers, while none of Caleb's get a save (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5).
I guess mostly I'm hoping for a big offensive day across the league, and that my players eek it out against Andrew's. Caleb and I are going head to head in a couple categories, but it really comes down to my team against Andrew's on the final day.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Another big day
I still can make up ground in HR (1 behind Caleb), RBI (2 behind Andrew), WHIP (0.01 behind Andrew - thanks Carmona!), and potentially (although much less likely), saves and wins (both 2 back on Caleb).
My team has been manic depressive all year long. If they can keep up the hot streak all that frustration will be worth it.
Holy shit! J.D. started
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
How I can win.
Caleb also is not in a good position to gain any more points, although he only needs to hang on to what he has. He might be able to gain a point on Mark in wins (3 back), but with Mark starting a full complement of starters, that will be difficult. The only other category where he could pick up a point is in RBI, where he trails me by ten, but that isn't likely to change in a week.
Now, the interesting part (at least for me). Depending on how this last week plays out, I could gain as many as 5.5 points. The key will be homeruns and RBI, which is why I snagged guys like Napoli, Cust, and Shealy for this last week. After today's outburst, which made me much happier with my team, I'm two homeruns behind Andrew, and three behind Caleb. I'm also 5 RBI behind Andrew, so with a solid power week I could be at 44.5, with Caleb losing at least one, possibly two points (to 45 or 44). I could also gain points in wins (1 behind Caleb, assuming the Royals bullpen doesn't blow it) and, surprisingly, ERA, where I trail Caleb by only 0.04, thanks to a great week by my pitchers. Gaining a point in either category, and taking one from Caleb, would be huge. Finally, I'm also tied with Spencer right now for WHIP at 1.29. I probably won't be able to catch Andrew (1.27), but an extra 0.5 points would be huge. At this point in the season, one terrible start could be the difference between winning the league, and finishing second and ending up with a shitty draft pick. Hopefully it will be an interesting final week.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Hmm.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Add Beltre to the list
It was said it would take an incredible amount of bad luck for me not to win. I think I've managed to cover that. Thank God football has started, although the Brady injury is worse than all of these injuries and trades combined.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Mystery player
I think Dustin Pedroia deserves a little more credit than he has been getting.
More football hilarity
"Underwear, socks, credit cards and money. He left my money clip with no money in it," said Johnson, who had $200 stolen. "He should've taken the clip, too. It's quite stupid if you ask me." Rudi says he won't call the police
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Batting average
Thursday, August 28, 2008
If Caleb goes...
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Prediction
Bill: Behind Andrew in 3 categories, AVG, ERA, and WHIP, but is far behind and probably won't catch him in any of them. Behind Spencer in 2 categories, AVG and WHIP, and has a good chance of catching him. However, all of these are rate categories, not totals, so Spencers lack of producers remaining on his team might not really affect him there. Points: 0-2.
Caleb: Behind Andrew in 2 categories, HR and RBI, and looking at Andrew's team, is just about guaranteed to catch him in both. BUT, Caleb is already ahead of Spencer in everything. Points: 2.
Mark: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP. Just about guaranteed to catch him in SVs, kind of 50/50 on Ks, and probably will not catch him in the rate categories ERA and WHIP. Behind Spencer in 3 categories, SV, K, and WHIP. Guaranteed to catch him in SVs, probably better than 50/50 on Ks, and has a good chance of getting WHIP. Again, however, WHIP is a rate category and won't be affected as much by Spencer's trades. For Mark, whether or not he catches both in Ks depends on whether or not he decides to stick with his 6 closers (5 now that Guardado is in MIN) or put in more starting pitchers. Either way he'll catch them in SVs, but if he sticks with the closers, I also might catch him in Ws while he passes me in SVs. Ignoring the Ws and SVs races between Mark and I, his points to be gained from Spencer and Andrew are: 2-5.
Luke: Behind Andrew in 4 categories, HR, RBI, SB, and SV, and I think pretty much guaranteed to catch him in all of them. Behind Spencer in 1 category, SB, and tied in SV. Guaranteed to break the SV tie, but about zero chance of catching him in SB. Points: 4.5.
My bet would be that from all of this, the points will go like this:
Mark: 5
Luke: 4.5
Caleb: 2
Bill: 2
There are obviously a lot of other factors in play, and a lot of things that could still change, but this is gonna be a big one.
Monday, August 25, 2008
The Perfect Day?
Trade Winners and Losers
Winners:
Bill - With good value in the first round next year, losing crawford was not a big blow, and Quentin, with another HR today, will at least be pretty good next year with a waiver wire pick up. Meanwhile, he strengthened his position for this year, which he needed with all the injuries.
Andrew - Andrew will now be keeping Cabrera, Crawford, and Longoria, just to start. That's a pretty nasty start to a line-up. Oh, and he also has Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Brandon Morrow. Drew should be in great shape next year.
Slight Winner:
Mark - This was a trade Mark needed to make but Longoria is arguably the best keeper in the game. It should make for a VERY interesting end of the year race, but things would look a lot better if he had managed to block andrew's second trade with Bill. As it is, MZ is still well positioned keeper wise with granderson and sizemore, but can only watch in pain if this year's title slips away and has to watch longoria hit 45 HRs next year.
Caleb - Again, good value in the first round next year (Texiera, Bay) so i like the ordonez trade for him (even though I pulled the trigger). I learned the hard way about pitcher keepers, but halladay and kazmir are much more of a sure bet than frickin clay buccholz. Doesn't have the killer keeper that Bill or Andrew has, but looking better for next year.
Loser:
Spencer - I just really wanted Ortiz on my team. But aside from that, while Andrew made 4 or 5 dump trades, I had to content myself with getting delmon young, and brandon wood. Not exactly laying the groundwork for a return to glory. The bottom line was that Andrew had the players to trade, while i had total crap like Sheffield and Paul Konerko. What an utter disaster of a season.
???????
Youuk - I can't decipher all of the trades Youuuk made - at first I thought he was positioning himself for keepers but then he traded me for carlos pena? He added a lot of talent for this year, some good keepers (Beckett, Cano) - so I'm not sure how to figure it all out. But he's still very much in it this year, so he's a dark horse for taking the title this year.
Monday, August 11, 2008
And Bill loses crawford...
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Back to fantasy
Everyone else essentially lost nothing. If anything can make it a real race, the MLB trading deadline certainly tried.
Happy Trade Deadline Day
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Sorry, Bill
In the non-fantasy baseball realm, I think this makes the Angels the best team in the AL.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Lester?!
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Daisuke for Cy Young
However, I really believe that Daisuke pitches is pitching better/smarter/more effectively this season even though he is still pitching himself into jams. The main difference between this season and last is Daisuke's home run rate. Last year 25 HR were hit against him at a rate of 1.10 per 9 innings (10th worst among AL starters). This season, he has only given up 5 home runs at a rate of 0.48 per 9 innings (4th best among AL starters w/ 90 IP). Without the homeruns, the ERA has improved considerably.
I looked over his game logs to find the 12PA in which the bases were loaded against him. In 9 of the 12 situations it was with 2 outs. In all 9 of those situations he got the third out.
I believe that with runners on, Daisuke doesn't mind loading the bases knowing that he can make the next out. The batters that he has faced with two outs and the bases loaded have not been very good either, so that plays into his approach too.
Last year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP was 79 compared with an overall OPS+ of 93
This year Daisuke's OPS+ with RISP is 54 compared with an overall OPS+ of 72
At some point you might have to consider that his so-called "luck" could be a function of the way he believes he can be most effective (nibbling, walking a lot of guys, i.e. not giving up extra base hits) and a higher degree of focus/determination that comes when he has runners on base. All reasons why he will be a Cy Young candidate by the end of the season.
Caleb did make a good point about K-Rod. If he breaks the Saves record, he definitely should get the Cy Young. You got to think he's the front runner right now.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
This is Awesome
Could it be?
Monday, July 21, 2008
Slow discussion these days...
New Pete Rose Legacy Goal - 20 points by end of season.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Derby Results
Team | Home Runs |
Don't Trade Roberts | 66 |
Berkeley Hoboes | 0 |
Dusty's Base Cloggers | 0 |
Mandrew & the Vorpies | 0 |
Yooouuuk! | 0 |
Pete Rose Legacy | 0 |
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Over?
Over?
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Another one bites the dust...
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
The Market is Open
Anyone and everyone on my team is available. Although I will likely not trade A-Rod, everyone else, including prospective keepers, are available. I will obviously be looking for 2-3 high quality keepers in return.
Potential value-adds to YOUR fantasy roster include Paul Konerko, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins, Carlos Gomez, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, AND the incredible Travis Hafner.
On the pitching side, where you guys really need help battling the big bill machine, I have Verlander (lights out over the past month), Ducshererererere (leading the league in ERA), Dice-K (worst fantasty pitcher to watch..ever), Joba, Buccholz, and Liriano.
Available closers include Huston Street, Troy Percival, and Masa Kobayashi.
Least likely for me to give up are A-Rod, Buccholz, and Chamberlain. Everyone else including Maggs are very available.
Let's see some offers.
Harden to Cubs
Monday, July 7, 2008
LaPorta and the Like
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Daisuke
My boys all grown up...
I wonder what Fire Joe Morgan would have to say about this...
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Another kick in the pants...
Hey mzpanther, Sorry, but the waiver request you made in Durham Plays for Keeps has been denied. Player Dropped: Crosby, Bobby This happened for the following reason: There was another manager with a higher waiver priority requesting the player. |
When I read this I didn't even have to guess who that other manager was... It could only be one.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Jacoby's first at-bat
And it's....a ground out. I win the trade!
I have discovered the problem
"I don't want to take a chance," said Ordonez, third Tiger this month to go on the DL due to an oblique muscle pull. "You know when it is not going to be OK, and it is going to be a miracle if you feel better. "Sheff (Gary Sheffield) told me, 'You've got to take care of it.' "
Interleague play is over.
The Royals went 13-5, and the Mariners managed to play .500 ball.
Red Sox pitchers, by the way, were 0-25 at the plate, with one strained back.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Really?
Quentin's Numbers:
.253/.342/.530 (2006)
.218/.298/.349 (2007)
.280/.393/.522 (2008)
If he can continue playing about 100% better than he has in the past, then for a 26th round pick, that is a good deal. But I seriously don't see it. I would guess that after his second half regression, Quentin will be a 10-15th round draft pick. There's just too many good outfielders to warrant a high draft pick on him. To use a keeper on a 10-15th round pick is not very useful in my opinion, making this trade a head scratcher to say the least.
When is it time to give up?
As a fun meaningless analysis I took the current standings and assumed that every team does the exact average of the cumulative first half performances....except for mine. MY team, instead, does the absolute best of all the first half numbers across the board...above are the results.
You have all been warned.
The Fantasy Value All Stars
C - AJ Pierzynski. 23rd round. Dusty's Base Cloggers. He might be an asshole, and I don't think anyone expects him to keep his performance up (not even his own manager, who just traded for Napoli), but Pierzynski has been the #2 fantasy catcher in the AL this year. Mauer is number 1, but with him going in the 3rd round, it is hard to call him a "value pick".
1B - Kevin Youkilis. 10th round. Don't Trade Roberts. A tough call between Giambi (undrafted) and Youkilis here, but when you get the #1 1B in the 10th round, the same round as huge busts such as Jhonny Peralta, Phil Hughes, Kelvim Escobar, and Ryan Garko, there is definitely some good value there.
Honorable mention: Giambi, Casey Kotchman (AAA Legacy, 19th round)
2B - Dustin Pedroia. 9th round. Mandrew and the VORPIES. He hasn't been as good of a "real" baseball player this year, with a pretty substantial decrease in OBP, Pedroia has been a great fantasy player this year, easily on pace to top HR and SB numbers from last year. Although he doesn't quite count, as he was a keeper, even I didn't think Ian Kinsler (11th round) was going to be this good. According to Yahoo, he has been the best fantasy player in the AL, and is on pace for a massive 25 HR, 40 SB season.
Honorable mention: Kinsler, Jose Lopez (Mandrew and the VORPIES, undrafted)
3B - Joe Crede. 17th round. Dusty's Base Cloggers. Thin pickings at 3B. Although Huff has been better according to Yahoo, he's hardly played for anyone's team, so I have to go with Crede.
SS - None. It seems like every shortstop who has played regularly for a team has underperformed. Peralta hits tons of home runs, but has a brutal average. Jeter, O-cab, and Michael Young are all having down years. Yuniesky Betancourt has been on fire since being traded (.327 average for Spencer), but he still is the 10th best AL SS overall. In a 6 team league, that isn't so hot.
OF - Josh Hamilton. 12th round. Don't Trade Roberts. Even though he's been nicked up a bit the last few days, Hamilton has been on pace for a historic season. Hitting 19 homeruns, and already driving in 76. Everyone else in the league needs to hope he makes like Morneau in the second half of 2007, so Mark can lose the league and call him a fuckhead.
OF - JD Drew. 20th round. Don't Trade Roberts. Mark's team shows up again. JD Drew has been unbelievable since Ortiz went down, incredibly outpacing whatever run production you'd expect out of Papi. A massive June has put Drew as the 5th best outfielder. Tough to beat with a 20th round pick.
OF - Carlos Quentin. Undrafted. Berkeley Hoboes. Despite a slow couple of weeks to start June, Quentin has been an offensive force, with 50+ runs and RBI, 17 homeruns, and even a few steals. He could be the offensive waiver wire player of the year.
Honorable mention: OF was actually full of bargains this year. All the fantasy previews kept saying that OF was shallower this year than in years past, but the performances of players like Milton Bradley, David Murphy, and the once-cut Jose Guillen have meant that talent has always been available on the waiver wire.
SP - Cliff Lee (undrafted, Dusty's Base Cloggers), Shawn Marcum (22nd round, YOUUUUKKK), Justin Duscherer (undrafted, Pete Rose Legacy), John Danks (undrafted, Berkeley Hoboes), Rich Harden (14th round, Don't Trade Roberts). Coming into this season, if this was your staff, I think everyone would have advised you to give up right now, and simply not bother paying attention. They all started off amazingly well, and have hit a few rocky patches here and there, but they've been top 15 starters this year. Considering anyone could have easily assembled this staff for peanuts, that is pretty impressive.
RP - George Sherill (15th round, Berkeley Hoboes), Joakim Soria (12th round, Berkeley Hoboes), Troy Percival (16th round, AAA Legacy). Unsurprisingly, bargains can be found at RP. Sherrill is #2 in the AL in saves at 26, and Soria isn't too far behind at #5 with 21. Percival, despite his hamstring problems and recent ineffectiveness has still saved 18 games, more than much more highly rated closers such as Huston Street (9th round), JJ Putz (3rd round), or Bobby Jenks (8th round). Maybe those analysts are on to something when they say don't pay for saves.
Anyone want to step up and put together an all bust team? Despite my current lead, I imagine you'll be seeing more than a few of my draftees in there.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Swelling, Spasms, and Babies
- Matsui has his knee drained last Wednesday but is in the starting lineup Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Then, after a day off Monday, his knee (and now a stiff neck) kept him out of the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday. He "may be available for pinch-hitting duties". WhooHoo.
- In Monday's pre-game warm ups, Youkilis gets hit by a ball in the eye and misses that game and the next.
- Hamilton injuries himself in the 4th inning of Tuesday's game and is now the dreaded "day to day".
- Not to be outdone, "The Mariners confirmed that Erik Bedard won't make his start Wednesday because of back spasms."
- Oh yeah, Bartlett will miss Weds and Thurs games for the birth of his first child.
Monday, June 23, 2008
My AL Balot
Varitek .230/.308/.392
Mauer .331/.417/.437
This isn't even close. The fact that the Red Sox have 1.5 billion fans verses the Twins 325 means that, with a push, Varitek probably will overtake Mauer.
Pedrioa over Kinser is another joke:
Pedrioa: .282/.329/.410
Kinsler: .305/.362/.502
Here is my ballot with the leader in the parenthesis.
C Joe Mauer (Mauer)
1B Kevin Youkilis (Youkilis)
2B Ian Kinsler (Pedrioa)
3B Miguel Cabrera* (Rodriguez)
SS Orlando Cabrera (Jeter)
OF Josh Hamilton (Ramirez)
OF J.D. Drew** (Hamilton)
OF -None- (Ichiro)
DH Aubry Huff (Ortiz -inj-, Matsui)
Write-in: Carlos Quentin
But the biggest joke of all is the fact that Carlos Quentin is not even on the ballot (.280/.392/.533) with the 6th best OPS in the AL. I mean, you gotta think at least 95% of the votes are over the Internet, right? So why the fuck can't they have added him, like, two months ago?
*I would vote for A-Rod here, his number are deserving, but I cannot vote for the guy. Just can't.
**Milton Bradley is listed as an OF on the Ballot, which he isn't. Bradley has better numbers than Drew and Quentin, but it's hard for me to vote for a guy for a position that he doesn't play.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Highlights from Game 6
- Paula Cole ("Where Have all the Cowboys Gone") sang the National Anthem. You literally could not hear her by the end the crowd was so loud.
- Celtics introductions - The Celtic's intro is so freaking cool live. It's madness with everyone screaming along with KG and Paul Pierce on the jumbotron.
- Crowd chanting De-Fense . . De-Fense . .every defensive possession, all game long, even when up by 40.
- Ray Allen, Posey, and House draining threes it felt like on every shot (looking at the box score, House was 1-5, but for some reason I don't remember those 4 misses).
- Thinking to myself this game is not over... this game is not over... this game is not over. It wasn't until we entered the fourth quarter up by 29, I was like... Ok, even if the Celtics don't score this quarter, they still have a good chance at winning.
- You got Rondo'd! You don't get a good appreciation of his speed watching on TV. Sitting up in the balcony, you get a better perspective of how quickly he moves with and without the ball.
- Na, Na, Na, Na... Hey, Hey, Hey... Goodbye. That was the loudest crowd cheer I've ever heard at a sporting event. Hands down. I hope it translated on TV.
- Booing David Stern. This was so satisfying. Don't even get me started on how messed up the finals schedule was. Having 2 days off between home games and only 1 between away games, NO Friday night or Saturday night games, 9:15pm start times...etc. Despite what I've read, I really don't think it had anything to do with the referee scandal. I mean, we had just won the Championship, right?
- The crowd breaking out yet another De-Fense chant during Doc's speech on the Garden floor after he mentions how the season started with defense. Couldn't hear the rest of his speech, but I am sure it was pretty awesome. I also missed Pierce dancing on his chair to Gino - I'm hoping to find a youtube clip of that sometime.
- So yeah, all in all a good time. The riot police were out in force outside the Garden. It was kind of funny. They would all of a sudden just march forward in unison without warning for about 10 steps and then stop. During one of their marches, I got a bunch of people singing the Darth Vader entrance music as we took pictures of them and retreated. Good times...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
The Injury Train Continues
Monday, June 16, 2008
I heart Ichiro
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Everything must go!!!!111!!!!1
Andrew
The last two weeks in not so brief
But now on to the baseball. To keep the updates at even intervals, the stats and standings are as of the morning of Friday, June 13. I don't have at bat totals for this week, and I think I'm going to give up on keeping track of them.
As usual, we'll start off with the current standings, and the change in the standings in the last two weeks.



Overall, my offense continued to hit extremely well, leading in R, HR, and RBI, with Manny, Swisher, and David Murphy leading the way. Caleb also had a huge two weeks in stolen bases, swiping 8 more bags than anyone else, however, because my lead was so large to begin with, he wasn't able to gain any points.
Batting average was also a big mover this last week, with Caleb and I gaining points, at the expense of Luke. Unlike the pitching stats, where the change was driven by poor performance, batting average changed because both Caleb and I had big offensive weeks - I added 10 points to my batting average, while he added 9. Here is a chart of batting average for the last two weeks.

Thursday, June 12, 2008
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Anyone watching the game?
Thome for Kotchman
I'm hoping Thome still has one 30HR year left in him. He's historically never hit below .270 or so. You could definitely see him having a .250 year or so, but I'm not expecting him to hit .200 the rest of the way. I think this is actually a pretty good deal for me, capturing Thome's 2nd half upside with the power I need having lost Manny and with Hafner and Sheffield being totally unknown quantities at this point.
It's still a great deal for Bill, however, as it gets him exactly what he needed, which is more average. Kotchman is solid, and I've definitely helped Bill's chances pretty substantially with the two trades I've made with him this year.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
That's just sad...
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Week in brief
Friday, May 30, 2008
Another weekly update

The at-bats are starting to even out, except for Spencer, who is about 200 AB behind everyone else. If you're wondering why my average is so low, I'm in the middle of the pack for number of hits, and 50 at bats ahead. So, I just need all of your teams to go 0/40 for the next couple of days.
Thanks to Casilla being on the DL and Andrew plugging in Octavio Dotel into his starting lineup, the projected IP are starting to come down. Although Andrew is currently in 4th place for strikeouts, the table shows that he simply didn't draft enough high strikeout pitchers, and Mark and Spencer could end up passing him. Mark is also starting to catch up in projected IP. Of course, he's in a bit of a weird position projection wise as all of his starters pitch on the same day. His projected IP will shoot up, then slowly decrease, and then spike up again, so I'm not sure what day would probide the most accurate projection, but I only update the IP, AB, and H counts on Fridays, so we're just going to go with that.
At the current pace, I'll end up leading Ks. Of course, that could easily change now that I don't have Matsuzaka, but my K/9 is starting to pull away. Assuming that Matsuzaka isn't hurt for a significant period of time (and looking now, he just went on the 15 day DL, good thing Clay is ready to come back), and Spencer can catch up in IP, Spencer could come from behind and give Caleb some trouble in strikeouts.
Also, I can't quite figure out why Luke is leading in Ks right now, but doesn't lead in projected Ks without the IP limit. It must have something to do with the way Yahoo calculates the projected IP limits.
Do yourself a favor and check out...
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_05_25_baseballblog_archive.html#6984130545438318398
Projected Standings
Batting | Pitching | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Team | |||||||||||
1. | Dusty'sBaseCloggers | 5 | 5.5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 47.5 |
2. | Berkeley Hoboes | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3.5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 43 |
3. | YOOOUUUK! | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 41 |
4. | Don't Trade Roberts! | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 31 |
5. | Mandrew&the VORPIES | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
6. | AAA Legacy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5.5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22.5 |
Caleb has had a great start to the season. There are no major deficiencies in his team, his lowest category is a 3 in average. Spencer on the other hand has been decimated by injuries and has fallen to the bottom of many of the counting categories.
The projections are based on everyone's roster set this week. Any players that are on the DL are not counted in these projections. Because future injuries cannot be accounted for, I chose to leave the current injured players out for balance. Also, especially in some of the weaker positions, starting rosters change weekly. This week I am using Jason Bartlett, next week it may be a different free agent. In any event, I leave it up to you to decide how these intangibles will affect the projections.
Without further ado, here are the Projected Standings:
R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | SO | ERA | WHIP | TOTAL | |
Caleb | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
Luke | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
Bill | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 39 |
Mark | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
Spencer | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 28 |
Andrew | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
Plus/Minus from Current Standings:
R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | SO | ERA | WHIP | TOTAL | |
Caleb | -1 | -2.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.5 |
Luke | 0 | -3 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Bill | -1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Mark | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Spencer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.5 |
Andrew | -1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Luke comes in strong in the pitching categories, nabbing 27 of the possible 30 points, but still not enough to beat Caleb. Caleb is projected to fall the hardest over the last 2/3 of the season, but still has enough momentum to carry the lead through to the end.
Bill also sees a sharp drop, mostly from saves. Picking up Wheeler could help if Sherrill's production comes back to earth. The biggest absolute change is from my team, projected to gain 7 points. With 25 of the possible 30 points in offensive categories, I could make a run at the lead if the bats can heat up and if Putz picks up the pace.
Also to note: As Bill pointed out in an earlier post, innings pitched should even out by the end of the season. This will help people's counting stats who are behind in innings and may or may not help the ERA and WHIP. It's hard to know how that will work as people insert more 6th starters into their rotation as the season wears on. It's pretty interesting that there is absolutely no point movement in ERA.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
I am sick of the weekly league
1) Gary Sheffield pulled an oblique muscle after 2AB's in his game vs. the angels.
2) Scoscia revealed that Figgins may have to go on the DL.
3) Wedge revealed that Hafner might have to go on the DL.
Now all of these are injury prone players, but it's total BS that I will now be missing another week's worth of AB's because of the timing of this news. I know we all have to deal with it, but it doesn't necessarily even out. I guess the lesson is that injury prone players hurt you even more in this type of league. But this seriously must be the 9th or 10th time this season someone has gotten hurt (or revealed they won't be coming back as planned) on Monday or Tuesday (Ellis and Kendrick being 2 other recent examples).
Friday, May 23, 2008
Week ending 5/23
Again, let's start with the current standings.

Pretty big changes from last week, with Caleb picking up a ton of points, and Youk and Spencer dropping a bit. Here are the weekly changes in points.

Looking at the raw weekly stats, Caleb had a huge week in saves, and one of the top performances offensively. Not a ton of strikeouts for him, but the three folks below him (Andrew, Spencer, and Mark) didn't have a ton more K's either. However, it is starting to look like Youk!!! and I are starting to pull away a bit in strikeouts.


Another interesting thing this week was that all of a sudden everyone seemed to be stealing a lot more bases. The return of Figgins couldn't have come at a much better time for Spencer, as he had Caleb pass him in SB this week, and has Mark nipping at his heels. I'm surprised that Spencer hasn't been more competitive with steals - in the preseason he looked like he would be neck and neck with me in SB, and that was before he picked up Carlos Gomez, who could steal 50 this year. Kendrick, another potential SB contributor, continues to be on the shelf with leg injuries, but could help once he gets back on the field.
Stolen Base Chart
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Incredible
Not ideal seats for a cold and windy night game with the wind whipping off the Charles and circling through the bleachers. Sitting approximately 400 feet from the pitchers mound, I witnessed what I figured I'd never see in my entire life - a no hitter.
Last year Spencer and I almost saw a no hitter by Felix Hernandex at Diasuke's Fenway debut. Felix (also on my fantasy team that year) pitched beautifully through 7 before giving up a single to JD Drew with none out in the bottom of the eighth. Even though the game wasn't going the Red Sox way, you couldn't help but feel a bit disappointed that the no-no was no more.
Flash forward 13 months later.
It was immediately clear from the start of the game that Lester was on tonight. He was taking batters deep into counts, but was not giving in. He made good pitches with 2 and 3 ball counts and kept the Royals from making any decent contact. The only well hit ball came in the 4th inning - a liner caught on the dive by Jacoby. There was another ball hit sharply, but directly at Youk. After the end of the 5th inning, the thought of the no hitter began creeping in. At the end of the 6th, a time when many people leave the stands on a cold night with a comfortable lead, the bleachers were still completely packed. The scoreboard was just there starring at you
KC 0 0 1
... could this be it?
Top of the 9th, Lester comes to the mound to pitch - 113 pitches in at this point - is received by a standing ovation, flash bulbs popping off, impossible to not feel like this is my one and only shot at seeing this happen. I felt good going into the inning. Esteban German and Tony Pena were due up - both Mendoza line hitters. Of course, Lester probably has his worst sequence of pitches of the night and walks German on 5 pitches. I'm thinking at this point if he walks another and his pitch count approaches the 130+ mark, is he going to get pulled? That would have been tragic, but how much can you really push it when the Sox are already thin at SP?
Lester of course gets out of the inning on his 130th pitch and Fenway goes nuts. Everyone jumping up and down as if we just won the pennant. Outside on Lansdowne, the celebration continues. Just an incredible scene.
It probably just an anomaly, but out of the last 6 no-hitters in the American League, 4 have been from Red Sox pitchers and 3 of those were at Fenway. Strange.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Also looking to trade OF
Quentin, Murphy, and Guillen are all available; I currently don't have the roster spots to start all of them. Thome could also be available, as I'm still looking to upgrade batting average.
Friday, May 16, 2008
The last week
Spencer had an off week offensively, only scoring 20 runs and driving in 22, but he did manage to steal 6 bases., including 3 by waiver-wire all-star Carlos Gomez. Although my team didn't pick up any points in stolen bases, I opened up a larger lead thanks to Carl Crawford (3 SB) and Ian Kinsler (4 SB, and now on pace for 45 for the season). Mark had a big week offensively, led by Sizemore (6 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Josh Hamilton (4 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI), who continues to drive in runs at a preposterous rate and is now on pace to drive in 173. A terrible pitching week, which included an increase of 0.57 in ERA and a full tenth of a baserunner in WHIP kept Mark from gaining any ground on the leaders. One caveat about the rate stats is that because I'm not keeping track of IP and AB you can't make direct comparisons between teams with the weekly changes. For example, if my batting average increased by .001 (to .252) and Spencer's dropped by .001 (to .275), he actually had a higher batting average in the last week than I did. This effect should diminish as the season progresses, but for now we can't make direct comparisons.
Another major trade
For Caleb, the deal addresses his weakness in the outfield, without giving up any players that he was currently starting every week. Damon should be good for a 10 to 15 homerun season with 20 bags, which is looking like it will be a competitive category, especially with Spencer giving up Damon. He'll contribute with runs, but he won't contribute much to RBI totals or address the problems with average. Eveland is a solid, albeit unspectacular starter, pretty much the exact opposite of Verlander. Although he won't offer lofty strikeout totals, he and Greg Smith provide solid fall back options if injuries or ineffectiveness pop up with his pitching staff. I'm not sure Blalock is worth much in this deal. With such a small sample size before he got injured (again), it is hard to say whether or not he had turned a corner, or was just having a hot streak.
For Spencer, this is another attempt to roll the dice on pitching. As I commented before, the only way Spencer is competitive this year is if his pitching staff manages to turn it around. Verlander showed last year that he has the ability to dominate, and the team keeps saying there isn't anything physically wrong with him. I did hear Keith Law say that Verlander seems to be tiring very early in games, as early as the 3rd inning, and that perhaps the IP on a young arm are starting to catch up with him, just like they did for Bonderman. Also, it isn't as if Verlander has been unlucky this year. His strikeouts are way down (5.0/9) and his walks are way up (3.7/9), leading to a QERA of 5.40, not particularly different than his current ERA of 6. However, even if Verlander doesn't turn it around, Spencer ends up with a potentially valuable keeper in Saltamacchia.
Overall, I think I like this deal better for Spencer than for Caleb. He gets the high risk / high reward gamble relatively cheaply (Damon can easily be replaced in his line-up), and I'm just not sure that Caleb is significantly better off after this trade. He could have held onto Jose Guillen and waited on a Verlander turn around. Thanks to some good work on the waiver wire he had the pitching depth to wait it out. Although the stolen bases will definitely help, but I think the price was too high for a marginal upgrade.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
For those that care
On the hitting side...
1) Once I have an equivalent number of innings to xyz team, I'll be right with them in Wins and K's
or
2) My pitchers blow and last 4 innings, therefore I have 50 IP less than everyone else.
In my case, it's most likely 2, but my K rate actually isn't so bad relative to everyone else's.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Bloggy Bloggers
We all know Barry Bonds is a bad dude. Does illegal whaling in Japan in the off-season, helps cars hit old ladies crossing the street, has a huge collection of pirated LaserDiscs. Crusty sportswriters -- I'm giving you this one. Not defending Barry's character.
Actually, most people hate Barry Bonds because he cheated, lied about it, and acts like a complete jerk off at every opportunity he gets and now is whining that nobody wants to hire him. Forgive us, for we are mere plebeians in the shadow of FJM wisdom-infinite.
I'm starting to wonder what the fuck some of these teams are thinking.
Really? Do you have to be reminded who Barry Bonds is? Would you sign Darth Vader to the Rebel force just because he is bad-ass with the light saber? Perhaps, just perhaps, ownership does not want Barry Bonds on their team because Barry Bonds is insane and a criminal. An insane criminal filled with animosity at all aspects of baseball - other players, coaches, managers, owners, the media, and, oh yeah, the fans too. He may be the most polarizing player in baseball history. But yeah, his OBP is through the roof (and we all know that in FJM land OBP is the equivalent of sex with a supermodel)!
You know how many Cardinals hit 28 home runs last year? One. His name was David Eckstein. ("David Eckstein" is what I call Albert Pujols.)
Barry Bonds Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) last year was 6.2. This is a damn good WARP, but six more wins would have placed the Cardinals at 84-78 and still a game behind the Cubs for the division... and that's assuming that Barry's defense would not have lost them any games.
How many 43-year-old outfielders OPS-ed 1.045 last year? Or .999 the year before, at age 42?
I get it now... FJM thinks Barry Bonds is an ageless baseball god. His stats are good, I think we all can agree on this.
Cool. He's a jerk. We get it. Someone should probably sign him, though, because when he plays baseball he's damn good at it.
Somebody should not sign Barry Bonds. I will lose all respect for that team, the game of baseball, humanity, etc. if Barry Bonds is signed. FJM has jumped off the deep end here. I understand that their stitch is to use statistics, logic, and good research to debunk many of the idiots writing about baseball, but this goes too far. Maybe, just maybe, when somebody fundamentally alters the integrity of the game we should look beyond their statistical contribution to a team. When an employee of a profession tarnishes the image, reputation, and credibility of their profession that employee should not expect to be rehired. Wouldn't happen in any other industry. Does FJM have no moral compass?
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Fausto on the Block
Blockbuster
The problem I see in the deal is that Spencer trades two great players, Manny and Young for one player having a great year (not sure Dice-K is an "ace" yet) and one player having a terrible year. Too many eggs being placed in one bucket for my liking.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Down goes Wells.
I was already in need of an outfielder, and it looks like I'm more so now.
I've got a bit of a glut of decent SPs, so I'm gonna go ahead and put all of them on the trading block, including Beckett. Now's your chance to get the best fantasy pitcher in the AL. Or to buy low on Verlander. Or to grab the amazing Daniel Cabrera and Cliff Lee. Or the eversteady and underrated Javier Vazquez. Or Joe Blanton, who I don't even like. Or the young Greg Smith. Or Nick Adenhart, who kinda sucks. All I require is players with OF eligibility.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Delmon Young
VORP
-10.9 Justin Verlander
-9.8 C.C. Sabathia
-8.3 Robinson Cano
-2.9 Delmon Young
Good days and bad
http://picasaweb.google.com/wgmcdowell/YouThrowLikeAGirl/photo?authkey=7_cOP5qSYq4#5198464398334026210
http://picasaweb.google.com/wgmcdowell/YouThrowLikeAGirl/photo?authkey=7_cOP5qSYq4#5198464406923960818
Luke is easily leading the pack in both WHIP and ERA, with all of his pitchers, with the exception of Brian Bannister, pitching extremely well. Halladay and Felix have been at the upper ends of their expectations, and waiver pickup Ervin Santana has been spectacular.
In the past week or so, both Caleb and I have each had some very, very good days. From 4/30 to 5/2 my pitching staff managed a run of good games that took a full 0.5 off my ERA and 0.1 off my WHIP. Yesterday, with only two starters pitching, Caleb managed to take 0.2 off his ERA and 0.05 off his WHIP.
Spencer, on the other hand, was not quite so lucky. With three starters imploding on one day, his WHIP rose from 1.38 to 1.45, and his ERA jumped an incredible 0.56, from 4.66 to 5.20.
Even with Luke's considerable lead in the pitching categories, a blow up on par with Spencer's would put him right back in the pack for ERA and take away most of his lead for WHIP. Fortunately for Luke, it is pretty difficult to field a staff that pitches 18 2/3 innings, giving up 42 baserunners and 24 earned runs.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
OK this isn't even funny anymore
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
W...T.....F
Kendrick continues to feel soreness in his hamstring. "He felt good to a certain point," manager Mike Scioscia said. "It's moving in the right direction, but we're not quite there. He's going to be evaluated today to see how it feels."
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The promised pretty pictures
Right now, homeruns are also very tight. Early on it looked like Caleb my run away with the category, but he hasn't been able to build on his lead since I started keeping track of the stats. The middle of the pack is extremely close right now, with 4 teams within a few homeruns of each other.
Let me know if those links work for you, of if they're protected somehow...
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Injuries
Monday, April 28, 2008
Too many awesome outfielders
Manny
Sheffield
Ordonez
Damon
Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Carlos Gomez
I need starting pitching. Closers or Middle infielders are also interesting.
Potential rule changes
1. Putting all free agents on waivers for a portion of the week.
Looking back to Mark's post when I snagged Mark Lowe before he had a chance to when Putz went on the DL, should we consider putting free agents on waivers every Monday? The waiver period could last Monday through Thursday or Friday, which would limit the number of speed based grabs, but still leave plenty of time for people to pick up players right away on the weekend and plug them in to the lineup for the next week. Right now, waiver priority is kind of meaningless, and a weekly lineup league seems like the perfect fit for putting all free agents on waivers.
2. Removing keeper time limits.
I can't remember exactly how we decided to have the the baseball system work. Did we decide on three keeper years (a total of 4 years) with escalating draft picks? I'm proposing removing the time limit, but keeping the escalating draft pick. That will keep the draft move "level" from year to year (e.g. no huge talent influx a couple years from now), and allow people to keep players they really like.
Daily stat updates
And finally, who would like to set the over/under date on when Luke decides to punt saves and stolen bases?
Injuries and Weekly Leagues
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Another discussion topic
Alright everyone, feel free to disparage my player, then attempt to trade for him for pennies on the dollar.
Bill's right,
Salty's up and is the official backup catcher now, and it's estimated that he'll start 2-3 times a week, at most, for now. I drafted Pierzynski to get me through until Salty was called up, and he's done an admiral job of it: 11R, 3HR, 12RBI, .319. But he's AJ Pierzynski. He hit .260 last year. Do I stick with him for now and hope he doesn't regress anytime soon, or do I take my chances on limited starts from Salty?
Friday, April 25, 2008
This blog is woefully under used
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Who is for real?
We've got Caleb and Youuk leading the league right now by a decent margin. Caleb has been strong across the board with very strong hitting and decent pitching. Youuk leads in HR's but is last in RBI's (strange combo) but is really strongest in pitching, where he leads every category but saves (where he is once again last).
So far, Youuk's rotation of King Felix, Halladay, Bannister, Marcum, and Ervin Santana have been absolutely lights out. Meanwhile Carlos Pena and Raul Ibanez are slugging out of their minds. Can Youuk have pulled off an improbable one season turn around?
As for Caleb, he's nicely overcome Ortiz's dismal start, and is benefitting early from Vernon Wells and Alex Gordon quick starts. These strike me as potentially sustainable, and Caleb's pitching numbers should get better as Beckett and Verlander settle in.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the league, Mark is getting any innings at all from his injured staff - he's got Harden, Putz, Slowey, Bedard, and Garza all missing time - pretty incredible. It should be a great staff when healthy, but will injury problems plague them all year long? And how long can MZ hold out before dropping some of the marginal players like Slowey?
On the AAA legacy front, clearly pitching is the problem that everyone saw coming, and the legacy's young pitchers have not disappointed. Not helping are problems from closers Borwoski and Street. To have any hope of winning this year, AAA may need to win every hitting category, and hope for a strong second half from his young staff.
Not quite sure what to make of Andrew's team, which just says mediocre to me through and through. We've got Shields and Carmona on the staff, but then we're pitching Manny del Carmen and Jon Lester. Abreu and Vlad are off to nice starts, and Cabrera will undoubtedly pick it up, but Lugo and Varitek will drag this lineup down. Perhaps a few too many sox on this team?
Berkeley Hoboes, destined to win it all, has seen some stumbling from Sabathia but has enjoyed nice value from Greinke and Sherill. An 0/26 contribution from Travis Buck hasn't helped things, but BJ Upton is looking like he could have a huge year. Looking up and down the Hoboes lineup is pretty scary - there is a lot of potential there, and if a few of them blow up, Bill could run away with a lot of offensive categories. Bill may be in an even better position if Betancourt takes over for Borowski. I'm not even sure if injuries will de-rail this team, there is a lot of depth here.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Truly Hilarious
Reyes may have been out celebrating his 38th birthday, which was Thursday. The newspaper reports that Reyes "fell against a ceramic pot inside the bar" and thought that someone had pushed him, at which point he "began exchanging words" with a patron who eventually "punched Reyes in the face." In a news release, police said that Reyes then "began to spit blood on the people in the area and began to swing his arms about," at which point an officer reportedly twice used a taser to subdue him.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Pair of Sox tickets for sale
As I said, they're for the 5/1 game at 7 PM vs Toronto. They're Standing Room Only tickets for the 3rd base pavilion. The special friends-and-family price is $68 for the pair, which is what Kate paid for two $25 seats and the "Convenience Fee" and "Transaction subtotal." They're print at home tickets, so no shipping!
Let me know if you or anyone you know wants them.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Harden scratched from start
http://disabledlist.blogspot.com/2008/04/rich-harden-airplane-injury-methinks.html
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Remember Bronson Arroyo?
What I wanna know is, how does he make his acoustic guitar play that awesome electric solo?
Thursday, April 3, 2008
it could happen...
Monday, March 31, 2008
The Massacre Has Begun
Oh baby.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Manny's Moments
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
My team's deficiencies
Things don't look to improve for about a week either. Having two games and then a week off is a complete tease.
Monday, March 24, 2008
FINALLY!
BASEBAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL